Tag: blue chip ratio

Wisconsin still not past Bud Elliott’s vaunted Blue-Chip Ratio threshold for 2024

History shows that the #Badgers will not be making a run this year

Wisconsin football does not have a chance to win the national championship in 2024. At least that’s what history says, as the Badgers are not past the vaunted 50% Blue-Chip Ratio.

CBS Sports’ Bud Elliott began this look at title contenders through the lens of recruiting success back in 2013. The Blue-Chip Ratio specifically is the percentage of players on a roster who were four or five-star recruits. If that number is more than half, or more than 50%, then the team qualifies.

Related: Big Ten Football Power Index Rankings for 2024: Which teams are underrated, overrated?

There has never been a team to win the national championship with a BCR of less than the 50% threshold. Several have come close, but none have won the title game.

So according to that history, the 16 teams that can realistically win the national title in 2024 are Ohio State (90% BCR), Alabama (88%), Georgia (80%), Texas A&M (79%), Oregon (76%), Oklahoma (73%), Texas (72%), LSU (70%), Notre Dame (67%), Clemson (64%), Florida (63%), Miami (61%), Penn State (61%), USC (59%), Michigan (56%) and Auburn (53%).

For reference, Wisconsin finished the class of 2024 recruiting cycle with the program’s first-ever Blue-Chip Ratio of 50% (11 four-star players of 22 total commitments). The 2025 class is back down to 25% (5/20) — which is still a high mark compared to where the program was recruiting a decade ago.

Wisconsin is at least 3-4 record-breaking high school and transfer portal recruiting cycles away from getting the roster close to the 50% threshold. Until then, it’s hard seeing the program hit its ceiling (which is, according to DC Mike Tressel, is winning national championships).

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Where Wisconsin’s class of 2025 ranks after Jahmare Washington commitment

Where Wisconsin’s class of 2025 ranks after Jahmare Washington commitment

Wisconsin football’s class of 2025 landed three-star cornerback Jahmare Washington on Sunday. His commitment is the first from the program’s June 7 official visit weekend and brought the class to 15 commitments.

The addition of Washington moved Luke Fickell’s group to No. 13 in the 247Sports composite. It remains No. 4 in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State (No. 1 overall), USC (No. 4) and Penn State (No. 12).

Related: Ranking the highest rated recruits in the history of Wisconsin football

Wisconsin’s upward trajectory in the class is noteworthy after the program finished the 2024 class No. 25 in the nation with a blue-chip percentage of 50%.

However, Fickell’s 2025 group currently lacks the top-end talent he finished the 2024 cycle with. The Badgers have only one 247Sports composite four-star player committed: offensive tackle Logan Powell.

That 2024 group had commitments from the class’ No. 4 and No. 13 offensive tackles, the No. 21 and No. 26 defensive tackles and the No. 26 edge rusher. The group was top-down one of the program’s best ever. Significantly, it landed top-end talent at the most important positions on the field.

This 2025 class still has a long way to reach that mark. Its top commits are the class’ No. 25 offensive tackle, No. 43 wide receiver, No. 31 offensive tackle, No. 35 offensive tackle, No. 40 cornerback, No. 60 linebacker and No. 46 cornerback.

Importantly, neither the 2024 nor 2025 class has a commitment from a top-end, difference-making quarterback. The 2024 class brought Mabrey Mettauer, who finished the cycle as the No. 52 QB in the class, while the 2025 group has a commitment from three-star Landyn Locke, the No. 50 signal caller in the class.

Luke Fickell has built a strong foundation in the class of 2025. More difference-making commitments are needed before calling it one of his best.

Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion.

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Wisconsin’s class of 2024 just crossed an important threshold

Was Luke Fickell’s first full class a success?

Wednesday marks the official end of the 2024 recruiting cycle, meaning the conclusion of Luke Fickell’s first full recruiting cycle as head coach at Wisconsin.

The Badgers’ 2024 group finishes the cycle ranked 23rd in the nation and seventh in the new-look Big Ten. It is a clear step forward after years of recruiting stagnation under former head coach Paul Chryst.

The group has been known for months. It is headlined by top-100 offensive tackle Kevin Haywood, four-star running back Dilin Jones, four-star interior offensive lineman Emerson Mandell and four-star defensive lineman Ernest Willor. However, there was an update worth noting this week.

Related: Where each Wisconsin Badgers signee finished in final class of 2024 recruiting rankings

Linebacker Thomas Heiberger picked up a fourth star on 247Sports.com, giving the Badgers 11 four-star recruits in the class. That means 11 blue-chippers were among the 22 signees.

For those interested in the importance of that detail, Bud Elliott breaks it down. No team with a full roster talent composite under the 50% threshold has ever won the national championship.

Some have come close (TCU in 2022 and Washington in 2023), but none has done it.

Does this mean Wisconsin will start competing for national championships? Likely not. The roster still has a ways to go before it cracks the 50% threshold.

