In a flyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja meet Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 290: Moreno vs. Pantoja odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET with the prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
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Records: Moreno (21-6-2) | Pantoja (25-5-0)
The 29-year-old Moreno puts his flyweight strap on the line against the 33-year-old Pantoja. The Mexican-born Moreno lost the strap before when he dropped a unanimous decision against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 270 in January 2022 but took the strap back from Kai Kara-France at UFC 277 just a few months later in July.
Moreno then defended the belt successfully in the 4rth installment of his rivalry against Figueiredo last time out at UFC 283 in January, winning via TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage after 3 rounds.
These fighters met previously on May 19, 2018, in a UFC Fight Night prelim bout in Santiago, Chile, with Pantoja winning via unanimous decision (30-26, 30-26, 29-27).
Pantoja comes in on a 3-bout win streak since losing to Askar Askarov in mid-July 2020. He topped Manel Kape via unanimous decision in February 2021, and then he has recorded consecutive submission victories over Brandon Royval (August 2021) and Alex Perez (July 2022).
Moreno has a 2.5-inch reach advantage, while Pantoja has a slight 4.25-to-3.55 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Pantoja is also a little more accurate with his strikes at 52.95%. The arrow is in Moreno’s favor as far as takedowns go as he holds a 1.80-to-1.37 takedown average advantage while posting a 45.45% mark to 40.74% for the challenger.
On submission average, the Brazilian-born Pantoja has a 1.25 average, while Moreno checks in at 0.58.
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UFC 290: Moreno vs. Pantoja odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Moreno -215 (bet $215 to win $100) | Pantoja +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +145)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -140)
UFC 290: Moreno vs. Pantoja picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
While it has been over 5 calendar years since these fighters last met, it’s hard to ignore the fact PANTOJA (+175) won the first bout.
The Brazilian slept Perez in 91 seconds last time out at UFC 277, and he is looking to secure his first strap since becoming the champ at RFA 189 in Sept. 2014, when he stopped Matt Manzanares with a rear-naked choke.
Moreno is certainly beatable, and Pantoja can win in a number of ways. I don’t think we get a knockout here, but a submission is certainly possible. However, I believe that we’ll see several takedowns from both fighters and that the judges will determine a winner.
As such, PANTOJA ON POINTS (+400) is attractive for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 4 times.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a good play, especially if you aren’t quite sold on a Pantoja victory but you want a little action.
We’ve seen Moreno go the distance in 7 of his past 11 fights at the UFC level, and while Pantoja has had a pair of stoppages in his past 2 outings, he went the distance in his 2 previous fights and 3 of his last 6 bouts.
Over 3.5 Rounds (-190) is a little too expensive for my liking, costing you nearly 2 times your potential return.
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