The Milwaukee Brewers (2-2) rallied from a 5-1 deficit against the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-3) on Monday, and will look to make it two in a row when the NL Central rivals square off at PNC Park in Pittsburgh at 7:05 p.m. ET Tuesday. We analyze the Brewers-Pirates betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Brewers at Pirates: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Josh Lindblom vs. LHP Derek Holland
Lindblom was a mediocre pitcher in the majors from 2011-14, and again briefly in 2017. Overall, he owns a 4.10 ERA, and after spending most of the past five seasons in Korea, he’s back to make his seventh career MLB start.
- Lindblom was a dominant starter in the KBO (Korean Baseball Organization) the past two seasons. He was so good that he took home MVP honors last year after going 20-3 with a 2.50 ERA across 30 starts.
- His 8.7 K/9 ratio from 2019 (and 8.4 in 2018) may not jump off the page, but his 189 K’s led the KBO last year and he was third among all starters (minimum 10 starts) in K/9.
Derek Holland will be making his Pittsburgh debut. The lefty looks to rebound from a disappointing 2019 season – pitching for the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants – in which he recorded a 6.08 ERA in 84 1/3 innings.
- Even in a down year, Holland was effective against LHB, holding them to a .528 OPS in 114 plate appearances. However, RHB were a different story, as they knocked him around to the tune of a .997 OPS.
- Holland is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA (4 ER, 20 2/3 IP) in 11 career appearances, including two starts vs. Milwaukee. He has made three appearances at PNC Park in his career, allowing just three earned runs in 12 innings, while striking out 14.
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Brewers at Pirates: Key injuries
Check out all the latest injury news from around the league.
Brewers
- 2B Luis Urias (COVID-19) out
Pirates
- RP Keone Kela (COVID-19) out
- SS JT Riddle (abdominal) out
Brewers at Pirates: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Brewers 8, Pirates 4
Moneyline (ML)
The Brewer offense had been very quiet until the very end of Monday’s game. Milwaukee shouldn’t have much trouble putting runs on the board against Holland in this one.
Lindblom is a bit of a question mark, but he has put up excellent numbers in each of the last two seasons, albeit against lesser competition in the KBO. He gets a pretty good matchup in this one, so take the BREWERS (-176).
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Brewers at -176 would net a profit of $5.68 – or every $1.76 wagered will profit $1 if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Brewers are -1.5 (-125), and considering how poorly Holland pitched throughout 2019, they should be able to win by at least two runs. Take the BREWERS (-125).
Over/Under (O/U)
Lindblom is likely to be a decent pitcher in his return to the majors, but won’t come anywhere close to the numbers he posted while in Korea. The Pirates probably won’t get completely shut down, and as noted above, the Milwaukee offense could erupt for a big game. A small bet on the OVER 10 (-110) looks like the smart play here.
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