But this was Fickell’s first full cycle in Madison. This group offers the promise that better classes might be on the horizon, classes that hopefully begin to crack the nation’s top 15. That would mean a sizable increase of talent on the roster and the possibility that Wisconsin enters the territory Michigan was in last year, which was good enough to win it all.

Much must go right for Fickell and his staff on and off the field. But I’ve talked endlessly about the importance of the blue chip percentage and Wisconsin’s need for more star talent on the roster. I’d be foolish to not point out the Badgers just hit the 50% threshold in a class for the first time.

Where Oregon ranks in national blue-chip recruiting ratio ahead of 2023 season

Where Oregon ranks in national blue-chip recruiting ratio ahead of 2023 season

There are a number of ways that you can look at recruiting and the impact that it has on a roster. While many schools across the nation spend millions of dollars, working hard to build the most lavish facilities and give prospects the most luxurious stay on visits when trying to convince them to play for their school, the end result is always what a roster looks like when a recruiting cycle is signed and done.

Once that happens, we like to use the 247Sports Blue-Chip Ratio to look at rosters across the league and determine who has amassed the most talent over the years.

The ratio is simple — it looks at all of the players on a football roster and takes into account how many of the roster spots are filled by someone who was a blue-chip recruit, ie. a 4-star or 5-star player coming out of high school.

Some of the best teams in the nation — Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, etc. — have blue-chip ratios that reach over 80 or 90%, while a majority of the top schools in the nation boast a ratio closer to 60 or 70%.

So where is the Oregon Ducks’ blue-chip ratio going into the 2023 season? Let’s take a look:

Does Oregon have enough talent on the roster to compete for a championship in 2022?

The Blue Chip Ratio assesses whether or not a team has recruited well enough to compete for a championship. Did the Ducks make the cut?

Many things need to happen before a team can win a national championship in college football.

You need to have the right coach calling the right plays and the players executing those plays on the field. You need some injury luck and a few fortunate bounces. More than anything, though, you need talented players who can stand apart from the rest of the field. That starts with recruiting.

If a team has all of those things, there’s a good chance it can compete for a title. How do we figure out which teams are equipped for that though? Fortunately, there’s the 247Sports Blue Chip Ratio, which has been running for a number of years now. Here’s how Bud Elliot explained the ideology:

Sometimes, the most talented team in college football is the champion. Sometimes, it’s a lesser-talented team. But what is the minimum level of talent needed to win it all? That’s a potentially evolving question of interest every year.

I track that minimum required level of recruiting necessary to win a title and publish the teams who have met the standard annually in Blue-Chip Ratio. Since its inception in 2013 it’s been referenced on all the major broadcast networks and referred to by head coaches. It’s not the most complicated calculation in the world, but it’s a great way to figure out the top 10 percent or so of the teams in the sport which can actually take home the title.

Basically, a team will have an easier chance to be successful if it has more “blue chip players” — 4 and 5 star — than not. Seems simple, right? It gets more complicated than that, of course, especially in the world of the transfer portal.

After doing all of the calculations, though, the newest version of the Blue Chip Ratio is out for the 2022 season. So which 15 teams can realistically compete for a national championship this year, and where are the Oregon Ducks among them? Take a look:

Recruiting: Analyzing Auburn’s blue-chip additions to the 2022 team

We saw a jump in blue-chip talent from 2021 to 2022 for Auburn.

The name of the game is blue-chip talent acquisition. How many four-star and five-star players can you get for your football team? Looking at the top schools, they do it at a high level. Much the reason that they are more often than not, competing for national championships and conference titles.

Going into the 2021 season, head coach Bryan Harsin inherited a team with a blue-chip ratio of 56%. That put his team with the 11th most blue-chip players, tied with the Oregon Ducks and 2022 opponent the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Among the top SEC schools, Auburn comes in at No. 6 in terms of the ratio in the 2021 season. Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, and Texas A&M all came of them.

When it comes to adding blue-chip talent through the 2022 recruiting class, the Tigers finished 11th. The staff added four-star players with 56% of their 18 signees. Thanks in large part to the efforts by one of the top recruiters, Zac Etheridge.

What 247Sports Says…

Todd Van Emst/AU Athletics

Auburn landed a top-20 class on National Signing Day, though its fans will gripe that it ranks just 8th in the SEC. 10 of Auburn’s 18 signees are rated four-stars. And the back seven of the defense was addressed with the likes of linebacker Robert Woodyard, corners JaDarian Rhym and Austin Ausberry, and safety Tre Donaldson. The big question right now for Auburn is what happens with coach Bryan Harsin.

In the 2021 recruiting class, which was a transition under Harsin, the team signed just 31.6% blue-chip players. That is a noticeable improvement under the first-year head coach. It was expected to see a dip due to the movement but they did a better job of addressing it in 2022.

Provided the head coach returns in 2023, they should focus on improving that number further.