The Toronto Blue Jays (25-22) open a 4-game divisional series with the Tampa Bay Rays (34-14) Monday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Blue Jays lead series 2-1
The Blue Jays are stuck in a nosedive, dropping 4 games in a row and 6 of their last 7 games overall. Toronto is in last place in the AL East but it’s still over .500 despite trailing the division-leading Rays by 8.5 games. Every team in the division has a positive run differential, but Toronto is last with a plus-7 and is also in last place in the AL East with 214 runs scored.
The Rays have posted a 21-4 record at Tropicana Field and continue to lead the majors with a plus-124 differential. Tampa is 2nd in the league with 290 runs plated, trailing just the Texas Rangers (297).
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Blue Jays at Rays projected starters
RHP Chris Bassitt vs. RHP Trevor Kelley
Bassitt (5-2, 3.05 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 56 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 3-0 home win in 10 innings vs. the New York Yankees Wednesday
- Record in May: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (23 IP, 0 ER), 9 H, 7 BB, 20 K in 3 starts
Kelley (0-1, 7.50 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 3.0 K/9 in 6 IP innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K in an 6-5 road loss vs. the New York Yankees on May 12
- Splits vs. Toronto in 2022: 0-0, 13.50 ERA (2 IP, 3 ER), .333 OBA in 2 relief appearances
Blue Jays at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-200) | Rays -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Blue Jays at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 4, Rays 2
Moneyline
The BLUE JAYS (+100) are a sharp play at even money. Bassitt has been untouchable in May, and Toronto has outscored the opposition 10-0 in his 3 outings. The Jays are much more attractive with a red-hot starter, as opposed to the Rays working with an opener.
The Jays are 19-8 in the past 27 series openers, although there is some risk here since Toronto is 1-10 in the past 11 inside the division. Still, the pitching matchup is heavily tilted in Toronto’s favor.
Run line/Against the spread
The Blue Jays +1.5 (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return if you want a run of insurance and don’t trust them straight up. Toronto has won 4 of the past 5 meetings against Tampa Bay, and it is a better play straight up.
The Rays have won just 2 of their last 5 games and are 4-5 since May 12. That stretch includes a 1-5 mark in their last 6 on the run line as favorites with 3 outright losses.
PASS.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-110) is a tremendous play.
There is a little bit of concern with this being a bullpen game for the Rays, but Bassitt has been tossing up nothing but donuts in May.
The Under is also 12-4-1 in the past 17 meetings between these teams in St. Petersburg and is 13-6-1 in the past 20 games on turf for the Jays, too.
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