Tag: Brewers Twins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Brewers (34-32) and Minnesota Twins (33-33) open a 2-game interleague series on Tuesday after both teams were off on Monday. First pitch from Target Field is at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Brewers won 3 of 4 in 2022

The Brewers just finished a 6-game homestand losing 4 straight, including being swept by the 18-50 Athletics.

The Twins have lost 6 out of their last 8 games and are coming off a 7-6 loss on Sunday to the Toronto Blue Jays, but they took 2 out of 3 games.

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Brewers at Twins projected starters

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Burnes (5-4, 3.36 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 77 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 10-2 win over Baltimore Orioles
  • Four of his last 5 outings have been quality starts

Lopez (3-3, 4.25 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 78 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays
  • Has 5.59 ERA over last 6 starts (29 IP)

Brewers at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+165) | Twins +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Brewers at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Twins 3

Moneyline

The Brewers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings of the 2 teams. They are 5-3 in their last 8 road games.

The Twins are 18-14 at home this season, but are 4-6 in their last 10 at Target Field. They have lost 6 of their last 8 overall.

Burnes has been steady this season and is coming off 8 scoreless innings in his last outing.

BET BREWERS (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

The Brewers are 29-37 ATS overall this season and 13-22 ATS when favored. The Twins are 14-11 ATS as the underdog, which makes them a slightly better bet, but with the line at -200 for the Twins to cover and not bing able to trust the Brewers to cover, stick with the moneyline.

PASS.

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Over/Under

The Twins’ last 2 games had more than 7 total runs but their previous 6 did not. Five of the last 6 meetings between the teams have had more than 7 total runs.

The Under is 5-0 in the Twins’ last 5 games following a loss while  the Under is 4-0-1 in the Brewers’ last 5 series openers.

BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (48-39) and the Minnesota Twins (48-40) open a 2-game interleague set Tuesday at Target Field in Minneapolis. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: This is the first meeting of the season. Minnesota won 4 of the 6 meetings in 2021.

The Brewers dropped 2 of 3 games at home to the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend and are now 4-6 across their last 10 outings. Milwaukee is 6-2 in interleague play this season.

The Twins won Sunday at the Texas Rangers to snap a 3-game losing skid. Minnesota has won just 3 of 8 interleague games in 2022.

Brewers vs. Twins projected starters

RHP Jason Alexander vs. RHP Josh Winder

Alexander (2-1, 4.75 ERA) makes his 7th start and 9th appearance overall. He has a 1.72 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 4.3 K/9 through 36 IP.

  • Is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and .329 opponent batting average in 20 IP across 3 starts and 2 relief appearances on the road.
  • Will be making his first-career interleague start.
  • Allowed 2 R (1 ER) and 1 H with 2 BB in 2/3 IP in a relief appearance at the Tampa Bay Rays June 28 in his only interleague appearance.

Winder (4-2, 3.12 ERA) makes his 6th start and 10th appearance overall. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 40 1/3 IP.

  • Is 1-1 with a 3.14 ERA and .231 OBA in 14 1/3 IP across 2 starts and 2 relief appearances at home this season.
  • Allowed 1 ER, 0 H and 2 BB with a K in 1 IP in a relief appearance against the Los Angeles Dodgers April 12 in his only interleague outing this season.

Brewers vs. Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:42 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Twins -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-175) | Twins -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Brewers vs. Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Twins 4

Money line

The BREWERS (+115) are a decent underdog play in the opener of this interleague quick hitter. Milwaukee has won 4 straight interleague games, while going 7-2 in its last 9 on the road.

The Twins are moderate favorites despite the fact they’re 2-6 in their last 8 interleague home games, while going 5-16 in their last 21 following a victory.

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Run line/Against the spread

The BREWERS +1.5 (-175) have a decent price if you’d like a little insurance and just don’t trust the visitors to win straight up.

The Twins have failed to record a victory in their last 4 games following an off day, too. Back the Brewers.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (+100) is worth a small-unit play, as we have a pair of subpar pitchers squaring off against each other.

The Over has also hit in 5 straight interleague games and 5 of the last 6 road outings for the Brewers.

