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The Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) face off Sunday in the AFC Championship Game with kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium set for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Bengals vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
This will be the 2nd straight season the Bengals and Chiefs have met in the AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. Cincinnati won last year’s AFC title game in overtime 27-24 as 7-point underdogs. The Bengals are 3-0 overall against the Chiefs with Joe Burrow at QB — winning all 3 as underdogs in the 3 matchups that happened in the calendar year of 2022.
Cincinnati beat the Buffalo Bills 27-10 last week as 6-point road underdogs. The Bengals have won 10 straight, going 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS). The Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 last week, failing to cover as 10-point favorites. The Chiefs have won 6 straight, but are 2-4 ATS during that stretch.
Outside of the budding rivalry between the Bengals and Chiefs, the biggest storyline heading into this game is the health status of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jaguars. He was a full participant in practice this week and is confirmed to play Sunday.
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Bengals at Chiefs odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bengals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Chiefs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bengals +2 (-110) | Chiefs -2 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Bengals at Chiefs key injuries
Bengals
- OG Alex Kappa (ankle) out
- OT Jonah Williams (knee) out
Chiefs
- TE Travis Kelce (back) questionable
- WR Mecole Hardman (pelvis) questionable
- WR Justin Watson (illness) questionable
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Bengals at Chiefs picks and predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 31, Bengals 27
Moneyline
The last time these teams met in Week 13, the Chiefs were missing LG Joe Thuney — their best-graded pass-blocking offensive lineman by PFF — while Kelce committed an uncharacteristic fumble and kicker Harrison Butker missed a crucial field goal in the 4th quarter.
This time around, the Chiefs have a healthy offensive line while the Bengals are missing 2 starting offensive linemen. The Chiefs have also appeared to clean up their turnover and kicking issues — they have committed just 1 offensive turnover in their last 4 games, while Butker hasn’t missed a kick since Week 15 (although 1 was blocked due to poor protection).
Even with a less-healthy Mahomes, the Chiefs should be able to finally take care of business against Cincinnati at home in this grudge match.
LEAN CHIEFS (-125).
Against the spread
There’s no need to bet the spread since the moneyline pays out close to the same. This could easily end up a 1-point contest, so its best to just pick a winner and stick with it.
AVOID the spread and bet the moneyline instead.
Over/Under
In the last 3 games between the Bengals and Chiefs, the point totals were 65, 51 and 51.
Even with Mahomes not at full strength he was able to lead the Chiefs to victory last week, and it’s not the 1st time in his career he has successfully played through an injury. The Bengals, meanwhile, have put up at least 27 points on the Chiefs every time they’ve played them. Barring a surprising defensive effort, this one should hit the over.
LEAN OVER 48 (-112).
Bonus props
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase ANYTIME TD (-105)
Chase has 11 TDs in 14 games this season, including 5 TDs in his last 6 games. He also has 1 TD in each of the Bengals’ postseason wins this year. Chase didn’t score a TD against the Chiefs earlier this season, but did have 7 receptions and 97 yards. The Chiefs generally have trouble containing Chase, who has a 417 yards and 4 TDs against them in 3 games. Expect Burrow to find Chase in the end zone at least once this Sunday.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce ANYTIME TD (-110)
Kelce has 14 TDs in 18 games this season. He went on a cold streak from Weeks 13-18, but put up 2 TDs against the Jaguars last week. Kelce has been a star during the playoffs in his career, scoring 14 TDs in 16 career playoff games, including at least 1 TD in 7 of his last 8 playoff games. Kelce had 95 yards and 1 TD against Cincinnati in last year’s AFC Championship Game. Mahomes will lean on Kelce again in this matchup.
More NFL Championship Games coverage
- NFC: Eagles at 49ers picks and predictions
- Best bets: Two-team parlay | Player props | SBW staff picks
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