The FedExCup Playoffs continue with the 2nd leg this week, the 2023 BMW Championship. Olympia Fields in Illinois is hosting this event for the 2nd time, giving players a major-like test before the Tour Championship.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 BMW Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
It’s once again a loaded field with the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings teeing it up at Olympia Fields, led by Scottie Scheffler, who is No. 1 in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Xander Schauffele comes in behind him at No. 2, followed by Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. Patrick Cantlay, the 2-time defending champion of this event, is 5th in the rankings.
Olympia Fields (7,366 yards, par 70) has hosted 2 U.S. Opens and 2 PGA Championships in the past, so it certainly presents players with a challenge. The fairways are narrow and the greens throughout the course are guarded by bunkers, making them difficult to hit. The winning score in 2020 was 4-under by Rahm, who beat Dustin Johnson in a playoff.
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BMW Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Jon Rahm (+175)
Rahm won this event at Olympia Fields in 2020, grinding out a 4-round total of 4-under par as most of the field struggled. He started last week poorly with a 1st-round 73, but bounced back with 3 sub-70 rounds to move up the board a bit. He’s made for tough layouts like this one.
Collin Morikawa (+350)
Morikawa is one of the most accurate players off the tee and his iron game is top-notch, so his game is suited well for Olympia Fields’ narrow fairways and difficult greens. He finished 20th here in 2020 and is fresh off a T-13 last week.
BMW Championship – Top-10 picks
Patrick Cantlay (-145)
We can’t really base this pick on the fact that Cantlay has won the BMW Championship the last 2 years because it was played at different courses. However, he’s 4th in bogey avoidance this season, which is an important stat, and just finished 2nd last week. He’s trending up right now and the last time he played Olympia Fields in 2020, he tied for 12th.
Tommy Fleetwood (+140)
Fleetwood has 4 top-10 finishes in his last 5 starts, playing some of his best golf right now. He didn’t play here in 2020, but his ball striking, similar to Morikawa, makes him a good fit. He ranks 25th in bogey avoidance, too.
Russell Henley (+200)
Henley tied for 25th in the 2020 BMW Championship here, using his accuracy to keep the ball in the fairways, which is essential. It’s a longer course, which could hurt the shorter-hitting Henley, but he should be able to avoid bigger numbers because of his accuracy.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Brian Harman (+275)
BMW Championship – Top-20 picks
Cam Davis (+125)
Don’t look now but Davis is surging late in the year. He has 3 straight top-10 finishes, getting better each week: 10th, 7th and 6th in his last 3 starts. He’s a big hitter so if he can keep the ball close to the fairways, he won’t be penalized too badly on this tree-lined course.
Emiliano Grillo (+125)
Grillo has finished in the top 20 in 4 of his last 5 starts, including 2 top 10s recently. He hits a lot of greens, ranking 31st in GIR rate, which will be essential this week at Olympia Fields.
Andrew Putnam (+210)
Putnam is once again a long shot but he’s finished 27th and 24th in each of his last 2 starts. In terms of bogey avoidance, he ranks 8th on tour. He’s playing well right now.
BMW Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Tom Kim (+105) vs. Rickie Fowler (-130)
There aren’t many matchups this week with a smaller field, and there are even fewer that I like. But I’ll take Kim as the underdog against Fowler, who has finished 42nd, 23rd and 58th in his 3 starts since his win. Kim, on the other hand, has 2 top-10s and a T-24 in his last 3 starts.
BMW Championship – Top Australian
Cam Davis (+100)
I was going to take Davis (-105) against Jason Day (-120) head-to-head until I realized you can get better odds with Davis to finish as the top Australian; Day is the only other Australian player in the field. Since his win in May, Day has missed 3 cuts and finished 45th, 2nd and 52nd.
BMW Championship – First-round leader
Patrick Cantlay (+1600)
Cantlay is coming off a fantastic appearance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, where he finished runner-up, so he could carry that momentum into the 1st round this week in Illinois.
Jordan Spieth (+2500)
Spieth came out hot last week, leading the field with an opening-round 63 on Thursday. Can he go back-to-back as the FRL?
More expert prop bet predictions
Group B winner: Collin Morikawa (+400)
Morikawa is up against Schauffele (+280), Max Homa (+375), Fleetwood (+375) and Spieth (+400) in this group, which is a loaded collection of 5 players. But he’s the best ball striker of the bunch and that should be the most important trait this week.
Will there be a playoff? Yes: (+350)
There was a playoff in the 2020 event here and in the 2021 BMW Championship, plus Cantlay only won last year by 1 shot over Scott Stallings. The smaller field makes a playoff less likely, but we’ll take a shot here.
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