Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat predictions pick betting line spread

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The top-seeded Miami Heat host the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics Wednesday for a pivotal Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals at FTX Arena. The series is tied 2-2 and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston evened the series Monday with a 102-82 Game 4 beatdown at home. The Heat missed their first 14 field goals and the starting 5 scored the fewest points (18) by a playoff team’s starting lineup since 1970-71.

Celtics All-Star SF Jayson Tatum lit up the Heat for 31 points on 8-for-16 shooting with 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 blocks, and Boston outperformed Miami in three of the “four factors” Monday.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: Boston Celtics, Miami Heat Game 5

Celtics at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:04 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Celtics -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Heat +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread: Celtics -2.5 (-115) | Heat +2.5 (-107)
Over/Under: 203.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

PG Marcus Smart (ankle) questionable
C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Heat

PG Tyler Herro (groin) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

[tipico]

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 107, Celtics 102

Money line

PASS with a strong lean toward the Heat (+120).

I like Miami getting points and will generally sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting it to cover.

Money is pouring in on the Celtics, so the Heat’s ML will get fatter if they get bad injury news. Wait until closer to the tip-off to get a better price for Miami, both ATS and on the ML.

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Against the spread

BET HEAT +2.5 (-107).

This sharper side of the market favors Miami while the public is betting the Celtics.

According to Tipico Sportsbook, 75% of the cash is on Miami, but roughly that same percentage of the bets are on Boston. It’s wiser to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.

This is a profitable spot for the Heat, who are 4-1 ATS as home underdogs with a plus-7.5 ATS margin, 21-11-1 ATS following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss.

Miami also has a significant coaching edge since Erik Spoelstra has “been there and done that,” while Celtics coach Ime Udoka is in his first year on the job. Boston’s offense has the second-highest 3-point attempt rate in these playoffs and Spoelstra can out-scheme a predictable offense.

BET HEAT +2.5 (-107).

Over/Under

BET OVER 203.5 (-112).

Miami’s offense will bounce back from an all-time playoff clunker. This could turn into a 3-point shootout since Boston’s 3-point attempt rate is through the roof and the Heat had the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA during the regular season.

Furthermore, the total has been steamed up by sharp action, Miami is 9-2 O/U in the last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record, Boston is 8-2-1 O/U in the last 11 games as a road favorite and the Over has cashed in 10 of the last 14 Celtics-Heat meetings.

Miami plus the points (+2.5) is my preferred wager because the coaching edge and market movement are my strongest handicapping angles for Game 5. Plus, the Heat could try to muck up the game depending on who suits up for them.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 2 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks Friday at Chase Center for Game 2 of their Western Conference Finals series. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State routed Dallas 112-87 in Game 1 Wednesday as the Warriors outshot the Mavs from everywhere on the floor and held Dallas to a 14-to-13 assist-to-turnover rate.

The Warriors defended Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic very well in Game 1, holding him to just 20 points on 6-for-17 (33.3%) shooting and forcing him into 7 turnovers.

Dallas is 3-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Golden State this season with the Over/Under (O/U going 2-3.

Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Warriors -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-112) | Warriors -6.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

None

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (back) out
SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

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Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 107, Mavericks 103

Money line

SPRINKLE on MAVERICKS (+220) if at all

They are just 10-19 SU as road underdogs, while the Warriors are 36-9 SU as home favorites.

Dallas’ spread is a sharp play and this ML’s payout is juicy. It’s hard to disregard Game 1’s lopsided result but that’s what you have to do in backing the Mavericks Friday.

Game 1 was a lot more of a toss-up than the final score indicates, according to ShotQuality.com. The win probability was 50/50 and Dallas actually had a better “shot quality score” than Golden State, which is ShotQuality.com’s proprietary stat.

If the Mavs hit some of their 3-pointers, Game 1 looks a lot different. A few more Dallas 3’s would cause Golden State’s defense to close out harder on shooters and open up driving lanes for the Mavs’ ball-handlers.

The Warriors obviously have edges over the Mavs in coaching, continuity, big-game experience and depth.

Again, Dallas’ spread is my preferred wager, but there’s some value in MAVERICKS (+220).

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Against the spread

BET MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of their ML based on the previous analysis. There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market and Dallas bounces back well from losses.

According to Tipico Sportsbook, 60% of the action is on the Warriors -6.5 (-108), but more than 85% of the money is on the Mavs. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.

