NBA Play-In Tournament: Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Bulls (40-43) meet the Miami Heat (46-37) in an NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Game. Tip-off at Kaseya Center is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bulls vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The winner will earn the 8th seed in the East and will face top-seeded Boston in a best-of-7 1st-round series, while the loser will head home for the offseason.

Season series: Tied 2-2

These teams not only split their 4-game regular-season series, but Chicago and Miami each won one on the other’s home court. However, the Bulls hold a 3-1 against-the-spread (ATS) edge in the 4 games. Plus, Chicago has a healthy 6-2 ATS mark in the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, going 3-1 ATS last season, too.

The Over has cashed in each of the past 3 meetings in the series, including both battles in South Florida.

The big news for Miami is on the injury front, as leading scorer F Jimmy Butler (knee) is out indefinitely. Butler was injured in Wednesday’s 105-104 play-in game loss at Philadelphia. He played the final 3 quarters after suffering a knee injury and finished with 19 points. After an MRI Thursday, it was determined he has an injury to the medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his right knee and he is expected to miss several weeks.

Chicago won 131-116 in its play-in game vs. the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday, cashing as a 3-point favorite as the Over (223) easily connected. The Over has hit in 5 straight games for the Bulls.

Bulls at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:31 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Bulls +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Heat -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Bulls +2.5 (-115) | Heat -2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 205.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

  • G Alex Caruso (ankle) questionable
  • G Ayo Dosunmu (quadriceps) questionable
  • C Andre Drummond (ankle) questionable

Heat

  • F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
  • G Terry Rozier (neck) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Bulls at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Bulls 107, Heat 105

Moneyline

The BULLS (+105) are worth a look as short underdogs on the road. First off, Chicago has already won in Miami this season, and the Heat are in a world of hurt after losing Jimmy Buckets to the knee injury.

Chicago looked awfully good taking care of Atlanta at home in the play-in game Wednesday, and the Bulls have won 3 of the past 4 outings.

Against the spread

There isn’t a ton of reason to back the Bulls +2.5 (-115) catching the points, unless you’re absolutely adamant that the Heat will win, but only by 2 points.

Chicago enters on a 4-0 ATS streak, and it has covered 6 of the past 8 meetings against Miami.

PASS.

Over/Under

OVER 205.5 (-110) is a strong play, even if Miami is missing Butler, who tied with G Tyler Herro as the team’s leading scorer at 20.8 points per game.

Miami still has plenty of players like Herro, C Bam Adebayo (19.3 PPG, 10.4 RPB) and F Duncan Robinson (12.9 PPG) to get the job done offensively. The Heat cashed the Over (208.5) against the 76ers Wednesday but just barely — by a hook (a half point). The Over has hit in 3 straight, and 11 of the past 12 games for the Heat since March 29.

For Chicago, the Over (223) was never in question Wednesday against Atlanta, and the total has gone high in 5 straight outings. The Bulls are good for 117 or more points in each game, and 127 or more points in 3 of the past 4, while conceding 116 or more points across 4 of the past 5 contests.

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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The 10th-seed Chicago Bulls (40-42) take on the 7th-seed Miami Heat (44-38) Friday at Kaseya Arena for the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bulls vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Bulls pulled off a remarkable comeback against the Toronto Raptors Wednesday to become the 1st 10 seed to win their play-in game. The Bulls won 109-105 after trailing by 19 points as a 6.5-point road underdog. F Zach LaVine took over in the 4th quarter and ended the game with 39 points.

The Miami Heat fell in an early hole against the Atlanta Hawks and after a fighting back in the 2nd half could not overcome the deficit and lost 116-105 in Tuesday’s play-in game as a 5,5-point home favorite. Heat G Kyle Lowry scored 33 of the team’s 37 bench points.

The Bulls took the season series 3-0, winning by 24 points and 8 points twice.

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Bulls at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:29 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Bulls +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Heat -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Bulls +5.5 (-110) | Heat -5.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

  • G Lonzo Ball (knee) out

Heat

  • F Nikola Jovic (back) out
  • G Kyle Lowry (knee) questionable
  • G Gabe Vincent (hip) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Bulls at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 115, Bulls 104

Moneyline

G DeMar DeRozan had his revenge game against the Toronto Raptors, and now its Miami F Jimmy Butler’s turn against his former team.

Miami is 27-15 at home and even better when they are a home favorite. The Heat’s defense is their biggest strength and they cause 15.7 turnovers a game (3rd-best in the NBA).

However, the current line is not worth the risk so PASS.

Against the spread

The underdogs are 4-0 ATS for the play-in tournament, which adds a little concern when I say I like the Heat to cover. Miami has covered in 5 of their last 7 games after an ATS loss. And the Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against teams with a home record above .600%.

LEAN HEAT -5.5 (-110).

Over/Under

Both teams lean more on their defense and neither has a strong offense, but the line is at 208.5. That is roughly 20 points under the average line this season. Teams scoring over 100 points used to be celebrated, now it is assumed.

While the Bulls and Heat rank 22nd and 30th in points per game, their defense has one gaping hole, the 3-point shot. The Bulls rank 29th in 3-pointers allowed (13.2). The Heat are technically better, but just barely, ranking 28th (13.1).

