Tag: Bracketology

Miraculous comeback by Boise State sinks Aggies’ at-large hopes

RayJ Dennis scored all of his career-high 19 points in the final 3:23 of regulation as Boise State fought back from a late 19-point deficit.

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Game Recap: Boise St. 88, Utah St. 83 (OT)

Broncos erase 19-point deficit in stunning fashion

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

High drama in Boise means high stress for Utah State

It seemed for all the world that Utah State was moving past its early struggles in the Mountain West, leading comfortably in Boise with just a few minutes to play.

But a late Boise State surge propelled the Broncos to one of the most unlikely wins of the season in college basketball, the home team escaping with an 88-83 overtime win in ExtraMile Arena.

Freshman guard RayJ Dennis led the comeback charge for Boise State, scoring all of his career-high 19 points in the final three-plus minutes of regulation. Dennis shot 5-for-5, including four three-pointers. He was also a perfect 5-for-5 at the free throw stripe.

It was one of the most electrifying individual performances of the season—not just in the MW, but in the nation—and it came from one of the most unassuming players on the court.

This win wasn’t just unlikely—it was all but impossible.

According to Ken Pomeroy, the win probability for Utah State (14-6, 3-4 MW) peaked at 98.8% after Justin Bean’s free throws put them up 18 points with 4:10 remaining. The Broncos’ 0.2% shot at victory was about as slim as it gets.

But on some nights, college basketball simply refuses to be penned in by such limits.

Utah State’s collapse spoiled a season-high scoring night from its star player, Sam Merrill, who finished with 30 points on the night. Bean had a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds, and Neemias Queta added 12 points before fouling out, but those performances weren’t enough to stave off the Broncos’ late push.

The gut-wrenching loss may be the final straw that breaks the back—and heart—of the Aggies.

With just over six minutes to play in regulation, Queta hit two free throws to give the Aggies a 62-43 lead over Boise State, matching the Aggies’ largest lead of the game at 19 points. Over the next two minutes, the Broncos only managed to chisel one point off of that deficit, with Utah State leading 66-48 with four minutes to play.

Then it happened.

RJ Williams drew a foul on Queta, the fifth of the game for the Portuguese sophomore. Over its next few possessions, Utah State alternated between missed shots and turnovers, resulting in a 14-0 run for Boise State that cut the Aggie lead to four points with one minute remaining.

After two Abel Porter free throws with eight seconds to play, Utah State held a 75-70 lead and looked like they would be able to survive Boise State’s big haymaker.

But Dennis came down and capped off his out-of-the-blue explosion, nailing a three-pointer with four seconds remaining.

Boise State’s comeback hinged on forcing one last turnover.

Justinian Jessup didn’t disappoint.

The senior sharpshooter was able to intercept Diogo Brito’s inbounds pass, and he quickly layed the the ball in with 1.3 seconds on the clock, tying the game at 75.

The two teams would take that scoreline with them into overtime. With the wind fully at their backs, Boise State drew first blood in the extra period—and never gave the lead back.

Jessup and Williams both finished in double figures for the Broncos, with Derrick Alston also chipping in 19 to tie Dennis for the team-high in scoring.

The win moves Boise State (12-6, 4-4 MW) to .500 in league play—something Utah State can no longer claim. The Broncos have had issues with depth at times this year, but the big plays out of RayJ Dennis and Max Rice down the stretch is a sign of growth for Leon Rice’s bench.

It’s a step in the right direction for a Broncos team coming off two straight losses to San Diego State and Air Force. Consistency hasn’t been this team’s strong suit this season, but any indications of progress are encouraging. If nothing else, it seems unlikely that Boise State will repeat its dismal showing in the Mountain West after last season’s mess.

For the Aggies, the loss not only hands them a losing record in conference play—it might have completely dashed any remaining hopes that Utah State had to get an at-large bid in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Craig Smith’s team came into the season with massive expectations, but the Aggies have fallen well short of them. Utah State was pegged to win the league going away, with San Diego State a distant second in the league. Questions lingered about how the team would fare with Queta on the mend from a summer knee injury, but a 7-0 start to the season for the Aggies quelled those fears.

