Tag: Braves Dodgers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

NLCS Game 3: Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 3 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves are two wins away from reaching the World Series and now travel to Los Angeles for Game 3 of the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. First pitch is set for 5:08 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Braves RHP Charlie Morton (0-1, 3.86 ERA in postseason) gets his third start of the postseason. He was 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 185 2/3 IP across 33 starts in the regular season.

  • Allowed 2 runs on 4 hits over 4 1/3 innings of Game 4 of the NLDS against Milwaukee.
  • Was 1-0 and allowed 5 runs (3 earned) across 11 innings in two regular-season starts against the Dodgers. His last start at Dodger Stadium was a 3-2 Braves loss, but he pitched 6 innings and allowed only 1 run on 3 hits.

Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler (0-1, 3.38 ERA in postseason) makes his third start of the postseason. He was 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 207 2/3 IP across 33 starts in the regular season.

  • Allowed 2 runs and 4 hits across 7 innings in a 3-2 Dodgers win and received no-decision in his lone start against the Braves in the regular season.
  • Has allowed more than 1 run only twice in his last 11 postseason starts.

Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Dodgers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-145) | Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Dodgers 4, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

The Braves have won five games in a row this postseason and, including the regular season, have only three losses in their last 20 games and only two losses in their last 10 road games.

The Dodgers’ 58 home wins at Dodger Stadium in the regular season were the most home wins by any team. They swept the Braves in their one series in Los Angeles in the regular season and were 13-6 at home when Buehler pitched. The last time Los Angeles lost three games in a row was July 21-23.

Take the DODGERS (-190).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves are 52-31 ATS on the road this year and are 5-1 ATS so far in the playoffs.

The Dodgers are 4-4 ATS in the postseason thus far and are only 44-40 ATS at Dodger Stadium. Four of their last five games have been one-run games.

Take the BRAVES +1.5 (-145).

Over/Under (O/U)

Five of the Dodgers’ eight postseason games have had totals of 7 or fewer runs. Four of six for the Braves have had totals of 7 or fewer.

Half of the six regular-season games between the two teams had 7 or fewer runs.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-110).

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Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (70-61) finish off their three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers (84-49) Wednesday at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. has won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-5 and has pulled within a half-game of the San Francisco Giants for first place in the NL West.

Season series: Dodgers lead 3-2.

LHP Max Fried is Atlanta’s projected starter. Fried is 11-7 with a 3.54 ERA (124 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K in Atlanta’s 6-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants Friday.
  • Fried beat the Dodgers with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Atlanta’s 4-2 home win June 6.
    • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 5.27 FIP with a .309 batting average (BA), .376 wOBA, .442 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.2 K% and 90.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 123 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Max Scherzer gets the nod for the Dodgers. Scherzer is 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA (140 IP, 39 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-0, with 7 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K at the San Diego Padres Thursday.
  • Scherzer got a no-decision in an April 6 start against Atlanta while pitching for his former team (Washington Nationals) with 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Washington’s 6-5 home victory.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster: 3.88 FIP with a .189 BA, .276 wOBA, .418 xSLG, 31.8 K% and 89.5 mph EV in 198 PA.

Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Dodgers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-125) | Dodgers +1.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Braves 5, Dodgers 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the BRAVES (+175) for a tiny wager only because there’s more value in Atlanta’s run line.

That said, this is a “contrarian play” against a market that’s backing L.A. at nearly a 90% clip (according to Pregame.com), the Braves hit righties better than the Dodgers hit lefties, and Scherzer has struggled in recent seasons vs. the Braves.

For instance, Atlanta’s lineup ranks 11th or better in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching while L.A.’s lineup ranks 14th or worse against left-handed pitching in wOBA, wRC+ and BB/K.

On top of that, Scherzer is just 1-3 in his last five starts vs. the Braves with a 6.84 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 20 ER) and has allowed 7 home runs in those outings.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the BRAVES +1.5 (-120) heavier than, or instead of, their money line since Atlanta is 20-9 ATS as a road underdog, L.A. is 32-36 ATS as a home favorite, and Scherzer’s teams are 2-7 ATS this season with a minus 51.3% return on investment as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-105) because I think Atlanta’s lineup can get to Scherzer and the Braves are 11-10 O/U when Fried gets the start. However, there’s obviously not a lot to this handicap, and we will just stick with Atlanta’s money line and run line.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (70-60) seek to even the series in the second game of their three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers (83-49) Tuesday. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Braves RHP Charlie Morton (12-5, 3.60 ERA) makes his 27th start of the season. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 145 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 26 starts, although he allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings his last time out.
  • The Braves are 14-12 when he starts and have won his last six road turns.

Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.02 ERA) makes his 27 start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 169 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 21 of his 26 starts, including each of his last nine outings. He has a 1.19 ERA in that nine-game span.
  • The Dodgers have won five of his last six starts and are 18-8 when he is on the mound.

Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:46 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-135) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Dodgers 4, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

The Braves had won 13 straight road games before dropping the series opener Monday night 5-3, leaving them with a 37-28 record on the road. They are 20-6 in their last 26 road games and have not lost two consecutive road games since July 5-6.

The Dodgers are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall, and no team has more than their 44 home wins. They have won Buehler’s last four starts.

Take the DODGERS (-200).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Despite being in first place in the NL East, the Braves are 61-69 ATS overall, although they are 39-26 ATS on the road. They have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.

The Dodgers are 64-68 ATS overall and 32-35 ATS at Dodger Stadium. Their last five, and seven of their last nine, wins have been by at least 2 runs.

Take the DODGERS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Dodger Stadium has the third-lowest Over percentage in baseball at 41.9%.

Four of the Braves’ last five games have had totals of 8 or more runs. Six of Morton’s last 10 games have had totals of 8 or more runs.

Only four of the Dodgers’ last 14 have finished with 8 or more runs.

With two aces on the mound in a game that matters in the playoff race, take UNDER 7.5 (-105).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (70-59) stop by Dodger Stadium Monday to start a three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers (82-49) at 10:00 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Braves lead 2-1.

LHP Drew Smyly makes his 23rd start for the Braves. Smyly is 9-3 with a 4.54 ERA (111 IP, 56 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K Aug. 21 at the Baltimore Orioles.
  • 2021 road splits: 6-2 with a 4.59 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.50 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB in 14 starts.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 4.39 FIP with a .226 batting average (BA), .316 wOBA, .475 expected slugging percentage, 23.6 K% and 91.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 72 plate appearances (PA).

LHP Julio Urias is L.A.’s projected starter. Urias is 14-3 with a 3.17 ERA (144 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 4 K at the San Diego Padres Tuesday.
  • Urias beat the Braves in Atlanta June 4 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K in L.A.’s 9-5 victory.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.60 FIP with a .167 BA, .241 wOBA, .473 xSLG, 16.7 K% and 84.4 mph EV in 42 PA.

Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Dodgers -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-112) | Dodgers +1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Braves 7, Dodgers 5

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the BRAVES (+190) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I like Atlanta’s run line, and there’s just too much value on the money line given how well the Braves have played recently.

For instance, Atlanta has the same record over the past 30 games as L.A. (21-9 overall), and this has been a profitable spot for the Braves this season.  Atlanta is 4-3 outright with a plus-26.1% return on investment (ROI) as an underdog when Smyly gets the start.

Furthermore, the Braves are more reliable against left-handed pitching than the Dodgers as Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher in wOBA, BB/K and soft-contact rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BRAVES +1.5 (-112) heavier than, or instead of, their money line because Atlanta is 19-8 ATS as a road underdog while L.A. is 31-35 ATS as a home favorite despite being 43-23 outright.

Also, there’s a split in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money riding with the Braves +1.5 (-122) and the public backing the Dodgers -1.5 (-108), according to Pregame.com.

Close to two-thirds of the cash is on Atlanta’s run line whereas more than 60% of the action is on L.A. Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd. Plus it’s rare to see people fading the Dodgers so I’m weighing the betting splits a little heavier in this sport.

Over/Under (O/U)

The same “pros vs. joes” scenario is happening in the total’s market for the Braves-Dodgers with more money being on the Over but more bets are placed on the Under (according to Pregame.com).

In addition, the Braves are 7-0 O/U in Smyly’s starts as a road underdog, and these teams have a combined 30-15 O/U record when both starters take the mound.

GIMME the OVER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit as my favorite bet in Braves-Dodgers.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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