There are times at Touchdown Wire when our job is to dig deep into the stories, tape, and stats, hopefully to bring you a viewpoint you haven’t seen before, or to present something in a different way.
Then, there are other times when it is our job to beat everybody over the head (never literally, of course) with the most obvious thing possible — because sometimes, the obvious thing is the one true thing, and the only thing to which you really need to give your focus.
This articles focuses far more on the latter than the former, but it’s incredibly important for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Because if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t give cornerback Carlton Davis actual safety help against Chiefs speed receiver Tyreek Hill in Super Bowl LV next Sunday, it will distinctly reduce their chances of winning the game.
Hill is a nightmare to cover anyway, of course, and the specter of tight end Travis Kelce anywhere else on the formation present impossible scenarios for any defensive coordinator: How do you “double-one” on both Hill and Kelce and keep track of all the Chiefs’ other weapons?
How did Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles accept that challenge in Week 12, when Kansas City beat Tampa Bay, 27-24? Against Hill, and with Davis as his No. 1 cover guy, Bowles called up a lot of single-high stuff, leaving Davis on an island or with late safety help (which equates to no safety help against Hill), and Davis had the worst game of his life. Per Pro Football Focus, he allowed 12 catches on 15 targets for 236 yards, 50 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 158.3 — which is a perfect passer rating. Hill sliced Davis up like a tomato on a 3:00 a.m. Ginsu knife commercial, and if that happens again in the Super Bowl… well, it’s not going to be Davis’ fault. Because the Buccaneers should know better by now.
Patrick Mahomes, who was the primary beneficiary of Bowles’ generosity, certainly knew better. This is what he said right after the game:
“I don’t think it was necessarily a match-up. It was man coverage with no one over the top and so we don’t get that a lot especially with that guy and [Hill’s] ability, and whenever we do, we try to take advantage of it.”
Well, there’s your insult added to injury. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Bucs had Davis in Cover-1 on one of Hill’s touchdowns, and Cover-3 on the other two. Doesn’t really matter in the end if there isn’t a bracket. The other problem in the Week 12 matchup for the Bucs, as Mahomes pointed out, was receiver Sammy Watkins creating other openings.
“Sammy being able to work the middle of the field even when he wasn’t getting the ball, he’s getting our guys open. As well as at the beginning of the game, instead of that safety going over the top with Tyreek, they were going over the top with Travis, and that’s just a problem the defenses have when they go against us, we have so many weapons. It’s hard to try to take away one guy and go to other guys. This week it was Tyreek’s week, but I’m sure other guys will make big plays the rest of the season.”
Touchdown No. 1 was a 75-yarder with 6:49 left in the first quarter, and you can see how the speed discrepancy is a problem. This is not to malign Davis — he’s an above-average cornerback for the most part. But without help over the top, this is going to be very much like stealing for the Chiefs.
Touchdown No. 2 came with 1:32 left in the first quarter — a crosser for Hill out of what our good friend Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup recently called the most dangerous receiver positioning in football — Kelce as the “Y” iso to one side of the field, and Hill as the third option in the inside slot to the other side.
Mission impossible: How the Buffalo Bills might defend the toughest formation in football
This is generally uncoverable either way, and more so when your cornerback falls down.
Touchdown No. 3 came with 7:00 left in the third quarter. This is Davis trying to hold inside position, Hill finding just enough space, and Mahomes making yet another of his “Oh, he did it again” throws.
“We’ve got to cover tighter and we’ve got to get home faster,” Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said the day after the game. “We can’t let a guy in man coverage have 3.7 [or] 3.8 seconds to throw a ball – it’s got to come out in three or less. We can cover for 10 to 12 yards, but we can’t give them that much time. Again, Patrick [Mahomes] is an unbelievable guy and he just keeps backpedaling. He was backpedaling to his left for about 9.5 yards and then throws a dime. We don’t see him every week, but I think tighter coverage – against the Rams it was tighter coverage – but when we’re playing man, we have to get home.”
Yes, the pass rush is one thing, but again, you’re talking about Patrick Mahomes here. The usual rules do not apply.
As for Davis’ confidence?
“I think Carlton – he had a tough assignment when we were playing man,” Arians said. “He knew it. He got beat on a couple of really good throws and a double move. I don’t think he will ever lose any confidence. He is one of those guys that goes to the next play.”
For the Bucs and Carlton Davis in Super Bowl LV, the next play is the one where there is some sort of infrastructure to help him deal with the most uncoverable passing game in the NFL. Without that, all the confidence in the world won’t matter at all.