Boston Celtics odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 2

Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (26-11) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (15-21) on Tuesday at Paycom Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Celtics vs. Thunder odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Celtics suffered a 123-111 loss to the Denver Nuggets Sunday as they failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites on the road. The loss snapped a 4-game win streak.

The Thunder lost 115-96 to the Philadelphia 76ers Saturday but fell short of covering as 3-point home underdogs. Oklahoma City has lost 3 of its last 4 games.

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Celtics at Thunder odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:06 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Celtics -380 (bet $380 to win $100) | Thunder -+310 (bet $100 to win $310)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -8.5 (-110) | Thunder +8.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 233.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Celtics at Thunder key injuries

Celtics

C Robert Williams (knee) questionable

Thunder

F Aleksej Pokusevski (leg) out
C Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Celtics at Thunder picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 121, Thunder 110

Moneyline

PASS on the moneyline in this game despite the Celtics (-380) being heavily favored and likely to win as the risk isn’t worth the return.

Against the spread

CELTICS -8.5 (-115) is a large spread, but Boston should be able to cover it on the road. While G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been fantastic this season, the Celtics own the 7th-best defensive rating and the Thunder have the 6th-worst true-shooting percentage in the NBA.

The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of 10 or more points. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road meetings against the Thunder.

Over/Under

Even though there are going to be a few talented scorers in this game, UNDER 233.5 (-112) appears to be the ideal choice. The Celtics are 1 of the best defensive teams in the league and outside of Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder don’t have a go-to scorer on the offensive end.

The Celtics are 8-1 to the Under in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 9-2-1 to the Under in their last 12 road games. The Under is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between the Celtics and the Thunder in Oklahoma City.

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Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Rockets (10-23) will square off against the Boston Celtics (24-10) on Tuesday at TD Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Rockets vs. Celtics odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Rockets defeated the Chicago Bulls 133-118 on Monday to cover as 7-point underdogs on the road. The win on Monday ended a 5-game losing streak for Houston.

The Celtics beat the Milwaukee Bucks 139-118 on Christmas to cover as 5.5-point favorites at home. Monday’s contest will be the 6th straight home game for Boston as the team is on a 2-game winning streak.

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Rockets at Celtics odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:21 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rockets +900 (bet $100 to win $900) | Celtics -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Rockets +14.5 (-105) | Celtics -14.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 230.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Rockets at Celtics key injuries

Rockets

Not yet submitted

Celtics

None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Rockets at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 119, Rockets 107

Moneyline

Go ahead and AVOID the moneyline in this game with the Celtics being massive favorites at home. Despite the expectation of Boston securing a win, betting on them to win isn’t advised at the current odds.

Against the spread

ROCKETS +14.5 (-105) is where I’m leaning in this game with it being such a large spread. While Houston is on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back, Boston has gone 2-3 ATS when favored by 10-plus points this season.

The Rockets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. The Celtics are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record.

Over/Under

Even though the Rockets are among the worst defensive teams in the NBA while the Celtics are among the best offensive teams, UNDER 230.5 (-115) is my choice. The Celtics are a strong defensive team that should prevent the Rockets from scoring a lot of points.

The Under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Rockets and the Celtics when the game is in Boston. Also, the Under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings overall.

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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (10-12) are set to face the Boston Celtics (18-4) Friday at TD Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Celtics odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat suffered a 134-121 loss to the Celtics Wednesday as they failed to cover as 9.5-point road underdogs. Miami had a 3-game win streak before the loss but has still lost 5 of its last 8 games.

The Celtics covered the spread for the 5th straight game with the win Wednesday. Boston is amid a 5-game win streak and has won 9 of its last 10 outings.

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Heat at Celtics odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Celtics -330 (bet $330 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +7.5 (-105) | Celtics -7.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (knee) questionable
G Tyler Herro (ankle) probable
G Duncan Robinson (ankle) probable
F Max Strus (shoulder) probable
G Gabe Vincent (knee) probable

Celtics

C Robert Williams (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 121, Heat 110

Moneyline

Just PASS on the moneyline in this game because the Celtics (-330) are so heavily favored at home. The risk of taking Boston straight up isn’t worth the return you’ll receive if the Celtics secure the victory.

