The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) host the Denver Broncos (3-1) Sunday for their Week 5 showdown at Heinz Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Broncos vs. Steelers prop bet odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Denver suffered its first loss of the season in Week 4, 23-7, at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. Teddy Bridgewater exited the game early with a concussion but passed the NFL’s protocol throughout the practice week and is good to go for Sunday.
Pittsburgh lost its third straight 27-17 last week on the road to the Green Bay Packers. The Steelers continue to struggle on offense as they rank just 27th in yards per game and 28th in points per game through four weeks.
Broncos at Steelers prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Broncos RB Melvin Gordon UNDER 44.5 rushing yards (-115)
Gordon missing practice Wednesday and being limited on the rest of the week with a lower leg injury could mean he gets a reduced workload Sunday. Also, Denver’s coaching staff raved about rookie RB Javonte Williams during the preseason. So I expect Williams to get more snaps this week.
Furthermore, the cluster to Denver’s wide receiver group is going to hurt the offense as a whole. Pittsburgh should bring more defenders in the box to stop Denver’s ground game since Broncos WRs Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler are out with injury and Courtland Sutton is listed as “questionable”.
Lastly, Pittsburgh will be the toughest defense Denver has faced thus far. The Broncos have played the seventh-easiest schedule of opposing offenses (according to Football Outsiders) and rank only 27th in rushing success rate.
Unfortunately Broncos fans, all these factors add up to UNDER M. Gordon 44.5 rushing yards (-115).
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Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater OVER 10.5 (-115) rushing yards
Not only is Bridgewater a little more mobile than people give him credit for, but all the injuries to Denver’s skill position players might force Bridgewater to use his legs more than he’d like.
Bridgewater averages 12.0 rushing yards per game for his career and 11.5 rushing yards per game this season. Plus the Over on Bridgewater’s rushing yards prop may be the “sharp” side since it’s more expensive than the Under.
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Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-127)
Denver’s pass defense is one of the best in the NFL. The Broncos have only given up three passing TDs this season, rank seventh in pass defense DVOA by Football Outsiders and second in dropback expected points added (EPA).
On the other hand, Big Ben and Pittsburgh’s aerial attack have been grounded this season. Roethlisberger only has four passing TDs and the third-lowest TD percentage. Also, Pittsburgh ranks second-to-last in passing success rate.
Ultimately, I don’t see a lot of points being scored in Broncos-Steelers Sunday, and this isn’t the spot for a Big Ben bounce-back game.
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