Here is how the Chargers defeat the Broncos.
The Chargers have late-season pride on the line in a matchup with division rival Denver in Week 17.
Neither team seems to be playing for much of a chance at the playoffs, despite the Broncos not being mathematically eliminated. Benching Russell Wilson has had them in the national media’s spotlight this week.
How can the Chargers get their first win under interim head coach Giff Smith while breaking their four-year-long losing streak in Denver? Let’s go over it.
Now or never for the run game
No way around it: LA’s run game has been absolutely dreadful in 2023. The Chargers have averaged over five yards per carry just once in their last eight games. The run blocking has taken a step back and Austin Ekeler has clearly regressed. Isaiah Spiller and Joshua Kelley haven’t brought much production to the table as of late either.
I wrote about it in my last Broncos-Chargers preview, but Denver’s run defense is still really bad. In fact, it’s gotten worse since their last meeting. They rank 31st in average rush yards allowed with 141.1.
Well, the Chargers have two weeks to show some signs of life on the ground. Austin Ekeler did have a more efficient night overall against Buffalo. But the Chargers really need to get something from Isaiah Spiller going forward. He should be fed more carries as the only longer-term contract asset on this roster. Kelley and Ekeler are free agents after the year.
Surviving Sean Payton’s initial scripts
Obviously, Denver’s quarterback change is an interesting variable to introduce into the picture this week. But either way, Sean Payton has been one of the better offensive scripters historically. This year, Denver ranks 7th in the NFL in first-quarter scoring.
It’s the second and third quarter where the Broncos have struggled with consistency. If the Chargers can come out hot with a defensive effort similar to the one they showed early in Buffalo last week, it could make their lives a lot easier. Outside of the scripted offense perspective and Denver not adapting well later in games, it’s obviously important to not let Stidham get comfortable either.
Dealing with Vance Joseph’s pressures better this time
The Chargers’ offensive line struggled with Vance Joseph’s blitzes and simulated pressures in their first matchup of the season. LA’s offensive line allowed 18 out of the team’s 20 pressures. Will Clapp, Jamaree Salyer, and the interior of that offensive line struggled in particular. Trey Pipkins also set his 2023 season-high for pressures allowed with seven.
Rashawn Slater and the aforementioned Pipkins need to have better showings in particular on the outside considering the inexperience of Brenden Jaimes on the interior. Ultimately, the line needs to have proper communication and execution if they’re going to hold up against the strain of Denver’s aggressive playcalling.
Can Quentin Johnston get something going?
Joshua Palmer and Keenan Allen are out. Frankly, one has to wonder from a long-term standpoint whether it’s better for the Chargers to shut them down for the rest of the season.
Nonetheless, it will be Quentin Johnston this week as the team’s natural WR1. In the two Easton Stick starts after they hooked up on some long throws in the Denver game, Johnston has been rather unremarkable. He has just four receptions on ten targets for 52 yards in the last two games.
We’ve seen some flashes from Johnston here or there, but it would be nice for the Chargers’ offense to see some evidence of a wire-to-wire takeover game. If they’re going to beat Denver with the receivers they’ll be rolling out on Sunday, they’re going to need it.
Good luck against Patrick Surtain.
Turnover battle is must win
In the Easton Stick era, winning the turnover battle is more of a requirement than it’s previously been. Even after beating the Bills 3-0 on turnover margin, the Chargers still lost due to some drives that resulted in Cameron Dicker field goals instead of touchdowns.
This is a test for Stick as well. Last week was the first game of his career in which he committed zero turnover-worthy plays. In the games against Las Vegas and Denver, he committed six combined. He has to play disciplined, sound football for the Chargers’ defensive turnovers to truly count.
Make Stidham uncomfortable. Get some strip sacks. Take a pick-six back to the house. Regardless of how it happens, the Chargers need to win the turnover margin for any shot to win in these last two contests.