Against the spread

The CELTICS -7.5 (-115) are the superior team right now and they own an 11-1 record at home. The Heat don’t have anyone that can contain F Jayson Tatum, who put up 49 points against Miami Wednesday.

The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and the Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Celtics.

Over/Under

While both of these teams are predicated on playing formidable defense, OVER 225.5 (-110) is the ideal wager in this game. The Heat and the Celtics have a combined 25-18-1 record to the Over this season.

The Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between theses teams in Boston.

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Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Sacramento Kings (10-7) face the Boston Celtics (14-4) Friday at TD Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Kings vs. Celtics odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Kings suffered a 115-106 loss to the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday, failing to cover as 4.5-point underdogs on the road. Sacramento was on a 7-game winning streak prior to the defeat.

The Celtics cruised to a 125-112 victory over the Dallas Mavericks Wednesday to cover as 5.5-point home favorites. Boston has won 9 of its last 10 games, with the team’s lone loss in that span coming to the Chicago Bulls Monday (121-107).

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Kings at Celtics odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Kings +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Celtics -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Kings +7.5 (-105) | Celtics -7.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 237.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Kings at Celtics key injuries

Kings

None

Celtics

F Danilo Gallinari (knee) out
C Robert Williams (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Kings at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 116, Kings 110

Moneyline

Just go ahead and AVOID the moneyline in this game with the Celtics being heavily favored at home. Taking Boston (-340) straight up isn’t worth the risk considering the minimal return you’ll receive for a win.

Against the spread

KINGS +7.5 (-105) is an enticing wager with how Sacramento has been playing recently. C Domantas Sabonis could create issues down low for an undersized Celtics team, helping the Kings keep the game closer than expected.

The Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 day of rest. Also, Sacramento is 5-2-1 ATS in its last 8 meetings with Boston.

Over/Under

Even though both of these teams have capable scorers, UNDER 237.5 (-110) is where I’m leaning as the projected total seems to be a bit too high. Sacramento and Boston have a combined 18-15-2 record to the Over this season.

The Kings have hit the Under in 5 of their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. On top of that, the Under has hit in 17 of the last 22 meetings between the Kings and the Celtics when the game takes place in Boston.

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Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (21-21) travel to the City of Brotherly Love Friday for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off against the Philadelphia 76ers (23-17) at the Wells Fargo Center. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston has won three consecutive games (2-1 against the spread), beating the New York Knicks once and the Indiana Pacers twice.

Philly, as a 5.5-point favorite, had a seven-game winning streak snapped Wednesday in a 109-98 home loss to the Charlotte Hornets.

Boston and Philly split their first two head-to-head meetings this season, but the 76ers covered both.

The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Celtics, dating back to the 2020 NBA playoffs.

Celtics at 76ers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:43 a.m. ET.

Money line: Celtics +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | 76ers -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +3.5 (-107) | 76ers -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 212.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Celtics at 76ers key injuries

Celtics

PG Marcus Smart (health and safety protocols) questionable

76ers

SF Danny Green (hip) out
SG Shake Milton (back) out

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Celtics at 76ers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 109, 76ers 103

Money line

Slight “LEAN” to the CELTICS (+133) for a small wager if at all, because I prefer their spread. If anything, I’d “sprinkle” on Boston’s money line and come over the top with the Celtics plus the points.

But the 76ers (-165) are 8-9 straight up (SU) at home and the Celtics are better than their record indicates. Boston has a minus-3.1 win differential based on adjusted net rating, which essentially means the Celtics should have three more wins. Boston is just 3-10 SU as a road underdog.

Again, my favorite wager is Boston’s spread, but I’d consider sprinkling on CELTICS (+133).

