(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at how the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Kansas City Chiefs do not have a ton of problems as 2020 beckons, but two numbers loom large: 15, and 40).
In the “Metrics that Matter” series, we examine a statistic for each team from the 2019 season and outline why that metric is critical to the team’s fortunes in 2020, and how the organization is looking to improve in that area. For example, we looked at the Philadelphia Eagles and their yardage after the catch numbers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and why protecting Tom Brady matters, the Los Angeles Rams and Jared Goff’s production on play action plays, and why Daniel Jones needs to stop fumbling the football.
We have even flipped the script during this series. For example, we examined Russell Wilson’s sack totals from 2019 – 48, which tied him with Matt Ryan and Kyler Murray for the most in the league – and outlined how his performance when pressured makes that number not so critical to Seattle’s chances in 2020.
But what can you say about the defending Super Bowl Champions? Unlike the 31 other teams, most things broke in their favor in 2019. Any year that ends with you hoisting the Lombardi Trophy is a good season.
Of course the offense grabs the headlines, and with good reason. The organization has assembled an incredible array of talent on that side of the football, beginning with Patrick Mahomes. But outside of the quarterback, the team has weapons such as Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman to target in the passing game. The offensive line is a very solid group as well, including right tackle Mitchell Schwartz who is one of the game’s premier players at the position. Even running back, which was handled by an array of players in 2019, might be upgraded in 2020, with the addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Defensively, the Chiefs took a big step forward from 2018. What was once their Achilles’ Heel was a much-improved unit, and the Chiefs’ defense was a top ten unit in scoring defense, allowing just 19.3 points per game, seventh-best in the league. They were tough on opposing passers as well. Kansas City allowed opposing quarterbacks an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of just 5.2, which was the fifth-best number posted by a defense in 2019. The New England Patriots were the best in the league, holding opposing passers to an ANY/A of just 3.5.
For a point of reference, in 2019 an ANY/A of 5.2 would have placed a quarterback 29th in the league, just behind Joe Flacco and just ahead of Andy Dalton. So, to look at it this way, the Chiefs’ defense turned opposing passers into an awkward mashup of Flacco and Dalton.
We have the technology…
(Look, dear reader, the 1980s were a wild time to be alive).
But with the Chiefs, everything eventually comes back to the offense. If you want to boil things down to a number, here’s one that matters for Kansas City: 15
As long as they have Patrick Mahomes, they’ve got a shot.
While he might be the game’s most exciting quarterback, he is downright cheap at this point in time. Mahomes will be making $2.7 million in 2020, consisting of a base salary of $825,000 and a roster bonus of $1,969,905. The Chiefs have already picked up his fifth-year option for 2021, which will pay him a base salary of $24,837,000.
Until that fifth-year option kicks in, Mahomes is woefully underpaid. That contract puts him behind such players as Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Marcus Mariota and even Taysom Hill in terms of the total value of the contract, according to Over the Cap.
But the Chiefs are already talking about a long-term extension for their star quarterback. Back in May team chairman Clark Hunt indicated that the organization will start extension talks with him this summer. Hunt stated that “[Mahomes] wants to be a Kansas City Chief for life, and that’s our mentality as well. We want him to play his entire career in Kansas City, and that’s what we’re going to be shooting for.”
But at what cost?
According to a report from last January, the team was planning to offer Mahomes a record-setting contract that would play him at least $40 million a season, making him the highest-paid player in league history. Right now the aforementioned Wilson holds that title, earning $35 million per year with the Seahawks.
Is Mahomes worth that kind of astronomical number?
Yes.
By almost any metric, Mahomes has put up elite numbers in both of his first two seasons as a starter. In 2018 he led the league with an ANY/A of 8.89, and threw for 50 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions. Even those who were huge fans of his coming out of Texas Tech assumed he would be making mistakes early in his career. Only 12 interceptions is what even his biggest fans thought he would accomplish in his first year as a starter.
Last season, Mahomes did miss a pair of regular season games, but he still posted an ANY/A of 8.38, throwing for 26 touchdowns against just five – FIVE – interceptions. His interception ratio of just 1.0% was tied for second best in the league, tying him with Wilson and behind only Aaron Rodgers.
Diving deeper into numbers, Mahomes posted an Expected Points Added per Play of 0.32, which was second-best in the league (behind only Lamar Jackson).
Oh, and he delivered a Lombardi Trophy.
Now, some might try and make the case that Mahomes benefits from the talent assembled around him, as well as the offensive minds of Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy. While that might be true to an extent, the NFL had a full offseason to figure out what the Chiefs were running on offense, and if anything that unit took a step forward in 2019 over their 2018 numbers. Mahomes, in particular, cut down on the interceptions and the game seemed to be slowing down for him.
Remember back in March, when the internet exploded in response to Mahomes saying that he “didn’t understand how to read defenses until like halfway through last year”? Sure you do. That generated a ton of buzz, but what Mahomes was drilling down on was how veteran quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Drew Brees can pick up on little indicators from a defense in the pre-snap phase of a play. Subtleties such as a defender’s feet that might show he is blitzing, or a cornerback’s eyes trained on the QB and not his receiver, which might indicate a zone coverage scheme.
So there is a chance that the 2020 version of Mahomes will be even better than the 2019 version.
Take it away, Teddy KGB:
