Tag: Brewers Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (35-30) and Cincinnati Reds (23-40) meet Friday at 6:40 p.m. ET to open a 3-game series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Milwaukee leads 4-2.

The Brewers dropped 2 of 3 to the Mets in a midweek series in New York. They are just 3-11 across their last 14 games.

The Reds are returning home after a 3-3 road trip that included stops in St. Louis and Arizona. The Cincinnati offense stumbled in a couple of those road games but has otherwise had a good month: the Reds own a robust .770 OPS in June.

Brewers at Reds projected starters

LHP Eric Lauer vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Lauer (5-2, 3.36 ERA) is tabbed for his 12th start of the season. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 61 2/3 IP.

  • Coughed up 3 home runs and 8 runs in his last start (5 IP at Washington Saturday).
  • Has struggled against Cincinnati the last three years (5.48 ERA since 2019).

Greene (3-7, 5.10 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 60 IP.

  • Has allowed just 1R on 3 hits over his last 2 games (12 IP).
  • Has been tough on lefty bats (.610 OPS allowed), which is a key against a left-leaning Milwaukee order.

Brewers at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Reds +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Brewers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Brewers 4

Money line

Greene yields a lot of fly-ball and barreled-up contact, and he has paid for it with an ERA over 5. But perhaps the price has been too steep alongside the rest of his electric skill set.

With a rested bullpen, BACK THE REDS (-110).

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Run line/Against the spread

Milwaukee does play a lot of 1-run games. Again, the Reds and the runs are a lean here, but PASS on any price north of -165.

Over/Under

In the Reds’ last 6 series openers, the Under has gone 5-0-1. And that would be the play here save for a warmed up, wind-out Great American Ball Park as a venue.

On the 9.5 total, strike if the price is right, say -105 or better. We’re going to LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-107) because Greene has been really good, and neither offense has been great.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (87-55) continue their three-game series with the Cleveland Indians (69-70) at Progressive Field with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee hammered Cleveland 10-3 in the series opener as Brewers trade deadline acquisition IF Eduardo Escobar went yard twice starting RHP Adrian Houser had 6 IP, 0 ER (2 runs scored), 1 H, 5 BB and 5 K.

Season series: Brewers lead 1-0.

RHP Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.38 ERA) is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Burnes has a 0.96 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 through 144 IP across 24 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 6-5 home win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • Burnes is 5-1 all-time in interleague games with a 1.42 ERA (56 IP, 9 ER), 0.71 WHIP and 5.7 K/BB through eight starts and four bullpen outings.

RHP Zach Plesac (10-4, 4.53 ERA) takes the hill for the Indians. Plesac has a 1.17 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 119 1/3 IP across 21 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 11-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 5 K Sunday at the Boston Red Sox.
  • Home splits: 3-1 with a 4.29 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.13 WHIP and 3.9 K/BB in 10 starts.

Brewers at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:24 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Indians +160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-112) | Indians +1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Indians 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-200) only because I’d rather include them in a parlay with another favorite for an even- or plus-money payout than bet Milwaukee outright. Also, the Brew Crew on the run line offers better value.

However, Burnes has the third-best odds on Tipico Sportsbook to win the NL Cy Young and has been lights out on the road. He leads the majors in FIP (1.58), K/BB (7.0) and home run per nine-inning rate (0.3), and is 6-0 with a 1.83 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 10.2 K/BB across 11 road starts.

Furthermore, the Indians have the second-worst winning percentage as home underdogs at 8-21 overall, which is a pretty big sample size. I’d RISK only 1 unit on Milwaukee’s money line rather than bet 1 unit. What I mean by that is if your standard bet is $100 then put that on BREWERS (-200) to hopefully earn a $50 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET BREWERS -1.5 (-112) for 1 unit since they have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting).

Cleveland is 14-15 ATS as a home underdog and Milwaukee is 26-19 ATS as a road favorite, which is the second-best cover rate in that spot across the league.

There’s been a “sharp line move” towards Milwaukee with more than 95% of the cash wagered in the ATS market being on the Brewers according to Pregame.com. Sportsbooks have responded by increasing Milwaukee’s run line price from a -103 consensus to the current number.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8.5 (+105) because Plesac has pitched well in his last two outings and Burnes can shut down this below-average Cleveland lineup.

That said, this is a “pros vs. joes” game with the presumed sharp money favoring the Over. No way I’d bet the Over in this spot but I also don’t want to fade the sharp side of the market.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (55-39) finish their three-game series at the Cincinnati Reds (48-44) Sunday in Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 18-10 with Brewers SS Willy Adames hitting a combined 6-for-11 with a double, one home run and five RBIs in both games.

Season series: Reds lead 8-7.

RHP Corbin Burnes is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Burnes is 4-4 with a 2.36 ERA (87 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 over 15 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 8 K in Milwaukee’s 4-3 loss at the New York Mets July 7.
  • 2021 road splits: 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.80 WHIP and 11.8 K/BB rate in six starts.

RHP Sonny Gray is on the rubber for the Reds. Gray is 2-4 with a 3.19 ERA (62 IP, 22 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.6 K/8 over 12 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 7 K at the Kansas City Royals July 7.
  • Gray is 0-0 against Milwaukee this season with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 159 at-bats with a .245/.333/.711 slash line, 53/20 K/BB, 4 HR and 20 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Reds +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 6, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

The play is to BET 1 unit on the BREWERS (-140) since they have an overwhelming edge in pitching and the Brew Crew are 6-2 vs. the Reds this season in Cincy.

Gray has pitched well for the Reds this season, but Burnes has Cy Young-caliber stuff and could be flying slightly under the radar since he’s just 4-4 on the season.

Burnes grades in the 95th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K%, BB%, barrel rate and chase rate.

Also, there’s an ocean-sized gulf between these two bullpens. Milwaukee’s relievers rank in the top 10 of K-BB%, xFIP and ERA while Cincy’s bullpen is in the bottom 10 in each of those categories and has the second-highest home run per nine-inning rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (+120) for a one-third unit if at all because I much prefer Milwaukee’s money line.

However, the Brewers have the second-highest cover rate on the road this season (29-17 ATS), the Reds are 3-7 ATS as home underdogs and five of Milwaukee’s six wins in Cincy this season have been by at least three runs.

My hesitancy on betting Milwaukee’s run line in this spot is Gray is having a solid season and his pitching peripherals vs. this Brewers lineup look pretty good, so we might need the Brewers to cover the spread in the late innings against Cincy’s horrible bullpen.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 8 (-105) because despite how dominant Burnes has looked at times this season, Milwaukee is still 7-6 O/U in games he starts and the Under is 3-0-1 in the past four Brewers-Reds meetings in Cincy.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (54-39) continue their three-game series with the host Cincinnati Reds (48-43) Saturday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Reds starting RHP Tyler Mahle turned Friday’s game over to his relievers in the sixth inning with a lead and runners on but the Brewers rallied to tie the game and proceeded to score six runs against Cincy’s bullpen in Milwaukee’s 11-6 series-opening victory.

Season series: Reds lead 8-6.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.06 ERA (113 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 over 18 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Milwaukee’s 3-1 loss Sunday against the Reds.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 95 at-bats with a .305/.347/.505 slash line, 31/5 K/BB, 5 HR and 11 RBIs.

RHP Luis Castillo is making his 20th start for the Reds. Castillo is 3-10 with a 4.65 ERA (102 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 6 BB and 6 K in Cincy’s 3-1 victory Sunday at Milwaukee.
  • Castillo is 0-2 this season vs. the Brewers with a 3.52 ERA (23 IP, 9 ER), 1.22 WHIP and 1.6 K/BB in four starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 171 at-bats with a .205/.327/.316 slash line, 55/27 K/BB, 4 HR and 12 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Reds +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 4, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Brewers (-140) because Woodruff had a dominant first half of the season, capped off with his second All-Star selection, and Milwaukee’s bullpen is significantly better than Cincy’s.

However, Castillo has been dealing since the beginning of June (1.97 ERA with 48/22 K/BB over his past eight starts), my buy-price for Milwaukee in this spot is “Brewers (-130)” and I prefer Cincy’s First 5 Innings run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the REDS +0.5 (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit because this number is a little pricey and I think there is more value in the Under for the First 5 Innings.

That being said, not only has Castillo been more locked in lately but his pitching peripherals vs. current Brewers batters are slightly better than Woodruff’s against active Reds hitters.

Furthermore, Castillo’s effectiveness has improved in the second half of the season over his career while Woodruff’s effectiveness has decreased.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 4 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because we cannot trust Cincy’s bullpen since it got nuked in the series opener and ranks in bottom 7 of the majors in xFIP, WAR and home runs allowed per nine innings.

Also, the Brewers are 5-13 O/U in Woodruff starts, the Under has cashed in Milwaukee’s last six games as a favorite and the Under has cashed in six of the last seven Brewers-Reds meetings.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (48-42) host the Milwaukee Brewers (53-39) Friday to start a three-game series at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 8-5.

RHP Adrian Houser is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Houser is 5-5 with a 3.74 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 over 16 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 0 ER (3 R), 5 H, 4 BB and 6 K in Milwaukee’s 5-3 win vs. the Reds July 8.
  • Houser is 1-1 this season vs. Cincy with a 4.61 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 15 H, 11 BB and 14 K in three starts.
    • vs. Reds on the current roster: 115 at-bats with a .330/.403/.643 slash line, 27/13 K/BB, 10 HR and 19 RBIs.

RHP Tyler Mahle makes his 19th start for the Reds. Mahle is 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Mahle also picked up a no-decision in Cincy’s 5-4 loss vs. the Brewers July 8 with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
  • Mahle is 1-0 against Milwaukee this season with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 6 BB and 18 K in two starts.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 76 at-bats with a .263/.364/.474 slash line, 27/9 K/BB, 4 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:00 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-190) | Reds -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Reds 7, Brewers 5

Money line (ML)

The play is to BET the REDS (-140) FIRST 5 INNINGS because they have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup, and the “sharp” side of the market is backing the Reds to win outright, but Cincy’s bullpen is terrible.

For example, Mahle has a 4.51 FIP, .278 expected wOBA, .298 expected slugging percentage, 83.7 mph exit velocity and 36.1% strikeout rate against active Brewers batters.

While Houser has an 8.42 FIP, .379 expected wOBA, .521 expected slugging percentage, 87.8 mph exit velocity and 19.7% strikeout rate vs. current Reds hitters.

Furthermore, Houser is 1-2 with a 5.96 ERA, seven home runs allowed, a 1.46 WHIP and a 2.0 K/BB rate in his five career starts at Great American Ball Park.

Also, according to Pregame.com, three-fourths of cash wagered is on the Reds while a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Brewers. However, oddsmakers have made Cincy pricier to elicit more Milwaukee action.

Even though these betting splits are for Cincy’s full-game money line, I’d prefer to stick with REDS (-140) FIRST 5 INNINGS because Cincy’s bullpen is seventh-worst xFIP and fifth-worst WAR.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds -1.5 (+155) because the market has steamed up from a home underdog on the opening line to the current favorite.

However, what’s holding me back is Cincy’s unreliable bullpen and Milwaukee’s 18-4 ATS record as a road underdog this season.

Since we laid -140 with Cincy’s First 5 Innings money line, I’m OK PASSING on the run line here.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-120) for a half unit because this is yet another spot where the presumed “wiseguys” are on one side (the Over), and the “average Joe” is on the other side (the Under).

Moreover, Mahle has a 6.06 ERA at home this year and the Great American Ball Park is notoriously hitter-friendly with the fifth-most park factor runs scored in the majors.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (48-42) host the Milwaukee Brewers (53-39) Friday to start a three-game series at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 8-5.

RHP Adrian Houser is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Houser is 5-5 with a 3.74 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 over 16 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 0 ER (3 R), 5 H, 4 BB and 6 K in Milwaukee’s 5-3 win vs. the Reds July 8.
  • Houser is 1-1 this season vs. Cincy with a 4.61 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 15 H, 11 BB and 14 K in three starts.
    • vs. Reds on the current roster: 115 at-bats with a .330/.403/.643 slash line, 27/13 K/BB, 10 HR and 19 RBIs.

RHP Tyler Mahle makes his 19th start for the Reds. Mahle is 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Mahle also picked up a no-decision in Cincy’s 5-4 loss vs. the Brewers July 8 with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
  • Mahle is 1-0 against Milwaukee this season with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 6 BB and 18 K in two starts.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 76 at-bats with a .263/.364/.474 slash line, 27/9 K/BB, 4 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:00 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-190) | Reds -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Reds 7, Brewers 5

Money line (ML)

The play is to BET the REDS (-140) FIRST 5 INNINGS because they have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup, and the “sharp” side of the market is backing the Reds to win outright, but Cincy’s bullpen is terrible.

For example, Mahle has a 4.51 FIP, .278 expected wOBA, .298 expected slugging percentage, 83.7 mph exit velocity and 36.1% strikeout rate against active Brewers batters.

While Houser has an 8.42 FIP, .379 expected wOBA, .521 expected slugging percentage, 87.8 mph exit velocity and 19.7% strikeout rate vs. current Reds hitters.

Furthermore, Houser is 1-2 with a 5.96 ERA, seven home runs allowed, a 1.46 WHIP and a 2.0 K/BB rate in his five career starts at Great American Ball Park.

Also, according to Pregame.com, three-fourths of cash wagered is on the Reds while a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Brewers. However, oddsmakers have made Cincy pricier to elicit more Milwaukee action.