Dallas is 26-9 ATS following a loss with a plus-6.6 ATS margin and Mavs coach Jason Kidd has proven thus far in these playoffs that he can make in-series, and in-game, adjustments.

Dallas was in a tough spot for Game 1 playing just two days after beating the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns in Game 7 of their Western Conference semifinals series.

Another reason to back Dallas: We saw the Boston Celtics rally back from a loss to smash the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

DALLAS +6.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 213.5 (-107).

It’s the cheaper side of the total and a vast majority of the market is betting the Over 213.5 (-115). But I don’t have a strong grasp on the total, so let’s stick with Dallas’s spread.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 2 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Miami Heat (1-0) host the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics (0-1) Thursday for Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Finals with the tip-off scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami won and covered Game 1, 118-107, despite an 8-point first-half deficit because the Heat outscored the Celtics by 25 points (39-14) in the third quarter. The Heat outperformed the Celtics in all “four factors” even though Boston won three of the four quarters.

Miami SF Jimmy Butler scorched Boston for 41 points on 63.2% shooting with 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks.

The Celtics were missing two starters for Game 1. PG Marcus Smart who was sidelined by a foot injury and C Al Horford who entered the NBA’s health and safety protocols.

Celtics at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Celtics +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Heat -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread: Celtics +3.5 (-110) | Heat -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

C Al Horford (health and safety protocols) doubtful
PG Marcus Smart (foot) probable

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

[tipico]

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 109, Celtics 102

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Heat (-170) because Miami should win by margin but this ML is a little out of my price range.

The bottom line is the loss of Horford would hurt the Celtics more than the return of Smart helps them because Butler feasted on Boston’s small interior defense with Horford missing.

Butler attacked the basket Tuesday, attempting just two 3-pointers compared to 19 2-pointers and hitting 17-of-18 free throws.

Horford has Boston’s second-best adjusted on/off net rating in these playoffs (plus-14.8) according to CleaningTheGlass.com, whereas the Celtics are scoring 3.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when Smart is on the floor.

Money is coming in on Boston and I’d opt for Miami’s ML if it lowers to -150 or below but, for now, PASS.

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Against the spread

BET the HEAT -3.5 (-110) because Butler can be aggressive again with Horford most likely missing Thursday. If Butler bullies the Celtics again in Game 2, that should collapse Boston’s perimeter defense and get wide-open looks for Miami’s elite 3-point shooters.

Celtics All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown also make it easy for the Heat to defend them since they take far too many long, contested 2-pointers.

Miami PF Bam Adebayo was a Defensive Player of the Year finalist, SF P.J. Tucker won a title last season as the Milwaukee Bucks’ primary wing defender and Butler made his bones in the NBA based on his defense.

This is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market according to VegasInsider.com. Roughly 60% of the bets are on the Celtics but nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Heat.

Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the money column of the betting splits is considered the sharper side of the market.

BET the HEAT -3.5 (-110).

Over/Under

Slight LEAN OVER 207.5 (-107) only because both teams have great defenses and the total is suspiciously low considering Game 1 soared Over by 21.5 points.

However, both teams attempted at least 30 3-pointers and 32 free throws in Game 1 and if those rates continue in Game 2 then the OVER 207.5 (-107) will cash regardless of the pace.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 1 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks head to Chase Center Monday for Game 1 of their Western Conference finals series with the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas upset the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns with a humiliating 123-90 Game 7 whooping Sunday in the Western Conference semifinal round.

Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic has taken his game to another level this postseason, averaging the 2nd-most points per game (31.5) and has the 3rd-best PER (30.1) in the playoffs.

Golden State beat the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 to advance to the conference finals.

The Warriors got a vintage Game 6 performance from SG Klay Thompson to close out the series who scored 30 points on 50.0% shooting (8-for-14 from behind the arc).

The Mavs beat the Warriors 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season and the total was 2-2 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA conference finals Game 1s

Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:41 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Warriors -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-112) | Warriors -5.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

None

Warriors

SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

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Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 108, Warriors 103

Money line

SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+180) because their true price should be closer to +150 in Game 1, Dallas’s spread is a sharp play, Luka is the best player in this series and Doncic balls out vs. the Warriors.

In 9 career head-to-head meetings with Warriors’ former 2-time MVP Steph Curry, Luka and the Mavs are 5-4 SU and Doncic is putting up 31.0 points on 49.2% shooting (44.3% 3-point shooting), 7.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists. Luka outperforms Curry in all these stats in those meetings.

