Tag: Celtics Warriors odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Boston Celtics meet the Golden State Warriors Monday for a pivotal Game 5 of the NBA Finals at the Chase Center. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (ABC) and the best-of-7 series is tied 2-2. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Warriors Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State ground out a 107-97 Game 4 victory Friday in Boston thanks to an all-time performance from Steph Curry, who scored a series-high 43 points on 53.8% shooting (7-for-14 from 3) with 10 rebounds and 4 assists. The Warriors dominated the glass, outrebounding the Celtics 55-42.

Boston All-Star wing Jayson Tatum was extremely passive in the 2nd half of Game 4 and had the worst net rating (minus-22) of the Celtics’ starting 5.

Each team is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) in this series but Boston is winning 3 of the 4 factors and the total is 2-2 Over/Under (O/U).

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2022 NBA Finals Game 5 betting breakdown

Celtics at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:18 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Celtics +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Warriors -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
• Against the spread: Celtics +4.5 (-120) | Warriors -4.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Also see: Tournament

Celtics at Warriors key injuries

Warriors

• None

Celtics

• C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Celtics at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 111, Celtics 102

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Warriors (-170) but will opt for Golden State’s cheaper spread instead.

The Warriors are 39-10 straight up (SU) as home favorites with a plus-10.8 margin of victory and 16-6 SU on 2-3 days of rest with a plus-7.3 margin of victory. The Celtics (+135) are 10-17 SU as road underdogs and 14-8 SU on 2-3 days of rest.

Golden State has the best player in this series and generates cleaner looks on offense. Boston’s lack of a true point guard and ball-handler leads to squandered possessions via turnovers or the Celtics settling for long, contested 2-pointers.

Warriors All-Star SF Andrew Wiggins is locking up Tatum. Wiggins has been the best 2-way player in the Finals. He grabbed a career-best 16 rebounds in Game 4 and is on Tatum like glue. Tatum is shooting just 33.3% from the field when guarded by Wiggins.

However, the Warriors (-170) is just a little out of my price range.

PASS.

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Against the spread

Buy a full-point and BET WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) ALTERNATE LINE because every point counts in this matchup. Golden State is only a plus-0.3 net rating in the Finals.

If this game is tight down the stretch, the Warriors have a significant edge and could end up winning Game 5 by margin.

Since the 1st round, the Celtics are 3-5 SU in “clutch” time with a minus-45.6 net rating, 28.8% effective field goal rate (eFG%) and 0.76 assist-to-turnover rate (AST/TO).

The Warriors are 6-3 SU in the “clutch” with a plus-21.4 net rating, 59.5% eFG% and 2.13 AST/TO rate. “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

The bottom line is Golden State’s offense is a lot crisper in winning time because of continuity and championship know-how.

Another wager to consider is WARRIORS (-122) TO WIN THE 3RD QUARTER.

One of the most consistent things in sports since the Warriors hired Steve Kerr as coach is Golden State smashing opponents in the 3rd quarter.

In these playoffs, the Warriors are 13-7 ATS in the 3rd quarter with a plus-21.02% return on investment (ROI) while the Celtics are 11-11 ATS with a minus-3.23% ROI. Golden State has a plus-12.3 margin of victory in the 3rd quarter of these Finals alone.

BET the WARRIORS -3.5 (-122) ALTERNATE LINE and TO WIN THE 3RD QUARTER (-122).

Over/Under

PASS.

This is a sharp total and my numbers align too closely with the market’s projected score. It’s hard to pick a side on the total because playoff series slow down as they continue, but both teams have a lot of firepower and chuck a lot of 3-pointers.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

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Game 2 of the 2022 NBA Finals tips off Sunday when the Boston Celtics meet the Golden State Warriors. Tip-off at Chase Center is set for 8 p.m. ET (ABC). Boston leads the best-of-7 series 1-0. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Warriors Game 2 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston beat Golden State, 120-108, in Game 1 Thursday. The Celtics outperformed the Warriors in 3 of the “4 factors,” and Boston sank 51.2% of its 3-pointers.

Warriors former 2-time MVP Stephen Curry hit 6 first-quarter 3-pointers and scored a game-high 34 points, but Golden State’s offense fell flat in the fourth quarter, being outscored 40-16 by Boston.

Celtics got big efforts from C Al Horford and SG Derrick White, who shot a combined 11-for-16 from behind the arc, which made up for Jayson Tatum‘s off-shooting night. Tatum shot just 17.6% from the field (3-for-17) but dished out a game-high 13 assists to just 2 turnovers.

Celtics at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Celtics +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Warriors -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +4.5 (-108) | Warriors -4.5 (-112)
• Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Celtics at Warriors key injuries

Celtics

• C Robert Williams III (knee) – questionable

Warriors

• None

[tipico]

Celtics at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 110, Celtics 102

Money line

This is an expensive ML, but we’re going to take the WARRIORS (-190).

This is a must-win for Golden State, and this feels like a series that’ll go the distance. Teams are 14-2 straight up (SU) in NBA Finals history when hosting Game 2 after losing Game 1. Also, the Warriors are 38-10 SU as home favorites while the Celtics (+155) are just 10-16 SU as road underdogs.

