Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
Here are six stats that summarize the Chargers’ win over the Browns in Week 5.
The Chargers traveled to face the Browns on Sunday, and it was a thrilling battle that came down to the wire.
Nevertheless, Los Angeles was gifted the victory as rookie kicker Cade York missed a 54-yard field goal.
Here are six numbers that tell the story of the Bolts’ win over the Browns.
The Browns went for it on 4th down a lot more aggressively than most other teams
One area where Kevin Stefanski stood out in his rookie season as the Cleveland Browns head coach came in an area where many fans wouldn’t expect it. Stefanski, known for a more conservative style of offense, was unusually aggressive on fourth downs.
Granted it’s just one season, but Stefanski showed his willingness to push the envelope on fourth down much further than most of his coaching peers in 2020. That’s the findings of a study from Football Outsiders, which gauged the relative aggression on fourth downs. Stefanski came in third amongst full-time coaches in 2020.
Focus on the “AI” column in the chart here,
The numbers here can be confusing, so here are the Football Outsiders criteria for judgment,
Aggressiveness Index numbers center around 1.0 and generally describe how much more (or less) likely each coach is to go for it on fourth down compared to his peers; for example, a coach with 1.20 AI is roughly 20 percent more likely to go for it than an average coach historically would in equivalent situations. There are other methodologies now for measuring fourth-down aggressiveness, mostly based on win probability analysis.
In terms of raw data, the Browns went for it on fourth down 23 times in 2020. They were successful on eight of those attempts, though that is not sorted through the criteria filter used by Football Outsiders here. Only 14 of those attempts qualified.
It will be interesting to see if Stefanski keeps up the more aggressive play-calling on fourth down. The move towards analytics across the NFL generally agrees that teams should go for it on fourth down far more often than they actually do.
The offense has fallen off without Teller in the lineup
For a guy who was considered the biggest question mark on the Cleveland Browns offensive line entering the season, Wyatt Teller has instead proved the most indispensable. The Browns have sorely missed the right guard since he left Week 5 with a calf injury.
Teller hasn’t played since, and his status remains week-to-week. The Cleveland offense has not been the same without him. Yet it can be tough to quantify exactly how much an offense misses a lineman.
In Teller’s case, we have some data now with enough of a sample size to demonstrate the right guard’s absence.
From Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar, with a nod to Sports Info Solutions,
Teller has been out since Week 5 with a calf injury, and the differences in Cleveland’s offense are easy to spot. With Teller this season, the Browns have averaged 6.8 yards per carry, and 3.9 without him. Their blown block pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions, is 5.5% with Teller, and 9.2% without him. And Cleveland’s total Offensive EPA is 0.14 with Teller, and -0.07 without him.
That’s a pretty striking difference with and without Teller. The data there separates out the simultaneous loss of RB Nick Chubb, who was the NFL’s third-leading rusher when he went on injured reserve.
Teller is hopeful to return in Week 10 following the team’s much-needed bye week.
Only 2 WRs had more big plays from the slot than Landry in 2019
When NFL offenses throw to the slot receiver, it typically doesn’t produce big yardage. Most of the time the slot receiver works underneath and over the middle, not blazing down the field for big plays.
Slot receivers who can break tackles, create space for themselves or that have the versatility to work deeper routes into the repertoire are special weapons. In 2019, Jarvis Landry was one of those special weapons from the slot.
Only two receivers produced more big plays from the slot than Landry did for Cleveland last season, per Pro Football Focus. “Juice” squeezed out an impressive 19 gains of 15 yards or more while operating from the slot. Only Randall Cobb and Chris Godwin posted more than Landry.
Most slot catches of 15+ yards in 2019:
Randall Cobb – 22
Chris Godwin – 21
Jarvis Landry – 19
Tyler Boyd – 18
Tyler Lockett – 18
Robert Woods – 18 pic.twitter.com/ZnvJD0l3Ie— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 28, 2020
The offense is changing some under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, but the hope is the new coach realizes how valuable of an asset Landry can be from the slot.
Baker Mayfield isn’t the first prominent QB to have a sophomore slump. What happened with other QBs beyond that Year 2 decline
The sophomore slump proved a very real phenomenon for Baker Mayfield. Cleveland’s quarterback wasn’t as sharp or composed in his second season at the helm for the Browns in 2019. It was a stark contrast to his record-setting rookie campaign in 2018, a great debut that landed Mayfield national endorsement deals and strong MVP odds.
That momentum is now cooled after both Mayfield and his supporting cast played at a lower level in his second year. Now Mayfield is on the spot to prove the hardships of his sophomore slump are a building block, a necessary setback on the way to bigger and better things.
There is ample historical precedent for precisely that happening for Mayfield. Several great quarterbacks suffered the sophomore slump after a superior rookie season and then rebounded nicely. The list goes back as far as Hall-of-Famer Fran Tarkenton.
Here are some recent quarterbacks who fell off from Year 1 to Year 2 and how they wound up performing in the longer-term once the sophomore slump was in the rearview mirror.
