Baker Mayfield has improved this season. If the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to win Sunday, they might already have the recipe.
Super Wild-Card Weekend comes to a close Sunday night when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cleveland Browns. This game is the third meeting between the teams (having split the season series) and is a rematch of a Week 17 game won by Cleveland.
Of course there are some storylines surrounding this game, most notably the fact that Browns head coach and potential Coach of the Year winner Kevin Stefanski, will be unable to be with the team due to COVID-19. That obviously poses challenges for the Browns.
For the Steelers, however, they’ll need to contend with a Cleveland offense that Stefanski rebuilt this season. A reason why the first-time head coach is in the running for such an award is the job that he has done with quarterback Baker Mayfield. Over this season Stefanski’s offense has catered to Mayfield’s strengths (using some designed rollouts, playing to his creativity) while implementing some play-action designs to put him in a position to be successful.
Both numbers and film bear that out. A season ago Mayfield was at his best using play-action, and that continued into this season. According to data from Pro Football Focus Mayfield has an NFL passer rating of 121.9 when using play-action this season, a jump from his 84.8 mark on plays without play-action. Mayfield also has a touchdown/interception split of 12/1 on play-action, a massive improvement from his 14/7 split on plays without play-action.
While that might have been expected, what perhaps was not was his improvement from a clean pocket. Doug Farrar outlined this over the summer, and here are some more numbers. When kept clean in 2019 Mayfield posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 71.5 according to PFF, ranking him last among qualified passers. His NFL passer rating of 84.2 when kept clean in 2019 ranked him, again, dead last.
This season? Perhaps the influence of Stefanski and the play-action designs can be seen in Mayfield’s numbers from a clean pocket. According to data from PFF Mayfield Adjusted Completion Percentage when kept clean checked in at 77.2, enough to place him 22nd in the league, and not dead last. His NFL passer rating when kept clean also rose, jumping to 108.9, placing him 11th.
Pressure, however, is more of a mixed bag for Mayfield in 2020. Mayfield’s Adjusted Completion Percentage of 70.4% according to PFF places him sixth among qualified passers, but some of the other numbers are bleak. Mayfield has an NFL passer rating of 47.7 when pressured this season, ranking him 25th in the league and behind players such as Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater and Carson Wentz. Where Mayfield had a TD/INT split of 24/4 from clean pockets, that ratio dipped dramatically to 2/4 when pressured this season.
As for what the Steelers did to him, over the two games against Pittsburgh Mayfield was pressured on a combined twenty passing plays. He completed five of nine attempts for 29 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. He was sacked eight times, and his NFL passer rating was just 22.2%.
To be fair, back in Week 6 Mayfield was dealing with injuries, so that context is critical, but the numbers – and the film – illustrate just how much the pressure from Pittsburgh impacted the Browns.
It started early back in Week 6. On Mayfield’s first passing attempt the Browns tried to run a mirrored “Hoss” (hitch/seam) concept against a Steelers’ Cover-2 scheme. Both of the seam routes are open, but pressure off the edge from T.J. Watt forced Mayfield to pull the football down, and his throwaway attempt was in danger of being intercepted:
Then there was this play from Week 17. The Browns face a 1st-and-goal at the Pittsburgh four-yard line. They run play-action, and Mayfield tries to hit David Njoku in the back of the end zone. Late pressure in the interior forces Mayfield to adjust his arm angle and his footwork on the throw, and Minkah Fitzpatrick steps in front of the pass to deflect it away, preventing the score:
One final example of the impact Pittsburgh’s pressure had on Mayfield is this missed opportunity for the Browns back in Week 6. Facing a second-and-3 early in the game, Mayfield executes a play-action fake and looks to strike downfield. Beckham runs a vertical route on the right while Jarvis Landry runs a deep crosser working left-to-right. Landry is open, but Mayfield feels the protection start to break down and rather than hitting the deep crosser, he tries to scramble and is sacked:
Mayfield has been a much-improved quarterback this season, and Stefanski deserves credit for the turnaround. But the young QB has still been susceptible to pressure, and the Steelers have two games of evidence to back that up. If Pittsburgh is going to slow down the Cleveland offense Sunday night, pressuring Mayfield is a must.
