Tag: Boston Red Sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Tampa Bay Rays (69-44)  meet the Boston Red Sox (65-50) Wednesday at Fenway Park for the second game of their three-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa rallied back from a 3-run deficit in the 6th and 7th innings of the series opener before keying the 8-4 victory with a 4-run 9th inning.

Season series: Rays lead 6-4.

LHP Josh Fleming is Tampa’s projected starter. Fleming is 9-5 with a 4.12 ERA (87 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 10 starts and eight relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 6 K against the Seattle Mariners August 4.
  • Fleming beat the Red Sox July 30 with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Tampa’s 7-3 home victory.
  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster (33 PA): 7.82 FIP with a .414 batting average (BA), .482 wOBA, .569 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 89.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Nathan Eovaldi makes his 23rd start for the Red Sox. Eovaldi is 9-7 with a 4.07 ERA (126 IP, 57 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 12-4, with 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 4 K Friday at the Toronto Blue Jays.
  • Eovaldi is 1-1 this season against Tampa with a 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
  • vs. the Rays on the current roster (123 PA): 4.88 FIP with a .286 BA, .387 wOBA, .514 xSLG, 23.6 K% and 89.2 mph EV.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Rays 7, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

BET the RAYS (+100) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in bullpen pitching and hitting and there’s an obvious “line freeze” situation in the betting market.

For instance, Tampa’s lineup ranks fourth in wRC+, sixth in wOBA and first in hard-hit rate in the majors against right-handed pitching.

Also, Boston’s bullpen is below-average in most advanced pitching metrics while the Rays relievers are top-3 in WAR, SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning since the All-Star Break.

Furthermore, according to pregame.com, the market is betting Boston at nearly a 60% clip but the line hasn’t budged from the Red Sox (-120) on the opener.

Maybe oddsmakers adjust the line closer to the first pitch, which is why I’d wait to bet this game. Plus if we see “reverse line movement” in Tampa’s direction I’d be okay laying a little vig with the Rays at minus-money.

Either way, I’m BETTING 1 unit on the RAYS (+100) at some point today.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the RAYS -1.5 (+140) for a tiny wager if at all because Tampa has the third-highest cover rate on the road at 36-20 ATS and seven of the 10 Rays-Red Sox meetings this season have been decided by 2 or more runs.

Moreover, Tampa’s lineup could do damage in the late innings for a second straight game against a Boston bullpen that’s bottom 10 in xFIP and SIERA in the second half of the year.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 10.5 (-112) since Tampa’s road games play to the Over at the highest rate in the MLB and the Rays’ AL East games have gone Over at the third-highest rate.

However, that’s probably a big reason why most of the market is also on the Over and I hate following a crowd in sports betting so I’ll stay away from this total.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (65-49) host the Tampa Bay Rays (68-44) Tuesday to kick off a three-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa has won eight of its last 10 games, which includes a three-game sweep of Boston, and has passed the Red Sox for first place in the AL East. Boston has lost eight of its last 10 games, all on the road, and is 4 games back of the Rays.

Season series: Rays lead 5-4.

RHP Luis Patino is Tampa’s projected starter. Patino is 2-3 with a 4.42 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in seven starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K against the Seattle Mariners August 3.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA (17 IP, 14 ER), 20 H, 6 BB and 20 K in three starts and one bullpen outing.

LHP Eduardo Rodríguez makes his 22nd start for the Red Sox. Rodríguez is 8-6 with a 5.33 ERA (104 2/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 10 K at the Detroit Tigers Wednesday.
  • Rodriguez picked up a no-decision June 22 at Tampa with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 9-5 victory.
  • vs. Rays on the current roster (87 PA): 5.08 FIP with a .267 batting average, .360 wOBA, .325 expected slugging percentage, 27.5 K% and 87.9 mph exit velocity.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:54 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Rays 7, Red Sox 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the RAYS (+105) because Tampa has beaten the Red Sox in five straight meetings and 13 of the last 17 games in Boston.

Furthermore, the Red Sox’s lineup is starting to regress after the All-Star Break and Tampa’s is peaking. For example, Boston’s lineup ranks in the bottom 10 of wRC+, BB/K and WAR while the Rays are in the top 10 in each of those categories.

Also, Tampa’s bullpen has by far the highest WAR in the second half of the season and ranks in the top 3 of SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate over that span. While Boston’s relief pitching has been mediocre hence their 16th-ranked WAR since the All-Star Game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Rays +1.5 (-190) because it’s out of my price range but there are so many positive run line trends for Tampa.

For instance, the Rays have the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 32-18 ATS, the fourth-best cover rate on the road at 35-20 ATS, and are 21-6 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-120) for a half unit because the Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 Rays-Red Sox meetings in Boston and Tampa has the second-highest rate of Overs as a road team.

However, my hesitancy is the vast majority of the market is backing the Over and I hate following a crowd in sports betting. Also, the Rays score more than a run per game less against left-handed pitching.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Angels (16-21) square off with the Boston Red Sox (24-16) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game set at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Red Sox with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston took Game 1 of the series 4-3 thanks to RF Hunter Renfroe’s 2-run home run in the bottom of the second and a go-ahead 2-run home run by 1B Bobby Dalbec in the bottom of the seventh.

Season series: Red Sox lead 1-0.

RHP Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Angels. Bundy is 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 14-11, in 3 1/3 IP with 6 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers May 8.
  • Career vs. the Red Sox: 3-8 with a 4.99 ERA (83 IP, 46 ER), 1.54 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 across 14 starts and 4 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 110 at-bats with a .264/.341/.436 slash line, 32/12 K/BB, 4 HR and 13 RBIs.