Even though these betting splits are for Cincy’s full-game money line, I’d prefer to stick with REDS (-140) FIRST 5 INNINGS because Cincy’s bullpen is seventh-worst xFIP and fifth-worst WAR.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds -1.5 (+155) because the market has steamed up from a home underdog on the opening line to the current favorite.

However, what’s holding me back is Cincy’s unreliable bullpen and Milwaukee’s 18-4 ATS record as a road underdog this season.

Since we laid -140 with Cincy’s First 5 Innings money line, I’m OK PASSING on the run line here.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-120) for a half unit because this is yet another spot where the presumed “wiseguys” are on one side (the Over), and the “average Joe” is on the other side (the Under).

Moreover, Mahle has a 6.06 ERA at home this year and the Great American Ball Park is notoriously hitter-friendly with the fifth-most park factor runs scored in the majors.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (22-23) and Cincinnati Reds (20-24) close out a three-game NL Central series Sunday at 1:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 45 IP over 8 starts.

Peralta is thus far enjoying the finest season of his career. He is managing hard contact at a much-improved clip (26% hard contact in 2021). He has pitched 13 shutout frames over his last two starts.

RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starter for the Reds. He is 1-6 with a 7.44 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 42 1/3 IP over 9 starts.

Castillo has scuffled through the first month-and-a-half of the season. The veteran righty isn’t missing as many bats as he has in the past, but he has held hard contact in check. He has mostly been undone by rates around the margins (.391 batting average on balls in play, 54.3% of runners left on base, 18.9% rate of fly balls as home runs). Castillo owns a 3.36 career ERA in his home ballpark, and he’s facing a Milwaukee nine that struggles against right-handers.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+135) |  Reds +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 5, Brewers 4

Money line (ML)

Cincinnati batters own an .833 OPS against Peralta, and there is enough play in the Castillo side and the Reds’ advantage in home/road and left/right splits to make for value on a REDS +105 play.

Cincinnati’s .830 home OPS ranks second in the league; only four teams have a better OPS against right-handed starters than the Reds’ .769 figure.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line. The game has enough lean on the Over to make a loftier score uninviting on the Reds RL play. Take the better value on the ML.

Over/Under (O/U)

Two weekend-spent bullpens and a warmed-up, breeze-out-to-center Great American Ballpark make for a lean on the OVER 8 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (21-22) roll into Great American Ball Park Thursday for the first of a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (19-23) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee lost both games of its interleague series at the Kansas City Royals and five of the past six games. The Brewers have lost three straight series.

Cincinnati got waxed Wednesday by the San Francisco Giants 19-4 and was swept in the four-game series. The Reds are just 3-7 in their past 10 games.

RHP Adrian Houser is on the hill for the Brewers. Houser is 3-4 with a 3.63 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 over eight starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-3, in 3 IP with 2 ER, 2 H, 5 BB and 3 K last Friday vs. the Atlanta Braves.
  • Career vs. the Reds: 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 across four starts and three relief appearances.
    • Vs. Reds on the current roster: 67 at-bats with a .343/.362/.701 slash line, 14/2 K/BB, 7 HR and 12 RBIs.

RHP Jeff Hoffman is the projected starter for the Reds. Hoffman is 2-3 with a 4.67 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across eight starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 5 K in Cincinnati’s 6-5 win at the Colorado Rockies Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 over two starts.
    • Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 13 at-bats with a .308/.357/.385 slash line, 4/1 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 7, Brewers 5

Money line (ML)

BET the REDS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Cincinnati rakes Houser, and its bullpen is one of the worst in the league. So I don’t trust them to lockdown any game.

Both starters grade poorly in several advanced pitching metrics but Cincinnati’s lineup has drilled righties and has success vs. Houser.

For instance, hitters on Cincinnati’s roster have an absurd .432 wOBA, 8.52 FIP and .523 expected slugging percentage on 53 plate appearances vs. Houser.

Also, the Reds are sixth in wRC+, second in wOBA, third in OPS and 10th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching whereas Milwaukee has the second-lowest wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

However, since Cincinnati’s bullpen is in the bottom-third of the Majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% I’m going to STICK WITH REDS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because of the aforementioned concerns with Cincinnati’s bullpen, and I’m generally going to stay away from run lines for teams with poor bullpens.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-110) for a half unit because both starters are in the 38th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected wOBA.

Furthermore, Cincinnati’s bullpen troubles are carrying over from last year, but Milwaukee’s bullpen has regressed to somewhat of a weakness. The Brewers relievers are below average in xFIP, SIERA and hard-hit rate.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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