Cardinals Cubs odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 2

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (70-51) and Chicago Cubs (52-69) will tussle in a pair of games at Wrigley Field Tuesday. Game 2 of their day-night doubleheader is slated for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

(Stats and records don’t include the first game of Tuesday’s doubleheader)

Season series: St. Louis leads 8-4

The Cardinals have won 8 consecutive games and are now 5 games up on the scuffling Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings. St. Louis took Monday’s series opener 1-0 on an Albert Pujols homer (career No. 693), but it owns a fine .944 OPS over the win streak.

The Cubs managed just 2 baserunners in being blanked Monday. But Chicago pitching continues to be exceptional, especially in its home yard. The Cubs own a 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in their last 13 games at Wrigley Field.

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Cardinals at Cubs projected starters

RHP Jake Woodford vs. RHP Adrian Sampson

Woodford (2-0, 2.66 ERA) is making his 1st start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 through 23 2/3 IP in 13 games.

Figures to serve as an opener in this game. Has not pitched more than 1 2/3 innings in a single game since June 4
Likely to be followed by 22-year-old left-hander Matthew Liberatore. In 7 appearances (6 starts) in the majors this season, Liberatore has posted a 5.33 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 27 IP

Sampson (1-3, 3.51 ERA) has appeared in 12 games, making 10 starts. He owns a 1.25 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 59 IP.

Threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings in his last start (Thursday). Tied a season-high with 6K in that outing at Baltimore
Went 5 IP against the Cardinals on June 25, allowed 2 R, 4 H,2 BB and 5 K

Cardinals at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:31 a.m. ET.

Money line: Cardinals -140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Cubs +115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+115) | Cubs +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Cardinals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Cardinals 4

Money line

The Cards were a solid play over the first few weeks of August, but the scales now tip St. Louis a tad into fade territory.

BACK THE CUBS (+115).

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Run line/Against the spread

Avoid the extra juice here: PASS.

Over/Under

The Redbirds have had their offense cranked up to a high level recently. Although they’ve scored a combined 2 runs at home in their last 2 games, the Cubs had also been operating at a decent clip in recent home games.

With pitching on both sides being taxed, look into the Over 8.5 if you can get a price of -120 or better. PASS otherwise.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (69-51) and Chicago Cubs (52-68) launch a 5-game rivalry series on Monday evening. First pitch in the opener at Wrigley Field is slated for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: St. Louis leads 7-4

The Cardinals have won 7 consecutive games and are now 5 games up on the scuffling Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings. St. Louis has scored 8.0 runs per game on a 1.000 OPS during its win streak.

The Cubs lost 3 straight to the Redbirds in the 1st week of August. But Chicago is 11-5 since. The Cubs own a 2.47 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in their last 14 games at Wrigley Field.

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Cardinals at Cubs projected starters

LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. LHP Drew Smyly

Montgomery (6-3, 3.29 ERA) has authored a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 131 1/3 IP in 24 starts.

While a member of the New York Yankees, pitched 7 shutout frames against the Cubs on June 11
Has allowed just 1 run over 16 2/3 IP with the Cardinals

Smyly (5-6, 3.67 ERA), in 16 starts, has registered a 1.25 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 76 IP.

Owns a 2.59 ERA over his last 6 starts
Facing a St. Louis club that ranks 1st in MLB in OPS against left-handers (.811)

Cardinals at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cardinals -170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Cubs +135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+100) | Cubs +1.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Cardinals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Cubs 4

Money line

The Cards were a solid play over the first few weeks of August, but the scales now tip St. Louis a tad into fade territory.

But the lean on the Cubs is a small one. The price tag here does not offer enough reward. AVOID.

Run line/Against the spread

Betting the total figures as the strongest play here, but the CUBS +1.5 (-120) is worth some partial-unit action.

Chicago is 5-2 in its last 7 series openers on home turf, and the Cubs have been a sneaky-improved club since the All-Star break.

Over/Under

With some fade lean against both starters, the way the Cardinals hit port-siders, and with a couple fatigued bullpens needing an off day (and not getting one the day before a doubleheader), TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-108).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (23-31) host the St. Louis Cardinals (31-23) on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball at Wrigley Field for the rubber match of their 5-game series. First pitch is set for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split Saturday’s doubleheader with Chicago winning the first, 6-1, then St. Louis took the second, 7-4, in extra innings.

Season series: Tied 2-2, and the Cardinals have a plus-5 run differential.

Cardinals at Cubs projected starters

RHP Adam Wainwright vs. LHP Justin Steele

Wainwright is 5-4 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 59 IP over 10 starts.

Last start: No-decision in St. Louis’ 3-2 home win vs. the San Diego Padres Tuesday with 7-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K.
2021 vs. the Cubs: 0-0 with 0.60 ERA (15 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 1 BB and 12 K across 2 starts.

