busts and overvalued players – Syndication Server

2022 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

Know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts.

It’s rare that an otherwise consistently selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some recognizable names just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.

“Bust” is a loaded term that isn’t entirely fair, nor is it an accurate reflection of a player’s risk. Furthermore, it’s tough to find a consensus definition. Can an injury create a bust? Is it only a bust situation if the player goes up in flames without an injury? Both? Are busts only early-round selections? You get the point. Regardless of how one defines it, the term is far from perfect.

This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches. Therefore, we’ll focus on “overvalued” and “bust potential” in this space. Just because a player appears in this list, it doesn’t automatically mean he will be a total flop, but the players in question certainly have elevated risk of failure. All players are ordered from least risk to most.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. ADP variations between sites are wild this time of the year, so expect them to level out over the coming weeks.

2022 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

Make sure you know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2021 fantasy football drafts.

This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches. Therefore, we’ll focus on “overvalued” in this space. ADP variations between sites are wild this time of the year, and those dramatic differences will be noted below.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft.

2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

1) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 3:05 | Bust factor

In Mixon’s four pro seasons, he has finished a full slate just once. The Bengals present an intriguing situation from a volume perspective, but the lack of durability makes it more or less a wash. Even if he stays healthy, Mixon has a suspect offensive line and an offense system intent on throwing the ball to a trio of formidable wideouts. Mixon has yet to reach double-digit touchdowns in a season, and his yardage cap is less than 1,170 yards on the ground. Don’t get hung up on his name value.

2) QB Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans | ADP: 7:09 | Bust factor/overvalued

The receiving corps is relying on a breakthrough from tight end Anthony Firkser, which is reasonable, and serious progress from newcomers Josh Reynolds and Dez Fitzpatrick, a rookie. A.J. Brown is a legit WR1, and Derrick Henry helps make play-action passing dangerous, but he is poised for a setback statistically and comes with inflated injury concern. Tannehill is being drafted ahead of Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and a handful of other quarterbacks with better risk-reward ratios. Some services place his ADP in the ninth round, which is too high, as well.

3) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants | ADP: 6:11 | Bust factor

The former Detroit Lion cashed in on one strong season — which wasn’t even last year — and a decent campaign the year before. He suffers a serious drop-off at quarterback by entering an offense led by Daniel Jones, a signal-caller coming off of a drastic regression in his second season. Jones is on thin ice, but who is going to replace him if the third-year passer doesn’t bounce back? Mike Glennon is the current answer, which should be startling. Golladay, with one full season to his credit, comes with more downside than likely reward.

4) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants | ADP: 10:11 | Overvalued

So he finally finished a full season and what did gamers get to show for it? One measly touchdown. Now, the Giants have improved the weaponry around Engram to make him even less of a focus, and the backfield should see a healthy Saquon Barkley’s return to gobble up checkdowns from the arm of a work-in-progress quarterback. While the cost of investment isn’t horrific, the number of better tight end options going later than Engram is nearly 10 players.

5) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons | ADP: 4:12 | Overvalued

Don’t get me wrong, Pitts is the top rookie tight end talent in recent memory. He is physically capable of doing things players at his position shouldn’t be capable of accomplishing. And he gets a huge boost in targets if Julio Jones is indeed out of Atlanta. That said, Pitts is still a rookie at a position that typically takes time to effectively contribute in fantasy. He is currently going as TE4 in redraft leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft. This excludes keeper leagues, so his placement is crazy high. Looking at the past decade of rookie tight ends to finish in the top 25 of PPR point-earners, history isn’t on his side for a monster year. The average stat line: 54 targets, 35 receptions, 401 yards, 3.6 touchdowns, 96.6 PPR points. Evan Engram’s 2017 season was by far the most productive, logging 64-722-6 on 115 looks (173.6 PPR points). The next four best PPR producers: Hunter Henry (131.8 points), Dwayne Allen (115.3), Jordan Reed (114.7) and Noah Fant (113.8). The average of those five: 129.8, which was TE17 last year.

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6) TE Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins | ADP: 9:05 | Overvalued

Historically, tight ends rarely have mattered in a Chan Gailey offense, and now the Dolphins have added a pair of playmaking receivers to interfere with Gesicki’s target count. The Penn State product picked up the pace late last year after a rocky start, but much of his success can be boiled down to three games, one of which came with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. While entering the final year of his deal could add some incentive, Gesicki still is reliant on a so-so quarterback situation in an offense that boasts no silver lining for his odds of a consistently useful campaign.

