Analyzing Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson’s 2023 fantasy football ADP and where to target him in fantasy drafts.
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Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson heads into his 2nd NFL season, and things could be drastically different for the 24-year-old pass catcher. Watson burst onto the scene, basically out of necessity, due to several injuries. He took advantage of the opportunity, and is now one of the top pass catchers for the Packers heading into 2023.
However, and this is a big however, Watson could see a drop in production and/or fantasy value due to forces beyond his control. Last season he was catching the ball from future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers, who has moved on to the New York Jets. Now, QB Jordan Love is his signal caller, and it remains to be seen if the duo will have anywhere close to the same rapport.
The good news for Watson, and his potential fantasy managers, is that he sits atop the depth chart along with WRs Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Watson, based on last season’s breakout performance and projections for 2023, is the top Green Bay receiver to pick.
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Christian Watson’s ADP: 48.07
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)
Watson has been going off the board as early as Round 3, and mostly in Round 4 in redraft leagues. For me, personally, that’s quite a bit high. I just don’t like the downgrade at QB from Rodgers to Love. I think there is going to be a learning curve, as the team tries to reinvent itself on offense, and I can definitely see the Packers being a little more ground-based as Love cuts his teeth as the full-time starter.
Among wide receivers, Watson’s ADP in redraft leagues is 20th, behind the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins (33.55), the Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen (36.04) and the Cleveland Browns’ Amari Cooper (41.97). Watson is being picked ahead of the Tennessee Titans’ DeAndre Hopkins (48.82) and the Chicago Bears’ DJ Moore (52.93).
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Christian Watson’s 2022 stats
Games: 14
Receptions | targets: 41 | 66
Receiving yards: 611
Receiving touchdowns: 7
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Where should you draft Watson?
While Watson is the No. 1 wideout negotiating the turf at Lambeau Field this season, I think there are still a lot of caution flags for fantasy managers. Watson proved he can be a very effective pass catcher and productive player in the NFL, but he also had one of the best to ever do it throwing to him.
We’ll see if Watson jells as well with Love. The early returns from the preseason are that the drop-off from Rodgers to Love might not be as precipitous, but it’s difficult to judged based on exhibition games. Once the games get underway for real, we’ll know what we’re going to get from Love. And then we’ll be able to properly evaluate Watson. Of course, then it’s too late for those who drafted Watson for fantasy purposes.
I would never take him in Round 4 in redraft leagues, although I certainly love his value and upside for many years to come, and as a dynasty player, he is an outstanding fantasy option.
If you’re able to rack up 2 stud receivers in the 1st 4 rounds, and you grab Watson as a flex option or WR3 in Round 5, then go for it. If you plan to depend upon him as a WR2, I wish you all the luck in the world. In PPR formats, Round 5 is fine, but again, I’d prefer him as a flex or WR3 rather than WR2.
Maybe Love is the next Rodgers, and someone was saying the same thing about Green Bay fantasy receivers when No. 12 took the reins from Brett Favre back in 2008. But I just think Watson is going to start slow, and there is going to be an inevitable adjustment period. Personally, I’d let it be someone else’s worry.
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