Steele is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 40 IP over 10 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Chicago’s 8-7 home win vs. the Milwaukee Brewers with 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
2021 vs. the Cardinals: One start — an 8-5 loss in Chicago Sept. 24 — with 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.

Cardinals at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cardinals -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+120) | Cubs +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Cardinals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Cardinals 2

Money line

BET CUBS (+115).

Everything about this Cardinals (-140) line stinks because they have their ace on the mound Sunday vs. a Chicago starter with a plus-5.00 ERA, and St. Louis ranks 1st vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.

According to Pregame.com and VegasInsider.com, a vast majority of the action is on the Cardinals, but their line hasn’t budged off the opener. This line freeze could be the oddsmakers’ way of daring the public to take more action on the Cardinals.

Also, Steele’s basic numbers are misleading, and his pitching peripherals suggest he’s due for improvement. Steele’s FIP (3.22) is more than 2 runs lower than his ERA, his hard-hit rate and exit velocity are better than the MLB average and Steele’s barrel rate is in the 98th percentile, per Statcast.

Finally, the Cubs have a significant edge in relief pitching. Chicago’s bullpen is 1st in xFIP (3.33), 3rd in K/BB rate (3.13) and 8th in WAR (1.9). While St. Louis’ bullpen has a 4.21 xFIP (ranked 24th), 2.27 K/BB rate (22nd) and 0.7 WAR (20th), according to FanGraphs.

BET 1 unit on the CUBS (+115).

Run line/Against the spread

The Cubs +1.5 (-145) run line has come down enough to consider, but maybe there’s value elsewhere. The Cardinals -1.5 (+120) are 7-5 RL as road favorites, and the first 4 games of this series have all been decided by at least 2 runs, including Saturday’s extra-inning affair. I’m not confident enough in the Cubs to sprinkle on Chicago’s alternate RL. However, since we like the Cubs to get it done, let’s LEAN CUBS FIRST 9 INNINGS (+127) instead of the chalky run line.

Over/Under

PASS.

There are several Over-friendly trends in this game including Chicago’s 12-5-2 O/U record as home underdogs, St. Louis’ 6-5-1 O/U record as road favorites and the Over cashing in 6 of the last 8 Cardinals-Cubs meetings in Chicago.

However, the weather forecast is predicting more pitcher-friendly conditions such as temperatures in the mid-to-high-50s and double-digits winds blowing in from right-center field.

PASS and stick with Chicago’s ML.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (29-21) head to Wrigley Field Thursday to start a 4-game series with the longtime rival Chicago Cubs (21-29) at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the first meeting this season between the NL Central teams. The Cardinals won last year’s season series 10-9 and had a plus-3 run differential.

St. Louis just swept the San Diego Padres in a 3-game set at home and the Cardinals are 7-3 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.

Chicago just split a 4-game series at home vs. the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cubs are 5-5 SU in the last 10.

Cardinals at Cubs projected starters

LHP Matthew Liberatore vs. RHP Keegan Thompson

Liberatore is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 9 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 9 K in 2 starts at the Pittsburgh Pirates and vs. the Brewers in his rookie season.

The 2018 MLB first-round draft choice by the Tampa Bay Rays is the 35th-ranked prospect according to MLB.com.

Thompson is 5-0 with a 1.58 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 3 starts and 8 relief appearances.

Last start: Won 5-1 Saturday at the Chicago White Sox with 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.

Cardinals at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:26 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cardinals -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Cubs -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Cubs +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Cardinals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 6, Cardinals 4

Money line

LEAN CUBS (-108) because they’re as productive vs. lefties as the Cardinals (-112) are against righties and Chicago has a starting and relief pitching edge.

Thompson has been lights out and grades in the 84th percentile of hard-hit rate, 89th percentile of exit velocity and in the 72nd percentile or better in expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage, per Statcast.

Chicago’s bullpen leads St. Louis’s in several advanced pitching metrics including xFIP (4.16-3.28), K/BB rate (3.26-2.23), contact rates and swing-and-miss rates, per FanGraphs.

It’s only a LEAN to the CUBS (-108) because the Cardinals are 8 games better in the standings and Liberatore has looked like the real deal so far.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Chicago is 24-11 RL as underdogs but the Cubs +1.5 (-180) is out of my price range for an outright bet. Perhaps there’s another similarly priced line to parlay with Chicago’s RL for a better payout.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-105) because Chicago is 9-4-2 O/U as underdogs and 5-1-1 O/U in the last 7 games vs. left-handed starters and Wrigley Field is a notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark.

My favorite bet in this game is Chicago’s ML, but there’s a smidge of value in the OVER 8.5 (-105).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (44-46) and Chicago Cubs (44-46) conclude their three-game series Sunday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the rubber match after St. Louis evened the series with a 6-0 victory Saturday thanks to Cardinals starting LHP Kwang Hyun Kim pitching six scoreless frames and three home runs from the St. Louis lineup.