7) RB Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 8:05 | Bust factor

Between injury history, a pass-happy offense, and two other very capable running backs, Fournette could be a lineup paperweight in 2021. The ADP isn’t so much a problem, so it’s not like he presents an overreach, but there’s so much working against him. Fournette’s saving grace in recent seasons has been his receiving chops. Running back Giovani Bernard will cut into that area of his game, and then there’s the chance of losing short-yardage touchdowns to Ronald Jones, which kneecaps Fournette’s two main ways of contributing. Only two teams (PIT, JAC) ran at a lower percentage of their overall offensive snaps. At this point, Lombardi Lenny is merely roster depth for the occasional spot start.

8) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 5:03 | Overvalued

Some of his placement is still the proximity to the NFL draft and its natural hype effect on rookies. Face it, fantasy owners love themselves the newest shiny toy, and Chase is in that category. He hasn’t played since 2019, which is possibly benign, but it’s, at a minimum, not a plus. The Bengals have two other capable receivers in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and Mixon is a respectable receiver out of the backfield. Chase is reunited with Joe Burrow (knee), so there’s that going for him, but he ultimately is a rookie and also has to fight the rust factor. The LSU standout eventually will be a fantasy stud, although there should be some healthy skepticism as to how effective he’ll be as a rookie — especially when the price tag is so lofty at this current time. Chase’s ADP ranges between Rounds 5 and 10 most of the time, which is bonkers. Anything earlier than Round 8 is way too soon in a single-year league.

9) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 5:06 | Overvalued

This one really could go either way, so take it with a grain of salt. The main idea of including Evans here is the wealth of targets around him. Presume Chris Godwin stays healthy all year, and Antonio Brown enters with a potential to play a full season, too. What will that do to Evans’ numbers? He thrived by finding the end zone a career-high 13 times last year. His yardage (1,006) and receptions (70) were the second-lowest marks of his career for each stat. Those dips were with Godwin and AB missing a combined 12 games. Rob Gronkowski also was slow to get rolling. The Bucs added pass-grabbing RB Giovani Bernard, and TE O.J. Howard returns from injury. The primary reason to hold out hope Evans will indeed reach his ADP in relation to production is his scoring prowess. He has, though, scored eight or fewer TDs in four of his seven seasons, so it’s not like Evans is a total lock for finding paydirt a dozen times.

10) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans | ADP: 8:02 | Bust factor

The obvious looming legal concerns have sent his draft stock tumbling, which is no surprise. Watson also wants out of town, further clouding his situation. Timing could very well be on his side, unless the NFL steps in to implement discipline ahead of the 20-plus impending lawsuits being adjudicated. There’s always the chance it all could be settled ahead of time, although it appears it all will be going to court in the fall. Presuming he plays, and for the Texans, Watson will be tasked with carrying the offense in a new system devoid of dynamic receivers, outside of veteran Brandin Cooks. The receiving corps has oft-injured Randall Cobb manning the slot, and veteran Chris Conley was added to compete with Keke Coutee for a top-three spot. Nico Collins comes aboard after being drafted in Round 3, and his 6-foot-5 frame presents a target in the red zone. Will Fuller’s defection leaves a glaring hole in this passing game: a consistent deep threat. Houston added running backs Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to work in alongside David Johnson, suggesting an increased emphasis on the ground game.

2020 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

Make sure you know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2020 fantasy football drafts.

It’s rare that a normally selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some guys just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.

This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches.

Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz | Philadelphia Eagles | Overvalued | ADP: 8:12

How much confidence can even the most ardent supporters of Wentz have in his ability to stay on the field? How about the durability of his receiving corps? There’s little chance the entire cast of wideouts will suffer through as many injuries as last year, but Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson have been brittle their entire careers. Rookie WR Jalen Reagor is rather raw and may not have any sense of a conventional offseason program this year. Then there’s the concern of Andre Dillard at left tackle after his disastrous rookie year. At Wentz’s best, he has been a midrange QB1, which is entirely possible if all goes smoothly, but trusting him as a starter is going out on a thin limb. Should he be your starter, back up Wentz with a bona fide QB1 — a move that ties up two picks for what exactly?