BET OVER 208.5 (-110).

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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Bulls will travel to FTX Arena to take on the Miami Heat Wednesday in the season opener for both teams. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Bulls vs. Heat odds, and our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Bulls are coming into this season with high expectations, but they may need to be tempered to start with several players injured in their star-studded backcourt.

Chicago did add C Nikola Vucevic prior to the 2021 trade deadline, and he has added both rebounding and spacing to the offense. G DeMar DeRozan is the key offensive weapon and was an MVP candidate last season.

The Heat, on the other hand, made the conference finals last season, but lost to Boston in 7 games. Miami will once again be led by F Jimmy Butler.

C Bam Adebayo is poised to make another big jump on both ends of the court as well. The Heat didn’t make any big-name additions and have 1 of the best defensive rosters in the NBA.

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Bulls at Heat odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:01 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Bulls +245 (bet $100 to win $245) | Heat -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Bulls +7.5 (-108) | Heat -7.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

  • G Lonzo Ball (knee) out
  • G Alex Caruso (calf) probable
  • G Zach LaVine (knee) questionable

Heat

  • G Victor Oladipo (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Bulls at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 109, Bulls 105

Moneyline

PASS.

I do see some reason to back the Bulls moneyline here at the juicy +245, but considering you can get 7.5 points on the spread, that’s the better route to take.

Against the spread

LEAN BULLS +7.5 (-108).

The Heat were more prone to turn the ball over a season ago, and that could lead to some extra opportunities for Chicago.

Also, the Bulls have more unknowns regarding them with G Ayo Dosunmu and F Patrick Williams, both of which could step up as early as Wednesday.

On the other side, the Bulls have DeRozan who will be the best scorer on the court and can hit difficult isolation shots which makes him tough to guard, much like F Jayson Tatum who beat up the Heat in the playoffs.

The Heat also don’t have great backcourt depth and could rely on F Caleb  Martin and G Kyle Lowry for production as well which could backfire on them.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 216.5 (-115).

The Bulls were good offensively and bad defensively last season, but their effective field goal rate sat 10th in the league and their offensive rating was outside of the top 10.

The Heat ranked 4th in the NBA in defensive rating and bring back Adebayo and Butler, 2 key defenders who are consistently up for All-Defensive team nominations.

The Bulls could be without a star guard and 2 other key backcourt players, both of which had shown improvement on the offensive end. Without Oladipo, the Heat’s playmaking could be limited as well.

Chicago was just 40-45-2 O/U last season as well.

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Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Chicago Bulls (25-34) are in South Beach Friday for an 8 p.m. ET game with the host Miami Heat (31-29) at American Airlines Arena. Below, we analyze the Bulls-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Chicago has won three of the last four games (3-1 against the spread) with the latest game being a 108-91 home victory over the Charlotte Hornets Thursday.

Before this stretch, the Bulls were on a five-game losing skid from April 9-16 (0-5 ATS). Chicago has slid to 11th in the Eastern Conference, 1 game behind 10th place Washington Wizards for the final postseason play-in entry.

Miami had its three-game winning streak snapped in a 118-103 beatdown last night by the Atlanta Hawks as 6.5-point road favorites.

The 7th place Heat are trying to play their way out of play-in postseason status since seeds seven through 10 participate in the play-in tournament.

The Heat trounced the Bulls in their first meeting this season, 101-90, as 2-point road favorites.

Bulls at Heat: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Bulls +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Heat -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Bulls +4.5 (-110) | Heat -4.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 205.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Bulls at Heat: Key injuries

Bulls

  • SF Patrick Williams (heel) probable
  • SG Zach LaVine (health and safety protocols) out

Heat

  • SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out

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Bulls at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 109, Bulls 97

Money line (ML)

PASS because Miami should get a W tonight, but the Heat (-190) is a little out of my price range.

Also, Miami’s blowout loss to an Atlanta team last night without its leading scorer and assist man (Trae Young) and leading rebounder (Clint Capela) is further proof of the randomness in the NBA this season.

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Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the HEAT -4.5 (-110) for a half unit because beat the Bulls by 11 points in their first meeting despite a now-injured LaVine scored an efficient 30 points on 10-for-16 shooting with 6 rebounds and 6 assists.

LaVine’s absence, Miami’s motivation after last night’s embarrassing loss and the Heat winning three straight against the Bulls by at least five points are too strong of angles.

That being said, Miami is 2-6 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage and 9-13-1 ATS as a home favorite while Chicago is 14-6 ATS as a road dog.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 205.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because BetMGM has a really sharp total for Bulls-Heat.

However, the Under has cashed in five of six Bulls-Heat meetings, in three of Miami’s past four games and in three of Chicago’s past four games.

Also, we are getting to this party a little late as the Bulls-Heat opened with a 210-point total, but it has been steamed down because of the pro-Under action.

Furthermore, this is a “pros vs. Joes” situation in the betting market as the money (“pros”) are on the Under while there have been more bets placed (“average Joe”) on the Under, according to Pregame.com.

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