The 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks (3-0) go for a sweep against the Miami Heat (0-3) Saturday in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series at American Airlines Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Not only are the Bucks up 3-0, but they are thoroughly dominating this series from a statistical standpoint as well.
Milwaukee is owning the glass—31.3% in offensive-rebounding rate compared to Miami’s 17.3%—and outshooting the Heat 54.1% to 44.9% in effective field-goal percentage.
No one on Miami has gotten it going offensively and Milwaukee SF Giannis Antetokounmpo has made it a point to shut down SF Jimmy Butler, who’s averaging just 15.3 points per game on 40.4% true shooting (.306/.308/.667).
Bucks at Heat: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:26 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Heat +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
- Against the spread/ATS: Bucks -4.5 (-115) | Heat +4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bucks at Heat: Key injuries
Bucks
- SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin) probable
Heat
- None
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Bucks at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 116, Heat 103
Money line (ML)
PASS even though Milwaukee is clearly the right side because I’d rather just lay it with the Bucks -4.5 (-115) than play the money line of -190.
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Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the BUCKS -4.5 (-115) for 1 unit because they are imposing their will on the Heat with size and defensive tenacity.
Everyone in Milwaukee’s starting five has a defensive rating of 99 or below and Miami doesn’t have a key contributor taller than 6-foot-10 whereas the Bucks have a legit 7-footer in C Brook Lopez and Giannis stands at 6-10.
Furthermore, Bucks’ first-year PG Jrue Holiday seems to be worth the draft capital Milwaukee sent to the New Orleans Pelicans for him, and the massive contract he was signed to following his arrival to the Bucks.
Holiday is averaging 16.7 points per game on 52.5% shooting, 7.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per game with a plus-30 net rating in this series.
Equally as important is how Holiday is defending Heat starting PG Goran Dragic, who has a minus-13 net rating and just 2.3 assists per game.
Finally, I don’t see a gentleman’s sweep in this series (when the team up 3-0 gives up Game 4 but goes on to win the series 4-1 in Game 5) because of the embarrassing nature of Milwaukee’s upset loss to Miami last postseason in the bubble.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 221.5 (-110) for a half unit because that’s where the “sharp” side of the market is betting and Miami could turn Game 4 into a “rock fight” since it cannot shoot the ball like last season in the bubble.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the money wagered is on the Under, but a majority of the bets placed have been on the Over. Typically in sports gambling, it’s wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd.
Also, Miami is 11th in 3-point shooting this postseason and 19th during the regular season whereas the Heat were second in 3-point shooting last season.
Miami played at the second-slowest pace during the regular season and it should slow this game down since the Heat will probably get scorched if Game 5 turns into a shootout.
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