But since Thanksgiving, that narrative has been completely flipped on its head, with Utah State going just 7-6 in games since their holiday trip to Montego Bay for the Jamaica Classic. And things are getting worse in 2020, with the Aggies having won just one game in five tries so far in the new year. Those games include losses to Air Force and UNLV.

Even on the road, those were games the Aggies were supposed to win.

At this point, preseason projections have to be thrown out. Though it’s not entirely clear what is wrong with the Aggies, they are nowhere near where the prognosticators—myself included—thought they would be.

The Aztecs, meanwhile, are still standing as the last undefeated team in the nation.

Utah State does hold wins over LSU and Florida, but those victories won’t be enough to buoy the Aggies’ chances at getting an at-large bid. At this point, they may need to run the table the rest of the way to have a shot at one. Failing that, Utah State’s only way forward will likely be through the Mountain West Tournament.

They will have plenty of competition there, though, with San Diego State having already all but locked up their ticket to the Big Dance. No other team in the league can make such a claim, so the stakes will be enormous at the Thomas & Mack Center in March.

Let’s hope that all of those games can be exciting as this one was.

UP NEXT

Boise State: The Broncos will have something of a light week compared to their recent forays against SDSU, Air Force, and Utah State. On Saturday, Boise State hosts Fresno State (6-12, 2-5 MW), who has struggled to the tune of a 2-5 start in league play. The Bulldogs have weapons, though. Leon Rice would do well to remind his team not to rest on their laurels, especially with no midweek game to keep them sharp.

Utah State: The Aggies will look to right the ship at home against Air Force (9-10, 3-4 MW). Remember: this team beat the Aggies by 19 points just two weeks ago. The Falcons’ offense has been impressive behind the play of Ryan Swan and Lavelle Scottie, but Dave Pilipovich has yet to field a consistent winner on the year. Utah State will also host San Jose State (6-13, 2-5 MW) next Saturday.

It’s not a stretch to say that these are must-win games for Utah State if they are to have any hope at getting into the NCAA Tournament through the front door.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Eleven Big Ten teams projected in NCAA field

Joe Lunardi has a whopping eleven Big Ten teams in the NCAA projected field if the season were to end today.

There’s still a large part of the season to go, but the Big Ten might be on the verge of a pretty remarkable feat if things stay the course. It’s been a very unpredictable conference season so far, and that speaks to the balance of the league. Look no further than Ohio State for proof. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 11, but are just 1-4 in the league and sit in second to last place.

Michigan State has been the best so far in-conference, but it got the doors blown off of it by 29 points at Purdue Sunday. It’s anyone’s guess how many losses the league champion will have.

But there’s good news in all of this. The conference is projected to have eleven teams in the NCAA field if the season were to end today according to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on ESPN. That’s more than any other conference by a wide margin. In fact, the Big East is second with just six teams projected in.

And rather than name all eleven, it’s easier to name the three that wouldn’t be in if the season were to end today. Those three teams are Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota. And that’s with the understanding that the Gophers are just barely out of the field right now.

Now, will arguably the deepest conference in the country get this many teams in when it all really matters? I think it would be a shock to see eleven, but with the way things are going, never say never. Either way, it looks like there’s going to be a severe Big Ten flavor to  March in 2020.

Where is Ohio State basketball in the latest Joe Lunardi Bracketology

After four-straight losses, you might be surprised where Joe Lunardi has Ohio State basketball in his latest Bracketology projection.

Joe Lunardi has released his latest Bracketology, and he still has a reeling Ohio State basketball squad pretty high on the seeding line. In fact, according to the ESPN master of NCAA tournament projections, he’s got the Buckeyes still on the No. 4 seed line.

While many would argue with that, there is still a very good body of work that will play well to any committee looking to put a field together. There’s the win over Cincinnati to start the year, a win over a top ten Villanova, a road victory over North Carolina, and a neutral court win over Kentucky that will probably look even better by the end of the year.

Now, before you celebrate, obviously Ohio State has to find a way to get back to the good basketball it was playing last year, and — the latest Bracketology came out before the loss at Indiana.

