Tag: Brewers Nationals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Milwaukee Brewers (61-47) and Washington Nationals (49-60) meet Friday to begin a 3-game series. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 6:45 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Washington leads 2-1

Milwaukee lost 6-2 to the Atlanta Braves Wednesday while failing to cover as a +103 home underdog. The Brewers have lost back-to-back games and have scored 3 or less runs in each of their last 5 losses. This is Milwaukee’s 1st game back on the road after going 4-2 on a 6-game homestand.

Washington lost 5-4 to the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday while failing to cover as a +162 road underdog, extending the Nationals’ losing steak to 4 games. The Nationals are home aftera 2-4 road trip.

Brewers at Nationals projected starters

RHP Frankie Montas vs. RHP Jake Irvin 

Montas (4-8, 5.01 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 93 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 9-4 win at Atlanta on July 24 as a member of the Cincinnati Reds
  • Career vs. Washington: 1-1, 9.00 ERA (12 IP, 12 ER), 16 H, 5 BB, 8 K in 4 appearances (2 starts)

Irvin (8-8, 3.44 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 128 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 14-3 win at St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
  • Career vs. Milwaukee: 0-2, 7.71 ERA (14 IP, 12 ER), 18 H, 10 BB, 11 K in 3 starts

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Brewers at Nationals odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:32 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Nationals +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+136) | Nationals +1.5 (-164)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +102 | U: -124)

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Brewers at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Nationals 3

Moneyline

BET BREWERS (-118).

Milwaukee is 5-5 in its last 10 games and 3-1 in its last 4 road games while the Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 and have dropped 3 straight at home.

Be aware these teams are 5-5 in the last 10 meetings.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Nationals to cover here as +1.5 (-164) underdogs, but the line is just slightly too risky for me. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-124).

The Under is 3-1 in Washington’s last 4 home games and has hit in each of Milwaukee’s last 3 on the road. The Under has also hit in 3 of the last 4 meetings in Washington.

This is a lean because the Over is 6-4 in Washington’s last 10 outings and 5-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 10.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (57-49) and Washington Nationals (44-62) open a 3-game series Monday in the District of Columbia. First pitch at Nationals Park is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; the Brewers and Nats split 6 games in 2022

Milwaukee was a robust 12-4 on the road from June 23-July 20, but the Brewers opened a current road trip with 3 straight defeats at the hands of the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. Brewers pitching, which clocked a 3.11 ERA over the 12-4 stretch, was touched up for 29 runs in the losses to Atlanta.

The Nationals dropped 3 of 4 games against the Mets in New York over the weekend. Washington is 7-1 with a high-contact .870 OPS over its last 8 home games.

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Brewers at Nationals projected starters

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Jake Irvin

Burnes (9-6, 3.46 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday
  • 2023 Road stats: 5-3, 3.00 in 69 IP (2.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP on the road since 2021)
  • Has never faced Washington as a starter
  • Has registered an 0.90 ERA and 0.55 WHIP over 20 IP across his last 3 starts

Irvin (3-5, 4.96 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has notched a 1.43 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 74 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 7 K in a 5-4 win vs. Colorado Rockies Wednesday
  • 2023 Home stats: 2-4, 4.97 ERA in 54 1/3 IP
  • Has never faced Milwaukee as a starter
  • Highest 2 single-game pitch counts (111 and 105) have come in the rookie’s last 2 starts

Brewers at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Nationals +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Brewers at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Nationals 4

Moneyline

Both teams are in the fade category, the Brewers a bit more than the Nationals but not to the degree where some value can be sighted.

Both starters have a bit of bet-against lean to them as well, so the Total looks to be where money can be made in this one. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. No lean on either side.

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Over/Under

Burnes has benefited from a .238 batting average on balls in play. His normalized (expected) ERA is near 4.00 in some measures. Irvin is coming off the 2 games with high pitch counts, is backed by a bottom-10 bullpen, and has been allowing a lot of hard and barreled contact over recent starts.

Mix in the recent home-park exploits of the Nats, and BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).

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Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (27-25) go for a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals (21-27) Sunday in Nationals Park at 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee took both games of the seven-inning doubleheader with Washington Saturday by a combined score of 10-3.

Season series: Brewers 2-0.

RHP Brandon Woodruff makes his 11th start for the Brewers. Woodruff is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA (64 IP, 10 ER), 0.70 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-3, in 7 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 8 K Monday vs. San Diego Padres.
  • Career vs. Nationals (regular season): 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.70 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in two starts and two bullpen outings.
    • vs. Nationals on the current roster: 65 at-bats with a .169/.225/.323 slash line, 20/4 K/BB, 3 HR and 7 RBIs.

RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starter for the Nationals. Scherzer is 4-3 with a 2.27 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 across 10 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 2-1, in 7 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K vs. Cincinnati Reds Tuesday.
  • Career vs. Brewers (regular season): 2-2 with a 2.29 ERA (51 IP, 13 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 11.8 K/9 over eight starts and one bullpen appearance.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 111 at-bats with a .198/.288/.387 slash line, 40/12 K/BB, 5 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Brewers at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:16 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-225) | Nationals -1.5 (+180)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Nationals 1

Money line (ML)

Scherzer being a probable Hall of Fame starting pitcher is part of the reason why the value is with the BREWERS (+100) and the other part has been the dominance of Milwaukee’s starter so far this season.

Woodruff is one of the few non-Jacob deGrom Cy Young contenders in the National League and he currently ranks third in WAR, first in home runs allowed per nine innings, second in FIP and fourth in hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, Woodruff has nine consecutive quality starts and is leading the major leagues in WHIP and hits allowed per nine innings.

According to Pregame.com, more money and bets have been placed on the Nationals, but Washington’s money line is getting cheaper across most books, which insinuates oddsmakers would want more pro-Nationals action.

In my opinion, the reason behind Washington’s popularity in this spot has less to do with actual baseball handicapping and more to do with the market blindly backing Scherzer, who’s trying to end a Nationals losing streak.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Milwaukee’s run line is far too expensive and the Brewers’ alternate line is out of the question given their weak bullpen and Scherzer being on the mound.

Milwaukee’s bullpen was a strength in previous seasons, but this year it ranks 22nd in WAR, 27th in home runs allowed per nine innings and 26th in hard-hit rate.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 6.5 (-115) for a half unit because both starters are aces, Washington’s lineup is average and Milwaukee’s lineup has been terrible thus far.

Also, the Under has cashed in Scherzer’s last four starts at home and Woodruff’s last four on the road vs. a team with a losing record.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (25-25) play the Washington Nationals (21-25) in Game 2 of their seven-inning doubleheader Saturday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee beat the San Diego Padres 6-5 in extra innings Thursday to split a four-game series and is 5-5 in its last 10 games.

Washington split a doubleheader with the Cincinnati Reds Thursday. The Nationals lost the three-game set and are 5-5 in their past 10 games.

LHP Brett Anderson is making his eighth start for the Brewers. He is 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA (29 IP, 14 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 3 K Saturday at the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Career vs. Nationals: 0-1 with 5 IP, 7 ER, 3 BB, 10 H and 1 K in one start (2015).
    • vs. Nationals on the current roster: 36 at-bats with a .278/.341/.639 slash line, 8/4 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.

LHP Jon Lester is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 0-2 with a 5.33 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 over five starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 6 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K in Washington’s 12-9 win over the Baltimore Orioles Saturday.
  • Career vs. Brewers: 5-4 with a 3.09 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.22 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 across 13 starts.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 147 at-bats with a .347/.392/.469 slash line, 40/11 K/BB, 1 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Brewers at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+180) | Nationals +1.5 (-225)
  • Over/Under: 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Nationals 4, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

BET the NATIONALS (-120) for 1 unit because they are much better against left-handed pitching and Washington’s advanced hitting numbers against Anderson are excellent, which gives the Nationals pitching staff a slight edge.

For instance, the Nationals are sixth in wRC+, fourth in wOBA and 10th in hard-hit rate. Also, Anderson has a 7.47 FIP against current Nationals hitters with a .506 xwOBA, .810 expected slugging percentage and a 95.8 mph exit velocity.

Despite Lester being way past his prime and his basic pitching numbers both this year and against the Brewers not being very good, his advanced numbers against this Milwaukee roster gives me confidence he can grind out a win.

Lester has a 2.00 FIP, .437 expected slugging percentage, 25.4% strikeout rate and an 84.9 mph exit velocity against Milwaukee’s roster.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. Lester, this overall inconsistent Nationals lineup and Washington’s 6-11 run line record as a home favorite are my reasons for staying away.

Over/Under (O/U)

Speaking of Washington’s inconsistent lineup, the Nationals have the highest percentage of Unders in the majors with a 14-29-3 O/U record, which is due to Washington’s batters not hitting as well as expected.

I am convinced enough the Nationals will get to Anderson and Milwaukee’s bullpen to take Washington’s money line, but not convinced enough in either mediocre offense to take the Over.

PASS.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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