The Celtics got unexpected points out of Horford and White; whereas Warriors guards Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole both struggled in Game 1. Boston’s role players should come down to earth in Game 2, and Golden State’s figure to have a bounce-back effort.

My hesitancy with laying the points with the Warriors is the Celtics are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs, and there’s a suspicious line freeze in the betting market for the spread (according to Pregame.com) while Golden State’s ML has been steamed up.

If your standard unit is $100 then BET that on the WARRIORS (-190) to earn a profit of $52.63 i.e. “flat” bet Golden State in Game 2.

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Against the spread

LEAN WARRIORS -4.5 (-112) based on the aforementioned rationale.

Golden State is 27-19-2 ATS as home favorites but just 4-9-1 ATS as 3-to-4.5-point favorites; whereas Boston is 24-5-1 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record.

However, teams that win the game outright typically cover the spread, and the Warriors -4.5 (-112) is very doable considering how many 3-pointers each team attempts per game.

Another reason for the LEAN to the WARRIORS -4.5 (-112) is to save some betting bandwidth for the Under, which has some value.

Over/Under

BET 1 unit on the UNDER 214.5 (-108).

There’s reverse line movement headed south of the total. According to Tipico Sportsbook, nearly 80% of the action is on the Over 214.5 (-112), but Celtics-Warriors Game 2 opened with a 216-point total. This suggests oddsmakers are daring us to bet the Over – so let’s go in the other direction.

Also, these teams are the best 2 defenses in the NBA and will adjust to their opponent’s impressive Game 1 3-point shooting performances. The Warriors and Celtics have a combined 14-25-1 O/U record when playing with 2-3 days of rest so adjustments will be made by both coaching staffs.

The UNDER 214.5 (-108) is my favorite bet in Game 2.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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The 2022 NBA Finals start Thursday when the Golden State Warriors host the Boston Celtics for Game 1. Tip-off at Chase Center is set for 9 p.m. ET and the game airs on ABC. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston is appearing in its first NBA Finals since 2010 and the first of the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown era. The Celtics eked past the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals with a thrilling 100-96 win in Game 7.

This is Golden State’s 6th NBA Finals appearance in the last 8 seasons and the Warriors are hoping to win their 4th NBA title in the Steph Curry-Klay Thompson-Draymond Green era under coach Steve Kerr. Golden State beat the Dallas Mavericks in a “gentleman’s sweep” (4-1) in the Western Conference Finals.

The road team won both Celtics-Warriors meetings this season but Boston was 1-0-1 against the spread (ATS) and the total is 1-1 Over/Under (O/U).

The Celtics are the only team with a winning record against the Warriors in Kerr’s 8-year stint as Golden State’s coach. Boston is 9-7 straight up (SU) and 12-3-1 ATS vs. Golden State since 2014-15.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2022 NBA Finals betting preview

Celtics at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:13 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Celtics +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Warriors -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +4.5 (-120) | Warriors -4.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Celtics at Warriors key injuries

Celtics

• PF Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Warriors

• SF Andre Iguodala (back) questionable
• SG Gary Payton II (elbow) questionable
• SF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable

[tipico]

Celtics at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 113, Celtics 105

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Warriors (-175) because most of the market is betting Golden State’s spread so I’m nervous Game 1’s final margin could be inside the number.

However, I expect the Warriors to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy at the end of this series because they get much better looks than the Celtics. Golden State has the 2nd-highest volume of layups for these playoffs whereas Boston has the 2nd-highest 3-point attempt rate.

The Celtics have settled for too many long, contested 2-pointers or 3-pointers while the Warriors exhaust all their options in possessions and get everyone on the floor involved.

If Golden State’s ML falls to -150 or lower then I’d take that instead of the Warriors laying points but PASS at this price.

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Against the spread

BET 0.75 units on the WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) since we are getting to the party a little late. Golden State opened as 3.5-point favorites but the market has steamed it up to the current number.

However, the Warriors have performed really well on extended rest, partially due to injury issues throughout the season and because extra time off gives Golden State’s terrific coaching staff more time to prep.

Golden State is 4-0 SU and ATS playing on 4 or more days of rest with a plus-21.3 margin of victory and plus-16.8 ATS margin. The Warriors are also 27-18-2 ATS as home favorites (plus-2.8 ATS margin) and 17-7-1 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record.

Something to consider: Since current NBA games go through dramatic swings due to the high volume of 3-point attempts, I’d be looking for in-game betting opportunities.

If Boston goes up double digits in the first quarter then I’d take a stab at Golden State’s ML. But, if the Warriors get up big then there could be a chance to “middle” by betting the Celtics plus points on an adjusted live spread.

BET the WARRIORS -4.5 (-105).

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 213.5 (-112) since we are getting late to the party on the total as well. Celtics-Warriors opened with a 210.5-point total but has been bet up to the current number.

There’s more value in the Over both teams can get clumsy with ball security and turnovers could lead to easy scoring chances for either team. There’s also crazy firepower on both benches.

That said, both teams are elite defensively and the Under has cashed in 7 consecutive Celtics-Warriors meetings in Golden State.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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