Tag: Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars odds predictions pick betting line spread

The Calgary Flames look to close out the Dallas Stars in Game 6 of their 1st-round Western Conference playoff series Friday. The Flames lead the series 3-2. Puck drop from American Airlines Center is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT).  Below, we look at the Flames vs. Stars odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

Calgary exploded in the third period in Game 5, rallying from a 1-goal deficit, for a 3-1 victory. Calgary outshot Dallas 16-5 in the period and put the Stars on the brink of elimination. The Flames have scored 6 third-period goals in the last 2 games. After a 104-point regular season, LW Matthew Tkachuk has mostly been shut out in this series. He has no goals, 3 assists, 14 penalty minutes and just 9 shots on goal.

Stars dynamic LW Jason Robertson lit the lamp for the first time this series in Game 5. The 22-year-old, who led Dallas with 41 goals in the regular season, has mostly been a no-show vs. the Flames. The Stars will need him to have a good Game 6 to give them a chance.

Flames at Stars odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:39 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Flames -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Stars +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
• Against the spread (ATS): Flames -1.5 (+140) | Stars +1.5 (-180)
• Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)

Flames at Stars projected goalies

Jacob Markstrom (37-15-9, 2.22 GAA, .922 SV%, 9 SO – regular season) vs. Jake Oettinger (30-15-1, 2.53 GAA, .914 SV%, 1 SO – regular season)

Markstrom continued his stellar play between the pipes with 20 saves on 21 shots in Game 5. He has allowed 6 goals on 125 shots in the series for a 1.21 GAA and a .952 SV%. According to MoneyPuck.com, he is third with 4.3 goals saved above expected in the playoffs.

Markstrom has been great, and Oettinger has been nearly as stellar. The Stars netminder stopped 29 of 31 shots in Game 5. He has started to crack a bit as he allowed 5 goals in the last 2 games – where Markstrom allowed just 2. As far as analytics go, Oettinger is the second-best goalie in the playoffs with a whopping 6.6 goals saved above expected.

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Flames at Stars picks and predictions

Prediction

Flames 3, Stars 2

Money line

We took a chance on Dallas’ money line last time out, and it didn’t pay off. However, I cashed out at a profit in the 2nd period with the Stars leading 1-0. It’s possible they hang in there and force a Game 7, but I don’t have a great feel for that with the way they have folded at the end of games.

The Stars seem cooked. Go lightly because it’s expensive, but LEAN FLAMES (-170).

Against the spread

Dallas led Game 5 for 2 periods and was within a goal in Game 4 for 48 minutes. Dallas +1.5 (-180) has a good chance to cash, but it’s too expensive.

PASS and let’s try to nail the O/U again.

Over/Under

The Under has cashed in 4 of 5 in this series, which has seen just 18 total goals. There is some hesitance on this wager because the Under line has dropped so much.

But let’s roll with the UNDER 5.5 (-140).

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The Calgary Flames (1-2) and Dallas Stars (2-1) face off Monday in Game 4 of their 1st-round Western Conference playoff series. Puck drop from American Airlines Center is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (TBS).  Below, we look at the Flames vs. Stars odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

The Flames have scored 3 goals in 3 games. Let that sink in. Calgary was 6th in the NHL with 3.5 goals per game during the regular season, and it even had a 2-1 lead in the second period of Game 3 before falling 4-2.

There have been 45 penalties and 124 penalty minutes combined in the 3 games. Calgary has gone 1-for-12 on the power play, which means it has 2 even-strength goals in the series. That won’t get it done.

Dallas was 0-for-10 on the power play in the series well into Game 3 before C Joe Pavelski ended the drought with his 2nd goal of the game and 1st on the power play in the 3rd period. No pun intended, but a star may have been born in this series as second-year G Jake Oettinger has been nothing short of awesome with a .969 SV%. Is that sustainable?

Flames at Stars odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Flames -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Stars +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
• Against the spread (ATS): Flames -1.5 (+165) | Stars +1.5 (-220)
• Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Flames at Stars projected goalies

Jacob Markstrom (37-15-9, 2.22 GAA, .922 SV%, 9 SO – regular season) vs. Jake Oettinger (30-15-1, 2.53 GAA, .914 SV%, 1 SO – regular season)

Markstrom was beaten for 3 goals on 31 shots in Game 3, but he still has a filthy 1.36 GAA and .942 SV% in the series. Those numbers aren’t indicative of a goalie that’s 1-2. He was 1-0-1 with a 3.33 GAA and .878 SV% against Dallas in the regular season.