Season series: Cubs lead 6-2.

RHP Adam Wainwright makes his 18th start for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 7-5 with a 3.58 ERA (105 2/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 this year.

Last start: Win, 6-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 3 K Tuesday at the San Francisco Giants.
Wainwright pitched to a no-decision May 23 against the Cubs with 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 7 K in St. Louis’s 2-1 loss.
vs. Cubs on the current roster: 264 at-bats with a .231/.287/.379 slash line, 60/19 K/BB, 9 HR and 34 RBIs.

RHP Trevor Williams is Chicago’s projected starter. Williams is 3-2 with a 5.51 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 over 10 starts and one bullpen appearance.

Last start: Win, 4-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 7 K at the Pittsburgh Pirates May 26. This is Williams’ first start since going on the IL after an emergency appendectomy May 31.
Williams got shelled in a bullpen outing for 7 runs (3 ER) on 6 H and 1 BB with 3 K over 3 1/3 IP in Chicago’s 15-10 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday.
vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 134 at-bats with a .313/.356/.545 slash line, 29/9 K/BB, 7 HR and 20 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Cardinals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:46 a.m. ET.

Money line: Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Cubs +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Cubs 2

Money line (ML)

BET the CARDINALS (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because St. Louis has the way more effective starter on the hill and it avoids their relief pitching.

Ten of Wainwright’s 17 outings this season have been deemed a “quality start”. Wainwright had his six-game quality start streak snapped in his previous start vs. the Giants even though he picked up the win as he allowed 3 ER on 5 IP.

Furthermore, all of Wainwright’s pitching peripherals, including K%, exit velocity, expected wOBA and FIP vs. current Cubs hitters are better than Williams’ against active St. Louis batters.

I’m avoiding betting the Cardinals for the full game because their relief pitching is dead last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since Chicago is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog this season and St. Louis’s bullpen cannot be trusted to sprinkle on the Cardinals -1.5 (+145).

St. Louis’s First 5 Innings run line of -0.5 (+120) isn’t a big enough payout to go that route either.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7 (-105) for a quarter unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s barreling into the Over and has steamed this total up from the 6.5-run opener.

However, it’s supposed to be rainy and windy at Wrigley Field Sunday with the weather forecast predicting 15 mph winds blowing in from left-centerfield.

Moreover, both lineups have a bottom-10 hard-hit rate in the majors against right-handed pitching and each is in the bottom 8 of batting average against RHP too.

The high wind speeds greatly reduce the chances of home runs and neither lineup can be trusted to string together hits. Also, these teams have a combined 10-16-1 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (43-46) meet their NL Central rival the Chicago Cubs (44-45) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago clubbed St. Louis in the first game of the series 10-5 Friday as the Cubs raked Cardinals’ starter, Wade LeBlanc, early with 3 runs in the first inning and did more damage to their bullpen with 5 runs in the seventh.

Season series: Cubs lead 6-1.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim makes his 15th start for the Cardinals. Kim is 3-5 with a 3.39 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Win, 5-3, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 2 K Monday at the San Francisco Giants.
2021 road splits: 1-4 with a 3.51 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.32 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB rate across seven starts.

RHP Zach Davies is Chicago’s projected starter. Davies is 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 over 18 starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 1 K in Chicago’s 13-3 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
Davies is 1-0 this season against the Cardinals with a 0.00 ERA, 11 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 BB and 9 K over two starts.
vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 134 at-bats with a .321/.401/.530 slash line, 22/17 K/BB, 5 HR and 12 RBIs.

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Cardinals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:53 a.m. ET.

Money line: Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Cubs -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Cubs -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Cubs 5, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

BET the CUBS (-120) for 1 unit since they hit much better against lefties than righties, Davies has been lights out vs. the Cardinals this year and Chicago has a huge edge in bullpen pitching.

For instance, the Cubs moved to 14-11 against lefties after beating starting LHP LeBlanc Friday and their lineup ranks 10th or better in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and hard-hit rate vs. left-handed pitching.

Furthermore, the Cardinals batters rank in the bottom-5 of the majors vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and hard-hit rate.

Lastly, St. Louis’s bullpen has massive control issues and ranks dead last in K-BB%, SIERA and xFIP this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS -1.5 (+165) for a quarter unit for all the aforementioned reasons plus Chicago has a winning run line record at home (24-20 ATS) and five of Chicago’s six wins over St. Louis this season have been by at least two runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Over because Davies’ pitching peripherals and St. Louis’s lineup’s slash line against him tell a different story than his basic pitching stats while the Cardinals are 8-3-2 O/U when Kim starts.

