Tag: Blue Jays Twins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Toronto Blue Jays (65-70) and Minnesota Twins (72-61) meet Friday to open a 3-game weekend series in Minneapolis. The 1st pitch for the series opener is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 2-1

Toronto is coming off a 2-2 split with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays scored just 5 runs in 3 of the games, but over that stretch they had 19 hits and 7 walks. Their offense was undone by a 2-for-21 performance with runners in scoring position.

Minnesota has squandered a chance to overtake the scuffling Cleveland Guardians by going just 2-8 over its last 10 games. That includes 4 straight losses, all of which have come at Target Field.

Blue Jays at Twins projected starters

RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Gausman (12-9, 4.1 ERA) is making his 27th start. He owns a 1.22 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 151 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 8-2 win vs. Los Angeles Angels Sunday
  • Career vs. Twins: 1-4, 6.94 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 46 ER), 77 H, 20 BB, 71 K in 12 starts
  • Has yielded a .606 OPS while pitching to a 3.13 ERA over his last 9 starts

Lopez (12-8, 4.26 ERA) is making his 27th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 148 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 6-0 win vs. St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
  • Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-0, 5.59 ERA, 9 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 15 K in 2 starts
  • Has not allowed a run over his last 13 IP

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Blue Jays at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:41 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Blue Jays +134 (bet $100 to win $134) | Twins -158 (bet $158 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-164) | Twins -1.5 (+136)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Blue Jays at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Blue Jays 3

Moneyline

The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 games against Toronto. Before its recent slide at home, Minnesota had been 10-3 at Target Field since the break.

Per ESPN, current Twins batters own a robust .871 OPS against Gausman, whose recent surge has been very much fueled by a low batting average on balls in play.

Lopez has season numbers that swing the other way, and from an analytics standpoint he’s a significantly better hurler than what shows in his surface line.

Look for the Twins to rebound from their recent missteps after an off day. BetMGM Sportsbook has the better leverage line here: BACK THE TWINS (-150).

Run line/Against the spread

Better value on the ML play: PASS.

Over/Under

The Under has cashed in 5 of Toronto’s last 6 road games and in 5 of the club’s last 6 contests at Target Field. The last 5 overall series meetings have also hit the Under.

The pitching, some tilt in Minnesota’s defense/pitching numbers toward lower scores and a reset of the Twins bullpen after an off day all make for value on the UNDER 8 (-110).

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AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) and Minnesota Twins (87-75) continue their best-of-3 AL Wild Card series  on Tuesday. First pitch at Target Field in Minneapolis is slated for 4:38 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s  lines around the Blue Jays vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Twins lead 1-0; teams split 6 games during the regular season

Toronto struggled the last few weeks of the season and went 10-19 with a .684 OPS in its last 29 games. The Blue Jays were held to 1 run in a 3-1 setback in Tuesday’s series opener.

The Twins got 2 home runs from DH Royce Lewis in the Game 1 win. Since Sept. 19, Minnesota is 9-3 in its last 12 games and 5-2 in its last 7 contests at Target Field.

Blue Jays at Twins projected starters

RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Berrios logged 32 starts in the regular season. He went 11-12, notching a 3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 189 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 10 K in 6-0 home loss vs. the New York Yankees last Wednesday; owns a 4.53 ERA over his last 7 starts
  • 2023 road stats: 5-6, 3.97 ERA in 99 2/3 IP across 17 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Twins: 3-1, 4.03 ERA in 29  IP (2021-23)
  • Owns a 3.75 ERA in 12 career postseason innings

Gray made 32 starts in the regular season, going 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA . He registered a 1.15 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9 K/9 across 184 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K in 2-1 home loss vs. Oakland Athletics Thursday
  • 2023 home stats: 4-5, 2.67 ERA in 97 2/3 IP across 17 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays: 0-1, 4.24 ERA in 23 1/3 IP (2018-23)
  • Owns a 2.95 ERA in 21 1/3 career postseason innings (2013, 2017)

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Blue Jays at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:02 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Blue Jays +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Twins -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
    Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-178) | Twins -1.5 (+146)
    Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -102 | U: -120)

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Blue Jays at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Blue Jays 4

Moneyline

Minnesota is the all-around lean for the series, but the pricing might not be great for this 2nd game after the Tuesday win and with a likely overvalued  Gray twirling for the home nine.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

A PASS is the suggestion, but the tag here is noteworthy if you can’t chip away as much at Gray: bettors siding with the Twins might consider this Minnesota -1.5 action if the return is +165 or better.

