The No. 19 Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1, 2-0 AAC) and SMU Mustangs (3-3, 1-1) play Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cincinnati vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bearcats have picked up 5 consecutive wins since opening with a 31-24 loss at Arkansas Sept. 3. While it has won 5 in a row, Cincinnati is just 2-2-1 ATS during the win streak while the Over has a slight 3-2-1 edge overall on the season.
The Mustangs held off Navy last weekend by a 40-34 count — their third time going for 40 or more points this season. Despite the win, SMU has failed to cover in 5 straight games, and last Saturday’s Over was just its second in 6 games overall.
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Cincinnati at SMU odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cincinnati -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | SMU +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cincinnati -3.5 (-102) | SMU +3.5 (-122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Cincinnati at SMU picks and predictions
Prediction
Cincinnati 31, SMU 26
Moneyline
CINCINNATI (-165) isn’t terribly priced out of line if you want to play it straight up and forget about the points, especially since a 3 and a hook isn’t a terribly attractive number for a favorite.
Against the spread
CINCINNATI -3.5 (-102) is still worth playing despite the unsavory number, but go lightly.
While UC has not fared well against the number on the road, SMU is ice-cold in a lot of areas, too. The Mustangs have failed to cover the past 5 in a row and they’re 0-4 ATS in the past 4 conference games and 0-4 ATS in their past 4 at home. The Mustangs are also 1-4 ATS in the previous 5 against teams with an overall winning mark.
You’ll be bucking a trend with the Bearcats who are 0-3-1 ATS in the past 4 on the road, but Cincinnati is an impressive 3-1-1 ATS in the past 5 AAC games and 4-1 ATS in the previous 5 meetings with SMU.
Over/Under
UNDER 59.5 (-120) is the lean here, but go lightly.
The Under has cashed in 6 straight in this series, including last season’s 48-14 win in favor of the Bearcats.
The Under is also 6-2-1 in the past 9 on the road for UC and 4-1 in its previous 5 AAC games.
For the Mustangs, the Over is 5-1 in the previous 6 contests in Dallas, but the Under is 4-1 in the past 5 against winning teams.
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