Tag: Bucs Analysis

Extending Antoine Winfield Jr. was the Bucs’ best, only option

The Buccaneers did the right thing making Antoine Winfield Jr. the highest paid defensive back in the NFL.

Sometimes, breaking the bank is the exactly the right thing to do. The Buccaneers signed All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. to a record-breaking four-year, $84.1 million dollar contract yesterday, and it was their best and only option for him.

For many years prior to drafting Winfield Jr., the Bucs had to overpay players, typically free agents coming from other teams, to sign in Tampa Bay. It rarely worked out for the Bucs, trapping the team in a vortex of mediocrity for more than a decade.

Making Antoine Winfield Jr. the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history is not that. He earned every cent of his new contract and will likely continue earning it over the life of the deal.

The do-it-all safety is a very rare breed in today’s NFL. Most safeties specialize in either defending the run or the pass, rarely both, and even fewer can call themselves reliable pass rushers.

Winfield Jr. ticks off all three boxes. Since he was drafted in 2020, Winfield Jr. leads all safeties in fumbles forced (11), sacks (15) and quarterback hits (21) and is among the top five in solo tackles (266) and tackles for a loss (18). He is also 11th in passes deflected (27) and 19th in interceptions (7).

His growth as a pass defender last year is what put him over the top as one of the best defensive players in the NFL. In addition to recording career highs in interceptions (3) and pass breakups (8), Winfield Jr. had the highest forced incompletion rate (21%) per Pro Football Focus.

Winfield Jr. was also a primary reason the Bucs made the playoffs in 2023. His knack for big plays single-handedly led to a few victories. Winfield Jr.’s sack-fumble of Kirk Cousins in Week 1 led to a Chase McLaughlin field goal, a three point margin that gave Tampa Bay the victory. In Week 18 with the playoffs on the line, his forced fumble of DJ Chark just before he broke the plane to score kept Carolina from taking the lead and ultimately kept them from mounting a comeback.

Winfield Jr. brings talent and tenacity that teams simply do not let slip away. He easily would have made the same if not more had Tampa Bay let him walk away in free agency. Resetting the defensive back market is a small price to pay relative to the damage it would have done to the talent level and morale of the Bucs’ roster.

Besides his true game-breaking ability, the Bucs also had to extend Winfield Jr. this offseason for very practical reasons. Heading into this week, Tampa Bay had less than $1 million in cap space, not enough even to sign their draft class.  With the new contract, Winfield Jr.’s 2024 cap figure is around $7 million, creating $10 million in cap space according to Fox Sports’ Greg Auman. The Bucs had already leveraged the other extensions they signed this offseason to maximize cap space, so only Winfield Jr.’s deal could give them the necessary breathing room.

The contract is a symbol of what Winfield Jr. is expected to be moving forward: a foundational pillar of not only Tampa Bay’s defense, but the entire team. He was voted a captain for the first time in 2023, and it is a near-impossibility that he will not be again. Whatever happens in 2024 and beyond, Antoine Winfield Jr. will be a central figure in Tampa Bay football.

2024 Bucs offseason preview: Quarterback

For our first position in our offseason preview, we take a look at quarterback — and the man who will likely be returning as Tampa Bay’s signal caller in 2024.

No Buccaneers offseason would be complete without some degree of quarterback drama. Years of Tom Brady’s “will-he-won’t-he” retirement speculation have just transformed into a question of whether the Bucs can retain Baker Mayfield and for what price. Leading the Bucs to a division title and a wild card win, Mayfield rehabilitated his reputation in Tampa Bay and proved himself a legitimate NFL starter.

Last offseason, Tampa Bay signed Mayfield for a song, a mere $4 million plus incentives. Despite the under-the-floor expectations, Mayfield ended up being the best quarterback in the NFC South, leading the pack in EPA per play (0.131) by a wide margin and finishing top-10 among all quarterbacks. Mayfield was among the best quarterbacks on third down, ranking fifth in EPA per play (0.220).

Given how well he performed last year, Mayfield is in line for another starting job. For Tampa Bay, he is likely their best and only real option for 2024. With their first pick in the 2024 draft not coming until the 26th-overall selection, the Bucs will be far out of range for the top quarterback prospects. In free agency, Mayfield is second perhaps only to Kirk Cousins, who will likely command a much larger contract.

Mayfield has expressed willingness to return to Tampa Bay but has caveated that desire with his expectations for the Bucs’ 2024 offseason moves, including a Mike Evans return and a strong replacement for offensive coordinator Dave Canales. The latter may already be fulfilled with the hiring of Liam Coen, who was Mayfield’s offensive coordinator during his brief stint with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022.

The trick to re-signing Mayfield will be his price. While the Bucs do have $36 million in cap space this offseason, they also have several additional key free agents including Evans, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Lavonte David. Ideally, the Bucs would be able to negotiate a deal closer to Seahawks QB Geno Smith’s three-year, $75 million deal than Giants QB Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million contract.

If Mayfield does move on, the Bucs’ in-house options are limited. 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask failed to beat Mayfield for the starting job last year and three years into his NFL career has yet to start a game. Veteran John Wolford is a capable backup but is not really a starting option.

Former Bucs head coach Bruce Arians, now a senior advisor to general manager Jason Licht, has indicated that he is a fan of Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. The Heisman runner-up was one of the best quarterbacks in college football last season and could be a Day 2 pick, still in range for the Bucs.

All things considered, it is likely that Mayfield will stay with Tampa Bay. Neither party is flush with alternatives, and their 2023 success could be reproduced. While Tampa Bay may add a rookie, their best bet to secure a starter is to run it back with Mayfield.