Over/Under

The season analytic numbers for these clubs reveal they have both slightly overperformed in run prevention while underperforming at the plate. Add in 2 fade-able starting pitchers for this game and some bullpen back-end types not being available after 9 total relievers were used Tuesday, and the Over figures to bring value.

Both Berrios and Gray benefited from left-on-base rates over 76%. Gray has gotten by with fly balls leaving the yard at a tiny 5.2% rate. Both pitchers have expected-ERA figures in the 4.00 range.

On a warmed-up-weather day in Minneapolis, BACK THE OVER 8 (-102).

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AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) and Minnesota Twins (87-75) meet Tuesday to open a best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series. First pitch at Target Field in Minneapolis is slated for 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s  lines around the Blue Jays vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

Toronto scuffled over the last few weeks of the season, going 10-19 with a .684 OPS since Sept. 11. Toronto sports a lesser lineup than perhaps what was expected, but the Jays have been above average with their pitching and defense. Their 4.14 runs per game (RPG) rank 6th in the league.

The Twins re tied for MLB’s 3rd-best runs-allowed figure (4.07 RPG). The  AL Central champions edged the Jays 28-26 in scoring over their 3-3 split during the season.

Blue Jays at Twins projected starters

RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Gausman made 31starts in the regular season. He was 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA, while logging a 1.18 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 185 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 2-0 home loss vs. the New York Yankees last Tuesday; pitched 13 shutout innings over his last 2 regular-season starts
  • 2023 road stats: 7-5, 3.27 ERA in 85 1/3 IP across 15 starts; owns a 2.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP on the road over the last 3 season
  • Career vs. Twins: 1-4, 6.35 ERA in 56 2/3  IP (2014-23)
  • Owns a 4.57 ERA in 21 2/3 career postseason innings

Lopez made 32 starts in the regular season, going 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 194 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home win vs. the Oakland Athletics Wednesday
  • 2023 home stats: 5-3, 4.21 ERA in 98 1/3 IP
  • Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-0, 5.59 ERA in 9 2/3 IP
  • In 5 career postseason IP: 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K

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Blue Jays at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:03 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Blue Jays +104 (bet $100 to win $104) | Twins -122 (bet $122 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-220) | Twins -1.5 (+180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Blue Jays at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Blue Jays 3

Moneyline

Minnesota is 8-3 over its last 11 games and 4-2 across its last 4 at home.

Gausman has a solid ERA of late (2.86 over last 6 starts), but that figure is buoyed by some kind rates around the margins. The veteran right-hander has not been hit hard lately, but he is prone to more fly balls and spells of more frequent barreled contact.

The Twins have averaged 4.80 runs per game while allowing 4.07. Their overall record has been hurt by an inexplicable 19-27 mark in 1-run games. But Minnesota has had the better bullpen over the last month or so.

The price here offers value: BACK MINNESOTA (+104).

Run line/Against the spread

Look to the Moneyline for slightly better value in this one: PASS.

Over/Under

The season analytic numbers for these clubs reveal they have both slightly overperformed in run prevention while underperforming at the plate. In a vacuum, or especially with some starting pitching slated toward an Over, that would be the lean.

That’s not the case for Game 1 with this particular pair of starters.

PASS.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Blue Jays (27-26) and Minnesota Twins (27-25) meet Sunday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Target Field is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

Toronto lost 9-7 on Saturday as -110 road underdogs. The game was tied at 4 through the bottom of the 5th inning, until the Twins hit 4 HRs in the next 3 innings to take control. Toronto scored 3 runs in the 9th inning, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the Twins big bats.

Minnesota is 2-3 on his homestand, but has a 16-11 home record for the season. The Blue Jays are 2-3 in their last 5 games and are 14-17 on the road.

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Blue Jays at Twins projected starters

RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Bailey Ober

Berrios (4-4, 4.22 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 59 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K, in a 20-1 road win Tuesday vs. Tampa Bay Rays
  • Career vs. Minnesota: 2-1 with a 5.01 ERA (23.1 IP, 23 ER), 18 H, 5 HR, 7 BB, 30 K in 4 starts

Ober (3-1, 2.55 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, x2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 35 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 2 K, in a 6-4 home loss Monday vs. San Francisco Giants
  • Career vs. Toronto: 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA (9.1 IP, 5 ER), 8 H, 3 HR, 2 BB, 9 K in 2 starts

Blue Jays at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:52 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) | Twins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Blue Jays at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

LEAN BLUE JAYS (-115).

