At the time of his season-ending knee injury in Week 7 of the 2022 season, New York Jets running back Breece Hall was a frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. After having to earn his spot by showing what he could do as a receiver – in his first three games, he had more fantasy production as a receiver (13 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown) than as a rusher (21-112-0). When Hall was given the chance to be a featured runner, he took off.
In his final four games before being injured, Hall rushed 59 times for 354 yards and four touchdowns. He was averaging 5.8 yards a carry, and the future looked bright. The Jets were 5-2 and one of the most talked about teams in the NFL.
In an instant, it was all over. In Week 7 (Oct. 23) against the Denver Broncos, Hall suffered a torn ACL and meniscus and not only was his season over, so was the Jets – New York lost eight of the 10 games it played without him. His replacements struggled; Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight both averaged just 3.5 yards a carry as the Jets limped home after a strong start.
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There has been a return to optimism as the Jets went all-in for 2023 and swung the deal to land veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers. A lot is hinging on Hall being back to pre-injury form, which we likely won’t know fully until the preseason at the earliest.
Traditionally, ACL reconstruction tends to come with a nine-month recovery from a physical perspective, though many backs rarely look like themselves the season following.
Early signs are that Hall is making a quick and effective recovery from his injury. Granted, anybody can look good in a T-shirt and shorts on a side practice field with the training staff, but Hall has looked impressive in what limited glimpses the Jets media throng has seen. He has been seen running sprints and making decisive cuts. However, until you’re in pads going up against large men with bad intentions, you never really know just how far along his progress to return is at until you actually see it.
Fantasy football outlook
When his rookie season came crashing to a close, Hall was an intriguing fantasy football stories and was being viewed as a must-start player with RB1 numbers. Running backs coming off of significant injuries are always a concern, but the next few weeks will likely tip the Jets’ hand. As of May 31, head coach Robert Saleh said he’s “very optimistic” that Hall will be ready for Week 1.
New York’s aggressive offseason approach to winning now, not later, has the Jets being mentioned among the teams that might be willing to sign an elite veteran free agent running back, like Dalvin Cook or Ezekiel Elliott, to an incentive-laden, short-term deal. That is predicated on Hall not being ready to go at the start of the season.
By the time we get to the heart of fantasy draft season, if the Jets have hedged their bet with a veteran signing, they will be sending a loud-and-clear signal of their assessment of Hall’s health. If they don’t make a move, Hall is a solid midlevel RB2.
With a current ADP of RB9 and 19th overall, Hall shouldn’t be the first running back on a fantasy roster, but he is well worth the gamble if he shows that he will be on the field Week 1 as long as you’re understanding that we may not see his best work until the second half of the season.