LHP Martin Perez is on the rubber for the Red Sox. Perez is 0-2 with a 4.01 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 7 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Boston’s 4-1 loss at the Baltimore Orioles Monday.
  • Career vs. the Angels: 5-5 with a 4.30 ERA (88 IP, 42 ER), 1.52 WHIP and 4.6 K/9 across 14 starts and 4 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Angels on the current roster: 90 at-bats with a .267/.394/.478 slash line, 15/19 K/BB, 4 HR and 14 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Angels at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Angels -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Angels -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Angels 7, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

GIMME the ANGELS (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS because they have the edge in the starting pitching department, but L.A.’s bullpen is unreliable—ranked 20th in xFIP, 23rd in SIERA, 22nd in home runs per nine innings and 28th in K-BB%.

However, Bundy’s advanced pitching numbers against current Red Sox hitters are much better than Perez’s against the Angels.

Bundy has a 25.6% strikeout rate, .295 expected wOBA and 4.20 FIP, while Perez has a 14% strikeout rate, a .398 expected wOBA and 6.93 FIP.

Also, L.A.’s lineup just got more deadly as 3B Anthony Rendon was activated off of the IL for the first game of this series and Rendon has raked lefty pitchers over his career.

Prior to this season, Rendon has a 110 or higher wRC+ and a .334 or higher wOBA vs. left-handed pitching.

Furthermore, the cutter is Perez’s most used pitch in his arsenal and Rendon has a plus-run value vs. the cutter with 100% hard-hit rate and a .390 wOBA.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t trust L.A.’s bullpen to hold a two-run lead and the Angels’ first 5 Innings run line is -0.5 (+110), which isn’t juicy enough to take a shot at.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-110) for a quarter unit since I like L.A.’s lineup vs. Boston’s starter in this one and the Angels could leave the backdoor wide open for the Over to cash with their lousy bullpen.

However, I’m generally much more comfortable betting sides rather than totals in baseball and that’s the case here.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Angels (16-20) travel to Beantown for a three-game set with the Boston Red Sox (23-16) in Fenway Park starting Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Red Sox with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. dropped back-to-back games to the Houston Astros, losing its previous series 2-1 after taking two of three against the defending-champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

But, the Angels were swept four games to nil by the Tampa Bay Rays in the previous series and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games.

Boston snapped a three-game losing skid and prevented a three-game sweep by beating the Oakland Athletics 8-1 yesterday. The Red Sox are 6-4 in their past 10 games.

Season series: 0-0.

RHP Griffin Canning is on the rubber for the Angels. Canning is 3-2 with a 5.19 ERA (26 IP, 15 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 across 5 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 9-2, in 5 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 4 K last Friday against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Career vs. the Red Sox: No appearances.

RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starter for the Red Sox. Pivetta is 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-3, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 2 K Sunday at the Baltimore Orioles.
  • Career vs. the Angels: No appearances.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Angels at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Angels +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Angels -1.5 (+150) | Red Sox +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Angels 6, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the ANGELS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS because I like L.A.’s starting pitcher more today because Pivetta allows a lot more free passes than Canning.

But, Boston’s bullpen is one of the best in the league and L.A.’s in is in the bottom-10 of several advanced pitching categories so I’m avoiding the Angels on the full games.

Both lineups are in the top-10 of wOBA and wRC+ but they are also in the bottom-3 in BB%. However, Pivetta is in the 11th percentile of BB%, 17th percentile in whiff%, and 37th percentile in expected wOBA.

Also, Canning is coming into this start with momentum after just beating the Dodgers in his previous outing and making his first career start in Fenway Park.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t like the prices of the run lines, alternate run lines and either for the First 5 innings as well.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 5.5 (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit because my read is Canning has a second straight solid outing and L.A.’s lineup can do the damage it needs to Pivetta to gain a lead.

My hesitancy and refusal to bet the full-game Under is because the Angels bullpen is a bottom-10 unit and could certainly give back a lead and open the backdoor for the Over.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (19-13) vs. Baltimore Orioles (15-16) match up Friday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 4-0 with a 4.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 28 IP over five starts.

Rodriguez faced Baltimore once this season and allowed three earned runs in five innings while whiffing seven batters. Overall, he boasts an impressive 31/3 K/BB so far this season.

RHP Matt Harvey is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. He is 3-1 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 31 IP over six starts.

Harvey faced the Red Sox in his first two starts of the season, and in those outings surrendered six earned runs in 9 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts.

In four starts since, he has just 13 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings, and his 16.4% K% for the season is fifth lowest among pitchers with 30 or more innings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Red Sox at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Orioles +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (-105) | Orioles +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Orioles 3

Money line (ML)

Harvey isn’t striking batters out and is allowing a lot of hard contact, and his ERA estimators suggest his ERA should be higher than it currently is.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez has been unlucky in regards to his home run rate, as 20% of fly balls against him have left the park, a number that should come down.

The Red Sox have the pitching edge in this one and a clear advantage on the offensive side. Back the RED SOX (-165).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Red Sox have put up 7.2 runs per game over their last six contests, and continue their stretch of games against mediocre pitching.

For the season, they rank second in runs per game as well as in both wRC+ and slugging percentage vs right-handed pitching. This sets up to be another big game for the Boston bats, so the run line offers plenty of appeal.

Take the RED SOX -1.5 (-105).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Under has hit in 15 of the last 20 Baltimore games (with one push) while hitting in half of Harvey’s six starts.

The Over has hit in four of the last five for Boston, a span in which there has been an average of 14.4 runs per game scored. Their offense should do enough to push this game OVER 9 (-105).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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