Against the spread

BET CELTICS +3.5 (-107) for 1 unit because Boston having centers Robert Williams III and Al Horford for this game will make a huge difference.

Philly won the previous meeting vs. the Celtics 108-103 (Dec. 20) with C Joel Embiid erupting for 41 points on 51.9% shooting and made 12 of 14 free throws.

But neither Williams nor Horford was active, which significantly hurt Boston’s interior defense. Also, Embiid is a master a getting to the charity stripe.

However, Williams grades in the 89th percentile of bigs in non-garbage time on/off defensive free-throw rate and Horford grades in the 83rd percentile.

Williams and Horford were on the floor in Boston’s 88-87 victory Dec. 1 and Embiid put up 13 points on 3-for-17 shooting. Embiid did get to the foul line 10 times but wasn’t nearly as dominant of a presence.

On top of that, Boston is fourth in adjusted defensive rating and Philly struggles against quality defenses.

The Sixers are 2-6 SU with a minus-6.4 adjusted net rating (ranked 22nd) and a minus-5.9 ATS margin (ranked 24th).

Finally, this is a good spot for the Celtics, who are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five as underdogs and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record. On the other hand, Philly is 6-11 ATS at home and 3-7 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record.

BET CELTICS +3.5 (-107).

Over/Under

PASS since my prediction aligns with the projected score, so there’s no value in betting the total.

I lean toward the Under 212.5 (-112) because Philly is 5-12 O/U at home and the Under is 8-3 in the last 11 Celtics-76ers meetings.

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Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Indiana Pacers (15-25) visit Beantown Monday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Boston Celtics (19-21) at TD Garden. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Indiana snapped its six-game losing skid Saturday by upsetting the Utah Jazz 125-113 as a 5-point home underdog.

The Pacers are 1-5 straight-up (SU), 3-2-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over the last two weeks with the 18th-ranked non-garbage time net rating at minus-3.3 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Boston put an end to its two-game losing skid after walloping the New York Knicks 99-75, getting revenge after the Knicks beat the Celtics two nights prior.

The Celtics are 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS and 3-4 O/U in the last 14 days with the 13th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-2.7 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

Pacers at Celtics odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 p.m. ET.

Money line: Pacers +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Celtics -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +6.5 (-115) | Celtics -6.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Pacers at Celtics key injuries

Pacers

PG Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) questionable
SG Caris LeVert (health and safety protocols) out
SF Torrey Craig (reconditioning) questionable
C Goga Bitadze (health and safety protocols) out

Celtics

PG Payton Pritchard (health and safety protocols) out

Pacers at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 110, Pacers 100

Money line

PASS even though I expect Boston to win handily because the Celtics (-270) is too rich for my blood despite that Indiana has been terrible on the road this season.

The Pacers are 3-15 SU and 7-11 ATS in away games with the 22nd-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-4.2 points per 100 possessions and the third-worst spread differential at a minus-2.5 ATS margin (CTG).

Against the spread

BET the CELTICS -6.5 (-107) for 1 unit because of Indiana’s aforementioned road game woes, Boston matches up well with the Pacers stylistically and the Celtics have taken early steam by the betting market.

Boston runs isolation offense at the fourth-highest rate and has the seventh-best offensive efficiency in isolation while Indiana has the sixth-worst defensive efficiency versus iso-ball.

Furthermore, Boston’s two All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown like to operate out of isolation sets and in the mid-range, which is a soft spot for Indiana’s defense. Simply put, Indiana doesn’t have anyone on the wing that can check Tatum or Brown.

The Celtics also attempt the 13th-highest rate of mid-range field goals and the Pacers have the fourth-worst defensive field goal percentage versus mid-range jumpers (CTG).

This is a bad spot for Indiana who’s 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games versus Boston.

Lastly, the Celtics opened up as 6-point favorites but have been steamed up to the current price by early sharp action.

