Celtics Mavericks odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

NBA Finals Game 4: Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Celtics have a shot to sweep the Dallas Mavericks Friday in Game 4 of the best-of-7 NBA Finals. Tip-off from American Airlines Center is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Series: Celtics lead 3-0

The Mavericks really needed to win Game 3 Wednesday to keep this series alive, but the Celtics prevailed 106-99 as 2.5-point road underdogs. F Jayson Tatum scored 31 points and F Jaylen Brown added 30 as Dallas moved within 1 win of a record 18th NBA championship — the Mavs and Lakers are tied with 17 each.

Dallas jumped out to a double-digit lead (25-12) but only led 31-30 after the 1st quarter and 51-50 at the half. Boston took over in the 3rd, outscoring Dallas 35-19 for an 85-70 advantage.

Behind a valiant comeback, Dallas cut the deficit to 93-92 with 3:37 to go, but the Mavericks couldn’t get any closer. It didn’t help that G Luka Doncic fouled out with 4:12 remaining. Doncic (27 points, 11-for-27 FG) and G Kyrie Irving (35 points, 13-for 28 FG) were the only Mavericks to attempt at least 10 shots.

Game 4 best prop bets and predictions

Celtics at Mavericks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:21 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Celtics -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mavericks -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -1.5 (+100) | Mavericks +1.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Celtics at Mavericks key injuries

Celtics

F Kristaps Porzingis (leg) questionable

Mavericks

G Luka Doncic (thoracic) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Celtics at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 108, Mavericks 99

Moneyline

Teams up 3-0 in the NBA Finals are 9-2 in Game 4’s, according to the Associated Press.

Boston hit 17 3-pointers in its Game 3 win, while Dallas sank 9 from deep. Reversing that discrepancy may be the only way for the Mavericks to win Game 4, but in the last 3 games, the Mavericks averaged 7.3 made 3-pointers and the Celtics averaged 14.3 made 3’s.

BET CELTICS (-110).

Against the spread

BetMGM Sportsbook opened the game as a pick-em, and early movement had the Celtics as 1-point underdogs. As more money has come in, they are now the favorites.

At plus-money, Boston -1.5 (+100) is hard to overlook as it only needs to win by 2 points.

BET 1½ UNITS between the CELTICS ML (-110) and the CELTICS 1-5 (+100), but no more.

Over/Under

The NBA Finals have been an Under bettor’s dream. All 3 games have cashed Under tickets in this series and Dallas has yet to score 100 points in a game.

If the Mavericks don’t improve their shooting, scoring 100 is unlikely — they’ve shot 44.4% from the field in the first 3 games.

This current 211.5 line is the lowest of the series but it should finish Under as Dallas struggles to score.

LEAN UNDER 211.5 (-110).

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NBA Finals Game 3: Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks meet Wednesday for Game 3 of their best-of-7 NBA Finals series, which the Celtics lead 2-0. Tip-off from American Airlines Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Celtics picked up a 107-89 win in Game 1 as 6.5-point favorites as the Under (216) cashed, and Boston exorcised its Game 2 demons with a 105-98 win while pushing as a 7-point favorite at most shops. The Under (214) once again connected.

G Jrue Holiday posted a team-high 26 points on an efficient 11-of-14 shooting in Game 2 while hitting a pair of 3-pointers to go along with 11 rebounds, 3 assists, a blocked shot and a steal in 41 minutes. F Jayson Tatum also had a double-double, finishing with 18 points, 12 assists and 9 rebounds.

The Mavericks have lost 3 of the past 4 playoff games while going 1-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The Under is 3-1 in the 4-game span, too. Dallas is averaging just 93.5 points per game (PPG) in the NBA Finals, its worst offensive production in a 2-game span since the final 2 games of the regular season.

Game 3 best prop bets and predictions

Celtics at Mavericks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Celtics +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mavericks -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread: Celtics +2.5 (-110) | Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Celtics at Mavericks key injuries

Celtics

F Kristaps Porzingis (leg) questionable

Mavericks

G Luka Doncic (thoracic) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Celtics at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 105, Mavericks 101

Moneyline

The CELTICS (+120) are a solid play in Game 3, as the series shifts to the Metroplex for the next 2 games.

Dallas is just 5-3 straight up on its home court during the postseason, while Boston is a perfect 6-0 away from home in the playoffs. The Celtics are averaging 106.0 PPG in the 2 games in these Finals, while the Mavs have managed just 93.5 PPG.

Look for Boston to continue its solid work on the road, pushing Dallas to the brink of elimination in the process.

Against the spread

Back BOSTON +2.5 (-110) on the road if you would like a little extra insurance and wiggle room. It’s entirely possible Dallas -2.5 (-110) could show some heart, pulling off a win in a close game.

But again, if you like the Celtics, just play them straight up rather than taking the little bit of points.