Regardless, for those of you that think the Buckeyes are in a free-fall, there’s still a lot to be positive about. Now, about those turnovers …

Ohio State Women’s Basketball up to No. 9 seed in ESPN’s bracketology

The Ohio State Buckeyes women’s basketball team is moving up in bracketology projections, now a No. 9 seed in ESPN’s bracket.

The Ohio State women’s basketball team is having a bit of an inconsistent season. An 8-6 record might not quite be what Buckeye fans expect from this program, though it is an improvement over last year. The Buckeyes still haven’t found a replacement for star Kelsey Mitchell, but this year’s team is competitive against top programs.

Ohio State lost early disappointing games to Ohio and South Dakota, but the Buckeyes also have a huge win over Louisville. The Cardinals were No. 2 at the time of that game and currently sit at No. 7. In fact, the loss to Ohio State is still Louisville’s only loss, and that win over the Cardinals will be a huge feather in Ohio State’s cap when tournament selection rolls around.

The Buckeyes also picked up a second big win just now, defeating Michigan on Thursday evening. Even with a few bad losses, those two wins–and a very strong schedule, which includes respectable losses to both Stanford and UConn, has the Buckeyes projected as a 9-seed in ESPN’s current bracketology, updated this morning.

The Buckeyes have been in ESPN’s bracket ever since the Louisville win, usually somewhere in the “last four in” range. The Buckeyes were a 10-seed in the December 23rd iteration of the bracket, but quickly fell back to the bubble with a loss to Purdue. Now, though, after a close loss against Maryland and the win over Michigan, Ohio State is projected as a 9-seed.

The Buckeyes will face Penn State and Michigan State, two of the Big Ten’s weakest teams, next week. Wins against those two teams might not help the resume much, but it will show some much-needed consistency. Losses in either of those games, though, will move the Buckeyes right back to the bubble.

Ohio State No. 1 seed in latest Joe Lunardi Bracketology NCAA basketball projection

Ohio State has moved all the way up to the No. 1 seed line in the latest ESPN Joe Lunardi Bracektology NCAA projections.

The Ohio State basketball team has met every single challenge it has been presented with so far in 2019 — and do so in impressive fashion. It has eviscerated two top ten opponents, beat a defensive-minded Cincinnati squad, and just blew out a Penn State team that upset a top five Maryland squad Tuesday night.

And for all its spoils so far, the Buckeyes are not only climbing up the national polls, but have recently been projected as a No. 1 seed in the latest Joe Lunardi Bracketology projection.

As for where Lunardi has Ohio State, he has them in the Midwest region playing in Cleveland and playing the winner of one of the First Round play-in games.

Now, before we get too excited and make travel plans, I’ll state the obvious that the calendar only reflects that it’s mid-December and nowhere near March. But the fact that Ohio State was originally pegged as somewhere around a No. 5 seed when these things first came out is showing everyone that Ohio State is again exceeding expectations.

And with a deep roster that has experienced veterans to go along with a fantastic recruiting class that has brought in three talented freshman, this team is poised to perhaps do bit things in 2019-2020.

Ohio State is next in action against Minnesota Sunday.

Ohio State moves way up in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology

ESPN resident NCAA college basketball bracketologist Joe Lunardi has released his new projections. He has Ohio State making a big move.

The Ohio State basketball team has had a great start to the 2019-2020 season. The win over Cincinnati at home to start the year was a significant one, but the whitewashing of No. 10 Villanova was a head turner.

There are still things to work on, and there have been some issues scoring at times early on in the season, but it looks like roles are starting to be defined, and this team is getting an identity.

And ESPN’s famed Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has taken note.

In the latest release of his bracket projections, Lunardi has Ohio State all the way up to a No. 2 seed. This is notable because before the season, the Buckeyes were showing up around a No. 5 or No. 4 seed, but it’s clear many — Lunardi included — are starting to believe this team can do some damage nationally.

Of course now, just three games into the season, does not a postseason resume make, but the ceiling of this year’s Ohio State basketball team might be a little higher than what anyone thought.

So where would you make travel plans if this were to come to fruition? Lundardi has the Buckeyes in the East bracket, playing in Cleveland against Northeastern. Duke is the No. 1 seed in that region.

Of course this will all change significantly, but we’ll keep tabs on where the experts believe this team is.