In a featherweight bout in the main event, Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 3 at UBS Arena in Elmont, N.Y. Below, we analyze the UFC on ABC 3 Ortega vs. Rodriguez odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11 a.m. ET, followed by the main card on ABC/ESPN+ starts at 2 p.m.
Ortega lost last time out in a title fight at UFC 266 against Alexander Volkanovski, and he is 1-2 across his last 3 bouts. Both of the losses were title fights, so the record can be a bit deceiving.
His last 2 outings against Volk and The Korean Zombie have resulted in unanimous decisions, but he had 8 straight fights finish inside the distance since arriving at the UFC level prior to those battles.
Rodriguez, a.k.a. “El Pantera”, is also coming off a loss last time out. He suffered a unanimous-decision defeat at the hands of Max Holloway, or perhaps it would’ve been he, not Holloway, that faced Volkanovski for the featherweight belt at UFC 276 two weeks ago.
Like Ortega, Rodriguez has gone the distance in each of his last 2 bouts, but he had 4 straight fights inside the distance prior to those matches.
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UFC on ABC 3 Ortega vs. Rodriguez odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:15 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Ortega -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Rodriguez +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
- Total rounds: Over 4.5 (+102) | Under 4.5 (-140)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+112) | No (-155)
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UFC on ABC 3 Ortega vs. Rodriguez picks and predictions
Records: Ortega (15-2-0) | Rodriguez (14-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
This is going to be a banger. This bout features two hungry fighters looking to work their way back into position for a shot at the championship belt, and neither can afford a loss.
ORTEGA (-170) is a moderate favorite, but he isn’t a significant risk considering how well he has fought lately. Yes, he has losses to Volkanovski and Holloway, but there’s no shame in those setbacks. He took the current champ the distance, and this is a guy who has knocked out Frankie Edgar and Clay Guida and submitted Renato Moicano and Cub Swanson.
Ortega can do it in many ways, showing off his tremendous technique to wow the judges. ORTEGA BY POINTS (+240) is worth a roll of the dice for the method of victory.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (+112) at plus-money is the way to go. Each of these fighters scored plenty of stoppages early in their UFC careers, but as the quality level of opponents has picked up, so have the decisions.
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