Over/Under

UNDER 213.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board in Game 3.

The series shifts to the Metroplex, so perhaps the Dallas offense gets a bump feeding off the energy of its supportive home crowd. But the Mavs have had a devil of a time trying to solve the Celtics defense, and a shift to Texas isn’t likely to change the course of this series. We’ll still get plenty of defense.

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Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (26-12) go up against the Dallas Mavericks (22-16) Thursday at American Airlines Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Mavericks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Celtics suffered a surprising 150-117 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder Tuesday as they failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites on the road. Boston has lost 2 games in a row by 12 or more points.

The Mavericks defeated the Houston Rockets 111-106 Monday but failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. Dallas is on a 7-game win streak.

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Celtics at Mavericks odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Celtics -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mavericks -+120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -2.5 (-115) | Mavericks +2.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 230.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Celtics at Mavericks key injuries

Celtics

None

Mavericks

F Dorian Finney-Smith (adductor) out
F Maxi Kleber (hamstring) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Celtics at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 118, Mavericks 114

Moneyline

Even though they’ve lost 2 straight games, CELTICS (-140) feels like the correct choice. It’s hard to imagine Boston losing 3 consecutive games and the Celtics are the more well-rounded team.

Against the spread

CELTICS -2.5 (-115) is an intriguing wager as we only need Boston to win by at least one 3-pointer to cover the spread. While slowing down G Luka Doncic is easier said than done, F Jayson Tatum and F Jaylen Brown are poised for big games for the Celtics.

The Mavericks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games coming off 2 days of rest and the Celtics are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road meetings against the Mavericks.

Over/Under

Even with the majority of the trends signaling that the Under is the ideal play, OVER 230.5 (-108) is where I’m leaning in this matchup. Both of these teams are top 5 teams in offensive rating and top 7 in true-shooting percentage.

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Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (4-5) visit the Dallas Mavericks (5-3) Saturday for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Center. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Boston has won back-to-back road games over the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat entering Saturday. In fact, the Celtics have won and covered in four of their last five road games. Boston is 4-5 ATS and 4-5 O/U.

Dallas has alternated between winning and losing each of its last five games with the latest being a 109-108 victory at the San Antonio Spurs. But, the Mavs failed to cover as 2-point favorites and Dallas is just 2-6 ATS and 1-7 O/U on the year.

The Mavs won and covered both regular-season meetings with the Celtics last year.

Celtics at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:42 a.m. ET.

Money line: Celtics +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Mavericks -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +3.5 (-108) | Mavericks -3.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Celtics at Mavericks key injuries

Celtics

SF Jaylen Brown (hamstring) out

Mavericks

SG Reggie Bullock (face) questionable
PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) questionable
C Maxi Kleber (back) out

Celtics at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 105, Mavericks 100

Money line

Since I “like” Boston plus the points and Dallas isn’t as good as its record indicates, I’ll “SPRINKLE” on the CELTICS (+133).

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time stats, the Mavs rank 24th in points per 100 possessions differential at minus-5.7 points while the Celtics rank 12th at plus-1.6 points.

Dallas has the highest win differential (plus-2.4) based on their efficiency differential meaning the Mavs have 2.4 more wins than they should. Also, Dallas has the worst spread differential in the NBA at minus-7.6.

On the other hand, Boston has a minus-1 win differential, which ranks 27th, so the Celtics are more efficient than their record indicates, athe absence of Brown could be addition by subtraction for the Celtics.

Brown and Jayson Tatum play a similar style of basketball and occupy a lot of the same space on the floor. Since only Tatum is playing Saturday, Boston’s offense might be a little less clunky.

Moreover, Brown’s replacement in Boston’s starting 5 is PG Dennis Schroder who played very well against Dallas’s Luka Doncic last season when Schroder was on the Los Angeles Lakers.

Last season, Schroder averaged 19.7 points per game on 54.8% shooting with 9.7 assists per in three games vs. Dallas. More importantly, Schroder spent the most time guarding Luka in those games. Luka only scored a combined 13 points on 3-of-16 shooting in their three meetings last season.

Against the spread

Definitely BET CELTICS +3.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their money line based on all the previous analysis and to maximize our handicap.

Plus there’s been a “sharp line move” towards the Celtics who opened up as 5-point underdogs but have been steamed down to the current price. Let’s follow the money and get down on the CELTICS +3.5 (-108).

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 210.5 (-112) for a small wager because we are getting to the party way late and I hate following a crowd of people in sports betting. According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered a the time of writing is on the Under, which has steamed the total down from the 215-point opener.

Both teams run a below-average pace and predominantly play halfcourt offenses. Each has a ball-dominant wing that operates mostly in the mid-range and draws out possessions, and if there’s an off-shooting quarter between both sides then the Over almost has no chance.

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