Also, the weather forecast is predicting 12.5 mph winds blowing in from left-centerfield and the Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 Cardinals-Cubs meetings.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (32-32) and Chicago Cubs (37-27) conclude their three-game set at Wrigley Field Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 15-7 and their bullpen has been lights out this series.

The Cubs relievers have pitched eight scoreless frames over the past two games and allowed only five hits.

Season series: Cubs lead 4-1.

RHP Carlos Martinez makes his 12th start for the Cardinals. Martinez is 3-6 with a 6.21 ERA (58 IP, 40 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Loss, 10-1, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K Tuesday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
Martinez got a no-decision in his May 21 start vs. the Cubs. It was a quality start for Martinez who had a stat line of 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K, but Chicago clobbered St. Louis 12-3.
vs. Cubs on the current roster: 241 at-bats with a .228/.316/.369 slash line, 62/26 K/BB, 8 HR and 28 RBIs.

RHP Zach Davies is on the mound for the Cubs. Davies is 3-3 with a 4.45 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 13 starts.

Last outing: Win, 7-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 4 K Tuesday at the San Diego Padres.
Davies pitched five scoreless innings at the Cardinals May 23 but picked up a no-decision in the Cubs’ 2-1 extra-inning victory.
vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 119 at-bats with a .345/.422/.571 slash line, 17/15 K/BB, 5 HR and 12 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Cardinals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:47 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Cubs -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cardinals 7, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS because while I prefer paying a little extra for St. Louis’s First 5 Innings run line the Cardinals are the right side here.

Not only are Martinez’s basic pitching numbers vs. Chicago much better than Davies’ against St. Louis, but so are Martinez’s advanced pitching numbers.

For instance, Martinez’s FIP, expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity are significantly better vs. the Cubs than Davies’ against the Cardinals.

Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” side of the market is behind the Cardinals as well. According to Pregame.com, 55% of the money is on St. Louis’s money line but 70% of the bets have been placed on Chicago.

Typically, it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s going in the opposite direction as the public.

And while these betting splits are for the full game and not the First 5 Innings like our wager above, I’d guess the bettors backing the Cardinals are also doing so because of their starting pitching edge.

St. Louis’s bullpen is towards the bottom of most advanced pitching metrics while Chicago’s relievers are a top-tier unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the CARDINALS +0.5 (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because of the previous analysis and there’s value in paying an extra 35 cents on the dollar for a half-run worth of insurance.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-105) for a half unit if at all, because St. Louis’s First 5 Innings run line is my favorite play in Cardinals-Cubs.

However, Chicago has scored seven or more runs in five of the seven Cubs-Cardinals meetings this season and Davies has been throwing grapefruits this year.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (32-31) and Chicago Cubs (36-27) meet Saturday in the second game of their three-game set at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago won the first game of the series 8-5 Friday thanks to three home runs by OF Joc Pederson, C Willson Contreras and 1B Anthony Rizzo, and five scoreless innings pitched by the Cubs bullpen.

RHP John Gant is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Gant is 4-3 with 2.63 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.59 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 across 11 starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 2 K in St. Louis’s 8-7 loss to the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
vs. Cubs on the current roster: 63 at-bats with a .206/.286/.302 slash line, 18/7 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.

RHP Kyle Hendricks makes his 13th start for the Cubs. Hendricks is 7-4 with a 4.59 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
Hendricks has five straight winning quality starts including against the Cardinals on May 21 with a stat line of 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 12-3 victory.
vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 263 at-bats with a .228/.278/.350 slash line, 52/14 K/BB, 5 HR and 17 RBIs.

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Cardinals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:31 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Cubs -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cubs 8, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

PASS even though Chicago is clearly the right side because I’d rather bet the run line heavier than pay an expensive vig with Cubs (-185).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the CUBS -0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a three-fourths unit because Gant’s 2.63 ERA is due for epic regression since his expected ERA is more than double that (5.78 xERA) and in the 10th percentile or worse in expected opponent’s wOBA, K%, BB% and chase rate.

Also, TAKE the CUBS -1.5 (+105) FULL GAME for a half unit because St. Louis’s bullpen is unreliable and, ideally, Chicago could add to whatever lead Hendricks turns over to his relievers.

The Cardinals’ bullpen has the fewest home runs allowed per nine innings in the majors but also the highest BB% rate in the majors and are last in both xFIP and SIERA, which are ERA estimators.

Essentially St. Louis’s relievers lose the plate, walk hitters and don’t do a good job getting out of innings unscathed as the Cardinals’ bullpen is 21st in left-on-base percentage. While Chicago’s bullpen is top-5 in WAR, SIERA, xFIP and home runs allowed per nine innings.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because this is a “sharp” total with very little value. However, I “lean” Over because the Cardinals’ pitching staff are last in BB% and the Cubs’ lineup has enough sluggers to do real damage if there is traffic on the bases.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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