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The Buffalo Bills (1-0) and Miami Dolphins (1-0) meet at Hard Rock Stadium Thursday. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Bills vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Bills opened their season with a 34-28 win over the visiting Arizona Cardinals Sunday. Buffalo rallied back from a 14-point deficit, but failed to cover as a 7-point favorite as the Over (45) easily hit. QB Josh Allen was 18-of-23 passing for 232 yards with 2 TDs and rushed for another 2 scores. Allen appeared to injure his left hand on a rushing TD in the 4th quarter, but has been cleared to play Thursday.
Miami also overcame a 14-point deficit in a 20-17 home victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. It was unable to cover as a 3.5-point favorite, and the Under (49) cashed. WR Tyreek Hill — who was detained by Miami-Dade Police officers earlier in the day for a traffic violation — ignited the Dolphins offense in the 3rd quarter with an 80-yard TD. K Jason Sanders made 2 FGs in the 4th, including a go-ahead 52-yarder as time expired.
Miami will be without RB Raheem Mostert (chest) Thursday, and RB De’Von Achane (ankle) is a game-time decision. Mostert and Achane led the Dolphins in rushing yards in the 2023 regular season with 1,012 and 800, respectively.
Bills at Dolphins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:04 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bills +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Dolphins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills +2.5 (-110) | Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Bills at Dolphins key injuries
Bills
- CB Taron Johnson (forearm) out
- DE Dawuane Smoot (toe) out
Dolphins
- RB De’Von Achane (ankle) questionable
- WR Odell Beckham Jr. (undisclosed) out
- RB Raheem Mostert (chest) out
- WR Malik Washington (quadricep) out
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Bills at Dolphins picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 31, Dolphins 23
Moneyline
The Dolphins have struggled against Allen recently. The BILLS (+115) are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams, with Allen averaging 333.8 passing yards over the 4-game sample.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is just 1-6 in 7 career starts vs. the Bills and went 2-3 in the 2023 regular season in standalone games, not including a 28-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans in a MNF doubleheader Dec. 11. Tagovailoa is faced with the pressure of ending his team’s 4-game skid against the Bills, but he’ll have to do so in a standalone game, a situation he was mediocre in last season.
To make matters worse, Miami may potentially be without its top 2 RBs Thursday — not a great sitution for a team that was 3rd in rushing TDs per game (1.5) last season.
BET BILLS (+115).
Against the spread
Buffalo +2.5 (-110) should cover, but this number isn’t very enticing unless it hits a flat 3. If you have a book that offers 2-team, 6-point teasers at -120 or cheaper, Buffalo +8.5 is a good teaser leg going through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Otherwise, PASS on the spread. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings, with the Dolphins struggling to contain Allen (3.5 total TDs per game). The Bills started slowly in their season opener vs. Arizona, but still scored 24 points in the 2nd half once they got more comfortable in their offense.
Miami’s offense was disappointing in Week 1, but it’s expected that the Dolphins, who were 2nd in the NFL last season with 6.4 yards per play, will look more like last year’s high-powered offense in Week 2.
BET OVER 49 (-110).
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