Daniel Jones | New York Giants | Bust factor | ADP: 11:02

It wouldn’t be fair to hold an ankle sprain against Jones, but it is also imprudent to outright dismiss the idea that he could be at least an elevated injury risk. The term “bust factor” is applicable. This isn’t to say Jones will fall flat on his face, but it’s the Giants’ offseason system changes could cause him to take a step backward. In 2019, he exceeded expectations. Throwing out his four pass attempts from Week 1, Jones produced 145 fantasy points in his four best games and 141 points in his eight other appearances. Only one of those contests resulted in a total of more than 20 fantasy points, and he failed to account for multiple touchdowns in seven of those eight games. Learning a new offense on the fly is more challenging than ever, due to the virus eliminating on-field practices. Despite erratic results likely in the cards again, Jones’ year-end results may creep into the QB1 territory; inconsistency is a killer in weekly head-to-head formats.

Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Overvalued | ADP: 7:03

Allen finished as QB9 in his second pro season, and the addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs has many a fantasy gamers drooling at the idea of what could be in 2020. A closer look at Allen’s 2019 season shows a quarterback who hasn’t thrown for more than 266 yards in any game of his pro career, and his ’19 completion percentage was still only 58.8 percent. On a per-game basis, he didn’t even improve upon his rookie season in terms of fantasy points generated (since he played only a few snaps in Week 17, his playoff game was substituted). In nine of his regular-season starts, Allen failed to throw for multiple touchdowns, and two of those outings resulted in goose eggs. He falls to No. 18 when rushing scores are removed for all quarterbacks — by far the biggest drop from any QB in the top 12. Over the last 10 seasons, only Cam Newton ran for more scores in a single year than Allen’s nine, and the last time Cam led the NFL in QB rushing scores, he followed it up with 50 percent fewer the next year. Long story short, unless Allen becomes considerably better throwing the ball, he’s going to remain overly reliant on a volatile statistic.

Running backs

Kenyan Drake | Arizona Cardinals | Overvalued | ADP: 2:02

In 11 games last year before his explosive conclusion, Drake ran for 454 yards and a lone score. He registered 123.9 PPR points. In the Weeks of 15-17, Drake shredded two of the worst defenses against the run and beat up on a Seattle unit that finished in the middle of the pack. Those trio of contests resulted in 363 rushing yards and seven scores, good for 90.3 fantasy points and representing 42 percent of his entire season’s output. First of all, that pace isn’t sustainable. Secondly, the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins means this offense is going to continue to air it out and at an even higher rate. Part of the reason why Drake saw so much work down the stretch was due to the passing game’s struggles. In Year 2 of this system, the training wheels will come off for Kyler Murray — whose legs are a threat to Drake. Don’t buy the hype of the former Dolphin as a No. 1 running back.

David Montgomery | Chicago Bears | Bust factor | ADP: 4:07

Montgomery was a fantasy draft darling last summer, and his weekly inconsistency was disappointing. Not enough has changed in his favor to suggest the second-year back will automatically turn it around. He loses third-down work to Tarik Cohen, and the overall passing game stands to see improvement. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky just isn’t good enough to keep defenders out of the box, and neither is backup Nick Foles. Montgomery ran for more than 86 yards only twice, and one of them came in Week 17. Ten of his appearances found him averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per carry, including eight with an average of 3.0 yards or below. The offensive line is a major concern and wasn’t addressed in the offseason but for a pair of seventh-round picks. Last year’s RB24 in PPR was a lineup killer most of the season and benefited from a rather pedestrian year by the position, as well as a boost from four efforts of at least 15 fantasy points (nine single-digit games).

Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Overvalued | ADP: 5:03

Taylor’s ADP is inflated early on due to a lack of separation in the charts from dynasty leagues still going after the draft. Don’t misconstrue his inclusion in this list as anything negative about Taylor’s talents. He’s the best back on this roster. That said, he’s also a rookie coming into a fairly complex NFL offense without rookie minicamp, OTAs, and possibly a traditional training camp. The Colts have a capable back in Marlon Mack, whose upside was capped last year by the limitations of Jacoby Brissett. Moving to Philip Rivers should help immensely in keeping defenses from stacking the box. In the early going, Taylor could struggle to see the field enough to matter on a weekly basis, and he’s unlikely to see third-down reps with Nyheim Hines having that role locked down. Mack is injury-prone, so there’s always the chance Taylor finds a major role via this route, but drafting him as anything more than an RB4 is taking a leap of faith that could cost gamers dearly.