BET the CELTICS -6.5 (-107).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 213.5 (-115) for 1 unit because the Celtics are 1-5 O/U in their last six as home favorites, the Pacers are 1-9 O/U in their last 10 games as road underdogs and both teams play at a bottom seven pace.

The UNDER 213.5 (-108) has been bet by sharp money as the Pacers-Celtics game opened with a 215.5-point total according to Pregame.com, and has been lowered to the current price. This Under action is despite five of the past six Pacers-Celtics meetings going Over the total.

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Boston Celtics at New York Knicks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Celtics at New York Knicks and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (18-20) play the first game of a back-to-back set with the New York Knicks (18-20) Thursday at Madison Square Garden with a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Knicks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston had its two-game win streak snapped Wednesday when the Celtics lost to the San Antonio Spurs 99-97 as 7.5-point favorites.

The Celtics are 2-4 straight-up (SU), 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over the past two weeks with the 19th-ranked non-garbage time net rating at minus-0.1 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

New York broke a two-game losing skid Tuesday by defeating the Indiana Pacers 104-94 as a 3.5-point home favorite.

The Knicks are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 2-5 O/U in the last 14 days with the 16th-ranked non-garbage time net rating at plus-0.7 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

The Celtics-Knicks are 1-1 in two meetings this season with the home team winning and covering both games and the Over cashing in each contest.

Celtics at Knicks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Celtics -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Knicks +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -1.5 (-115) | Knicks +1.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 207.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Celtics at Knicks key injuries

Celtics

None.

Knicks

C Nerlens Noel (reconditioning) questionable
PG Kemba Walker (knee) out
PG Derrick Rose (ankle) out

Celtics at Knicks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Knicks 108, Celtics 101

Money line

BET the KNICKS (+102) because I think homecourt makes the difference between these otherwise similar teams.

New York’s defensive efficiency has regressed year-over-year but the Knicks still do a good job of defending what the Celtics do frequently, which is mid-range shooting.

Boston’s All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown like to operate in the mid-range and in isolation, but New York has the third-best defensive field goal percentage versus mid-range jumpers, per CTG.

The Knicks are also much deeper or at least get a lot more production from their bench, and typically role players perform better at home.

New York’s bench scores fifth-most points per game (38.1 PPG) and has the second-best plus/minus whereas Boston’s bench scores third-fewest PPG.

Finally, there’s a line freeze in the betting market as roughly 70% of the money is on the Celtics but the line hasn’t budged off the opener according to Pregame.com. It seems like oddsmakers are comfortable with taking more pro-Boston bets.

BET the KNICKS (+102).

Against the spread

PASS unless New York’s spread goes north of +2.5 then I’d sprinkle the Knicks outright and bet New York plus the points heavier.

However, at the current number, the Knicks +1.5 (-107) just doesn’t provide enough insurance for our money line wager.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 207.5 (-107) as a fade of the extreme line movement with this total. The Celtics-Knicks look-ahead total was set at 212 and has already been steamed way down.

The sharp money is apparently hitting the Under 207.5 (-115) but I don’t like either side of the total enough to wager on it.

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Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Timberwolves (15-17) host the Boston Celtics (16-17) Monday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at the Target Center. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston has alternated between winning and losing over the past seven games; the latest being a 117-113 loss Christmas Day at the Milwaukee Bucks, but covered as 7.5-point underdogs.

Over the past two weeks, the Celtics are 3-3 straight-up (SU), 4-1-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U with the 11th-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-4.1 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Minnesota has lost back-to-back road games to the Dallas Mavericks 114-102 Tuesday and to the Utah Jazz 128-116 Thursday.