The Twins have cashed the Over at a 5-0-1 clip across their last 6 games overall, while going 4-0-1 in their last 5 against right-handed starting pitchers.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (57-72) look to pull off the three-game sweep when they host the Milwaukee Brewers (78-52) Sunday for the series finale at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Minnesota won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-4 and has cooled off what was a hot Milwaukee team that won eight of its previous 11 games before meeting up with the Twins.

Season series: Twins lead 4-1.

LHP Aaron Ashby is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Ashby has yet to earn a decision and has a 4.15 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 9 K across three starts and one bullpen outing in his rookie season.

RHP Griffin Jax is on the hill for the Twins. Jax is 3-2 with a 6.29 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 over seven starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-9, with 4 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 4 K Tuesday at the Boston Red Sox.
  • Home splits: 2-0 with a 5.23 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.26 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB in two starts and three bullpen outings.

Brewers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Twins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+102) | Twins +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Twins 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-155) for a half unit because Milwaukee has the most victories over righty starters in the majors, the highest winning percentage on the road and a significant edge in the pitching department.

Ashby is Milwaukee’s No. 1 rated prospect according to FanGraphs and has pitched eight scoreless innings with 1 walk and 9 strikeouts since giving up 4 earned runs in his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs.

On the other hand, Jax grades in the 18th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage and barrel rate. Also, Minnesota’s bullpen has the second-highest home run per nine-inning rate and the seventh-worst FIP.

The Brewers are 14-4 outright this season when facing a right-handed starter on the road as money line favorites of -140 or greater with a plus-22.5 return on investment and an average score of 7.2-3.0. The Twins are just 2-4 outright as home underdogs vs. a lefty starter with a minus-23.8% ROI and an average score of 3.0-6.5.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Brewers -1.5 (+102) isn’t a fat enough payout considering they have a rookie getting the start, Minnesota is 14-9 ATS as a home underdog and Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in interleague games.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-120) since the oddsmaker has liability on the Under already hence the higher vig and the presumed “sharp” money is hammering the Under despite a bunch of Over-friendly situational trends.

Nearly 90% of the cash wagered on the Brewers-Twins total has been on the Under which has caused oddsmakers to move this total down from the 10-run opener, according to Pregame.com.

Aside from both lineups struggling against their respective opponents’ pitching handedness, I cannot make sense of the total for this game and would only put a TINY WAGER on the UNDER 9.5 (-120).

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Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (78-50) kick off a three-game interleague series with the Minnesota Twins (55-72) Friday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee had a four-game win streak snapped Thursday when it lost the series finale to the Cincinnati Reds but has won seven of its last 10 games and 14 of the last 20.

Minnesota lost five of its previous six games, all on the road, against the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

Season series: Twins lead 2-1.

LHP Eric Lauer gets the start for the Brewers. He is 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 13 starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 3 K in Milwaukee’s 9-6 victory over the Washington Nationals Saturday.
  • 2021 road stats: 1-1 with a 2.97 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB across four starts and three relief outings.

LHP Andrew Albers (0-0, 2.25 ERA) makes his first start of the year for the Twins. He picked up a no-decision in a relief appearance over 4 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Minnesota’s 7-5 loss at the Yankees Aug. 19.

Brewers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Twins +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+111) | Twins +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Brewers 7, Twins 5

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit since they have a definitive edge in both relief pitching and hitting. Also, Albers is making his first start since 2017 so Milwaukee probably has an edge in the starting pitching duel even though Lauer is a back-of-the-rotation guy for Milwaukee.

Milwaukee’s lineup is second in WAR and sixth in wRC+ since the All-Star break while the Twins rank 23rd in WAR and 17th in wRC+ over that same span.

Furthermore, Minnesota’s bullpen has the second-highest HR/9 and the third-worst WAR whereas the Brew Crew’s relievers are 39-16 with the seventh-best xFIP in MLB.

Lastly, Lauer is 3-0 on the road this season with the Brewers listed as money line favorites of -130 or greater.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Brewers are just 1-2 ATS in Lauer’s three victories as a road favorite of -130 and greater. On top of that, Milwaukee is just 3-9 ATS in interleague contests and Minnesota is 7-6 ATS in those spots.

The payout isn’t high enough on the Brewers to win by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s backing the Under at a 70% clip, according to Pregame.com.

I’m cool with fading the market in this spot because the Brewers are 21-15-3 O/U as road favorites and the Twins have played to the Over at the highest rate in MLB at 75-46-6 O/U.

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