Tag: Chicago Cubs odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers on Opening Day Thursday at Wrigley Field with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Brewers won last season’s series with the Cubs 15-4, including an 8-2 record in Chicago, and outscored the Cubs 124-67.

Milwaukee won the National League Central with a 95-67 record, but was eliminated in the NLDS 3-1 by the eventual champion Atlanta Braves.

Chicago finished fourth with a 71-91 record after winning the NL Central in 3 of the previous 5 seasons, which included a 2016 World Series victory.

Brewers at Cubs: Projected starters

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks

Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young, finishing 11-5 in just 167.0 IP, but he led the majors in ERA (2.43) and K/9 (12.6).

  • 2021 vs. Cubs: 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA (20.0 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 36 K and 3 BB in 3 starts.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 2.87 FIP with .220 batting average (BA), .291 wOBA, .385 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 39.4 K% and 92.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 66 plate appearances (PA).

Hendricks is Chicago’s Opening Day starter for the third time. He was 14-7 last season in 181.0 IP, but with a career-worst ERA (4.77) and WHIP (1.35).

  • 2021 vs. Brewers: 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA (22.0 IP, 15 ER), 28 H, 19 K and 5 BB in 4 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 3.23 FIP with a .242 BA, .291 wOBA, .369 xSLG, 23.3 K% and 85.7 mph EV in 253 PA.

Brewers at Cubs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Cubs +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (-110) | Cubs +1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Brewers at Cubs prediction and picks

Prediction

Brewers 7, Cubs 2

Money line

BET the BREWERS (-175) for 1 unit because they beat the Cubs (+140) in 9 of their final 10 meetings last season and Chicago didn’t make any notable upgrades this offseason.

Furthermore, Burnes was dominant versus the Cubs in 2021 and the Brewers have won 7 consecutive games as road favorites with Burnes on the mound.

Also, Chicago was terrible against right-handed pitching last season, ranking 23rd in wRC+, 19th in wOBA and last in BB/K versus righties.

Lastly, even if Hendricks gives the Cubs a quality outing, Milwaukee’s lineup can certainly rally back against this awful Chicago bullpen. Cubs relievers were 28th in WAR, 22nd in xFIP and 25th in home runs allowed per 9 innings as a platoon.

The BREWERS (-175) are expensive, but are the right side because they have a decisive edge over the Cubs (+140).

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN BREWERS -1.5 (-110) since they had the fourth-best ATS record in division games last season at 45-31 RL and the Cubs +1.5 (-110) were just 35-41 RL against NL Central foes.

However, I’d prefer to stick with Milwaukee’s ML since the strength of the Brewers is their pitching and their lineup significantly underperformed in 2021.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 10.5 (-125) because I’m expecting a bounce-back season from an otherwise solid Hendricks and Burnes has some of the best stuff in baseball.

That said, this total is high and it feels like the oddsmakers are begging for Under 10.5 (+100) money. My biggest concern with an UNDER 10.5 (-125) is the weather forecast that predicts 20-plus mph winds blowing out to center field.

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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (64-75) host the Cincinnati Reds (73-66) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago upset Cincy in the series opener 4-3. The Cubs came out the gate with a 3-run bottom of the 1st before the Reds tied the game with a 3-run top of the 6th but Chicago 1B Frank Schwindel‘s go-ahead RBI single in the bottom of the 8th was the difference-maker.

Season series: Reds lead 10-7.

LHP Wade Miley gets the nod for the Reds. Miley is 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA (148 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 12 H, 1 BB and 2 K vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday.
  • Miley is 2-0 against Chicago this season with a 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 1.52 WHIP and 1.7 K/BB in four starts.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster (120 PA): 2.58 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .284 wOBA, .338 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 15.8 K% and 85.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Adrian Sampson is Chicago’s projected starter. Sampson is 0-1 with a 1.59 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 2 ER) with 10 H, 2 BB and 11 K across one start and four relief appearances.

  • Sampson got a no-decision in Chicago’s 7-1 win in Cincy Aug. 18 in his only start this season. He had 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 2 K in the outing.

Reds at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Cubs +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-105) | Cubs +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Cubs 6, Reds 5

Money line (ML)

If anyone has guesses as to how the tanking Chicago Cubs are on a seven-game win streak I’m all ears. Chicago moved its championship core and three best relief pitchers at the trade deadline but have been three games better over the past 20 than a Cincy team in the NL Wild Card hunt.

Over the past two weeks, Chicago’s lineup is in the top 10 of wRC+, wOBA and WAR while Cincy’s has ranked 24th or worse in each metric. Also, we are getting a substantial “line freeze” in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the cash wagered is on the Reds but their price hasn’t budged since the opening number. It’s pretty sketchy that four of five bettors are taking Cincy but the line hasn’t moved. Hmmmmm.

Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS (+133) for a tiny wager because Chicago’s run line has more value in my opinion.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the CUBS +1.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of their money line because of the aforementioned analysis.

We have the same “line freeze” situation with the run line as the money line market. Also, Cincy’s bullpen has been its biggest question mark all season. Chicago’s lineup could certainly “sneak in the backdoor” and cover against the Reds relievers if this game doesn’t go the way we expect it.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the UNDER 9.5 (-115) because both sides of the market are hammering the Under for reasons I’m not very clear on. Since I cannot find any Under-friendly angles, I’ll stick with the Cubs’ sides wagers.