The T-Wolves are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and 4-1 O/U in the last 14 days with the 10th-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-4.6 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

Celtics at Timberwolves odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Celtics -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Timberwolves +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics -5.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Celtics at Timberwolves key injuries

Celtics

SF Jayson Tatum (health and safety protocols) out
PG Dennis Schroder (health and safety protocols) out
PF Grant Williams (health and safety protocols) out

Timberwolves

SF Anthony Edwards (health and safety protocols) out
PG D’Angelo Russell (health and safety protocols) out
PG Pat Beverley (health and safety protocols) out
SF Jarred Vanderbilt (health and safety protocols) out

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Celtics at Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 110, Timberwolves 98

Money line

PASS even though Boston is clearly the right side because the Celtics (-270) is too pricey considering they are missing their leading scorer in Jayson Tatum.

However, the price makes sense because the T-Wolves are missing four of their starting 5 and their three leading scorers.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the CELTICS -5.5 (-110) since they have covered in their past five trips to Minnesota and Boston is 9-1-1 ATS vs. the T-Wolves in their last 11 meetings.

Furthermore, Celtics wing Jaylen Brown is one of the best 30 players in the league whereas no one on Minnesota’s active roster has a prayer at making an All-Star team with KAT and Edwards sidelined.

A bet that I like more than Boston’s full-game spread is the CELTICS -2.5 (-120) FIRST HALF SPREAD.

Boston has a plus-9.3 first-half scoring margin over the past three games, all vs. teams with a winning record. While Minnesota has a minus-4.0 first-half scoring margin over that same span.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” to the Under 214.5 (-112) since both teams are missing a ton of firepower and the Under has cashed in four of Boston’s past five games as a road favorite.

But, we are getting to the party late on the Under as this total has been lowered from the 218-point opener down to the current number since news broke of Tatum being added to the COVID list.

That said, I hate following a crowd of people in sports betting so I’ll just PASS ON THE TOTAL.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (16-16) head to the Cream City for a Christmas day game against the Milwaukee Bucks (21-13) at the Fiserv Forum. The tip-off is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston has alternated between winning and losing over the last six games with the most recent being a 111-101 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 6.5-point home favorites.

The Celtics are 3-3 straight-up (SU), 3-2-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over the past two weeks with the 12th-ranked non-garbage time net rating (plus-0.3 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Milwaukee has won back-to-back games over the Houston Rockets 128-106 Wednesday and at the Dallas Mavericks 102-95 Thursday.

The Bucks are 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS and 3-5 O/U in the last 14 days with the 11th-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-2.3 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

Boston won and covered its first two meetings of the season with Milwaukee, and either side of the total cashed in those two contests. The most recent was a Celtics’ 117-103 beatdown (Dec. 13) when both teams were at full health.

Celtics at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8 p.m. ET.

Money line: Celtics +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Bucks -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +6.5 (-107) | Bucks -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Celtics at Bucks key injuries

Celtics

C Enes Kanter Freedom (health and safety protocols) out
C Al Horford (health and safety protocols) questionable
SG Josh Richardson (health and safety protocols) questionable
PF Grant Williams (health and safety protocols) questionable

Bucks

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (health and safety protocols) probable
PF Bobby Portis (health and safety protocols) questionable

Celtics at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 115, Bucks 109

Money line

Milwaukee received positive news Christmas Eve when it was announced Giannis would be a game-time decision after clearing the health and safety protocols.

Boston has played much better this season against top-10 teams in net rating. For instance, the Celtics are seventh in non-garbage time net rating (minus-1.3 points per 100 possessions) and 10th in spread differential (minus-0.5 ATS margin) vs. teams top-10 in efficiency differential (CTG).

Whereas the Bucks are 22nd in non-garbage time net rating (minus-6.8 points per 100 possessions) and the second-worst in spread differential (minus-7.5 ATS margin), per CTG.

Also, this could be the one day on the whole NBA calendar that’s popular for money line parlays. So I could see the sportsbooks needing the Celtics to pull off an upset to bust a bunch of money line parlays, which include the Bucks and other big Christmas day favorites.

In fact, according to the Yahoo! Sports app, 92% of the cash is on Milwaukee’s money line at the time of publishing. I’d guess that most of the people betting the Bucks (-205) are doing so with it parlayed with another favorite.

