In a lightweight bout on the main card, Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush meet Saturday at UFC 289 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 289: Oliveira vs. Dariush odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m., prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, with the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
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Oliveira lost his lightweight strap at UFC 280 as he was submitted in the 2nd round by Islam Makhachev. “Do Bronx” had won his 2 previous fights via submission against Justin Gaethje (May 2022) and Dustin Poirier (Dec. 2021), and his win over Gaethje was in the opening round. The Chute Boxe fighter is a tough customer, and he has faced the best of the best in the class.
The southpaw Dariush has rattled off 8 straight victories since a 1st-round KO/TKO loss against Alexander Hernandez at UFC 222 in 2018, so yeah, it’s been a while. His past 2 fights might be the most impressive, topping Tony Ferguson and Mateusz Gamrot via unanimous decision at UFC 262 and UFC 280, respectively.
Oliveira holds a 2-inch reach advantage and has a slight 3.81-to-3.48 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Oliveira is a little more accurate at 61.52%, while Dariush lands his strikes at 53.73% accuracy. Both like to attempt the takedown too, but Oliveira well ahead with a 2.78-to-0.90 submission average.
UFC 289: Oliveira vs. Dariush odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:57 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Oliveira +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Dariush -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)
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UFC 289: Oliveira vs. Dariush picks and predictions
Records: Oliveira (33-9-0) | Dariush (22-4-1)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
OLIVEIRA (+125) is a solid value as the underdog in this fight. Dariush has been red-hot, winning 8 straight fights, but Oliveira has squared off with a who’s who in this division lately and has been a belt holder with 2 successful titles defenses.
I believe Oliveira taps into his championship experience to get the job done and hand Dariush his first loss since spring of 2018, while positioning himself for another shot at the strap. Oliveira hasn’t lost consecutive fights since 2016.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (+180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is worth taking a flier on, for a chance to nearly double up.
While Oliveira doesn’t play around, finishing inside the distance in 4 straight fights, he did have a unanimous-decision win at UFC 256.
On the flip side, Dariush’s past 3 fights have ended via decision, although his 4 fights prior to that run ended in the 2nd round or sooner. Still, as the competition has improved, his fights have ended up going longer.
I think Dariush can really give Oliveira some trouble, and take this one the distance.
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