However, the sportsbooks have reacted by bringing the Reds-Cubs total down from the 10.5-run opener to the current price so the House is leery about all the pro-Under money.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (52-69) play the second game of a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (65-55) Tuesday at  Great American Ball Park with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati clubbed Chicago 14-5 in Monday’s series opener as Reds’ NL Rookie of the Year favorite 3B Jonathan India went 3-for-6 with a home run, a double and 5 RBIs.

Season series: Reds lead 10-4.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs. He is 13-5 with a 4.15 ERA (138 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 17-4, with 4 IP, 9 ER, 11 H, 1 BB and 3 K Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Hendricks has earned two no-decisions against the Reds this season with a 5.23 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 2 BB and 9 K.
    •  vs. Reds on current roster (230 PA): 5.24 FIP with a .297 batting average (BA), .371 wOBA, .415 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.7 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez gets the nod for the Reds. He is 8-3 with a 3.95 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 14 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 12-3, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Thursday at the Atlanta Braves.
  • Gutiérrez is 1-1 this season against Chicago with a 2.38 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 8 K.
    • vs. Cubs on current roster (20 PA): 9.76 FIP with a .313 BA, .452 wOBA, .462 xSLG, 10.0 K% and 85.6 mph EV.

Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Reds -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+111)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Reds 9, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “lean” on the Reds (-180) even though Cincinnati is getting “sharp” line movement and Chicago is in the midst of a 12-game losing skid.

At this price point, I’d be more interested in parlaying Cincy’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus- or even-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+111) for a half unit only because Cincy is just 19-28 ATS as a home favorite, Chicago is 28-18 ATS as a road underdog and there’s “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the Cubs’ direction.

However, the Reds are 31-22 ATS against NL Central foes, the Cubs are 23-31 ATS in divisional games and Hendricks has been terrible in his last five starts against the Reds and in Cincy’s home ballpark.

Hendricks is 0-3 with a 9.26 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 24 ER) and 20/4 K/BB with 8 home runs allowed over his last five starts against the Reds. Also, Hendricks is 2-5 with a 6.16 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 42 ER) and 1.45 WHIP across 11 starts in Cincinnati’s home park.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit because there are so many Over-friendly trends in this matchup, Cincinnati’s lineup is tied with the best WAR in August and Chicago’s pitching staff has the worst WAR this month.

That said, all of the previous information is baked into the line and nearly 70% of the action is on the Over but there’s RLM heading towards the Under, according to Pregame.com. This is why I only “LEAN” OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (66-46) travel to the Windy City to start a four-game series with the Chicago Cubs (52-61) at Wrigley Field Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee lost the rubber match of a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants Sunday but is 6-4 over its last 10 games and 13-7 in the previous 20.

Chicago was swept in an interleague set against the crosstown rival Chicago White Sox this past weekend and is just 6-14 over its last 20 games.

Season series: Brewers lead 9-3.

RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. He is 8-3 with a 2.21 ERA (114 IP, 28 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 20 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 9 K in Milwaukee’s 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday.
  • Peralta is 2-0 this season against Chicago with a 2.14 ERA (21 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB rate over four starts.
    • vs. Cubs on the current roster (46 PA): 2.31 FIP with a .146 batting average (BA), .222 wOBA, .269 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 41.3 K% and 86.9 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Alec Mills is on the mound for the Cubs. He is 5-4 with a 4.41 ERA (69 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 10 starts and 12 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday.
  • Mills is 0-0 against Milwaukee this season with 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 1 K in one start and three relief outings spanning 8 1/3 IP.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster (45 PA): 6.11 FIP with a .214 BA, .315 wOBA, .431 xSLG, 11.1 K% and 85.7 mph EV.

Brewers at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Cubs +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-120) | Cubs +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 1

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Brewers (-200) because Milwaukee is the right side but a little too pricey in this spot.

Peralta is low-key putting up a Cy Young caliber season. He grades in the 85th percentile or better in hard-hit rate and EV, 96th percentile in expected wOBA, 97th percentile in xSLG and 94th percentile in K%.

Peralta’s numbers don’t dip much on the road, either. He has a 2.51 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a .573 OPS allowed as a visitor.

I wouldn’t hate risking 1 unit on the Brewers (-200), as in if your typical bet is $100 then wager that on Milwaukee’s money line to earn a $50 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the BREWERS -1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because Milwaukee has the third-best cover rate in divisional matchups at 31-19 ATS.

More importantly, the Cubs have flipped their season into “tank mode” and had a fire sale of assets around the trade deadline. I’m in favor of fading Chicago against a Milwaukee team trending in the other direction.

Since the deadline, the Cubs’ lineup is in the bottom-six of WAR, wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate. Also, Chicago’s bullpen is 0-3 with the highest home run per nine-inning rate and the second-worst FIP in MLB over that span.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE the UNDER 8.5 (+105) because Milwaukee’s lineup ranks right around Chicago’s in most hitting categories this month and averages fewer than 4 runs per game at Wrigley Field this year.

Furthermore, Mills has the fifth-highest contact rate of any pitcher with a minimum of 60 IP but the Brew Crew’s lineup is below-average in hard-contact and barrel rates so I feel good about Mills’ chances of having a quality start.

On top of that, if Peralta gets roughed up or isn’t dialed in then Milwaukee can resort to its awesome bullpen that ranks sixth in SIERA, ninth in xFIP and sixth in K-BB%.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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