Slight “LEAN” to the CELTICS (+230) because I like Boston plus the points and want to “sprinkle” on the underdog’s money line.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the CELTICS +6.5 (-107) heavier than or instead of Boston’s money line.

But, I’d wait closer till tip-off before making the wager. because if Giannis gets ruled in then Milwaukee could easily balloon up to a 7-point favorite. Obviously, that’s a tough ask on Christmas day but that’s the nature of the business.

Plus the Celtics are one of the few teams equipped to face the Bucks’ double-headed wing monster in Giannis and Khris Middleton. Boston All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a legit one-two punch that has the talent to neutralize Giannis and Middleton.

Furthermore, both teams play a high frequency of isolation offense: Boston runs the second-most action out of isolation and Milwaukee runs the fourth-most. But, the Celtics rank higher in offensive efficiency out of isolation plays and the Bucks have the fourth-worst defensive efficiency vs. iso-ball.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 220.5 (-110) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer the Boston side more than the total in this game.

However, the first Celtics-Bucks meeting this season snapped a six-game streak of Overs played between these two teams. And the total only went Under by 3 points.

Lastly, according to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, vastly more money has been wagered on the Under, which has caused the total to be lowered from the 234.5-point opening total. My instinct is to fade such a large line swing.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (15-16) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (19-12) Wednesday at the TD Garden for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Cavaliers vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Cleveland has won six straight and covered 14 in a row with its latest being a 119-90 beatdown of Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks Saturday.

Over the past two weeks, the Cavs are 6-0 straight-up (SU), 6-0 ATS and 4-2 O/U with the best non-garbage time net rating (plus-23.2 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Boston fell to the Philadelphia 76ers, 108-103, Monday as 3-point home favorites and have alternated between winning and losing over the past five games. The Celtics are 2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U with the 16th-ranked non-garbage net rating (minus-2.6 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

This is the rubber match between these teams after they split the first two meetings in Cleveland earlier this season, but the Celtics covered in both.

Cavaliers at Celtics odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cavaliers +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Celtics -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Cavaliers +6.5 (-120) | Celtics -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Cavaliers at Celtics key injuries

Cavaliers

C Jarrett Allen (health and safety protocols) out
PF Evan Mobley (hip) out
SF Isaac Okoro (health and safety protocols) out

Celtics

C Robert Williams III (personal) probable
C Al Horford (health and safety protocols) out
SG Josh Richardson (health and safety protocols) out
PF Grant Williams (health and safety protocols) out

Cavaliers at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 111, Cavaliers 96

Money line

PASS since the likelihood that Boston wins is pretty high, but the Celtics (-250) is way too expensive for an NBA regular-season money line favorite. Especially during this COVID surge that has the NBA adjusting testing and roster policies mid-season.

Against the spread

BET the CELTICS -6.5 (-105) for 1 unit because Cleveland’s major edge—its frontcourt—has been negated due to a COVID outbreak within the Cavs.

For instance, both Allen and Mobley are sidelined due to the NBA’s health and safety protocols, and even backup C Ed Davis will be out as well. This forces PF Kevin Love and F Dean Wade into the starting 5 and to play a little out of position.

The bottom line is the dropoff between Allen and Mobley will be too big for the Cavs to overcome. Cleveland isn’t sneaking up on anyone at this point—everyone in the NBA knows the Cavs can play—and the Celtics have both All-Stars in the projected starting lineup.

Finally, according to the Yahoo! Sports app, roughly 70% of the money and bets placed are on the Cavs. I definitely prefer fading a public underdog who’s missing two of its best players.

BET the CELTICS -6.5 (-105).

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 216.5 (-115) since both teams have better defensive than offensive ratings and they have a combined 24-37-1 O/U record this season.

However, outside of that, I don’t have much on this total. It’s tough to predict how the Cavs will play Wednesday with all their missing players. There’s a chance Cleveland speeds this game up and randomizes it with a 3-point barrage.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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