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2024 BMW Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 BMW Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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The FedExCup playoffs roll on this week with the 2024 BMW Championship, which is being held at Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado for the 1st time. The course is located just outside Denver, a spectacular location for a PGA Tour event.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets from BetMGM Sportsbook among the 2024 BMW Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler comes in as the betting favorite once again, ranking 1st in the current FedExCup standings. Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are also among the favorites to win in Colorado. With only 50 players in the field, there is no cut and only the top 30 advance to the Tour Championship next week.

Castle Pines previously hosted The International on the PGA Tour from 1986-2006 but it hasn’t had a tour event since then. Therefore, there isn’t a lot of course history for players teeing it up this week. It’s 8,130 yards long and a par 72, but being at 6,200 feet of elevation, the ball will travel much further. As a result, the course will play closer to 7,300 yards.

BMW Championship: Best outright winner bets

BMW Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:04 p.m. ET.

Xander Schauffele (+100)

Schauffele has 8 top-5 finishes this season, putting together the best year of his career thus far. The playing field is relatively even this week at a course that hasn’t hosted the PGA Tour in almost 20 years, which should put an added emphasis on the best ball-strikers.

Collin Morikawa (+225)

Morikawa had an off week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, struggling with his ball-striking but performing well on the greens with his putter. If he can bounce back with his ball-striking and say hot with his putter, he’ll be in contention on Sunday.

BMW Championship – Top-10 picks

Tony Finau (+180)

Finau has been on a tear as of late, finishing 18th or better in 7 of his last 8 starts. He ranked 12th in the field last week from tee to green, showcasing the iron play that has made him one of the game’s best ball-strikers right now.

Aaron Rai (+250)

Rai followed up a win at the Wyndham Championship by finishing 16th in Memphis last week, staying hot following his 1st career victory on the PGA Tour. There’s no reason to think he can’t keep playing well in Colorado.

Viktor Hovland (+130)

Hovland showed very few signs of turning things around prior to his runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude last week but his performance over the weekend was enough to warrant consideration this week. He’s typically a top-tier iron player, which is often the great equalizer at unfamiliar courses.

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BMW Championship – Top-20 picks

Nick Dunlap (+120)

Dunlap has had an insanely impressive rookie year, winning twice already – once as an amateur and once as a pro. His odds are predictably long this week but he’s worthy of taking for a top-20. In a 50-player field, a top-20 is finishing just higher than the top half, something that’s very doable for him.

Taylor Pendrith (+120)

Another long shot, Pendrith is +120 for a top-20, including ties. That’s a great value on a guy who’s finished 5th, 5th and 22nd in his last 3 starts. He hits it long and while he doesn’t have the best ball-striking numbers, he’s 12th on tour in SG: putting this season.

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BMW Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Xander Schauffele (+135) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-165)

There are very few golfers who have beaten Schauffele in the last 4 months, and even fewer who have edged out Scheffler. However, this line is too heavily skewed toward Scheffler, given the way Schauffele has been playing.

Aaron Rai (-105) vs. Russell Henley (-120)

Rai and Henley are both very good ball strikers but Rai is in better form right now after winning the Wyndham Championship. I’ll take the underdog, even if Henley is only slightly favored to finish higher.

BMW Championship – Top Continental European

Viktor Hovland (+200)

There are 7 continental Europeans teeing it up this week, with Hovland being the slight favorite over Ludvig Aberg (+225). With no course history to go off of, it’s better to just back the player who’s in more impressive form.

BMW Championship – First-round leader

Xander Schauffele (+1100)

Schauffele usually comes out firing and posts a good number on Thursday, mostly because of his ability to avoid bogeys and mistakes on the course. He ranks 2nd in Round 1 scoring average (68.0) this season.

Tony Finau (+2800)

Finau’s scoring average gets progressively worse with each round, ranking 14th on tour in 1st-round scoring (69.1) compared to 85th in 4th-round scoring average (70).

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2023 BMW Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 BMW Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The FedExCup Playoffs continue with the 2nd leg this week, the 2023 BMW Championship. Olympia Fields in Illinois is hosting this event for the 2nd time, giving players a major-like test before the Tour Championship.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 BMW Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

It’s once again a loaded field with the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings teeing it up at Olympia Fields, led by Scottie Scheffler, who is No. 1 in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Xander Schauffele comes in behind him at No. 2, followed by Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. Patrick Cantlay, the 2-time defending champion of this event, is 5th in the rankings.

