Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
Both tight end Noah Fant and wide receiver Tyler Lockett are among the top 10 in the NFL in this state going into Week 4.
You have to dig a bit to find positives for the Seahawks so far this season. One area where a couple players are standing out is a high catch rate.
Both tight end Noah Fant and wide receiver Tyler Lockett are among the top 10 in the NFL in this stat going into Week 4. Here are the top 25.
Which Saints wide receivers dropped the most passes last year? Some of their newest additions, like Jarvis Landry and Dai’Jean Dixon, boast the best hands:
Jameis Winston is back under center for the New Orleans Saints, but a lot has changed around him. Pete Carmichael will be calling plays to his headset, for one. For another, the New Orleans Saints have added a number of new wide receivers to the mix through free agency, the 2022 NFL draft, and the scrum for undrafted rookie signings after the event. But which of them have the best hands? To find out, here are the targets, receptions, and drops for each Saints wideout from the 2021 season.
It’s important to note that drops are a really badly overrated stat, in the sense that they impact such a small fraction of plays. When a receiver is being thrown at 100-plus times in a single season, they tend to catch the ball much more frequently than they drop it. And a player’s drop rate can change dramatically from one year to the next – a great example is Chris Olave, who was only dinged with one drop in the 2020 season before he dropped five passes in 2021. A great receiver can be undercut by a subpar quarterback, too.
So don’t read too deeply into it. At the same time, the player only gets into that position by reliably catching the ball when it’s thrown their way so often in practice. Too many drops in low-stakes situations reduces their opportunities when the bright lights are on, and it can spell their end with the team altogether.
Let’s get to it. Here’s how it broke down for each of the wide receivers on the 90-man roster ahead of training camp, except for Michael Thomas and Kawaan Baker, who were not targeted in 2021. Thomas missed the year with an injury, while Baker was on the practice squad. The list is ordered by their respective drop rates:
Only one WR has a better catch rate than Hunter Renfrow over the past 30 years
A couple of weeks ago, Hunter Renfrow joined some elite company in the Raiders’ record books. He joined Tim Brown and Jerry Rice as the only ever Raiders wide receivers to record 90 catches in a season.
Well, through 16 games, Renfrow has joined more elite company. The reliable slot receiver has a catch rate of 80.5% which is the second-highest over the past thirty years. The only one higher is two-time All-Pro Michael Thomas.
#Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow has caught 80.5% of his targets this season
The only WR with a better catch rate in the last 30 seasons is Michael Thomas in 2018 (85.0%)
Min. 100 targets
— Doug Clawson (@doug_clawson) January 5, 2022
Renfrow is coming off one of his best games of the season in which he caught a go-ahead touchdown and the catch that put the Raiders in a position to win the game in the final seconds.
In the process, he reached 99 catches on the season, putting him in sole possession of third-most catches in a single season in Raiders history, just five catches behind Tim Brown for the most catches by a Raiders wide receiver (104).
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The four-time Pro Bowler has a reputation for his route running, but the numbers show he’s among the best at catching balls he shouldn’t.
Hating on Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper has become a busy pastime for several subsets of NFL fans. There’s the members of Raiders Nation who want to believe the silver and black dumped an underachiever just in time. There’s the Eagles and Redskins faithful swimming in sour grapes after their clubs failed to lure Cooper away. And there’s even a contingent of Cowboys fans who inexplicably don’t believe the four-time Pro Bowler is worthy of the WR1 spot in Dallas.
But numbers don’t lie. And the numbers show that Cooper is one of the best receivers in the league. One set of figures, in fact, pinpoints him as the sixth-best.
In a Monday morning rundown of the league’s top pass-catchers of 2019, NFL.com’s Nick Shook uses Next Gen Stats to compare players’ catch rate- the percentage of targets caught- to expected catch rate, or the average completion probability when targeted. Basically, did the player do better than he technically should have?
According to Shook:
“Completion probability takes into account a number of factors, including QB pressure, separation between the target and the closest defender, distance of throw, speed of the receiver and so on. From a pass-catcher’s perspective, the factors that are most important are separation, tight-window percentage, cushion (at time of snap), double-team percentage and air yards per target, among others.”
When viewed through that lens, Cooper flat-out excelled. His actual 2019 catch rate was 66.4%. His expected catch rate, though, was just 57.8%. That means Cooper outperformed expectations on his targets by 8.6%.
To put it in concrete terms, Cooper was targeted 119 times last season. He made 79 of those catches. But the data says he should have caught just 68 of them. Cooper made 11 catches he had no business making. Almost one per game. And that over-and-above mark is what puts Cooper on the list with only Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett, Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, and Calvin Ridley ranked higher.
Of Cooper, Shook writes:
“Defenses liked to press Cooper on nearly one-fourth of all routes run by the receiver, but his separation at time of pass arrival (2.6 yards) falls in line with the rest of these receivers. His tight-window percentage (25.2) was third-highest, but none of his advanced metrics illustrate a receiver who was blanketed in 2019. With that said, Cooper was a receiver who made his quarterback, Dak Prescott, better last season, helping the signal-caller put together a 114.4 passer rating when targeting him. Prescott enjoyed doing that plenty, with Cooper posting the third-highest average of targets per routes run (23.8%) of this group.”
Much has been made (and rightly so) of Cooper’s perplexing tendency to shrink statistically in road games, but the math bears out that he is one of the best in the business at catching footballs during NFL games. And his on-the-job performance clearly justifies his elite payday among the league’s other highest-earning receivers.
No one in their right mind disputes Cooper’s status as one of the premier route-running technicians in the game. But in terms of catching most everything thrown his way and then some, Cooper doesn’t always spring immediately to mind, perhaps because the rare drops tend to leave a more lasting impression than the unlikely surprise grabs. It’s classic perception versus reality.
The real reality, though, is that Cooper is Top-10 caliber. And with Michael Gallup on the verge of becoming a household name and a highly-touted rookie also ready to join the party, Cooper’s stats, according to Shook, may actually improve.
“Cooper is a case that will be fascinating to watch in 2020, thanks to the addition of 17th overall pick CeeDee Lamb. Might these numbers jump with more dangerous targets available to Prescott?”
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