Neither team has been hot lately and the teams are very evenly matched. The series is tied at 1-1 this season and tied at 5-5 in their last 10 matchups overall. The Blue Jays being 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota is the only thing that either team has an advantage on.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. 

The Twins at +1.5 (-175) are enticing, but the line is too risky. If anything, a bet on the Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) might be in order, but best to stay with the moneyline and/or O/U instead.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-110). 

For Toronto the Over is 3-0-1 in Berrios’ last 4 starts after allowing 5+ runs in their previous game. For the Blue Jays the Over is also 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a less than 1.15 WHIP and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game.

The Over is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Blue Jays (27-25) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins (26-25) on Saturday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Blue Jays lead 1-0

The Blue Jays picked up a 3-1 victory in the series opener Friday. OF George Springer, SS Bo Bichette, 2B Whit Merrifield, and OF Kevin Kiermaier all had multi-hit performances to give Toronto just its 3rd win in its last 10 contests.

The Twins have also gone 3-7 in its last 10 games following Friday’s defeat. Minnesota is still 2 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central despite its recent woes.

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Blue Jays at Twins projected starters

RHP Chris Bassitt vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Bassitt (5-3, 3.03 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 62 1/3 IP.

  • After giving up a combined 19 ER in his first 6 starts, he’s surrendered just 2 total ER in his last 4 outings
  • Has pitched at least 7 innings in 3 of his last 4 turns

Lopez (2-3, 3.90 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 60 IP.

  • Has allowed multiple ER in 8 of his last 9 starts
  • Has struck out 7-plus batters in 8 of his first 10 turns

Blue Jays at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Twins -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+155) | Twins +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Blue Jays at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Twins 2

Moneyline

With both teams struggling in recent stretches, the BLUE JAYS (-110) are the pick on the road in this showdown. Toronto is 4-0 in its last 4 games against teams from the AL Central.

Run line/Against the spread

BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+155) has decent value with Bassitt pitching better in recent outings and the Blue Jays registering the 3rd-best wRC+ (113) against right-handed pitching. Also, the Twins continue to roll out a mediocre lineup.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-110) is the lean in this game with Bassitt and Lopez producing solid performances this season. The Blue Jays are 6-0 to the Under in their last 6 games against the AL Central and the Twins are 4-0 to the Under in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning record.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (58-46) and Minnesota Twins (55-49) open a 4-game series Thursday at Target Field. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Twins lead Blue Jays, 2-1

The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but they had a 3-game win streak snapped Wednesday in a 3-2 loss at the Tampa Bay Rays. They lead the league with a .264 team batting average.

The Twins have hit a rough patch recently, going just 5-5 in their last 10 games and winning only 8 of their last 20. They still maintain a 1-game lead in the AL Central, though.

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Blue Jays at Twins projected starters

RHP Alek Manoah vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Manoah (11-5, 2.43 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 126 IP.

  • Was surprisingly roughed up by the Detroit Tigers in his last outing, tying a season-high in runs allowed (4) and hits (7), lasting only 5 1/3 innings.
  • The Blue Jays are just 2-4 in Manoah’s last 6 starts.

Gray (6-3, 3.41 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 74 IP.

  • Has allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 11 innings, striking out 12 batters in that span.
  • Despite solid starts in his last 2 outings, Gray’s ERA ballooned from 2.17 to 3.41 in July.

Blue Jays at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Blue Jays -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Twins +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+133) | Twins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Blue Jays at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Twins 3

Money line

This is a close matchup between two teams above .500 with solid pitchers on the mound. The Blue Jays have been the hotter team as of late, and I like them in this contest against a Twins team that hasn’t been putting up many runs recently.

Bet the BLUE JAYS (-125) to win outright on the road.

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Run line/Against the spread

With the lack of runs the Blue Jays have been putting up (only 22 in their last 7 games), I don’t know that they’ll plate enough runs to cover the spread against a quality pitcher like Gray.

I also don’t like the Twins +1.5 (-165) because it would require a fair amount of risk for a low return. I’m going to PASS on the run line.

Over/Under

Though the total has gone Over in each of their first 3 meetings of the season, neither team has been scoring a ton recently. The Twins have scored at least 5 runs just once in their last 7 games and now they face Manoah.

Bet the UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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