The Milwaukee Brewers (57-49) and Washington Nationals (44-62) open a 3-game series Monday in the District of Columbia. First pitch at Nationals Park is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; the Brewers and Nats split 6 games in 2022
Milwaukee was a robust 12-4 on the road from June 23-July 20, but the Brewers opened a current road trip with 3 straight defeats at the hands of the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. Brewers pitching, which clocked a 3.11 ERA over the 12-4 stretch, was touched up for 29 runs in the losses to Atlanta.
The Nationals dropped 3 of 4 games against the Mets in New York over the weekend. Washington is 7-1 with a high-contact .870 OPS over its last 8 home games.
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Brewers at Nationals projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Jake Irvin
Burnes (9-6, 3.46 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday
- 2023 Road stats: 5-3, 3.00 in 69 IP (2.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP on the road since 2021)
- Has never faced Washington as a starter
- Has registered an 0.90 ERA and 0.55 WHIP over 20 IP across his last 3 starts
Irvin (3-5, 4.96 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has notched a 1.43 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 74 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 7 K in a 5-4 win vs. Colorado Rockies Wednesday
- 2023 Home stats: 2-4, 4.97 ERA in 54 1/3 IP
- Has never faced Milwaukee as a starter
- Highest 2 single-game pitch counts (111 and 105) have come in the rookie’s last 2 starts
Brewers at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Nationals +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Brewers at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 6, Nationals 4
Moneyline
Both teams are in the fade category, the Brewers a bit more than the Nationals but not to the degree where some value can be sighted.
Both starters have a bit of bet-against lean to them as well, so the Total looks to be where money can be made in this one. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS. No lean on either side.
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Over/Under
Burnes has benefited from a .238 batting average on balls in play. His normalized (expected) ERA is near 4.00 in some measures. Irvin is coming off the 2 games with high pitch counts, is backed by a bottom-10 bullpen, and has been allowing a lot of hard and barreled contact over recent starts.
Mix in the recent home-park exploits of the Nats, and BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).
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