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Super Wild Card Weekend is over and it’s on to the Divisional Round. Less games mean more difficult choices for our parlay.
After looking at Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL Divisional Round odds, here is a “Let’s make some money” NFL parlay bet to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid off a bye week is as sure a bet as they come, but it may not make the cut this week.
After an impressive 31-14 victory as 2.5-point road favorites Monday at Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers and QB Tom Brady, it will be fun to see if the Dallas Cowboys can continue moving on or if they come back down to earth in San Francisco.
And what can we make of the New York Giants? They are the best team in the NFL against the spread this season at 14-4, but can they cover the number this week at the Philadelphia Eagles and a healthy QB Jalen Hurts?
This weekend should be a fun slate of games, so let’s get started in putting together a winning parlay as we watch the events unfold.
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NFL Divisional Round: Let’s make some money parlay
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated on Thursday at 1:49 a.m. ET. All games ET.
Leg 1: Jaguars at Chiefs UNDER 52.5 (-108) – Saturday 4:30 p.m. (NBC)
Under Reid, the Chiefs are 54-38-1 (58.1%) going Under in games at Arrowhead Stadium, according to the Action Network. When the Chiefs are 7-point home favorites or more, a sample of 46 games, the Under hits 69% of the time. This is an incredible stat which shows the ability of teams to keep games relatively low scoring despite the contention the Chiefs just blow out opponents. In most cases, their games remain rather close, much like the Chiefs’ 27-17 home victory over the Jaguars in Week 10 with an O/U line of 51.5 and Kansas City pushing as a 10-point favorite.
I also like the +9 spread with Jacksonville as the Jaguars should have covered the regular-season game if not for 2 missed field goals by Jaguars k Riley Patterson. While the Chiefs are still one of the top teams in the NFL, the Jaguars have been improving all season long and are peaking at the right time for this matchup. UNDER 52.5 (-108) is the way to start this parlay.
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Leg 2: BILLS -5.5 (-112) vs. Bengals – Sunday 3 p.m. (CBS)
Bot teams survived scares during the Wild Card Round.
In a rematch of the Monday night game that wasn’t in Week 17, the Bengals will visit Western New York for this one — something they wouldn’t have had to do if they had won the original showdown.
While Buffalo fans should give Cincinnati a nice reception to start the game, by the end, they’ll be cheering the Bills onto victory.
The Bengals will be missing 3 starters on the offensive line in LT Jonah Williams (knee), RG Alex Cappa (ankle) and RT La’el Collins (torn ACL, out for season). The absence of the trio will limit the amount of time QB Joe Burrow will have to find WRs, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and the amount of room RB Joe Mixon will have to run the ball.
Despite giving up 31 points to the Miami Dolphins in a 3-point victory last weekend, the Bills allowed just 231 yards to the Miami offense. With the offensive line for Cincinnati in shambles, another stellar showing will be in store for the Buffalo defense at home.
With the Bengals struggling to stay on the field, this will give the Bills offense possessions to score and tilt the matchup into its favor. Five and half points is a lot for this matchup, but it’s still giving the Bills slightly less value than they deserve. If this number stays under 6.5, I like the Bills ATS.
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Leg 3: 49ERS -3.5 (-113) vs. Cowboys – Sunday 6:30 p.m. (FOX)
Dallas dominated Tampa Bay Monday night. The final 31-14 score was not indicative of the actual game. It was far more lop-sided, and the books are giving the Cowboys a lot of credit that they can accomplish the same thing against the 49ers Sunday.
Despite missing 5 games, Dallas QB Dak Prescott threw a league-high 15 interceptions in the regular season (tied with Houston Texans QB Davis Mills), but he accounted for 5 TDs and 0 picks against Tampa Bay. With 4 passing TDs and 1 rushing, Prescott, who was not in trouble all night, had the finest game of his career. Duplicating this against a top defense in San Francisco will be difficult.
49ers DE Nick Bosa, the leader for Defensive Player of the Year with a league-best 18.5 sacks, will be all over Prescott in this matchup. Bosa will force Prescott out of the pocket, causing Dallas turnovers which were not there Monday night.
San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey had 119 rushing yards on 15 carries and 2 receptions for 14 yards and a TD in San Francisco’s 41-23 home win vs. the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Round — the 49ers covered as 10-point home favorites. San Francisco trailed 17-16 at the half but took the lead for good midway in the 3rd quarter on a 1-yard TD run by QB Brock Purdy.
Purdy connected with RB Eli Mitchell for a 7-yard TD pass and WR Deebo Samuel for a 74-yard TD in the 4th quarter to put the game away. The production of both backs along with Purdy having 2 or more passing TDs in every game he has played will allow the 49ers to pull away once again Sunday and cover this small number of 3.5.
Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $58.72 (ticket pays $68.72).
Try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator.
Leg 4-*: Giants at Eagles OVER 48 (-109) – Saturday 8:15 p.m. (FOX)
*-If you want to add a 4th play to this parlay:
The last time these NFC East rivals played with both at full health, the Eagles prevailed 48-22 as 7.5-point road favorites in Week 14. They met again in Week 18 with the Eagles winning at home 22-16, but the G-Men had nothing to play for as they were locked into road playoff game. The Giants, who covered as 17-point underdogs, sat all of their starters, yet they still managed to score 16 points on the Eagles, who were trying to win in hopes of getting the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye week.
This game will be closer to the Week 14 meeting. The Eagles’ Hurts returned to the field for the 2nd Giants meeting after missing 2 games with a shoulder injury and is considered 100% healthy for this one. Philly is also expected to have RT Lane Johnson back after he missed the final 2 regular-season games with a groin injury that will likely require offseason surgery. His presence will allow RBs Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott room to run against a New York defense, which ranked 27th in run defense allowing 144.2 yards per game.
The Eagles offense averaged 147.6 rushing yards per game, which ranked 5th in the NFL. In the Week 14 win, Sanders ran for 144 yards and 2 TDs on 17 carries. This type of day is not out of the realm of possibility again. With Hurts healthy, his ability to run will also open up the pass game for WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to also have big days.
With 5 of the 6 Wild Card Games going Over their totals, the sportsbooks have over-corrected a bit and this weekend might be full of some Under winners. However, this one wasn’t adjusted enough. New York QB Daniel Jones — who threw for 301 yards and 2 TDs with 78 rushing yards in last weekend’s 31-24 victory at the Minnesota Vikings — will do his part for the Giants, while Hurts will lead the Eagles down the field. There will be points in the City of Brotherly Love Saturday.
Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $121.76 (ticket pays $131.76).
More NFL Divisional Round coverage
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