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The Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs open the 2023-24 National Hockey League regular season Wednesday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Canadiens will have a new look after parting with plenty of veterans, while re-signing their younger core. The defense looks to be a weak spot, and Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault figure to guard the cage, with Carey Price no longer in the crease.
The Maple Leafs made some big moves to strengthen the team, adding Tyler Bertuzzi to the top scoring line, while bringing in Max Domi, Martin Jones, John Klingberg and Ryan Reaves to provide depth across the board.
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Canadiens at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:44 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Canadiens +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Maple Leafs -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Canadiens +1.5 (+100) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Canadiens at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Jake Allen (15-24-3, 3.55 GAA, .891 SV%, 1 SO – 2022-23) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV% , 4 SO)
Allen will get 1st crack at the cage in the opener, and the Leafs might be licking their chops to get at him. The veteran was just 1-1-0 with a 4.01 GAA and .890 SV% in 2 starts against the Leafs last season, including a 5-1 loss on Feb. 18, allowing 5 goals on 41 shots.
Samsonov resurrected his career last season in T-Dot after getting jettisoned by the Capitals. He went 19-3-0 with a 1.98 GAA and .927 SV% with 2 SO in 23 games at home last season, and he went 1-0-1 with a 1.99 GAA and .923 SV% in 2 starts against the Habs.
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Canadiens at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 5, Canadiens 2
Moneyline
The Maple Leafs (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, and that’s just too risky, especially in the opener.
Toronto “should” be able to easily push past an undermanned Montreal team, but that isn’t always the case when these Original 6 rivals get together. While the Habs have dropped 4 straight in Toronto, and the home team is 8-0 in the past 8 meetings overall, the Leafs are just too risky.
The Habs actually hold a 6-4 advantage in the previous 10 meetings, too, despite a perceived lack of talent compared to the higher-priced Leafs.
AVOID.
Puck line/Against the spread
The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (-120) are a better value laying the goal and a half on the puck line.
In Toronto’s 2 home games against Montreal last season, it outscored the Habs by a 12-2 count, easily covering the puck line in a pair of games as a heavy favorite. Still, be careful, as a favorite of -200 or greater last season, Toronto was just 2-2 straight up against Montreal, so go lightly.
Over/Under
OVER 6.5 (-120) is also worth playing lightly, but be careful. Allen is very giving when it comes to facing the Leafs, especially in Toronto.
Be careful, though, as the Habs have a decent top scoring line, but things drop off precipitously as you go down the lines.
The Under is also 4-1-1 in the past 6 meetings, and 7-2-1 in the past 10 in the series, although Toronto took care of the Over on its own in the most recent meeting to close out last regular season.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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