The 23-year-old Oettinger has come of age in his 2nd season. He has a 1.01 GAA and .969 SV% in the series. Those probably aren’t sustainable as Calgary will score more than 1 goal per game the rest of the series. He was 0-2 with a 3.56 GAA and .908 SV% against Calgary during the regular season.

[tipico]

Flames at Stars picks and predictions

Prediction

Flames 4, Stars 2

Money line

Calgary’s offense has been abysmal, but they should have twice the amount of 5-on-5 goals than they do, according to MoneyPuck.com’s expected goals for metrics. Only Dallas’ percentage is worse among the playoff squads. Get your memes of the WWE’s Undertaker rising up out of his casket ready because I think the Flames ignite in Game 4.

Flames LW Matthew Tkachuk has more than twice the penalty minutes (12) than shots on goal (5). I have a hunch he lights the lamp tonight. It’s a little steep considering their struggles, but take the FLAMES (-160) to even it up.

Against the spread

I’m not a fan of either puck line because of the offensive futility. I do see a Flames multiple-goal win, but maybe if the odds were closer to +200 for the risk. PASS.

Over/Under

After the Under dominated in the first two games, the Over squeaked by in Game 3. There are a lot of trends pointing to the Under, but I think the power outage has dropped the O/U too low to go that way. It’ll be close again in Game 4, but I think an empty-netter gets it over the hump late. LEAN OVER 5.5 (+105).

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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The Calgary Flames (1-1) hit the road Saturday for their 1st-round Western Conference playoff series with the Dallas Stars (1-1). Puck drop at American Airlines Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Flames vs. Stars odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

Calgary captured the series opener Tuesday with a tightly contested 1-0 victory in a physical affair. However, despite the tight scoreline, Dallas only mustered 16 shots on goal.

The Stars evened the series with their own shutout in Game 2, although they were outshot again (29-23). The Stars opened the scoring with a C Joe Pavelski marker just 7:47 into the first period and added an empty-net goal to seal the 2-0 victory.

Flames at Stars odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:43 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Flames -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Stars +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
• Against the spread (ATS): Flames -1.5 (+170) | Stars +1.5 (-230)
• Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: +120 | U: -150)

Flames at Stars projected goalies

Jacob Markstrom (37-15-9, 2.22 GAA, .922 SV%, 9 SO – regular season) vs. Jake Oettinger (30-15-1, 2.53 GAA, .914 SV%, 1 SO – regular season)

Markstrom’s 9 shutouts led the NHL and he’s been lights out to start the postseason. He’s allowed just 1 goal on 38 shots through the first 2 games of the series and stopped 21 of 23 shots against the Stars April 21 in his penultimate start of the season, a 4-2 victory.

Oettinger posted 30 regular-season wins in his first season as the Stars starter, and he’s been solid through the first 2 games of this series with a shutout in Game 2 and just 1 goal allowed on 55 shots. He struggled in 2 starts against the Flames in the regular season with 7 goals allowed on 76 shots for a 3.56 GAA and .908 SV%.

[tipico]

Flames at Stars picks and predictions

Prediction

Dallas 3, Calgary 2

Money line

The Stars have been very sharp through the first 2 games and should be able to keep pace in their return home for Game 3. There’s some value in DALLAS (+133) to win on home ice.

Against the spread

The Stars and Flames have met 5 times between the regular season and Games 1 and 2 of this series. Three of those 5 meetings have been 1-goal games, and the other 2 games have been 2-goal margins with late empty-netters.

There’s very little value in the insurance on Dallas +1.5 (-230). Even if the favorited Flames pull off the victory, there’s far from any guarantee it’s going to be by 2 or more goals.

AVOID.

Over/Under

With a Vezina-quality season from Markstrom, and Oettinger playing lights out in the series, it’s hard to back the Over 5.5 (+120) Saturday. These two teams have been playing tight, defensive hockey and the UNDER 5.5 (-150) is the only play here.

However, tread lightly with the heavy juice on a total that could get pushed Over with a late empty-net goal.

PASS altogether if the line drops to an even 5.

Watch: ESPN+ has become a must-have for hockey fans. Get access to more than 1,000 out-of-market NHL games, 75 weekly national games, and more all season. Sign up for ESPN+ now!

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Andrew Reid on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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