Payton’s absence is also a factor in this series. Payton is Golden State’s best perimeter defender and Dallas’s isolation offense featuring its 3-guard lineup should light up the Warriors’ backcourt.

The Mavs have played the highest frequency of isolation offense thus far in the playoffs and the Warriors have the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency vs. isolation offense and the two worse teams against iso-offense have been eliminated.

Luka’s numbers are a given but, if Mavs guards Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are able to “get theirs”, the Warriors are losing this series.

Dallas has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over Golden State in the ball-security department.

The Mavs were 7th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) during the regular season and 2nd in points off of turnovers allowed per game. While the Warriors had the second-worst in TOV% in the NBA and were 21st in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

We saw Golden State’s ball-security issues surface in their previous series and, if that continues vs. Dallas, then Luka and the Mavs will dictate the pace in these games.

Again, the play is to hit Dallas’s spread harder and too only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+180) if at all.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-112) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis and because there’s a line freeze in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, 70% of the money and 64% of the bets are on the Warriors but the line hasn’t budged and Golden State suspiciously has a cheaper price.

Dallas is also 6-1 ATS in the last 7 visits to Golden State and 33-18 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

The MAVERICKS +5.5 (-112) is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 213.5 (-108) because the presumed sharp side of the market is betting the Under whereas the public is betting the Over.

More money is on the Under (per Pregame.com) but more bets have been placed on the Over and the cash column is typically considered the sharper side since professional bettors wager more money than your average Joe.

However, Dallas has an absurdly-high 3-point attempt rate during these playoffs and Golden State has the two greatest 3-point shooters ever.

The UNDER 213.5 (-108) is probably the right side but I don’t love it.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 1 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 2 seed Boston Celtics face the No. 1 seed Miami Heat Tuesday in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Tip-off from FTX Arena is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston punched its ticket into the conference finals by whooping the reigning champion Milwaukee Bucks 109-81 at home Sunday in Game 7 of their semifinal series.

Miami defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 4-2 last round after giving up a 2-game lead once Sixers C Joel Embiid made his series debut in Philly in Game 3.

In this postseason, the Celtics are 7-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and 4-7 Over/Under (O/U), while the Heat are 7-4 ATS and 2-9 O/U.

During the regular season, Boston was 2-1 straight-up (SU) and ATS vs. Miami in their season series and the O/U was 1-2 .

The Heat took down the Celtics 4-2 in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals in the Orlando bubble.

Celtics at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:44 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Celtics +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Heat -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread: Celtics +1.5 (-1)7 | Heat -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 203.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celtics

PG Marcus Smart (foot) questionable

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

[tipico]

Celtics at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 105, Celtics 100

Money line

BET MIAMI (-130) to win Game 1.

The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. They led the league in 3-point shooting percentage (37.9 %) during the regular season. Plus, they ranked 2nd in defensive 3-point percentage, holding opponents to 33.9%.

The Celtics won Games 6 and 7 of their previous series because they crushed the Bucks in 3-point differential, but the percentages favor the Heat from behind the arc in this matchup.

The Heat allowed the fewest paint points per game during the regular season. Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler and C Bam Adebayo have the length, athleticism and versatility to frustrate Celtics SF Jayson Tatum and SG Jaylen Brown.

Miami comes in well-rested, whereas Boston just finished a physical 7-game series Sunday vs. a much harder opponent and the Celtics could be fatigued.

The Heat are 19-6 SU with a plus-9.0 margin of victory with a rest edge and 4-0 SU with a plus-23.8 margin of victory with four or more rest days. The Celtics are 10-12 SU when playing with a rest disadvantage.

Miami performs well on extended rest because it allows additional time for coach Erik Spoelstra to devise a game plan and the Heat’s banged-up roster to recover from nagging injuries.

BET MIAMI (-130).

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Against the spread

PASS.

The Heat’s ML (-130) is only 15 cents on the dollar more expensive than Heat -1.5 (-115), so there’s no point fussing with the spread.

But, Miami is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 games as a home favorite, 16-9 ATS when playing with a rest advantage and 4-0 ATS with four or more days of rest. This is a PASS.

Over/Under

PASS.

There isn’t a big enough margin between my prediction and the market’s projected score to take a side on the total and this feels like a sharp number.

Two of the 3 Celtics-Heat regular-season meetings cashed Under tickets, but the lowest O/U line of the 3 games was 209.5.

The oddsmakers have appropriately accounted for the playoff atmosphere and reduced pace in this total.

PASS.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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