Olympia Fields (7,366 yards, par 70) has hosted 2 U.S. Opens and 2 PGA Championships in the past, so it certainly presents players with a challenge. The fairways are narrow and the greens throughout the course are guarded by bunkers, making them difficult to hit. The winning score in 2020 was 4-under by Rahm, who beat Dustin Johnson in a playoff.

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BMW Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Jon Rahm (+175)

Rahm won this event at Olympia Fields in 2020, grinding out a 4-round total of 4-under par as most of the field struggled. He started last week poorly with a 1st-round 73, but bounced back with 3 sub-70 rounds to move up the board a bit. He’s made for tough layouts like this one.

Collin Morikawa (+350)

Morikawa is one of the most accurate players off the tee and his iron game is top-notch, so his game is suited well for Olympia Fields’ narrow fairways and difficult greens. He finished 20th here in 2020 and is fresh off a T-13 last week.

BMW Championship – Top-10 picks

Patrick Cantlay (-145)

We can’t really base this pick on the fact that Cantlay has won the BMW Championship the last 2 years because it was played at different courses. However, he’s 4th in bogey avoidance this season, which is an important stat, and just finished 2nd last week. He’s trending up right now and the last time he played Olympia Fields in 2020, he tied for 12th.

Tommy Fleetwood (+140)

Fleetwood has 4 top-10 finishes in his last 5 starts, playing some of his best golf right now. He didn’t play here in 2020, but his ball striking, similar to Morikawa, makes him a good fit. He ranks 25th in bogey avoidance, too.

Russell Henley (+200)

Henley tied for 25th in the 2020 BMW Championship here, using his accuracy to keep the ball in the fairways, which is essential. It’s a longer course, which could hurt the shorter-hitting Henley, but he should be able to avoid bigger numbers because of his accuracy.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Brian Harman (+275)

BMW Championship – Top-20 picks

Cam Davis (+125)

Don’t look now but Davis is surging late in the year. He has 3 straight top-10 finishes, getting better each week: 10th, 7th and 6th in his last 3 starts. He’s a big hitter so if he can keep the ball close to the fairways, he won’t be penalized too badly on this tree-lined course.

Emiliano Grillo (+125)

Grillo has finished in the top 20 in 4 of his last 5 starts, including 2 top 10s recently. He hits a lot of greens, ranking 31st in GIR rate, which will be essential this week at Olympia Fields.

Andrew Putnam (+210)

Putnam is once again a long shot but he’s finished 27th and 24th in each of his last 2 starts. In terms of bogey avoidance, he ranks 8th on tour. He’s playing well right now.

BMW Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Tom Kim (+105) vs. Rickie Fowler (-130)

There aren’t many matchups this week with a smaller field, and there are even fewer that I like. But I’ll take Kim as the underdog against Fowler, who has finished 42nd, 23rd and 58th in his 3 starts since his win. Kim, on the other hand, has 2 top-10s and a T-24 in his last 3 starts.

BMW Championship – Top Australian

Cam Davis (+100)

I was going to take Davis (-105) against Jason Day (-120) head-to-head until I realized you can get better odds with Davis to finish as the top Australian; Day is the only other Australian player in the field. Since his win in May, Day has missed 3 cuts and finished 45th, 2nd and 52nd.

BMW Championship – First-round leader

Patrick Cantlay (+1600)

Cantlay is coming off a fantastic appearance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, where he finished runner-up, so he could carry that momentum into the 1st round this week in Illinois.

Jordan Spieth (+2500)

Spieth came out hot last week, leading the field with an opening-round 63 on Thursday. Can he go back-to-back as the FRL?

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Collin Morikawa (+400)

Morikawa is up against Schauffele (+280), Max Homa (+375), Fleetwood (+375) and Spieth (+400) in this group, which is a loaded collection of 5 players. But he’s the best ball striker of the bunch and that should be the most important trait this week.

Will there be a playoff? Yes: (+350)

There was a playoff in the 2020 event here and in the 2021 BMW Championship, plus Cantlay only won last year by 1 shot over Scott Stallings. The smaller field makes a playoff less likely, but we’ll take a shot here.