Wide receivers

Stefon Diggs | Buffalo Bills | Bust factor | ADP: 5:02

One of the streakiest players at his position, Diggs runs hot and cold like few others. Last year, he showed his mouthy side when the ball wasn’t coming his way as much as he wanted — something we could witness again due to limitations in the system and from his developing QB. It’s hard enough changing teams, but doing so in the midst of a pandemic is unprecedented. It begs the question about whether Diggs will struggle to build chemistry with his new quarterback, one whose career high in passing yards through two seasons is a laughable 266 yards. Josh Allen has a monster arm but is still trying to put it together as a quarterback — and we haven’t really seen enough maturation from him through two seasons to consider a big jump forward as being a certainty. Diggs is talented enough to inconsistently make his way to WR2 status by year’s end, but that roller coaster may make even seasoned gamers dizzy by the end of it all.

A.J. Green | Cincinnati Bengals | Overvalued | ADP: 5:11

A borderline sixth-round pick for receiver who didn’t even play last year, is entering his age-32 season, and has a rookie quarterback trying to navigate a pandemic? No thanks. Green played in only nine games in 2018, and he missed six games in 2016. It would be one thing if Green was recovering from an upper-body injury, but a busted wheel on a receiver north of 30 is scary. Eleven different lower-body injuries have put him on an injury report since Week 5 of 2012. There’s not enough upside in his game to warrant a draft placement over some of the younger, more explosive weapons currently going behind him in ADP results.

Robby Anderson | Carolina Panthers | Bust factor | ADP: 12:05

In 2019, Anderson caught two touchdowns in his first nine games and then went on the upswing, logging four scores in his next six games. He has been consistently streaky in the last three years, going stretches of at least five games in both 2017 and ’18 without finding the end zone. He finished fast in the last two years, but it was the opposite in ’17, and now he joins a Carolina offense that has so many weapons around him but a sketchy quarterback situation. Teddy Bridgewater is merely a game manager, as we saw last year in New Orleans’ powerhouse offense. The Panthers’ newest receiving asset is a downfield threat but with that comes erratic production. Despite being the No. 1 receiver in New York the last three seasons, Anderson has only two total games with more than seven catches and 24 contests with three or fewer receptions. Since “bust” is relative to expectations, at a minimum, take this as a warning to understand what you’re getting in return.

N’Keal Harry | New England Patriots | Bust factor | ADP: 14:10

The 2019 first-round pick’s season started off on the wrong foot — err, ankle — after a sprain derailed his preseason and cost him nine games. With a partial first season now under his belt, Harry faces more adversity after Tom Brady defected for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback questions abound, it’s a safe bet the Pats will rely heavily on the ground game. Given a first-place schedule, a tremendous degree of uncertainty at quarterback, and a likely low-volume aerial attack, just how much can one reasonably expect from Harry? He’s not being drafted as more than a late-round gamble, thankfully, so most gamers already get it.

Tight ends

Evan Engram | New York Giants | Overvalued | ADP: 6:12

Dynamic when on the field, it’s tough to get on board with drafting Engram as a TE1 at this point. He’s living off of a huge rookie season and has played progressively fewer games since his 2017 breakout year. The Giants also have a new coaching staff, and while offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s system has been favorable for the position before, Engram still has to learn it during this wonky offseason. Then there’s the issue of the Giants having so many other outlets for Daniel Jones, ranging from Saquon Barkley grabbing passes from the backfield to a trio of capable receivers in Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Engram currently is being drafted ahead of Hunter Henry, Jared Cook and Austin Hooper — all at least as risky with as much or more to like. Unless you’re rostering Engram at a cheap price and still able to bolster tight end depth without sacrificing significantly elsewhere, he’s better left to be a headache for someone else.

Rob Gronkowski | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Bust factor | ADP: 6:03

This one really could go either way. Gronk took off a year and said he feels great. He also lost a ton of a weight in his season away, and Gronkowski never was a stranger to the injury bug in New England. The Buccaneers have so many weapons on any given play, and the Bruce Arians system hasn’t been the friendliest to tight ends throughout the years. That said, if Gronk is Gronk, and Tom Brady is Tom Brady, gamers are going to enjoy the ride … just understand how much risk you’re assuming along the way. These two may not pick up where they left off.