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Three players the Bucs may need to replace in 2024

The Bucs may need to look elsewhere to replace these players if they leave in free agency:

NFL free agency is a dirty business where teams often leave players out in the cold after a disappointing season. While the Buccaneers surprised many with how successful they were in 2023, they still have some hard decisions to make about players coming to the end of their contracts.

Last season was rough on the Bucs’ cap situation, which included over $75 million in dead cap from their championship window. This forced Tampa Bay to make some bargain free agent signings and pushed off the potential extensions of players like Devin White.

While the free agent signings largely did not pan out, The deferred extensions may end up saving the Bucs money long-term, particularly given White’s regression on the field and the improvement of the linebackers behind him.

Here are three pending free agents the Bucs would need to replace to this offseason:

What went right, what went wrong for the Bucs in 2023

It was a mixed bag for Tampa Bay in their 9-8 season — see what the Bucs did well and what they can improve on going into 2024.

Very few anticipated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reach the heights they did during the 2023 NFL season. When QB Tom Brady announced his second retirement after the Bucs’ loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the 2022 Wild Card round, it triggered a complete reset of the offense. Trying to return back to a division-contending level-of-play while also dealing with several personnel changes was a large task to overcome as Tampa Bay looked ahead to the 2023 season.

Despite all odds, the Bucs won the NFC South for the third consecutive season and reached the NFC Divisional round, where it fell 31-23 to the Detroit Lions. There were several things that went right during Tampa Bay’s transition year. However, there was plenty that could’ve been improved upon. Before we get to what went wrong, we’ll highlight some of the good from the Bucs’ 2023 season.

Studs and Duds from Tampa Bay’s 2023 season

We’ve done it game by game, but now, we’re taking a broader look at Tampa Bay’s studs and duds for the whole year:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ season didn’t end up where the team wanted it to, but given preseason expectations and the rocky nature of its regular season, Tampa Bay’s 2023 campaign could be considered a rousing success.

The Bucs won the NFC South for the third year in a row and even won a playoff game in the Wild Card Round against a team they were betting underdogs against in the Philadelphia Eagles. And while it wasn’t perfect all the way through, there were quite a few stars that propelled the team forward — and, as it wasn’t perfect all the way through, there were a few players that may have contributed to that.

Bucs Wire has done its Studs and Duds for every game of the 2023 season, and now, we’re taking a broader look at the year as a whole. Here are our studs and duds for Tampa Bay’s latest campaign:

BucsWire’s 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Awards

The season is over for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and there are plenty of commendations to give. See how we doled out our 2023 team awards:

The curtains have closed, the conference championship is set, and after falling 31-23 to the Detroit Lions in the divisional round, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers flip the page and turn their focus to the offseason.

Each season of football is full of ups and downs, but the Bucs’ 2023 season in particular felt more dramatic as each week went by. Several players rose to the occasion when they were called upon, but a select few stood out amongst the crowd.

BucsWire staff has made picks for each game all year, and now that the season is over, we got together to choose our team awards for the 2023 season. See who we picked for each category below:

Five free agents the Bucs shouldn’t re-sign for 2024

Who do you think the Bucs should let go in free agency for 2024?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have some decisions to make in the offseason.

The Bucs have 18 unrestricted free agents heading into 2024 (and three free agents of other designations). The team made do with a tight salary cap in 2023, and not only will they have more space in 2024, but they can make some more by not re-signing a few players. While there are plenty of players that the team will want to keep, there are others who may not be as crucial going forward. And while some players may not have played bad, they could be easily replaceable going forward.

Here are five players that the Bucs should not re-sign heading into the 2024 offseason:

Bucs Report Card: How we graded Tampa Bay’s Wild Card win

The Bucs put in one of their best shifts of the year against the Eagles — see how we graded their performance:

If you’re gonna win, it pays to win big — and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did exactly that on Monday.

The Bucs destroyed the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 on Monday, punching a ticket to the Divisional Round and looking very good while doing it. The team fired on all fronts, taking advantage of a broken Eagles team to sail into the next part of the postseason. We here at Bucs Wire like to grade every aspect of the team’s performance, and this week, you won’t see a lot of complaints here from an overall stifling shift from Tampa Bay.

Here’s how we graded the offense, defense, special teams and coaching for the Bucs after their big Wild Card win:

Studs and duds from Tampa Bay’s 9-0 win over the Panthers

See who we thought was hot and who we thought was not in Tampa Bay’s division-clinching victory.

To say Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers was a rough outing may be putting it nicely.

Both teams struggled on Sunday, with neither team scoring a touchdown, but at the end of the day, the Bucs came out on top. The team won 9-0 to take victory in Charlotte and punch a ticket to the playoffs, and despite the slow proceedings, the team got to wear its hat and t-shirts and fly home knowing it’ll survive for at least one more week.

With a 9-0 score comes some studs to stifle the Panthers and some duds to hurt the offense — check out how we saw these players in Week 18 below:

Studs and duds from Tampa Bay’s rough 23-13 loss to New Orleans

Tampa Bay played one of their worst games of the year in a time where they needed to play one of their best.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers needed a big game against the New Orleans Saints to clinch the division. Instead, they got annihilated in their own stadium.

The Bucs dropped an incredibly ugly game against the New Orleans Saints 23-13 in a game they never had control of at any point, and it delayed their hat and t-shirt moment to next week against the Carolina Panthers. There were mostly duds in this game, but there were a precious few studs who performed even if it was far too late in the game when they did so.

Here are Bucs Wire’s studs and duds from a game we’d all rather forget: