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NFL News, a look at some early-season RB situations to monitor and DFS “Pay-ups, Stay-aways and Value Plays.”
In this fantasy football podcast episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL News, a look at some early-season RB situations to monitor and DFS “Pay-ups, Stay-aways and Value Plays.”
So Huddle up, tune in and get Blitzed.
Thank goodness we have one more week of multiple-game DFS for this football season. I would hate to go out as roughly as I did this last week. I actually had all the right plays, I just failed to execute the proper combinations. Then there was the whole overexposure to Tyreek Hill, under exposure to Travis Kelce (because of his knee) thing. That pivot alone cost me some dough. Well, I suppose you cannot win them all. That said, let’s go out on top with a huge Conference Championship week.
Thank goodness we have one more week of multiple-game DFS for this football season. I would hate to go out as roughly as I did this last week. I actually had all the right plays, I just failed to execute the proper combinations. Then there was the whole overexposure to Tyreek Hill, under exposure to Travis Kelce (because of his knee) thing. That pivot alone cost me some dough. Well, I suppose you cannot win them all. That said, let’s go out on top with a huge Conference Championship week.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs pass defense which was so good down the stretch is showing a few leaks. This should offer Ryan Tannehill a little operating room. I don’t love Tannehill, but I feel he is the safest non-Mahomes play at QB this week. Speaking of Patrick Mahomes, he is option 1A, 1B, 1C, and 1D this week. I’m not going to downplay the Titans’ strong showing over the last three weeks, as they held Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson to a combined two total TDs. Still, I must mention that Mahomes posted 446-3 against this same defense back in Week 10 (and that was on a not-quite-100% knee). As the season has progressed, Mahomes has gotten his sea legs back and he is running with ease. Plus, did you see what he did last week in the face of pressure? Mahomes will post his standard 300-3 and add 40+ on the ground. Good luck fading that.
I didn’t fade Derrick Henry last week, and I won’t fade him this week either. There just aren’t enough alternative options to pivot to. Unless you trust Aaron Jones at San Fran. It should be noted that KC is much more amenable to opposing pass-catching backs than they are to the grinders. Of course, one of the grinders to destroy them this year was Derrick Henry. He went off for 188-2, while averaging over eight YPC. Henry will once again post one of the top two lines at the position, so start him despite the hefty price tag. Since they may be playing from behind, I could even see using Dion Lewis as a FLEX. I don’t think I will, but I can see the argument for it. Damien Williams is doing now, what everyone drafted him for in the second round at the start of the season. He should be RB2 on this slate, and I trust him more than Henry, because of possible game script. No other KC running back got a touch last week, so it is safe to ignore the lot of them.
Ryan Tannehill only completed seven total passes last week, and only three of those went to WRs. That said, the Ravens’ secondary is more intimidating than the Chiefs. I still don’t love A.J. Brown this week, but there isn’t a ton to choose from. Tajae Sharpe was a bust for me last week, I don’t trust him here either. Plus, Corey Davis has been a bust for the last three years. At least Kalif Raymond came through last week. If I need to play a different WR from this offense, it would likely be him, and then only as a punt WR3. I could also take a chance on Adam Humphries if he is cleared to play. He scored in their earlier meeting, and he is clearly the second-most talented WR on this roster when healthy. The Chiefs’ WRs suffered a case of the dropsies last week. Tyreek Hill finished last week with a disappointing line, but after watching Marquise Brown pick apart this defense, I am all-in once again. Sammy Watkins showed up for the first time in 16 weeks. At his price, you have to consider him a WR2/WR3 option. Just don’t expect a repeat performance. Demarcus Robinson was one of the key offenders in the drop-fest. We’ll see if Mahomes has a short memory, or if Robinson is written out of the game plan. I’m not going to risk it here. Mecole Hardman is the safer deep dive play, and I actually like him as a cheap way to get more exposure to this offense.
Jonnu Smith scored last week on a very impressive but improbable pass in the corner of the end zone. He actually has better odds of a score this week, as KC is much worse against the position than Baltimore was. At his reduced price, he makes a sneaky Double-TE play. As for the Chiefs, I screwed up by avoiding Travis Kelce’s bum knee last week. I’m not going to do that again. I actually prefer George Kittle’s matchup, but I will have exposure to Kelce as well. That would be another possible Double-TE play, but one where you would have to look for savings elsewhere. Anthony Firkser and Blake Bell have each scored over the last couple weeks, but don’t go there. With some huge talent available at the position, neither should be on any non-Showdown roster.
The Chiefs’ defense is a safe play, but an expensive one. Tennessee is a punt play at best, but I’d prefer to use Green Bay if I am punting.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers:
Aaron Rodgers outperformed my expectations last week. This matchup should be a lot tougher. The Niners got everyone healthy last week, and they held Kirk Cousins in check. This defense struggled some in the second half of the season as they battled through those injuries. With everyone healthy once again, this defense more resembles the one that held Rodgers to 119-1 in their earlier meeting. I have Rodgers ranked fourth out of the four QB options for the week. Just barely ranking higher is Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is the only QB since Week 8 to throw for more than one TD against Green Bay. He still is no better than option three this week though.
The Niners’ defense had struggled over the prior month, but the return of Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt really reinforced the center of their defense. They managed to hold Dalvin Cook in check. If this same defense shows up this week, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams will also struggle to find room to roam. Jones is always a threat to score, but at his price (and with Williams stealing touches), I just feel like he is a pass for me. I’ll pivot from Henry with Jones on a few lineups, but not enough to be significant. Williams might be a FLEX option since the Niners do give up a fair amount of receptions to the RB position. Everyone (including me) played Raheem Mostert last week. So, of course, the Niners used Tevin Coleman as their lead back. At this point, you really can’t trust either of them, because of hot-hand theory. That sucks because Green Bay isn’t very good against the run. They are particularly brutal in the red zone. At this point, the safest thing to do is set separate lineups with all of your other combos and then put one of them at FLEX in each lineup. That way, the only way you are screwed, is if they decide to feature Matt Breida this week. It should be noted, both Coleman and Mostert scored in Week 12. That could happen again.
Never doubt Davante Adams. San Francisco has given up some huge games to high-end WR1s. Adams was also absent in their earlier contest, so that may have hindered Rodgers’ numbers some. Even though I don’t trust Rodgers, I will have Adams alongside Tyreek Hill as the top WR1 option. Allen Lazard injured his ankle last week, and later returned but only as a decoy. I don’t think there will be enough passing stats to go around here, but you could do worse than Lazard at WR3. If Lazard misses this game due to the injury, then Geronimo Allison might get some of that second-fiddle love. Don’t stretch any deeper than that. Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel both had so-so games last week as the Niners just ran the ball down the Vikings’ throat. Each is back in play at WR2 this week, with a slight edge to Samuel who scored against Green Bay earlier this year. Kendrick Bourne remains a huge red zone threat. If you don’t use Samuel or Sanders, please consider Bourne at WR3.
San Fran is solid versus the TE position, but not elite. Still, you are not going to waste a spot rostering Jimmy Graham or any of the Packers’ backups. At best, you might be able to use Robert Tonyan on a Showdown lineup. George Kittle is one of many quality TEs to destroy Green Bay this year. He will do it again, and he really needs to find a way into your lineup.
Both defenses are strong plays. Green Bay’s pass rush paired with Garoppolo’s inexperience makes them a sure thing. That said, San Fran has been elite all year, and they will cause Rodgers to make some mistakes.
Here are my Full Slate recommended lineups.
At DK: $7.7K for Pat Mahomes. $15.7K total for Derrick Henry and Damien Williams. $7.9K Davante Adams. $7.1K total for Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman (or Geronimo Allison if Allen Lazard doesn’t play). $9.2K total for George Kittle and Jonnu Smith. $2.4K for the Packers’ defense.
At FD: $9.5K for Mahomes. $14.1K total for Tevin Coleman and Damien Williams. $17K total for Tyreek Hill, Lazard (or Allison), and Adam Humphries (or Kalif Raymond). $14.8K total for Kittle and Travis Kelce. $4K for the Packers’ defense
At Fanball SuperFlex: Mahomes, Henry, D. Williams, Adams, Hardman, Kendrick Bourne, Kittle, Humphries/Raymond and Ryan Tannehill.
At Fanball Classic: Mahomes, Henry, D. Williams, Deebo Samuel, Hardman, Humphries/Raymond, Kittle, Coleman, and the Packers’ defense.
At Fantasy Draft: Tannehill, D. Williams, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Adams, Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Jonnu, and the Packers’ defense.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $7,700 | $9,500 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $6,100 | $8,000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $5,500 | $7,700 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $5,200 | $7,600 |
Weekly strategy – Pat Mahomes is the obvious play here. Ryan Tannehill is the safest pivot. The only QB I am scared to use is Aaron Rodgers.
Pay to Play:
Pat Mahomes, Chiefs vs. TEN ($7700 DK, $9500 FD)
The Titans have stymied three quality QBs the last three weeks. Can they make it four in a row? In the earlier meeting, Pat Mahomes pimp-slapped Tennessee to the tune of 446-3. That was in his first game back from a major injury. Mahomes didn’t gain anything on the ground as the Chiefs didn’t want him running in his first game back. Obviously, last week proved that Mahomes is fully capable of doing damage on the ground when healthy. He isn’t going to post 143 yards on the ground like Lamar Jackson, but 300-3 through the air and another 30 or so on the ground, makes Mahomes the clear number one this week.
Stay Away:
Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ SF ($6100 DK, $8000 FD)
Aaron Rodgers didn’t have his one true weapon, Davante Adams, in their earlier contest against San Francisco. Still, only gaining 104 yards and one score on 20 completions is absurdly bad. The return of Adams should offer Rodgers the ability to double that earlier line, but it still will pale the other three QBs on this slate. Let it be known that I really like Adams however, so one stack of the two wouldn’t hurt in GPPs. That said, a safer stack might be Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel and bring it back with Adams.
Value Play:
Ryan Tannehill, Titans @ KC ($5500 DK, $7700 FD)
Ryan Tannehill hasn’t done much this postseason, because he hasn’t had to. Tennessee jumped out to leads and then just rode the coattails of Derrick Henry to victory. Against the Chiefs, Tannehill will actually have to use his arm to keep his team in the contest. In the end, I expect his numbers to be right around 275-2. Not great, but not awful, at this price. The TDs will likely go to A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith and each could be used in a stack. The Tannehill-Brown stack, in particular, could be valuable if you want to roster both George Kittle and Travis Kelce.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | $8,700 | $9,800 |
| Damien Williams | $7,000 | $7,600 |
| Aaron Jones | $6,700 | $7,800 |
| Tevin Coleman | $5,700 | $6,500 |
| Raheem Mostert | $4,300 | $5,800 |
| Jamaal Williams | $3,800 | $4,800 |
| LeSean McCoy | $3,600 | $4,900 |
| Matt Breida | $3,400 | $5,000 |
| Dion Lewis | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | $3,100 | $4,700 |
| Tyler Ervin | $3,000 | $4,700 |
Weekly strategy – On a short slate it is nearly impossible to fade Derrick Henry. That said, his price is high. Damien Williams should be 100% owned. The only reason to not own him is if you are trying to be different. There are better options for that strategy. The Niners twosome are the best pivots from Henry. Aaron Jones has a tough matchup and a high price, but he has been a TD machine. Jamaal Williams is the only legitimate punt option.
Pay to Play:
Derrick Henry, Titans @ KC ($8700 DK, $9800 FD)
Derrick Henry has three straight games with over 200 total yards. That is crazy. Somehow, his price hasn’t reached five-figures yet. It will be really hard to fade him, since he has slate-breaking potential. Really, the only way he doesn’t hit 2.5X, is if game script goes haywire. Even then, Tennessee may just keep giving him the rock even if they are down a bunch. Ultimately, you may end up choosing between using Henry or using both Kelce and Kittle, since fitting all three under the cap is virtually impossible.
Stay Away:
Aaron Jones, Packers @ SF ($6700 DK, $7800 FD)
Sure, Aaron Jones might score a TD or two here. He also is facing a defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last nine games. Plus, Jamaal Williams may see more run in this game in pass protection. Jones is really just a differentiation play this week. I’d rather differentiate at WR for less money.
Value Play:
Raheem Mostert, Niners vs. GB ($4300 DK, $5800 FD)
Everyone started Raheem Mostert last week, and everyone was pissed when Tevin Coleman led the team in touches, rushing yards, and when he scored twice. Raheem Mostert was still used, just not as much as Coleman. Some of that lack of usage can be attributed to a severe calf cramp Mostert suffered in the second half of the game. Assuming he is 100% for this game, the usage may be closer to a 50-50 split. If it is, Mostert will be a great bargain. Back in Week 12, both Coleman and Mostert scored. So, the potential points are there. If I don’t go Double-TE, Mostert will be a favorite of mine at FLEX.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $7,900 | $8,300 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,200 | $7,400 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,500 | $6,300 |
| A.J. Brown | $5,200 | $6,800 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $4,900 | $5,500 |
| Sammy Watkins | $4,600 | $5,200 |
| Allen Lazard | $4,400 | $5,100 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $4,200 | $5,400 |
| Corey Davis | $4,000 | $5,000 |
| Mecole Hardman | $3,800 | $4,900 |
| Geronimo Allison | $3,700 | $4,600 |
| M. Valdes-Scantling | $3,500 | $4,600 |
| Kalif Raymond | $3,400 | $4,500 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $3,300 | $4,700 |
| Jake Kumerow | $3,200 | $4,700 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $3,100 | $4,700 |
| Adam Humphries | $3,000 | $5,000 |
Weekly strategy – I plan to have one of Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill in all of my lineups. My WR3 will likely be the opposite target from who I choose at WR1 (Allen Lazard, Geronimo Allison, Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson). I have three players I Like at WR2: A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel and Sammy Watkins. Depending on what I spend elsewhere, I may be forced to spend down at WR2 and use either Tajae Sharpe, Kendrick Bourne, Adam Humphries or Kalif Raymond.
Pay to Play:
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. TEN ($7200 DK, $7400 FD)
I chose wrong last week, going overboard for Tyreek Hill, and over-fading Travis Kelce. This week, I will have a ton of exposure to both of them. True high-end WR1s have crushed Tennessee all season, including Tyreek Hill. Back in Week 10, Hill finished with 11-157-1. A similar line is possible here. Hill is slightly cheaper than Davante Adams but I will do my best to have one of them in each of my lineups at WR1. If I don’t use Hill, I will definitely use one of the other Chiefs’ WRs (Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson) as a WR2/WR3.
Stay Away:
Corey Davis, Titans @ KC ($4000 DK, $5000 FD)
I don’t hate any of the expensive options. I probably won’t use Emmanuel Sanders, but at least he has some upside. Corey Davis on the other hand has zero upside. Prior to last week’s explosion, only four secondary WRs have done anything significant against this defense, and only one of those four scored. Corey Davis has done nothing this year to suggest he will take advantage of a positive game script here. I actually feel better about playing Kalif Raymond, Tajae Sharpe or (if he returns) Adam Humphries.
Value Play:
A.J. Brown, Titans @ KC ($5200 DK, $6800 FD)
A.J. Brown has struggled the last couple weeks lined up against elite shutdown cornerbacks. That said, prior to the postseason, Brown was dominating the competition. Back in Week 10, Brown was held in check by HIS QB. Ryan Tannehill only attempted seven passes to his WRs, and only four to Brown. To stay in this game, Tannehill will have to air it out more often, that should mean a stronger line for Brown. He makes the safest WR2 on this slate and a reasonable pivot at WR1, if you want to save to pay for both Kittle and Kelce.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,100 | $7,800 |
| George Kittle | $5,800 | $7,000 |
| Jimmy Graham | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| Jonnu Smith | $3,400 | $5,600 |
| Blake Bell | $2,800 | $4,000 |
| Anthony Firkser | $2,500 | $4,500 |
| Robert Tonyan | $2,500 | $4,200 |
Weekly strategy – Simply put, get as much exposure to George Kittle and Travis Kelce as you can. It may be hard to roster both, but do at least attempt it. If you can’t afford both of them, I recommend going with Kittle possibly paired with Jonnu Smith.
Pay to Play:
George Kittle, Niners vs. GB ($5800 DK, $7000 FD)
There is no argument against using Travis Kelce here instead of George Kittle. Both have great matchups. Both will top 100 yards. Both will score at least once. The only reason I chose Kittle is that he is cheaper. Honestly, I will do everything in my power to roster both of them. I know that will be difficult, but on a short slate it makes sense. When you think about it, you are rostering one of them as a pivot from your WR2. This just means you have to go cheaper at that spot.
Stay Away:
Jimmy Graham, Packers @ SF ($3700 DK, $5300 FD)
The 49ers have given up a fair share of receptions and a few TDs to the TE position over the second half of the season. Still, that has come against a who’s who of premium tight ends. Jimmy Graham used to be in that conversation. Now he is no better than option-three on the offense that should have the most trouble scoring this week. Graham might post 4-45, but that won’t cut it on this slate.
Value Play:
Jonnu Smith, Titans @ KC ($3400 DK, $5600 FD)
If you do find yourself wanting to go cheap at TE (i.e. you roster both Tyreek and Davante at WR), Jonnu Smith is the answer. Smith made a ridiculous catch for a score last week. He still remains mostly TD-dependent, but KC has allowed tight end scores in five of their last nine games. In one of those games, backup TE, Anthony Firkser got into the end zone, but in that same game Smith had more targets and receptions.
Things get a little tougher this week as we have a few better offenses included in the player pool. It is further opened wide by multiple “underdogs” sneaking into round two. So, make sure that you, and your life-partner and the family dog are all max invested this week to cover all the possibilities. Or, you could just take our lineup advice and enter a few smaller pool tourneys and not have to worry about max entrants. Either way, always remember that goal number one is profit, goal number two is profit and goal number three is profit. The ‘ship is probably goal number nine or ten down the list.
Things get a little tougher this week as we have a few better offenses included in the player pool. It is further opened wide by multiple “underdogs” sneaking into round two. So, make sure that you, and your life-partner and the family dog are all max invested this week to cover all the possibilities. Or, you could just take our lineup advice and enter a few smaller pool tourneys and not have to worry about max entrants. Either way, always remember that goal number one is profit, goal number two is profit and goal number three is profit. The ‘ship is probably goal number nine or ten down the list.
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers defense has slipped of late allowing 18 total TDs and only one interception versus opposing QBs over their last seven games. The Niners did have an extra week to get healthy and Kyle Shanahan has an intimate knowledge of Kirk Cousins’ repertoire. Of course, Vikings Asst. Coach, Gary Kubiak has an intimate knowledge of Kyle Shanahan. All that said, Cousins is certainly in play this week, and I would argue that he is QB2 on the Saturday-Only slate. Overall, he may be as low as QB5 or QB6 though. Downgrade his numbers if Stefon Diggs (illness) or Adam Thielen (ankle) miss this game. If both play, Cousins should be safe for 280-2 as a floor. Jimmy Garoppolo gets to face a Vikings’ pass defense that will be without its CB3 and CB4. Unfortunately, he is facing two of the best linebackers in the league and two very good safeties. When your favorite target is your TE, and you are facing a defense that allows a fair amount of receptions to the position, but no scores; you need to be comfortable throwing to other people in the red zone. Still, the Vikes have allowed one or zero passing TDs in eight of their last ten games. So, Garoppolo has a ceiling of 280-2, even with the DB injuries.
San Fran will try to win this game on the back of their defense and running backs. Tevin Coleman has done nothing the last five weeks, and he is truly TD-dependent. I’m not going there. Raheem Mostert has been the better play and he has also scored at least once in six straight games. At his price, he should be at worst the Saturday-Only FLEX. I could even see starting him over Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook. He is also a strong play on the main slate, since his price will be cheaper than many. Speaking of Cook, based on talent alone, he needs to be RB2 on Saturday-Only. That said, the road will be tougher for him since San Francisco expects to get back Jaquiski Tartt, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander. I’m still planning on playing him unless Mark Ingram is ruled out for his game. Then, I would pivot to Gus Edwards or Justice Hill. Leave the Vikings’ backups on the bench, they don’t touch the ball enough.
Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are both dealing with health issues this week, but both expect to play. They are both legit WR2 options on the main slate and each is a good WR1 on the Saturday-Only slate. San Francisco has struggled with both WR1s and WR2 recently. I actually feel stronger about Stefon Diggs this week, he should top 100 yards and score. Thielen will finish with about 7-70, but the score isn’t as secure. I’m not super-pumped for any of the Vikings’ backup WRs this week, but for depth purposes, it should be noted that Alexander Hollins was active last week, while Laquan Treadwell was a healthy scratch. Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuels are both WR2 options on the Saturday-Only slate, but I feel better about Sanders on the main slate. I still wouldn’t use either of them as more than a WR3 on the main. Kendrick Bourne is always a TD-dependent punt play, and with holes on the Vikings’ backend, he may be a sneaky play.
The return of Tartt, takes some of the shine away from Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph. I’m not trusting Smith here, and with better TEs on the docket I’m only going to use Rudolph as a punt play. George Kittle on the other hand faces a defense that gives up lots of receptions and yards to the position, but that tightens up in the red zone. I still think based on volume alone Kitttle posts 7-70-1. That will be good enough for TE1 or TE2 on Saturday-Only, and no worse than TE3 overall.
Either defense is in play on either slate, but both pale behind Baltimore. Use one of them to save money here.
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Ryan Tannehill was fortunate to survive New England. Of course, he had very little to do with the victory. Things won’t be any easier this week. Only someone, and their significant other, with 300 total lineups will have any investment here. Lamar Jackson is pricy this week. He is also the safest play at a guaranteed 30 fantasy points. Jackson’s value will shoot up even more if Mark Ingram misses this game. I’m not sure I can feel comfortable fading him on either slate, but I will occasionally do so for variance.
Derrick Henry is on an absurd pace. I would not blame you for starting him this week despite the less-than-favorable matchup. On Saturday-Only, you have to play him, or Cook, or both of them. On the main slate, I am likely fading him due to his salary. As for Dion Lewis, he had his chance last week in the revenge game and did squat. That is all you need to know. Mark Ingram still isn’t practicing and his status is slowly drifting downward. If he goes, he would be a solid pivot from Cook or Henry (although I prefer Mostert), but I’m not going to trust him on the full slate. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill would each be gorgeous plays if Ingram is out. That said, if Ingram plays, then they should be on the bench.
Adam Humphries is expected to miss this game. It is too bad, since slot WRs have been the only bright spot against this pass defense. By process of elimination, that suggests that Tajae Sharpe would be the wise play here. He should get some WR3 love on the Saturday-Only slate and be considered as a punt WR3 on the main slate. A.J. Brown is a great young WR. I’m just not paying the price to roster him this week. Corey Davis is dead to me and most of the world. As for Baltimore, they also have a rookie WR named Brown. Marquise has a better matchup, but he has been very hit-or-miss all season. I don’t mind him as WR3 on either slate. Most of the passing game damage against Tennessee has come at the hands of WR1s, and particularly speedy ones. This suggests Marquise Brown may be an even better play then I am suggesting. That also means that the rest of the Ravens’ WRs can remain on the bench.
The Ravens have stifled every TE they have faced since Week 5. I’m doubting that Jonnu Smith or Anthony Firkser is going to change that trend. Meanwhile, Tennessee has been rotten against every capable TE they have faced. Mark Andrews definitely qualifies in that discussion. He is actually a higher upside play at TE1 than George Kittle on the Saturday slate. Both Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst could also be used (only on DK) as punt plays. Andrews also should be in consideration as TE2 or TE3 on the main slate. I would even consider playing him at FLEX in a Double-TE.
The price difference between the Ravens’ defense and the other options is small enough that you should just roster Baltimore. If you don’t need to punt and save money just use them. Tennessee has a defense that would be in play if they were facing a different team. This week, using them is suicide
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Deshaun Watson carried his team to victory last week. He also led his team to a victory Week 6 against this same Chiefs’ defense. In that game, he scored three TDs including two on the ground. A similar line is possible here. I like him as QB2 or QB3 on the Sunday-only slate, and he is a decent pivot play on the full slate. Pat Mahomes should have little trouble equaling or besting his earlier line of 273-3. I’ll use him as my primary QB1 on Sunday, and he should be at worst QB2 overall.
Carlos Hyde was one of the last RBs to post a strong line against the Chiefs. He should have a good game again, but he is still no better than RB3 on Sunday-only. This means he should be no better than a FLEX play on the main. Duke Johnson outplayed Hyde last week. He is definitely a FLEX option on Sunday-only but I am not likely to use him on the main. Damien Williams has returned as the lead back for Kansas City. Houston has been miserable when attempting to stop opposing RBs. Put these two items together, and you have the recipe for Williams having a monster game. He is no worse than RB2 on Sunday and no worse than RB4 overall. The other RBs are not getting enough looks to be used this week. I suppose you could try LeSean McCoy in a Showdown slate but that is about it.
Will Fuller is supposed to return this week from his groin injury. The team could certainly use him. His presence on the field makes the team nearly impossible to stop on offense. Unfortunately, a groin injury could knock him out of the game at any point. I don’t know if I trust him as more than a WR3 on the Sunday slate. If he does play, I will bump DeAndre Hopkins up in value. Hopkins may still be only my WR3 on Sunday, but he is a great WR1 play on either slate. Kenny Stills loses some value if Fuller plays, but he is still a possible WR3. If Fuller is out, Stills becomes a very strong WR3. Tyreek Hill needs to be in your lineup as he is primed for a huge game. He is my favorite WR1 option on either slate. Sammy Watkins has done nothing since Week 1, so leave him on the bench. If you want additional exposure to this passing game, I recommend going with Demarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardman.
Darren Fells paid off as a punt play last week. I like him this week too. KC has allowed five or more TE receptions 13 times this season. Back in Week 6, Fells and Jordan Akins combined for 9-108 against them. Akins is battling a hamstring g injury (he missed last week) and third-stringer, Jordan Thomas has done little since returning from the IR. This could set up for a large output for Fells, especially if Akins misses this game too. It should be pretty obvious that Travis Kelce is a solid play this week. Houston held him in check in their earlier meeting, but since then their TE defense has gone pear-shaped fast. I could easily see using both Kelce as part of a double-TE lineup on either slate.
I’m not high on either of these defenses for the main slate, but I could see trying the Chiefs on Sunday-only. There really isn’t an obvious Sunday only play, so they are just as likely to pay off.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Russell Wilson advanced by throwing for 325-1 against a soft Eagles’ defense. This game has more shootout potential, but Green Bay has been playing tighter defense in the second half of the season. I wouldn’t count on more than 275-2, unless this game really devolves. Aaron Rodgers has not been himself this season. Since Week 8, he has more than one touchdown pass only twice. This does not bode well for this game since Seattle has held 11 of their last 14 opponents to one TD pass or less. Again, unless this game turns into a pinball contest, I can’t confidently call for more than 275-1 for Rodgers.
The points in this game are more likely to come from the RB position. Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer are both in play as pivots at RB2 or FLEX on Sunday-only. I also like Lynch as a FLEX on the main slate, since the team has vowed to up his usage. Green Bay has been pretty bad against the run all season, and lately they have struggled with pass-catching backs (which is why Homer is also in play). Seattle on the other hand, has really been bad against the run. Eight times this year Seattle has allowed multiple RB scores in one game. This includes four of their last contests. This is why Aaron Jones should be your RB1 on Sunday-only (paired with Damien Williams). I also want him in multiple full slate lineups (mixed and matched with Dalvin Cook, Williams, and Derrick Henry). This defense is even bad enough to consider using Jamaal Williams on the Sunday-only slate at FLEX if you need to save some money.
DK Metcalf has passed Tyler Lockett on the depth chart for Seattle. He has the best shot at a score between the two this week. Green Bay has struggled more with big outside receivers like Metcalf, than they have with speed receivers like Lockett. Tyler should still post a solid PPR game, but at virtually the same price, I’ll have more exposure to Metcalf. Neither should be more than WR2 options on either slate. I also like David Moore as a cheap punt play, but I’m not going to call a TD for him. I wouldn’t go deeper on their depth chart, unless you are looking for a cheap punt showdown option. Premium WR1s have succeeded against Seattle, so Davante Adams is definitely an option at WR1 on either slate. That said, I still have him behind Hopkins and Hill on the Sunday-only. I doubt Rodgers will throw more than two TDs, so Adams is truly the only reliable WR option for the Pack. I could see playing Allen Lazard as a punt WR3 on Sunday-only, but there are more reliable options available there. One of those more reliable options could even be his teammate, Geronimo Allison. Seattle has struggled all season with slot receivers.
Tight end could be an interesting position in this game. Both defenses are absurdly bad against the position. Obviously, Travis Kelce is TE1 on Sunday. That said, I could make a strong case for pivoting from him with Darren Fells, Jacob Hollister or Jimmy Graham. That is why I may visit double-TE land on Sunday. Seattle is so bad against the position, that I could even see the argument for punting with Robert Tonyan.
Both of these teams could be used for Sunday-only defense, but I don’t love either. I doubt I would consider using either on the full slate.
Here are my Full-Slate recommended lineups.
At DK: $7.5K for Pat Mahomes. $12.2K total for Aaron Jones and Marshawn Lynch. $15K total for DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill. $4.4K for Marquise Brown. $7.3K total for Jacob Hollister and Jimmy Graham. $3.6K for the Ravens defense.
At FD: $8.6K for Mahomes. $15.1K total for Jones and Damien Williams. $21.3K total for Hopkins, Hill, and Marquise. $5K for Graham. $6K for Lynch at FLEX. $3.7K for the Vikings defense.
At Fanball SuperFlex: Mahomes, Dalvin Cook, Jones, Hill, Tajae Sharpe, Hollister, Graham, D. Williams and Lamar Jackson.
At Fanball Classic: L. Jackson, A. Jones, D. Williams, Hill, M. Brown, Graham, Mark Andrews, Lynch, and the Vikings defense.
At Fantasy Draft: L. Jackson, D. Williams, Derrick Henry, M. Brown, DK Metcalf, Graham, A. Jones, Lynch, and the Vikings defense.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,400 | $9,400 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $7,500 | $8,600 |
| Deshaun Watson | $6,700 | $8,300 |
| Russell Wilson | $6,600 | $7,900 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $6,500 | $8,100 |
| Kirk Cousins | $5,700 | $7,600 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $5,600 | $7,800 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $5,400 | $7,800 |
Weekly strategy – I expect to use Lamar Jackson or Pat Mahomes in most of my lineups. I will also have some exposure to Deshaun Watson. Everyone else has a fair amount of risk, so I will have only minimal exposure to anyone else.
Pay to Play:
Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. TEN ($8400 DK, $9400 FD)
Tennessee has been middle-of-the-road in terms of points allowed to QBs, but they really haven’t faced a QB with Lamar Jackson’s rushing acumen. Even when he underperforms, Jackson has a floor of 25 points. This week he will hit 3x easily, and if Mark Ingram cannot go, he may approach 4X.
Stay Away:
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. SEA ($6500 DK, $8100 FD)
This game could turn into a shootout, putting Aaron Rodgers into play. More likely, we see the slumping Rodgers top out at 275-2. That isn’t horrible, but his price is high enough, that I would rather roster Deshaun Watson or Pat Mahomes for a similar cost. The Seahawks don’t allow many scores to the position and Rodgers has struggled to top one passing TD recently as well. If there is a ton of scoring in this game, it will come on the ground, since both of these defenses suck mightily against the run.
Value Play:
Kirk Cousins, Vikings @ SF ($5700 DK, $7600 FD)
There really isn’t a value play I love this week. You could take a shot on Russell Wilson, but as I mention above the scoring in that game will likely come from the RBs. Kirk Cousins at least has some upside going against a defense that will have a few returning faces that may need to shake off some rust. Plus, he has two legit WR1 targets and an elite pass-catching RB to throw to. I won’t have a ton of exposure to him, but he could be an interesting Superflex QB2, if you want to differentiate from the chalk play of both Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | $8,200 | $9,600 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,000 | $8,000 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,400 | $8,200 |
| Mark Ingram II | $6,700 | $7,500 |
| Damien Williams | $6,000 | $6,900 |
| Raheem Mostert | $5,800 | $6,700 |
| Travis Homer | $5,100 | $5,500 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,000 | $6,400 |
| Gus Edwards | $4,900 | $5,400 |
| Marshawn Lynch | $4,800 | $6,000 |
| Duke Johnson | $4,700 | $5,600 |
| Jamaal Williams | $4,600 | $5,100 |
| LeSean McCoy | $4,400 | $5,200 |
| Alexander Mattison | $4,100 | $5,300 |
| Justice Hill | $3,900 | $4,800 |
| Dion Lewis | $3,700 | $4,800 |
| Tevin Coleman | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| Darwin Thompson | $3,400 | $4,900 |
| Matt Breida | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| Darrel Williams | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | $3,000 | $4,600 |
Weekly strategy – My favorite four players this week are: Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Damien Williams and Raheem Mostert. Most of my lineups will feature two of them. I may also use Derrick Henry, but his salary is higher than I like. My pivots would be Marshawn Lynch or Carlos Hyde, and I may also use Gus Edwards if Mark Ingram misses the game. I could also use one of those three at FLEX. In addition, if Ingram is out, Justice Hill could be a decent punt play. The other punt options I like are: Jamaal Williams, Duke Johnson and Travis Homer. All of this said, I’m torn between using three running backs this week, and two running backs and two TEs. It may come down to money.
Pay to Play:
Aaron Jones, Packers vs. SEA ($7400 DK, $8200 FD)
Seattle has only allowed nine RB touchdowns over the last six games. Plus, they are giving up 160 combo yards per game over that span. A returning Jamaal Williams may steal a few looks, but Aaron Jones will still top 125-1.
Stay Away:
Derrick Henry, Titans @ BAL ($8200 DK, $9600 FD)
I apparently didn’t learn my lesson, benching Derrick Henry last week. I’m accepting of the fact that Henry has been psycho-good lately, still the matchup on paper just isn’t great. Baltimore gave up four RB touchdowns to the Browns in Week 4, outside of that they have allowed only eight other RB scores all year. Based on how hot he is, Henry will probably still post 125-1 here. That isn’t horrible at his DK price, but the FD price is way too high. Also, know that I will still use Henry as one of my top three RB choices on the Saturday-only slate.
Value Play:
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks @ GB ($4800 DK, $6000 FD)
Seattle has stated that they intend to get Marshawn Lynch more involved in their game script. They shouldn’t have much trouble achieving that plan against the Packers’ run defense. The Packers are allowing just under 150 combo yards per game for the season, and only one team has been held below 100 total RB yards. Marshawn Lynch may lose some receptions to Travis Homer, but don’t be surprised if Lynch is used in the passing game too. Frankly, the Packers won’t be able to stop either of them.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $7,800 | $8,400 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,600 | $7,900 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,400 | $8,100 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,800 | $7,000 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,600 | $6,700 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,200 | $6,900 |
| A.J. Brown | $6,000 | $7,400 |
| Stefon Diggs | $5,600 | $6,800 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,400 | $5,700 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,200 | $6,100 |
| Will Fuller V | $5,000 | $5,600 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,800 | $5,700 |
| Allen Lazard | $4,500 | $5,400 |
| Marquise Brown | $4,400 | $5,300 |
| Sammy Watkins | $4,300 | $5,200 |
| Mecole Hardman | $4,100 | $5,300 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $4,000 | $4,900 |
| David Moore | $3,900 | $5,100 |
| Willie Snead IV | $3,800 | $4,500 |
| Corey Davis | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Geronimo Allison | $3,600 | $4,600 |
| Seth Roberts | $3,500 | $4,900 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $3,500 | $4,900 |
| Keke Coutee | $3,300 | $4,500 |
| Olabisi Johnson | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| DeAndre Carter | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Jake Kumerow | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Malik Turner | $3,200 | $4,700 |
| Jaron Brown | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Kalif Raymond | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| M. Valdes-Scantling | $3,000 | $4,600 |
Weekly strategy – I hope to fit two of: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins into all of my lineups. If I need to shave a few bucks, I may pivot to DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs or Marquise Brown at WR2. I may also try to stuff one of that threesome at WR3. My other WR3 choices will include: the Houston and Kansas City backups, Tajae Sharpe, Geronimo Allison and David Moore. They are all pretty cheap, so going that route at WR3, should open up some more money for TE.
Pay to Play:
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. HOU ($7600 DK, $7900 FD)
In Week 6, Tyreek Hill torched this defense for 5-80-2. In that game, Hill was without his top running mate, Sammy Watkins. Watkins is back to open up the defense, and both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson are healthy too. With all these weapons available, Houston is woefully understaffed to stop this offense. Hill is the best of those weapons, so a similar line is certainly in play. That said, I expect him to easily exceed that line as he scores on a pair of deep bombs.
Stay Away:
A.J. Brown, Titans @ BAL ($6000 DK, $7400 FD)
A.J. Brown got a taste of reality last week facing an elite shut down cornerback. He caught one measly pass for four yards. It doesn’t get any easier this week as Baltimore has allowed only three WR1s to score this year. Tennessee will be playing from behind, so he may nab some garbage-time value. That said, Baltimore has struggled more with slot receivers, so Tajae Sharpe is the safer play in this game.
Value Play:
Marquise Brown, Ravens vs. TEN ($4400 DK, $5300 FD)
Marquise Brown has been hit-or-miss all year, but his speed puts him in play this week. Tennessee has struggled against both strong, tall outside WRs and super-speedy guys. Brown is neither strong nor tall, but he is very fast. Bump Brown’s value up even more if Mark Andrews is out or limited coming into the game.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $6,400 | $7,500 |
| George Kittle | $6,200 | $7,400 |
| Mark Andrews | $5,600 | $6,800 |
| Jacob Hollister | $4,000 | $5,700 |
| Darren Fells | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| Hayden Hurst | $3,400 | $4,700 |
| Jonnu Smith | $3,400 | $5,300 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $3,400 | $5,400 |
| Jimmy Graham | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| Nick Boyle | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Jordan Akins | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $2,600 | $5,100 |
| Anthony Firkser | $2,500 | $4,500 |
| Robert Tonyan | $2,500 | $4,200 |
Weekly strategy – Each of the top three options is nice. I could easily see paying up for Travis Kelce, George Kittle or Mark Andrews. None is overly priced and they all have solid matchups. That said, the matchups for the next two options, Darren Fells and Jacob Hollister are also nice. Either would make a fine pivot, or better yet, either would make a great Double-TE. If Mark Andrews misses this game due to his injury, either Nick Boyle or Hayden Hurst would make a nice punt. I really like Jimmy Graham’s matchup against the Seahawks. At that price, I can use him in the Double-TE as well. I’m just concerned about his intermittent usage this year. A deep punt dive would be to fade Graham and start Robert Tonyan.
Pay to Play:
Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. HOU ($6400 DK, $7500 FD)
Travis Kelce is nursing a knee issue, but he is expected to play this week. In their earlier meeting, Kelce was held to just 4-58. Since that week, Houston has been gored by every decent TE they have faced. As long as his knee holds up, Kelce should post a floor of 7-80-1. That said, if the knee becomes worrisome, there are many potential pivots.
Stay Away:
Jonnu Smith, Titans @ BAL ($3400 DK, $5300 FD)
With so many values at the top of the TE list this week, we have to dip all the way to Jonnu Smith to find a TE that I want to fade. Baltimore has allowed only three tight ends to score all season and only Travis Kelce and Ricky Seals-Jones have topped 40 receiving yards. Since Week 5, they are allowing an average of only 3-27 to the position. Jonnu has been held to just two total catches the last two weeks. Plus, Anthony Firkser is always a threat to vulture a potential Jonnu score. This week just say Jon-no.
Value Play:
Darren Fells, Texans @ KC ($3500 DK, $5200 FD)
Darren Fells had a useful Wildcard game. He was used even more than I expected as Deshaun Watson looked his way regularly to move the sticks. Back in Week 6, Fells combined with Jordan Akins to post 9-108 against the Chiefs. Akins missed last week with a hamstring issue, and his status for this week is bordering on doubtful. If Akins misses this game, Fells could post another solid line. Plus, he is always a threat in the red zone.
This is shaping up as a mildly confusing Wildcard Weekend. I’ve never seen a lineup of games where they all could finish above 50 total points or under 30. Hopefully, we can mill the wheat from the chaff for you and help you make some money to pay off all those holiday bills.
This is shaping up as a mildly confusing Wildcard Weekend. I’ve never seen a lineup of games where they all could finish above 50 total points or under 30. Hopefully, we can mill the wheat from the chaff for you and help you make some money to pay off all those holiday bills.
Saturday-Only Slate:
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans:
Josh Allen has arguably the best matchup of any QB this week. He also is green. I still expect him to account for three total scores. Deshaun Watson faces a very tough Bills’ secondary, but he still should net a pair of scores. The best sign for Watson would be if he could steal a rushing score. Speaking of rushing scores, Devin Singletary makes a Saturday-Only slate must start against a bad Houston run defense. He is also in play as a pivot on the main slate. I don’t love Carlos Hyde here. He may score on a short plunge, but don’t count on sizeable yardage. Duke Johnson has a better matchup since Buffalo has given up a ton of receptions to the RB position. John Brown and Cole Beasley are both elite-level plays this week. Brown is a nice WR1 pivot and Beasley is a must-start at WR2. If you go cheap at RB (and pay up for Michael Thomas), you might look to fit both of them in at WR2/WR3. Isaiah McKenzie and Duke Williams are dart throws at best. I actually like Robert Foster, but he did jack squat last week, so I am not trusting him here. DeAndre Hopkins has a rough matchup, but based on volume alone, he is a possible WR1 pivot. I’d like to know that both Will Fuller and Kenny Stills were healthy. Both being on the field would eat into each other’s stats, but either would open up more room for Hopkins to operate. I don’t think we can trust Fuller’s groin to last all game. If I choose one of them, it would likely be Stills. DeAndre Carter and Keke Coutee are just depth at this point. That said, if both Stills and Fuller miss this game, I might consider Carter as a punt. Dawson Knox is a nice cheap punt TE play this week, against a Houston defense that has struggled since Week 5 at covering the position. Darren Fells is also a sneaky TD-dependent punt TE play this week since Buffalo has allowed four TE scores over the last five games. I’d consider either defense as a cost-savings play, but I am not going out of my way to play either of them.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots:
Ryan Tannehill has had a fun season reigniting his career flame. Unfortunately, that flame is about to be snuffed. When the team falls behind, he may rack up two scores in garbage time. Still, I am not trusting him against this defense. Further, I am mildly disgusted that his salary is higher than Tom Brady’s in this game. Brady is my favorite QB play of the week. Tennessee has allowed way too many passing scores this year, and Brady is in his element come playoff season. At this price, I’ll be happy when Brady throws 300-2 as a floor. Derrick Henry has also had a remarkable season. That said, his price is finally high enough that I cannot reliably roll him out there. Especially since I expect game script to work against him. New England can be beat on the ground, and I expect Henry to still post a solid line. I just don’t think he will go off here. Dion Lewis could also come into play since this is a revenge game for him. I’m not going to use him in the main slate, but he could be a cheap Showdown option. Much like Brady, James White wakes up come January. I love him this week. He is RB2/3 on the Saturday-Only slate and RB5 at worst overall. Sony Michel is a nice pivot at FLEX based on potential volume and Rex Burkhead could be a sneaky TD-dependent punt. You’ll notice a trend here, A.J. Brown has also had an amazing season. He also hasn’t faced Stephon Gilmore. I am not trusting a rookie in this big spot against him. Especially, since Brown’s price tag is finally in alignment with his talent level. Corey Davis just sucks, but he has actually eaten versus New England recently. I am by no means confident to start him, but he might be an option at WR3 on Saturday-Only GPP contests. Tajae Sharpe is a fun name, and he might be useful in reality football, but he is nothing special in fantasy. Julian Edelman is a great play on either slate, despite not being anywhere near 100%. I also like both Mohamed Sanu and N’Keal Harry as possible WR3 options. I’d also consider Jakobi Meyers, but I have less faith in him. Jonnu Smith is a potential pivot play on DK, but his FD price is too high in comparison to the other options. Of course, he also has the highest upside of anyone on the Saturday-Only slate. Tennessee is bad against TEs, so consider Ben Watson. Just don’t consider it too much. The Patriots’ defense is the best option and their price is not absurd. Just use them. Do not use the Titans’ defense, there are better cheap options if you go that route.
Sunday-Only Slate:
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints:
Kirk Cousins is getting no respect in this game. However, if Drew Brees does lead the Saints to an early lead, Cousins will have to throw it a ton to keep up. New Orleans has a nice pair of cornerbacks to help frustrate Captain Kirk, but their defense has actually given up several passing TDs over the second half of the season. In comparison, the Vikings’ secondary feels as if it has fallen apart, but they have allowed one or fewer passing TDs in seven of their last nine games. What I’m hinting at here, is that this game could be a shootout for the QBs or it could be a grind-it-out ground-heavy game. I’ll have some exposure to both QBs here, but I am by no means going all-in on them. Speaking of that ground game, both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison should be back healthy for this contest. Neither will have much success running the ball up the middle against New Orleans. That said, the Saints have allowed four RB rushing scores over their last six games, so a TD is in play. In addition, the Saints have been very beatable by pass-catching backs. There is little doubt the Vikings will use Dalvin Cook extensively in the passing game. This should put Cook into RB1/RB2 consideration on both the Sunday-Only and overall slates. Mattison will see enough action to be a possible Sunday-Only FLEX, but I’m not going out of my way to start him. Don’t even consider Ameer Abdullah or last week’s hero Mike Boone. If you want to get cute in a Showdown slate, consider C.J. Ham who may also see some passing game action. Both Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray (in a revenge game) make great plays for the Saints. The Vikings’ run defense has looked like crap the last two weeks, but they have been besieged by injuries to key contributors and last week other starters didn’t even play. All of the Vikings’ defensive starters should be back for this game, but Kamara and Murray are still in for a great combined game. The Vikings have also been very giving to opposing pass-catching backs recently. That is Kamara’s game. I’m just going to eat the chalk here and play both Cook and Kamara in most of my lineups. If I need to save money, I’ll consider subbing in Murray for Kamara. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs will tangle with Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins. Both corners are very good, both receivers are very good. This will be a fun matchup. I think both produce ok lines, but neither produces enough to justify their prices. If I had to choose a WR to start here for Minnesota, it would probably be Olabisi Johnson for basically free at WR3. Good luck fitting Michael Thomas’ salary under the cap. He will score his typical 25 points, making him a very solid WR1 play. Still, that doesn’t guarantee 3X. I’m also slightly concerned that Minnesota goes out of their way to shutdown Thomas. It won’t matter, you Can’t Guard Mike. Even if he is double-bracketed, Thomas will finish with 10-100. The coverage may keep him out of the end zone though. Ted Ginn has had his way with Minnesota in the past. He always seems to post a few long catches. That said, amazingly, he has never scored a TD against them. I feel that changes this week. I like Ginn to finish with 3-65-1, and he makes a great WR3. He also offers exposure to the Saints’ offense, without paying up for Thomas. Tre’Quan Smith has been more involved in the passing game recently, but I’m not going to be reaching for him here since he is truly TD-dependent. At best, he is a deep punt WR3 or a Showdown slate cheap alternate. Irv Smith is not used as much in the Vikings’ passing game when Adam Thielen is back out there. I’m not going to use him much this week. Kyle Rudolph, on the other hand, is a huge red zone threat, and New Orleans has been Cardinal-esque recently against TEs. It’s a great matchup for him, but he is still only TE3 on the Sunday-Only slate. I can only see using him as a pivot from Jared Cook or Dallas Goedert. Speaking of Cook, he is a TD-scoring machine right now. At his price, I’d rather roster him than Thomas. Minnesota gives up a fair amount of yards to the position, but they have only allowed one TE score on the year. That figure will at least be matched here. Also be aware that at FD, you can use Taysom Hill at TE. Hill only qualifies at QB on DK however. Minnesota’s defense is priced super cheap, but unless you are paying up for New England, you might as well use Minnesota, since none of the other defenses scream, “play me”. The Saints’ defense could also be used, but they are a little more expensive, and just as likely to do little.
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles:
The much-maligned Eagles’ secondary has played better of late. They even held Russell Wilson in check back in Week 12. I’m not sure they have totally turned the corner though. That said, they still have some major holes in the defensive backfield. I expect this to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend, so I will definitely have some exposure to Wilson. Seattle’s pass defense is also suspect, but they haven’t given up as many passing TDs. Carson Wentz’ biggest issue has been a lack of weapons. He won’t get any of them back this week, and he will likely be without Zach Ertz as well. Still, Wentz has made do nicely with the crumbs he has left. I have zero issue with starting him here. Both Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer will split the carries this week. Lynch will obviously get the goal-line work, making him more valuable. Still, Philly is elite against the run. So, you are hoping for a TD at best from this pair. Miles Sanders may be a game-time decision. If he can play, it is a great matchup as Seattle is rotten against the run. I love Sanders as a dynasty asset, but part of me is hoping that he sits this one out. If so, then I can play Boston Scott or Jordan Howard for a lot cheaper and watch them torch this defense. If Sanders does play, the three-headed committee will eat into some of the potential value, but it is still a great option to roll him out. Only a couple WR1s have succeeded recently against Philly. Even Tyler Lockett struggled in their earlier meeting. Lockett is still a safe WR1 pivot, but I actually prefer DK Metcalf. Secondary WRs have had much more success against this defense of late. I also could see using either David Moore or Malik Turner (if he plays) as punt WR3 plays. Greg Ward had a solid line against Seattle in their earlier meeting, but Seattle has not given up a ton of WR receptions. I’ll still use Ward, since he is cheap and one of a couple healthy targets for Carson Wentz. Based on volume alone, he should be a solid WR3. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Deontay Burnett are both dirt cheap and could be sneaky punt WR3 plays. The Eagles have shutdown basically every TE they have faced, so leave Jacob Hollister on your bench. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have adopted the Arizona Cardinals’ philosophy on covering TEs (or lack thereof). Zach Ertz wants to play, but he suffers the same “flesh wounds” as Monty Python’s Black Knight. If he does suit them up, he will likely be a decoy. That said, even as a decoy, he may score against this defense. One guy who will definitely score against this defense is Dallas Goedert. His floor is 8-100-1 this week. If Ertz sits this out, that line could legitimately be double that. Neither of these defenses should be anywhere near your lineup this week.
Here are my Full Slate recommended lineups.
At DK: $5.8K for Tom Brady, $15.2K total for Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara, $14.7K total for Greg Ward, Mohamed Sanu, and Cole Beasley, $5.2K for Dallas Goedert, $5.7K for James White at FLEX, and $3.4K for the Patriots defense.
At FD: $8.5K for Drew Brees, $16.2K total for Cook and Kamara, $18.1K total for Ward, DK Metcalf, and Beasley, $6.7K for Goedert, $6.2K for White at FLEX, and $3.9K for the Vikings defense.
At Fanball SuperFlex: Brady, Cook, Kamara, Julian Edelman, Beasley, Ward, Goedert, White and Josh Allen.
At Fanball Classic: Brady, Cook, Kamara, Edelman, Beasley, Kyle Rudolph, Goedert, White, Patriots Defense.
At Fantasy Draft: Brady, Cook, Kamara, Beasley, Ward, Goedert, Devin Singletary, White and the Patriots Defense.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | $6,800 | $7,900 |
| Drew Brees | $6,600 | $8,500 |
| Josh Allen | $6,500 | $7,800 |
| Deshaun Watson | $6,400 | $8,100 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,300 | $7,800 |
| Carson Wentz | $6,200 | $7,900 |
| Kirk Cousins | $6,100 | $7,600 |
| Tom Brady | $5,800 | $7,600 |
| Taysom Hill | $4,500 | XXXX |
Weekly strategy – Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Josh Allen are the safest three options. I will have some exposure to each of them. That said, Tom Brady at home will be my first choice. I could also use Kirk Cousins or Carson Wentz to save money, but both have risks. Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill are the two I want to avoid.
Pay to Play:
Josh Allen, Bills @ HOU ($6500 DK, $7800 FD)
Based solely on matchup, Josh Allen is the safest QB play of the week. In seven of their last twelve contests, Houston has given up three or more passing TDs. They have also given up three QB rushing scores over that span. Allen will throw for at least two scores in this contest and he will rush for another. That should easily return for you 3x.
Stay Away:
Ryan Tannehill, Titans @ NE ($6300 DK, $7800 FD)
It has been a great story what Ryan Tannehill has done this season since taking over for Marcus Mariota. Unfortunately, the clock is about to strike twelve, and his carriage is about to turn back into a pumpkin. New England has allowed more than one passing TD only twice all season. Plus, they have given up less than 225 passing yards 11 times, with eight of those games under 200 passing yards allowed.
Value Play:
Tom Brady, Patriots vs. TEN ($5800 DK, $7600 FD)
Yes, Tom Brady has looked like a shell of himself recently. Nevertheless, this is the playoffs and the Patriots are at Foxboro. There is a certain magic that the Goat breaks out when the calendar hits January. The Titans have been good against bad QBs. Even in a down season, Brady isn’t a bad QB. He has a floor of 275-2 this week, as he will pepper both Julian Edelman and James White.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | $8,200 | $9,300 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,800 | $8,000 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,400 | $8,200 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,200 | $7,000 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,000 | $6,200 |
| Boston Scott | $5,800 | $6,600 |
| James White | $5,700 | $6,200 |
| Travis Homer | $5,300 | $6,100 |
| Marshawn Lynch | $5,200 | $5,900 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,100 | $6,400 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,000 | $5,700 |
| Jordan Howard | $4,900 | $5,600 |
| Alexander Mattison | $4,800 | $5,200 |
| Mike Boone | $4,700 | $5,400 |
| Sony Michel | $4,600 | $6,700 |
| Rex Burkhead | $4,500 | $5,600 |
| Duke Johnson | $4,400 | $5,300 |
| Dion Lewis | $4,200 | $5,000 |
| Frank Gore | $4,100 | $4,900 |
| Ameer Abdullah | $3,800 | $4,900 |
| Brandon Bolden | $3,100 | $4,500 |
| C.J. Ham | $3,100 | $4,500 |
Weekly strategy – Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook should be locks. That said, if you want to roster Michael Thomas, you will likely have to skip one of them. Devin Singletary and James White should both be in consideration as pivots or as FLEX plays. Below them, there are many other potential options. Sony Michel should fare well on the ground. Whoever starts for Philadelphia has a good matchup, so if you need a cheaper pivot watch the injury status of Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard. If Sanders doesn’t play, we should see more Howard than last week. We also will get a healthy dose of Boston Scott. Scott would instantly become a popular FLEX play if Sanders is out. Marshawn Lynch, Latavius Murray (revenge game) and Duke Johnson are two other possible plays.
Pay to Play:
Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. MIN ($7400 DK, $8200 FD)
Minnesota has struggled mightily against the run recently (mostly coinciding with some key defensive injuries). The defense should be at full gauge this week, but Alvin Kamara should be used regularly both on the ground and in the short-passing game. His price tag is just right this week to fit in alongside Dalvin Cook. If you don’t use Michael Thomas, you need to have Kamara in your lineup.
Stay Away:
Derrick Henry, Titans @ NE ($8200 DK, $9300 FD)
Derrick Henry will do some damage on the ground in this game and he is always a threat to break a carry away for a long score. That said, this game script could go pear-shaped quickly for Tennessee. If that happens, Henry’s value may be neutralized. I’m also slightly concerned that Tennessee might try to force-use Dion Lewis in a revenge game type role. That could detract from some of Henry’s touches. If you needed more reason to be wary, four of the last five RB corps to face New England have been held to under 60 rushing yards. If Henry’s price was in the $6K range, I’d feel a lot more comfortable using him.
Value Play:
James White, Patriots vs. TEN ($5700 DK, $6200 FD)
Much like Tom Brady, James White is made for playoff football. In eleven career playoff games, he has scored eight total TDs, and amazingly this includes being shut out in three games last year. White is a lock at RB3/FLEX this week since he will see a boatload of passes. Eleven different teams have recorded six or more RB receptions against Tennessee this year.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | $9,300 | $8,900 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,700 | $8,300 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,400 | $7,700 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,200 | $7,300 |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,600 | $7,300 |
| Julian Edelman | $6,500 | $7,000 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,200 | $6,200 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,100 | $6,200 |
| John Brown | $6,000 | $6,500 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,600 | $6,300 |
| Greg Ward | $5,200 | $5,600 |
| Will Fuller V | $4,900 | $5,600 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,600 | $5,800 |
| DeSean Jackson | $4,500 | $4,500 |
| Nelson Agholor | $4,400 | $5,000 |
| N’Keal Harry | $4,100 | $5,300 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $3,900 | $5,400 |
| Corey Davis | $3,800 | $5,400 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | $3,600 | $4,900 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | $3,500 | $4,600 |
| Olabisi Johnson | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| David Moore | $3,400 | $5,100 |
| DeAndre Carter | $3,400 | $4,500 |
| Duke Williams | $3,400 | $4,500 |
| JJ Arcega-Whiteside | $3,300 | $5,300 |
| Keke Coutee | $3,300 | $5,100 |
| Andre Roberts | $3,200 | $4,500 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $3,200 | $5,000 |
| Deontay Burnett | $3,100 | $5,200 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $3,100 | $4,700 |
| Robert Foster | $3,000 | $4,700 |
Weekly strategy – Michael Thomas is so good that he is always capable of approaching 30 points. His price has finally gotten high enough though that he will be hard to fit in without scraping the barrel at RB or TE. I’m also thinking that the Vikings will do everything possible to erase him and force the Saints to beat them with other players. Tyler Lockett has a good matchup, but his price seems high too. I actually prefer DK Metcalf in that contest, since WR2s have surged against Philly’s defense. Ultimately, I would like my WR1 to be Thomas, but when I cannot afford him, I will go with either Metcalf or Edelman. My WR2 and WR3 will come from this list: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Greg Ward, Kenny Stills and Mohamed Sanu. If I need to shave some salary, there are a couple punt options: N’Keal Harry, Olabisi Johnson, David Moore, Ted Ginn and the Eagles secondary WRs.
Pay to Play:
Michael Thomas, Saints vs. MIN ($9300 DK, $8900 FD)
Let us face the facts, Minnesota could double-shadow-cover Michael Thomas with both Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes all game and he would still get 10-100 as a floor. Ultimately, Thomas’ value this week will come down to whether or not the Vikings allow him to catch a ball in the end zone. If you are comfortable with a guaranteed 25 points from your WR1 roll with Thomas, just don’t assume that he will reach 30+.
Stay Away:
A.J. Brown, Titans @ NE ($7400 DK, $7700 FD)
Prior to giving up a long single catch TD to John Brown two weeks ago and a big stat line to Davante Parker last week, opposing WR1s versus New England had averaged 3.7-44 over the first 14 games. In total, they have given up only two WR1 TDs all season. Ironically, Corey Davis (who has done nothing for his career), has played some of his best football against the Patriots. So, even if Ryan Tannehill has some success this week. It will likely come through the hands of Davis.
Value Play:
Greg Ward, Eagles vs. SEA ($5200 DK, $5600 FD)
This is all about volume. Zach Ertz is unlikely to play and neither Nelson Agholor nor DeSean Jackson is ready to return. Plus, the teams’ best catching RB, Miles Sanders is also questionable. Greg Ward, Dallas Goedert, Deontay Burnett and even Joshua Perkins will be the featured pass catchers this week. I’m not expecting anything huge here, but 6-65-1 is certainly in play.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | $6,000 | $6,900 |
| Dallas Goedert | $5,200 | $6,700 |
| Taysom Hill | XXXX | $5,200 |
| Jared Cook | $4,900 | $6,500 |
| Jacob Hollister | $4,300 | $5,700 |
| Jonnu Smith | $3,800 | $5,800 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $3,500 | $5,000 |
| Josh Hill | $3,400 | $5,400 |
| Darren Fells | $3,000 | $4,800 |
| Dawson Knox | $2,900 | $4,800 |
| Joshua Perkins | $2,900 | $5,500 |
| Jordan Akins | $2,800 | $4,600 |
| Tyler Kroft | $2,800 | $4,500 |
| Ben Watson | $2,700 | $4,700 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $2,700 | $5,300 |
| Matt LaCosse | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Tyler Conklin | $2,500 | $4,000 |
Weekly strategy – Zach Ertz is hurt and probably shouldn’t play. Even if he does, I expect him to be a decoy. Once again, Dallas Goedert becomes the stud play of the week. If Ertz sits this one out, Joshua Perkins is also in play. Jared Cook is the obvious pivot. Kyle Rudolph and Darren Fells make interesting cheaper options. I also am intrigued by Ben Watson, Dawson Knox and Irv Smith as bottom-dollar TD chases. Also note that on FD, you can use Taysom Hill at TE.
Pay to Play:
Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. SEA ($5200 DK, $6700 FD)
The last two weeks, Dallas Goedert has 22 targets. Meanwhile, Zach Ertz is still unlikely to play, or at least meaningfully play. In their earlier meeting, the two combined for 19-123-1. Joshua Perkins may see some of those looks, but the majority of that usage will be funneled through Goedert. This wasn’t the first nor last time that Seattle failed to cover the TE position. Nine times this season they have allowed more than 60 receiving yards to the position.
Stay Away:
Jacob Hollister, Seahawks @ PHI ($4300 DK, $5700 FD)
Philly has allowed the fifth-fewest receptions and the sixth-fewest receiving yards to the TE position this season. In Week 12, Philadelphia held Jacob Hollister to 2-22. Hollister had a couple big games midseason right after Will Dissly went down to injury, but his lines have uninspired since their bye. Over that six-game stretch, he has one game with more than 44 yards.
Value Play:
Darren Fells, Texans vs. BUF ($3000 DK, $4800 FD)
Darren Fells also had a huge midseason followed by a weak end of year run. He has only 11 catches over the last eight games. Fells has never been a big “receptions” guy. You roster him for the TD-dependent 3-9-1 type line. Buffalo has allowed four TE scores over the last five games, so they are prime for the picking.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of our readers!!! Week 17, much like Week 1, can be confusing since so many teams choose to rest players for all of, or at least portions of the games. So, the most important thing to look for when setting your lineups is finding players who will be playing the full game and players who (more importantly) have something to play for. Teams with seeding on the line will likely go full-bore this week, which could open themselves up for larger than normal offensive output. While, teams that are “taking a bye” like Baltimore, will not score anywhere near what they would normally put up.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of our readers!!! Week 17, much like Week 1, can be confusing since so many teams choose to rest players for all of, or at least portions of the games. So, the most important thing to look for when setting your lineups is finding players who will be playing the full game and players who (more importantly) have something to play for. Teams with seeding on the line will likely go full-bore this week, which could open themselves up for larger than normal offensive output. While, teams that are “taking a bye” like Baltimore, will not score anywhere near what they would normally put up.
Also, don’t forget that we will be continuing to provide DFS content right up through the Conference Championship weekend, so stay tuned in and fatten your wallet to pay off all your January credit card bills.
The Main Slate:
There are many solid options at QB this week, but only three up top that I really love: Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. I guess I could lump Aaron Rodgers in this group too, but I just don’t think he’ll throw much in this game, because he won’t need to. If I were to spend down here, Andy Dalton and his opponent, Baker Mayfield could be in play. Considering where their teams are located in the standings however, they may just go through the motions in this one. The other mid-range options would be Tom Brady facing a subpar Miami defense and Carson Wentz. In Brady’s case, his receiving corps (aka Julian Edelman) is beat up and Edelman finished last week’s game playing through what appeared to be an undiagnosed concussion. For Wentz, he doesn’t even have a receiving corps to be injured. Unfortunately, most of the other QBs with good matchups are playing in games where not much matters (including Ryan and Winston). Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill face off in a game with playoff implications but both have injuries affecting their receiving corps, and now it looks like Watson may be dealing with an injury of his own. Drew Lock and Daniel Jones each get one more game to prove their worth as rookies, so each could be an option against weaker foes. Perhaps the safe play this week is just punt the position with Case Keenum. I could do that, but I’ll probably go with Drew Brees in a game where he needs to win to secure their playoff seeding. At 14% on both sites, he is not a bad price. Just know that his hookup with Michael Thomas is spendy and that will force you to bargain shop elsewhere.
Christian McCaffrey will return his standard 30 points which will be right under 3x, but certainly a worth play anyhow. That said, I will likely save some money by rolling out one of: Aaron Jones or Ezekiel Elliott or even Alvin Kamara at RB1. Marlon Mack should probably be a lock at RB2, but his price is still in that higher range, so you may be forced to roll with him at RB1 (especially if you do the Brees-Thomas stack). I would rather pair him with another higher-priced option though. Some additional cheaper RB2/FLEX options include: both Bears’ backs, both healthy Vikings’ backs, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, Damien Williams, Kerryon Johnson and Rex Burkhead. Mack paired with one of the three more expensive options will tie up 30% on DK and 27% on FD. If you pair Mack with one of the cheaper guys you will be invested at a rate of no more than 24% on DK and 20% on FD. Either way, make sure your FLEX here is under 10%.
I would not argue against purchasing any of the top three WRs. Michael Thomas is the priciest but he is the hookup with our QB, Brees. Julio Jones and Davante Adams both could be hookups with pivot QBs: Ryan and Rodgers. All that said, I’ve spent a lot at QB/RB, so I will go with no more than one of them (paired with their respective QBs). Other WR1 pivots could include: Breshad Perriman, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Brown and Courtland Sutton. It is comical how cheap Odell Beckham is this week. I’m not sure he has a lot to play for other than pride. That said, at this price, if he suits up, he should be your WR2. Other WR2 options include: Jarvis Landry, Sterling Shepard, Anthony Miller and Michael Gallup. I wouldn’t spend more than $5K on DK or $6K on FD for my WR3, so target guys like: Greg Ward, Allen Lazard, John Ross, Russell Gage, Tajae Sharpe, the Patriots’ backups and DaeSean Hamilton. Thomas is 20% by himself on DK. If you want to link him and Brees, you will have to spend less at RB1. At least on FD, Thomas is only 15%, making him slightly more palatable. Jones and Adams run at 17% on DK and 14% on FD. Odell Beckham and the similarly priced WR2 talent will run you roughly 11% on either site. I’m going to attempt to keep WR3 around 9% on either site.
Austin Hooper, Tyler Higbee and Dallas Goedert (if Zach Ertz sits) are cheat codes. They are all a little above my spending range, but I’ll finagle to try to fit one into most of my lineups. If I do go cheaper, Jason Witten, Kaden Smith and Noah Fant are nice value options. The top three will all run under 11.5% on either site. The value threesome will all run under 8% on DK and right around 9.3% on FD. I could also see a strategy where you spend down at RB, and use Double-TE this week. This might help you fit your Brees-Thomas stack in better.
The Steelers at $3K on DK and $3.5K on FD are a wonderful play, but watch and see if the Vikings rest Kirk Cousins. If they do, start the Bears on DK at a bargain-basement price against Sean Mann-I-ain’t-any-good-on. Of course, if you have figured out a way to expand the salary cap in this game, play the Patriots versus Miami. If you can make that work you are likely cheating more than Belichick does. The Bears and Steelers each roll in at under 6.5% on either site.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $7K for Drew Brees. $6.9K for Marlon Mack. Less than $5K for one of: Tarik Cohen, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, Damien Williams, Kerryon Johnson, Ameer Abdullah or Rex Burkhead. $9.9K for Michael Thomas. $5.7K for Odell Beckham. No more than $4.7K for your WR3 (currently leaning Tajae Sharpe). $4.9K for Dallas Goedert. $3.9K for Jason Witten at FLEX (or another RB such as Abdullah). $2.1K for the Bears’ defense.
At FD: $8.4K for Brees. $8K for Aaron Jones. $7.3K for Mack. $9.2K for Thomas. $6.6K for Beckham. No more than $5.5K for WR3 (leaning Russell Gage). $6K for Austin Hooper. No more than $5.5K for FLEX (currently leaning Tarik Cohen). $3.5K for the Steelers’ defense.
At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Brees, Carson Wentz at SF, Alvin Kamara, Mack, Thomas, Beckham, Sharpe, Goedert, and Sony Michel at FLEX.
At Fantasy Draft (includes Sun Night): Brees, A. Jones, Mack, Thomas, Sharpe, Noah Fant, Michel, Damien Williams, and the Bears’ defense.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $7,200 | $8,600 |
| Drew Brees | $7,000 | $8,400 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $6,900 | $8,300 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,800 | $7,900 |
| Deshaun Watson | $6,700 | $8,000 |
| Jameis Winston | $6,600 | $8,100 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,500 | $7,800 |
| Daniel Jones | $6,400 | $7,500 |
| Dak Prescott | $6,300 | $8,000 |
| Jared Goff | $6,200 | $7,900 |
| Carson Wentz | $6,100 | $7,700 |
| Josh Allen | $6,000 | $7,600 |
| Tom Brady | $6,000 | $7,600 |
| Andy Dalton | $5,900 | $6,900 |
| Drew Lock | $5,800 | $7,100 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $5,800 | $7,300 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $5,800 | $7,400 |
| Baker Mayfield | $5,700 | $7,400 |
| Kirk Cousins | $5,700 | $7,700 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $5,700 | $7,400 |
| Derek Carr | $5,500 | $7,300 |
| Kyler Murray | $5,500 | $7,700 |
| Philip Rivers | $5,400 | $7,400 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $5,300 | $6,700 |
| Nick Foles | $5,300 | $6,300 |
| Robert Griffin III | $5,100 | $7,000 |
| Sam Darnold | $5,000 | $7,200 |
| David Blough | $4,700 | $6,600 |
| Devlin Hodges | $4,600 | $6,500 |
| Will Grier | $4,600 | $6,400 |
| Brett Hundley | $4,500 | $7,000 |
| Case Keenum | $4,500 | $6,800 |
Weekly strategy – I feel that the smart play is to just play it safe with Drew Brees. Pairing him with Michael Thomas is expensive but proper. If you don’t feel like spending up for those two consider pairing Matt Ryan or Jameis Winston with their top option. Aaron Rodgers could also be paired with Davante Adams. If you want to be cheaper yet consider Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, or even punt with Drew Lock or Case Keenum.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Drew Brees, Saints @ CAR ($7000 DK, $8400 FD)
Drew Brees popped up on the injury report Christmas day with a knee issue. It turns out that this is a nothing-burger. This game means everything to the Saints as far as playoff seating. So, there is zero chance that New Orleans calls off the horses at any point in this contest. It is true that RB is an easier position to attack Carolina with, but the Panthers’ defense phoned it in over a month ago. Start and stack Brees with Michael Thomas and/or Jared Cook. If you choose to fade this stack, then make sure you get some exposure to Alvin Kamara.
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers vs. ATL ($6600 DK, $8100 FD)
Atlanta has been a hot mess on both sides of the ball. They have been middle-of-the-pack at best this year allowing multiple total TDs to all but four QBs. In their earlier meeting, Jameis Winston threw for 313-3 and added 38 yards on the ground. Those ground yards have been a common trend against Atlanta. Five of the last six opponents to the Falcons have topped 24 rushing yards with their QBs. They have also allowed five QB rushing scores on the year. In addition, Winston has been on fire posting over three hundred yards passing in 11 of his last 13 games, with three games over the 400-yard plateau as well. Yeah, he will throw three INTs in this game too, but I’ll eat those for 350-3.
Matt Ryan, Falcons @ TB ($6500 DK, $7800 FD)
This game means nothing to both teams from a playoff perspective. It does however hold a significant impact on the makeup of the coaching staffs and rosters for each of these teams going into next season. Neither secondary is good, and Tampa’s run defense is elite. Pairing those factors together should open the flood gates for Matt Ryan to throw the ball as many as 60 times in this game. In their earlier meeting, Ryan was held both under 300 passing yards and out of the end zone. This is abnormal since he has thrown for over 300 yards in six of their prior eight meetings. This is the type of game that could end up 12-10 or it could be 55-49. I’m expecting the latter with both teams employing a “Pro-Bowl-style” “defense” and many field-length passes.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ DET ($6900 DK, $8300 FD)
On paper this looks like an easy matchup. That said, this may be too easy of a matchup. Aaron Rodgers is always a threat to go off for 300-3, but this year those performances have been few and far between. In fact, over his last seven games, Rodgers has only one game with more than one TD. Meanwhile, six of the last nine teams to face Detroit have watched their QBs throw for three or more TDs. With the Detroit defense struggling to hold opposing RBs in check in the passing game, I expect Rodgers to dump it off a fair amount to Aaron Jones. I also expect a fair number of passes to Davante Adams. The Packers are playing for a first-round bye, so expect them to go whole-hog this week. The main concern I have is that the Packers’ defense puts them up a lot early, and we get a ton of Jones running the ball in the second half.
Sleepers:
Baker Mayfield, Browns @ CIN ($5700 DK, $7400 FD)
Much like the Atlanta/Tampa Bay game, this game could be high-scoring or it could be a snoozer. Cincy has played with some spark on offense since Andy Dalton returned, and even if they win this week, it won’t affect their draft status. Dalton is playing for a contract somewhere else and Baker Mayfield is playing to reinforce to his front office that he is the QB of their future. There is a legit chance that this game could devolve into a shootout, with each QB looking to pad their resume. I like Dalton paired with Tyler Boyd, but I like Mayfield paired with Odell Beckham or Jarvis Landry even more.
Case Keenum, Redskins @ DAL ($4500 DK, $6800 FD)
Case Keenum got the start in their meeting back in Week 2. Now, he is back under center for the team’s final start of the year. Dallas has struggled with weaker passing games recently. The Redskins (with Keenum at QB) actually pose more of a threat than they did with Dwayne Haskins under center. Keenum has nothing to lose this week, and he is essentially auditioning for another potential bridge-role somewhere else next year. We also know that Dallas will be going all-out with the chance of winning their division, so Keenum will be forced to throw to keep up.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,000 | $11,000 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,700 | $9,300 |
| Aaron Jones | $8,200 | $8,000 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,100 | $8,800 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,000 | $8,700 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,900 | $8,000 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,800 | $7,900 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,500 | $7,900 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,200 | $7,300 |
| Kenyan Drake | $7,100 | $7,300 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,000 | $7,400 |
| Marlon Mack | $6,900 | $7,300 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,800 | $7,400 |
| Todd Gurley II | $6,600 | $7,800 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,500 | $6,700 |
| Josh Jacobs | $6,300 | $7,600 |
| Austin Ekeler | $6,200 | $6,800 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $6,100 | $6,600 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $6,000 | $7,200 |
| James White | $5,900 | $6,300 |
| Le’Veon Bell | $5,800 | $7,100 |
| James Conner | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,600 | $5,400 |
| Alexander Mattison | $5,500 | $5,600 |
| Jamaal Williams | $5,500 | $5,100 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,400 | $6,200 |
| Mike Boone | $5,300 | $6,200 |
| DeAndre Washington | $5,200 | $6,300 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,200 | $6,100 |
| David Montgomery | $5,100 | $6,300 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,000 | $6,400 |
| Adrian Peterson | $4,900 | $6,300 |
| Ronald Jones II | $4,900 | $6,200 |
| Sony Michel | $4,900 | $6,500 |
| Tarik Cohen | $4,900 | $5,500 |
| Dion Lewis | $4,800 | $5,400 |
| Gus Edwards | $4,800 | $6,600 |
| Damien Williams | $4,700 | $6,400 |
| Justice Hill | $4,600 | $5,900 |
| Benny Snell Jr. | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| Kerryon Johnson | $4,500 | $4,500 |
| Rex Burkhead | $4,500 | $6,200 |
| Duke Johnson | $4,300 | $5,200 |
| Giovani Bernard | $4,300 | $4,600 |
| Jaylen Samuels | $4,300 | $5,300 |
| Patrick Laird | $4,300 | $5,100 |
| Royce Freeman | $4,300 | $5,400 |
| LeSean McCoy | $4,200 | $5,700 |
| Nyheim Hines | $4,200 | $5,700 |
| Boston Scott | $4,100 | $5,400 |
| Ameer Abdullah | $3,900 | $5,200 |
| Chris Thompson | $3,900 | $5,100 |
| Bo Scarbrough | $3,700 | $5,400 |
| Peyton Barber | $3,600 | $5,100 |
Weekly strategy – Marlon Mack will be my most owned player. Whether he is my RB1 or RB2 depends on whether I choose to stack Drew Brees with Michael Thomas or not. If I stack the Saints, then Mack will be my RB1. Otherwise, Mack will be my RB2 paired with one of: Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara. When I use Mack at RB1, I will pair him with a second RB under 10% of my total budget. I may also choose to pull my FLEX from this position. Again, if I do that, I will keep it to less than 10% of my budget. Players I will consider in the range of RB2/FLEX include: both Bears, both Vikings, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, Damien Williams, both Ravens, both Redskins and Ronald Jones.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers vs. NO ($10000 DK, $11000 FD)
Just pencil in Christian McCaffrey for his regular 30 points per week and smile. He was absolutely peppered last week, and with records within reach, expect another double-digit reception game. New Orleans is tough to run against, but they are actually fairly rotten against pass-catching backs. C-Mac scored twice in their earlier meeting. It will happen again.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. WAS ($8000 DK, $8700 FD)
Dallas wouldn’t be in dire straits for playoff seeding, if they had just fed Ezekiel Elliott last week. With his job on the line, Jason Garrett won’t make that mistake again. Washington is allowing an absurd 172 combo yards per game to opposing backs and they have given up receptions by the plateful. Consider this a holiday feast looming for Zeke.
Aaron Jones, Packers @ DET ($8200 DK, $8000 FD)
As I mentioned above when detailing Aaron Rodgers, Detroit is super-susceptible to pass-catching RBs. Jamaal Williams is questionable at best for this week, so, Aaron Jones may be the only show in town to catch passes. On the other hand, Detroit is actually decent at holding RBs in check on the ground yardage-wise. So, don’t expect a ton of ground yards. Of course, Green Bay’s defense will likely annihilate David Blough. This should mean lots of volume for the Packers’ run offense after they get up huge early.
Alvin Kamara, Saints @ CAR ($7800 DK, $7900 FD)
The Carolina Panthers have allowed a comical nine RB touchdowns over the last four weeks. Plus, in their prior meeting, Alvin Kamara secured nine receptions against them. Over the Saints’ last three games, Kamara has re-established himself as the featured back in New Orleans. He has out-touched Latavius Murray nearly two-to-one. Murray will eat in this one too, but Kamara could be slate-breaking. If you don’t use Drew Brees/Michael Thomas, you absolutely must use Kamara to have exposure to this game.
Sleepers:
Marlon Mack, Colts @ JAX ($6900 DK, $7300 FD)
Speaking of slate-breaking potential. Marlon Mack is facing a defense that I have politely renamed Slacksonville. Over their last seven games, the Jags have allowed only 220 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. Plus, they have given up thirteen total RB touchdowns over that span. Marlon Mack will cede some touches to both Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins, but he will still post an absurd line. You can even safely consider Hines and Wilkins as punt plays if you need to save some cash.
Sony Michel, Patriots vs. MIA ($4900 DK, $6500 FD)
Sony Michel gives up red zone touches to Rex Burkhead and passing-down usage to James White. Still, Michel has regularly out-touched both of them. Miami can be run on fairly easily. With Julian Edelman looking like Apollo Creed after facing Drago and a cast of goobers behind him, expect New England to run the ball a lot this week. I’m not going to predict a score here, but he should top 100 rushing yards without much issues. With a high-volume of usage, he may actually break one away before they can pull him for Burkhead.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | $9,900 | $9,200 |
| Julio Jones | $8,500 | $8,500 |
| Davante Adams | $8,000 | $8,400 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,800 | $8,300 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,700 | $8,200 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,500 | $7,600 |
| Julian Edelman | $7,300 | $7,500 |
| Allen Robinson II | $7,200 | $7,800 |
| DeVante Parker | $7,100 | $6,900 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,000 | $7,200 |
| Robert Woods | $7,000 | $7,700 |
| Cooper Kupp | $6,800 | $7,400 |
| Breshad Perriman | $6,700 | $7,600 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,700 | $6,600 |
| DJ Moore | $6,600 | $6,000 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,500 | $7,500 |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,500 | $7,500 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,400 | $7,100 |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,300 | $7,400 |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,200 | $6,200 |
| Keenan Allen | $6,100 | $6,700 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,100 | $6,100 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,000 | $6,800 |
| John Brown | $6,000 | $6,400 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $6,000 | $6,500 |
| Jarvis Landry | $5,900 | $6,800 |
| Anthony Miller | $5,800 | $6,700 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $5,800 | $5,900 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,700 | $6,300 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $5,700 | $6,600 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $5,500 | $5,900 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,400 | $6,500 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,300 | $5,800 |
| Golden Tate | $5,100 | $5,900 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,100 | $5,600 |
| Mike Williams | $5,000 | $6,300 |
| Curtis Samuel | $4,900 | $6,000 |
| Darius Slayton | $4,900 | $5,400 |
| Justin Watson | $4,900 | $6,100 |
| Diontae Johnson | $4,800 | $6,000 |
| Zach Pascal | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Christian Kirk | $4,700 | $5,700 |
| Greg Ward | $4,700 | $5,600 |
| Marquise Brown | $4,700 | $5,400 |
| Steven Sims Jr. | $4,700 | $6,000 |
| James Washington | $4,600 | $5,600 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,600 | $5,800 |
| Tyrell Williams | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| Chris Conley | $4,500 | $5,800 |
| Danny Amendola | $4,500 | $5,700 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $4,500 | $6,000 |
| John Ross III | $4,500 | $5,200 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $4,500 | $5,900 |
| Sammy Watkins | $4,500 | $5,600 |
| Brandin Cooks | $4,400 | $5,900 |
| Russell Gage | $4,400 | $5,300 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $4,300 | $5,600 |
| Albert Wilson | $4,200 | $5,600 |
| Dede Westbrook | $4,200 | $5,300 |
| N’Keal Harry | $4,200 | $5,400 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $4,100 | $5,300 |
| Allen Lazard | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| Corey Davis | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | $4,000 | $5,000 |
| Randall Cobb | $3,900 | $5,200 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | $3,800 | $5,500 |
| JJ Arcega-Whiteside | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| Jarius Wright | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $3,300 | $5,100 |
| Josh Reynolds | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Vyncint Smith | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Tavon Austin | $3,100 | $4,800 |
Weekly strategy – Simply put, I am going to pair my WR1 with whoever I choose to start at QB. Michael Thomas is my first choice, but considering his price I will have exposure to Julio Jones, Davante Adams, Breshad Perriman and even Julian Edelman. Try to roster your WR2 for under $6K on DK and under $7K on FD. I especially like both starters for Cleveland, their opponent Tyler Boyd, and second-year guys Michael Gallup and Anthony Miller. Any of the three Giants could also be used in this range. There are several WR3 options that make sense including: Steven Sims, Greg Ward, John Ross, Russell Gage, Tajae Sharpe, Randall Cobb, DaeSean Hamilton, and all the Patriots’ scrubs.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Michael Thomas, Saints @ CAR ($9900 DK, $9200 FD)
Michael Thomas has become the C-Mac of WRs. He might not hit 3X, but he will still approach 27 points without much effort. Michael Thomas has topped 100 yards in eight of his last nine games. He also has double-digit receptions nine times this year. This game means everything to the Saints, and very little to the Panthers. Plus, Thomas can further stretch his receptions record. I smell 12-130-1 as a floor this week, with his numbers only capped because Carolina will give up three rushing TDs as well.
Davante Adams, Packers @ DET ($8000 DK, $8400 FD)
Detroit can be beaten through the air (especially by larger outside WRs). Since his return in Week 9, Davante Adams ranks second behind only Michael Thomas in terms of targets and receptions. In only one of those games, was Adams targeted less than 10 times. In a must-win game, Adams will see more than his usual allotment of targets. This should guarantee 100 yards and at least one score.
Julio Jones, Falcons @ TB ($8500 DK, $8500 FD)
Julio Jones played third-fiddle in the earlier contest between these two teams. One of those ahead of him, Calvin Ridley, is out for the year. The other guy is Russell Gage (who I like this week as well). Tampa has allowed the most WR receptions and receiving yardage per game all season. Plus, only two teams have given up more WR touchdowns. The last game wasn’t his best showing, but it was still pretty good. Even including that lesser line, Julio is averaging 7.1-117-0.7 against Tampa over his career. If you choose to fade the Saints’ stack, this game could be the one to load up on.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans @ TEN ($7800 DK, $8300 FD)
Two weeks ago, DeAndre Hopkins was held out of the end zone versus the Titans. He still posted a strong 6-119 line as Kenny Stills stole all the TDs. The Titans’ defense then proceeded to fall all over themselves trying to stop Michael Thomas. They failed, badly. Both, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills are questionable for this week’s game, Hopkins could become Option A, B and C. The biggest concern here is if Deshaun Watson is limited or out with his back issues. A.J. McCarron is nowhere near the threat that Watson is.
Sleepers:
Odell Beckham, Browns @ CIN ($5700 DK, $6600 FD)
Odell Beckham has been limited all season by questionable QB play and a myriad of injuries. Still, he has gutted it out and actually posted a reasonable final line. It remains to be seen if Beckham is back with the Browns next season. Still, he will be out there this week against a better-than-you-might-think Cincy pass defense. As I mentioned above, I expect this game to turn into a shootout. If that happens, both Beckham and Jarvis Landry will be solid stacks with Baker Mayfield.
Greg Ward, Eagles @ NYG ($4700 DK, $5600 FD)
The Giants defense is non-existent, six different WRs have scored multiple touchdowns against them. Greg Ward remains one of the few healthy eligible receivers for Philly. Since Week 14, Ward has 23 targets. The rest of the Philadelphia WR corps has ten. There have been a lot of targets funneled to Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, but Ertz is questionable for this week. If he cannot go, Ward may see even more pass attempts. At this price, Ward is one of my favorite WR3 plays.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $7,000 | $7,500 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,500 | $7,000 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,000 | $6,700 |
| Austin Hooper | $5,800 | $6,000 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,600 | $6,900 |
| Darren Waller | $5,400 | $6,200 |
| Jared Cook | $5,200 | $6,800 |
| Dallas Goedert | $4,900 | $6,400 |
| Hunter Henry | $4,500 | $6,000 |
| O.J. Howard | $4,300 | $5,500 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,200 | $5,800 |
| Jack Doyle | $4,100 | $6,000 |
| Mike Gesicki | $4,000 | $5,900 |
| Jason Witten | $3,900 | $5,600 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $3,800 | $4,800 |
| Kaden Smith | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| Noah Fant | $3,600 | $5,600 |
| David Njoku | $3,500 | $4,500 |
| Gerald Everett | $3,500 | $5,200 |
| Greg Olsen | $3,400 | $5,200 |
| Nick Boyle | $3,400 | $4,900 |
| Tyler Eifert | $3,400 | $4,700 |
| Cameron Brate | $3,200 | $4,900 |
| Hayden Hurst | $3,200 | $4,700 |
| Darren Fells | $3,100 | $4,800 |
| Vance McDonald | $2,900 | $4,800 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | $2,800 | $5,200 |
| Dawson Knox | $2,700 | $4,800 |
| Demetrius Harris | $2,700 | $4,500 |
Weekly strategy – This is a great week to consider Double-TE. There are three higher-dollar options that I love in Dallas Goedert, Austin Hooper and Tyler Higbee. If I go Double-TE, I will pair one of them with one of: Jason Witten, Kaden Smith or Noah Fant. I could also just use one of the TEs and grab my FLEX from the RB position. In that case, any of the six make good options.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Tyler Higbee, Rams vs. ARI ($5600 DK, $6900 FD)
You get the hottest TE in the league and you put him against arguably the worst TE defense in history. What could possibly go wrong? Let us just hope that Sean McVay doesn’t get cute. If Los Angeles trusts the process here, we could see a 10-150-3 game. Even without trying, Tyler Higbee should post a floor of 6-60-1.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ LAC ($7000 DK, $7500 FD)
The Chargers have given up a TE score in three of their last five games. This includes a 7-92-1 line by Travis Kelce. Los Angeles is actually really tough against WRs, so Kelce may be featured once again. I’d be happy with a repeat performance. I just don’t think I need to play him at that price since the other options are elite.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles @ NYG ($4900 DK, $6400 FD)
At this point it is unclear if Zach Ertz will play. When he returned to the game last week, he was basically a decoy anyways. Dallas Goedert showed last week what he could do as the featured target and he may be in for a similar game this week. New York gave up 17-169-2 to the Eagles’ tight ends in Week 14. I’ll take half of that. If you need a sneaky stack, consider Goedert paired with both Carson Wentz and Greg Ward. Philly knows that they are fighting with the Cowboys for the division title, so they will do everything possible to win here.
Austin Hooper, Falcons @ TB ($5800 DK, $6000 FD)
Tampa has fared better against TEs of late. That said, prior to Week 11, they were being eviscerated by the position. In Week 12, Austin Hooper missed the game, but Jaeden Graham caught a 53-yard pass. Hooper is back fully healthy, and I expect this game to be a shootout. He might not have the upside of Goedert or Higbee, but he will be lesser-owned. This could pay off in spades in GPP formats.
Sleepers:
Jason Witten, Cowboys vs. WAS ($3900 DK, $5600 FD)
This very well could be Jason Witten’s last game in Dallas. Fortunately, he is facing a Washington defense that has given up seven TE scores over their last six games. Witten scored in the earlier meeting, and I fully expect that Dak Prescott will make sure that Witten scores here with his career possibly on the line.
Noah Fant, Broncos vs. OAK ($3600 DK, $5600 FD)
Oakland has given up 60 or more TE receiving yards eight times this year. Plus, the nine touchdowns that they have allowed to the position trails only Arizona. Meanwhile, Noah Fant doesn’t get a lot of receptions, but he does post some solid stats with them. Drew Lock is a sneaky stack with Fant and either Courtland Sutton or DaeSean Hamilton. I especially like using the Lock-Hamilton-Fant stack in SuperFlex formats where I can fit them alongside Drew Brees and Michael Thomas and a couple high-priced RBs.
The Huddle presents another season of The Blitzed Podcast. In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL News, a look at their too early top 12 WRs and top 12 TEs for the 2020 season, and a double dose of DFS Pay to Plays, Stay Aways and Value Plays for the Saturday and Sunday slates.
The Huddle presents another season of The Blitzed Podcast. In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL News, a look at their too early top 12 WRs and top 12 TEs for the 2020 season, and DFS Pay to Plays, Stay Aways and Value Plays.
Huddle up, tune in and Get Blitzed!
Hopefully, everyone enjoys our holiday gift of bonus #DFS coverage this weekend. Of course, we still have Sunday to play through as well. With two days of DFS, I’m looking for more than two turtle doves and a partridge in a pear tree. That said, I guess I would settle for five golden rings. Because the only thing better than fiat currency in our e-wallets is real physical gold in our homes.
Hopefully, everyone enjoys our holiday gift of bonus #DFS coverage this weekend. Of course, we still have Sunday to play through as well. With two days of DFS, I’m looking for more than two turtle doves and a partridge in a pear tree. That said, I guess I would settle for five golden rings. Because the only thing better than fiat currency in our e-wallets is real physical gold in our homes.
The Primetime Slate:
This should be fun. Kansas City is traveling to Chicago on Sunday night. Chicago is not the big bad defense they were last year and KC isn’t the record-setting offense that they were last year. Still, any offense led by Pat Mahomes cannot be ignored, even on the road. I’m not going to overplay the Chiefs’ offense, but I’d be lying if I said that I don’t intend to do a few Mahomes-Hill-Kelce style stacks. I’m less bullish on Mitch Trubisky. Yes, he has been better the last couple of weeks. The problem is, KC’s defense has also been better the last few weeks. Seven of the last ten QBs to face the Chiefs have failed to record more than one passing touchdown. Figuring out the Chiefs’ backfield is on par with comprehending theoretical physics. If we could make heads or tails of it, I would be happy to play one of them against a defense that has been solid but which has allowed a fair number of scores recently. Damien Williams practiced earlier this week. If he can go, he might be as safe of a play as you will find in this matchup. Of course, it also could just further muddy this four-headed monster. David Montgomery has been a huge bust this year, and it won’t get any prettier here. If I was going to roster a Chicago back this week, it would be Tarik Cohen. I’m even likely to use Cohen as my FLEX or RB2 this week because the Chiefs have been beaten by pass-catching backs. As I mention above, Tyreek Hill is certainly in play at WR1, and I may even pair him with another high-dollar WR. Five of the last six WR1s to face Chicago have scored, and Tyreek can score at ease and at will. Chicago hasn’t been great against WR2s either, but Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson have both been more miss than hit this season. At this point, neither is more than a dart throw WR3/FLEX. I almost prefer Mecole Hardman, if I want a boom/bust option. Allen Robinson is white-hot right now. Good luck fading him at WR2. There are a lot of WRs to choose from though, including Anthony Miller, who is also a possible WR3. As for the TEs, I tried the J.P. Holtz gimmick last week, it didn’t work, lesson learned (even against a beatable KC defense). On the other hand, Travis Kelce is a stud and he is facing a team that struggles with quality TEs. I doubt that I can afford him, but I will certainly try. The Chiefs’ defense will likely be my go-to.
Green Bay and Minnesota renew their rivalry on MNF. Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers should each post solid numbers. I give a slight edge to Rodgers, because the Minnesota secondary has been flaky of late. Dalvin Cook is out with a shoulder injury. Assuming that Alexander Mattison is also out, Mike Boone becomes the lock RB1. This is a pure indictment of how rotten the Packers’ run defense is. Aaron Jones is a better RB than Jamaal Williams. Still, Green Bay wants to give both of them touches. Jones should be the RB2 or RB3 on this slate. Williams is no more than a flier at FLEX. The Packers struggle with quality WRs, so both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are in consideration at WR2. Davante Adams gets the better matchup against the Vikings’ cornerbacks. He is the deserving WR1 and either a pivot from Hill or a pair with him. Good luck deciphering the rest of the Green Bay WRs. Allen Lazard is the only one I’d consider, and then only at WR3. Green Bay’s TEs are easy ignores, despite a decent matchup. Both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith are great plays for the Vikings. Rudolph needs to be the favorite TE pick this slate, since Kelce is so pricy. Both teams have good defenses, but I’d choose Minnesota at home before considering the Packers.
The Main Slate:
There are three rock star options this week. I hope to have one of: Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott in my lineups. I also don’t mind Kyler Murray or Philip Rivers as a pivot. Andy Dalton is the only punt play that I will consider. Lamar will run 16% on either site, while Russell and Dak will be 14% and 13% respectively on DK and Dak will be only slightly higher on FD.
Each of the three highest dollar options are appealing. That said, I am going to be lean thin here with some great values on the docket. My goal is to use two of the following: Joe Mixon, Mark Ingram, Leonard Fournette, Marlon Mack, Austin Ekeler and Devonta Freeman. If I want to spend up, I might consider using one of them at FLEX. In truth, my plan is to use DeAndre Washington at FLEX on the majority of my rosters. The only other RBs of interest to me: Phillip Lindsay, Patrick Laird or one of the Redskins. Target two of my value seven for no more than 28% on DK and 26% on FD. Washington will run you 8% on DK and 9.3% on FD.
We’ve spent a ton at QB/RB, so I will go cheap at WR. Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen and Davante Parker are the only high-priced options that I trust will hit 3x. Michael Thomas will as well, but he is far too expensive for my roster this week. There are a few decent WR options between $5K and $6.5K. I will likely use two of them at WR1 and WR2. If I do choose Cooper, Allen or Parker, then expect my WR2 to be at the bottom end of this price grouping. At this point, I am leaning Darius Slayton and Hollywood Brown. I will also dumpster dive with WR3 by using: John Ross, Randall Cobb, Albert Wilson or Russell Gage. There are just so many possibilities here this week. Try to keep your WR1/WR2 spending to 24% on DK and 20% on FD. Your WR3 should be no more than 9% on either site.
Zach Ertz is the only sure thing at TE this week. Whenever possible I will use him. That said, much like WR, I may be forced to spend down for a risky choice such as: Noah Fant, Kaden Smith or Jacob Hollister. Ertz is 13% on DK and 11.5% on FD. Otherwise, your cheaper TE options on DK will top off at 8.5% and your FD choice should rate in around 9%.
The Broncos are the safest play and at only 7% on DK and 8.3% on FD, they are a great option. If I need to pay down, I’ll probably take a shot on the Giants, Redskins or Lions. None should be above 5.6% on either site. The Jets at $3.6K on FD remains a cheap option too.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $8K for Lamar Jackson. $12.2K for Devonta Freeman and Marlon Mack. $6.3K for Keenan Allen. $5.2K for Marquise Brown. $4.2K for John Ross. $6.4K for Zach Ertz. $4K for DeAndre Washington at FLEX. $3.5K for the Broncos’ defense.
At FD: $9.3K for Jackson. $13.5K total for Freeman and Mack. $6.7K for Keenan. $12.6K total for Hollywood and Davante Parker. $6.9K for Ertz. $5.6K for Washington. $5K for the Broncos’ defense.
At Fanball (classic – includes Sun Night): Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Phillip Lindsay, Michael Gallup, Hollywood Brown, John Ross, Hunter Henry, and the Redskins’ defense.
At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Jackson, Andy Dalton at SF, Freeman, Mack, Allen, Hollywood, Mark Andrews, Ertz, and D. Washington at FLEX.
At Fantasy Draft (includes Sun Night): Jackson, Mack, Joe Mixon, Hollywood, Darius Slayton, Ertz, Freeman, D. Washington, and the Broncos’ defense.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,000 | $9,300 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,000 | $8,300 |
| Drew Brees | $6,900 | $8,200 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,600 | $7,800 |
| Dak Prescott | $6,400 | $8,000 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,200 | $7,700 |
| Kyler Murray | $6,100 | $7,700 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $6,000 | $7,400 |
| Daniel Jones | $5,900 | $7,300 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $5,900 | $7,500 |
| Carson Wentz | $5,800 | $7,700 |
| Matthew Stafford | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| Eli Manning | $5,700 | $7,100 |
| Philip Rivers | $5,700 | $7,500 |
| Drew Lock | $5,600 | $7,300 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $5,500 | $6,800 |
| Baker Mayfield | $5,400 | $7,400 |
| Derek Carr | $5,300 | $7,300 |
| Sam Darnold | $5,300 | $7,400 |
| Andy Dalton | $5,200 | $7,100 |
| Devlin Hodges | $5,100 | $6,900 |
| David Blough | $4,900 | $6,800 |
| Dwayne Haskins Jr. | $4,700 | $7,000 |
| Will Grier | $4,300 | $6,000 |
Weekly strategy – Lamar Jackson is a cheat code, even at a high price. If I don’t use him, I may pivot to Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray or Philip Rivers. If I need to save money, I might consider Andy Dalton. I shouldn’t have to though since I am going cheaper than normal at WR, and avoiding all the super expensive players at RB.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ CLE ($8000 DK, $9300 FD)
The Browns’ secondary has improved over the course of the year. They still are beatable, especially deep, which is Lamar Jackson’s thing. They have also given up rushing TDs to three of the five running QBs they have faced. One of the two that didn’t score against them on the ground was Jackson, but he finished their earlier meeting with three passing scores and 66 yards on the ground. This week’s line will be higher than that.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks vs. ARI ($7000 DK, $8300 FD)
Speaking of running QBs, this game features two of the second-tier of that class of QB. Lamar Jackson is the only running QB to do much damage against the Cards this year, but he produced RB1 numbers against them in his meeting. In their earlier meeting, Russell Wilson only notched seven rushing yards and only one score. At home (and with playoff implications) Wilson should triple that line.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys @ PHI ($6400 DK, $8000 FD)
Dak Prescott is dealing with a few minor maladies. This shouldn’t reduce his value against a rotten Eagles’ pass defense. Philly has allowed seven passing TDs over their last three contests, despite facing subpar QBs. In their earlier meeting, Prescott only threw for one score, but he added one on the ground. It is tough to run the ball on this defense, so Dak will be the primary beneficiary if Ezekiel Elliott struggles to move the ball on the ground.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals @ SEA ($6100 DK, $7700 FD)
Our top four QBs for this week are all capable “Rushing QBs”. Kyler Murray is not Lamar Jackson. He doesn’t even have half the rushing yards as the likely MVP. That said, Murray is number two at the position in rushing yards. With Russell Wilson throwing the ball all over the yard with playoff positioning on the line, Murray will need to throw it a ton also to keep up. He won’t beat Seattle, but Murray should post 250-2, 35-1 in a shootout.
Sleepers:
Philip Rivers, Chargers vs. OAK ($5700 DK, $7500 FD)
Oakland’s pass defense is nonexistent. Since Week 4, only one QB (other than Ryan Finley – who is not an NFL QB) has not thrown for multiple TDs. That QB at least added a rushing TD as well (and that game was a windstorm). Philip Rivers is no longer an elite QB, but he does have the third most passing yards of any QB this season. 300-2 is a guarantee here, and I love stacking him with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and/or Hunter Henry.
Andy Dalton, Bengals @ MIA ($5200 DK, $7100 FD)
No team has allowed more total TDs to opposing QBs than Miami. This includes six different teams recording three or more TDs. Andy Dalton has only two passing TDs in his three games since retaking the reins in Cincy, but at least this week he won’t be having nightmares of Stephon Gilmore.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,100 | $10,800 |
| Chris Carson | $8,500 | $8,200 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,300 | $8,800 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $7,900 | $8,700 |
| Derrick Henry | $7,700 | $8,800 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,500 | $7,200 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,200 | $7,500 |
| Nick Chubb | $6,900 | $8,000 |
| Mark Ingram II | $6,800 | $7,600 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,600 | $7,800 |
| James Conner | $6,500 | $7,400 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,400 | $7,400 |
| Kenyan Drake | $6,300 | $7,100 |
| Marlon Mack | $6,200 | $7,300 |
| Austin Ekeler | $6,100 | $6,800 |
| Devonta Freeman | $6,000 | $6,200 |
| Le’Veon Bell | $5,800 | $7,100 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $5,600 | $7,000 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,500 | $6,100 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $5,300 | $6,300 |
| Jordan Howard | $5,200 | $6,900 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,100 | $5,500 |
| Adrian Peterson | $5,000 | $6,500 |
| Kerryon Johnson | $4,900 | $4,500 |
| Patrick Laird | $4,600 | $5,500 |
| Nyheim Hines | $4,400 | $5,700 |
| Gus Edwards | $4,200 | $5,000 |
| Bo Scarbrough | $4,000 | $5,900 |
| Boston Scott | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| DeAndre Washington | $4,000 | $5,600 |
| Jaylen Samuels | $4,000 | $5,600 |
| Royce Freeman | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| Wes Hills | $3,900 | $5,600 |
| Myles Gaskin | $3,800 | $5,200 |
| Chris Thompson | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Bilal Powell | $3,600 | $5,000 |
| J.D. McKissic | $3,200 | $4,900 |
Weekly strategy – DeAndre Washington at FLEX is the mortal lock. After that, there are several possible choices all in the same price range: Leonard Fournette, Mark Ingram, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, Austin Ekeler, Devonta Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. I will choose two of them on most of my lineups. It should be known that I actually like Saquan Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Chris Carson. I just want to save money here, so that I can afford Lamar Jackson and maybe afford Zach Ertz. If I choose to go cheaper at TE or QB, then I might opt for one of the expensive threesome. If I choose to go extremely cheap here, I may pair Washington with one of the Redskins, Patrick Laird, or Royce Freeman. I shouldn’t have to though.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers @ IND ($10100 DK, $10800 FD)
Christian McCaffrey is basically a lock for 30 DFS points every week. You get what you pay for. The Colts have only given up six running back TDs all year, but they have given up 166 combo yards per game over the last three weeks. With a rookie QB under center, expect C-Mac to handle a larger than normal workload, including a ton of short receptions. Six of their last eight opponents have gotten seven or more RB receptions against Indy. That is well below Christian’s floor.
Chris Carson, Seahawks vs. ARI ($8500 DK, $8200 FD)
Speaking of RB receptions, Arizona has allowed double-digit receptions to opposing RBs in four of their last seven games. With no Rashaad Penny, Chris Carson will see most of the pass-catching opportunities this week. This is in addition to his rushing yardage. Over their last seven contests, Arizona is giving up just under 175 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. As long as Carson doesn’t drop the ball (literally), he will net most of that figure.
Devonta Freeman, Jaguars @ ATL ($6000 DK, $6200 FD)
Devonta Freeman is not the back he used to be. He still has value when the matchup is right. This week the matchup is so right, that it feels wrong. Freeman will do things to this group of slappies that are illegal in most states. Since Week 9, Slacksonville has given up 222 combo yards per game to opposing backs, to go along with ten TDs allowed. I’m always a little concerned about Freeman getting vultured on the score, but the yardage alone makes him a top-5 play this week.
Joe Mixon, Bengals @ MIA ($6600 DK, $7800 FD)
Joe Mixon is the only member of the Bengals that hasn’t given up yet. Since Andy Dalton’s return, only Derrick Henry has more rushing yards than Mixon. He did get added to the injured list on Thursday with a calf injury, so pay attention to his status as the game approaches. If he cannot go, Giovani Bernard will be a slate-winner.
Sleepers:
DeAndre Washington, Raiders @ LAC ($4000 DK, $5600 FD)
Speaking of slate-winners, DeAndre Washington gets the start for Oakland against a Chargers’ defense that has been bad at stopping RBs who catch passes. At this price, it will be hard to fade Washington. If you want some exposure to this game without being chalk, consider Jalen Richard instead.
Adrian Peterson, Redskins vs. NYG ($5000 DK, $6500 FD)
The New York Giants have allowed 31 RB receptions over the last four weeks. That isn’t exactly the strong suit for Adrian Peterson, but he does catch a few passes here and there and he has scored on the ground in three straight games. If Peterson somehow misses this game, Chris Thompson would be an A+ play.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | $9,300 | $9,000 |
| Julio Jones | $8,000 | $8,000 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,600 | $7,600 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,000 | $7,200 |
| DJ Moore | $6,900 | $6,600 |
| DeVante Parker | $6,800 | $6,900 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,700 | $7,700 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,600 | $6,800 |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,500 | $7,400 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $6,400 | $7,300 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,300 | $6,300 |
| Keenan Allen | $6,300 | $6,700 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,200 | $7,100 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,200 | $6,500 |
| Sterling Shepard | $6,100 | $6,300 |
| Zach Pascal | $6,100 | $6,600 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,000 | $6,900 |
| DK Metcalf | $5,900 | $6,300 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $5,800 | $6,700 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,800 | $6,300 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,700 | $6,100 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,600 | $5,900 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,500 | $6,000 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,500 | $6,500 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,400 | $6,000 |
| James Washington | $5,300 | $6,600 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,200 | $5,700 |
| Dede Westbrook | $5,100 | $5,700 |
| Mike Williams | $5,000 | $6,500 |
| Danny Amendola | $4,900 | $6,000 |
| Tyrell Williams | $4,900 | $5,600 |
| Golden Tate | $4,800 | $6,200 |
| Diontae Johnson | $4,700 | $5,700 |
| Nelson Agholor | $4,600 | $5,400 |
| Curtis Samuel | $4,500 | $6,000 |
| Russell Gage | $4,400 | $5,100 |
| Chris Conley | $4,300 | $5,800 |
| Marcus Johnson | $4,300 | $5,900 |
| Greg Ward | $4,200 | $5,700 |
| John Ross III | $4,200 | $5,200 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $4,200 | $5,700 |
| Randall Cobb | $4,100 | $5,300 |
| Corey Davis | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Steven Sims Jr. | $4,000 | $5,700 |
| Allen Hurns | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Albert Wilson | $3,800 | $5,400 |
| Seth Roberts | $3,800 | $5,100 |
| Damiere Byrd | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Tajae Sharpe | $3,700 | $4,700 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $3,600 | $5,400 |
| Keelan Cole | $3,600 | $5,400 |
| Tim Patrick | $3,600 | $5,400 |
| Demaryius Thomas | $3,500 | $4,800 |
| JJ Arcega-Whiteside | $3,500 | $5,100 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | $3,500 | $4,500 |
| Willie Snead IV | $3,400 | $4,600 |
| Vyncint Smith | $3,000 | $4,900 |
Weekly strategy – By spending up at QB and TE, I will be forced to spend down slightly at WR. Fortunately, there are some great values this week. Much like RB, I won’t argue with Michael Thomas or Julio Jones here. I just want to spend less. The high dollar guys I really like here are: Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Davante Parker, Courtland Sutton and Kenny Golladay. I hope to squeeze one of them into each of my lineups. Worst case scenario, I will use two of the following to tie up WR1 and WR2: Christian Kirk, DK Metcalf, one of the Giants, Michael Gallup, Marquise Brown, Mike Williams, Danny Amendola and James Washington. My WR3 will just be someone under $5K on DK and under $6K on FD. My favorite choices there are John Ross and Albert Wilson.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Michael Thomas, Saints @ TEN ($9300 DK, $9000 FD)
It doesn’t matter who he faces, Michael Thomas is approaching Christian McCaffrey level DFS trustworthiness. Thomas has topped 100 yards in eight of his last ten games, and he has eight or more receptions in all but one of those games. Tennessee has allowed nine WR1 TDs in their last seven games. Michael Thomas is a lock for at least 10-100-1, and 14-150-2 is not out of the question. If you can afford him, get him into your lineup.
Keenan Allen, Chargers vs. OAK ($6300 DK, $6700 FD)
Keenan Allen has been a PPR beast all season, but he has only scored in four games. Fortunately for Allen, two of those have come in the last four weeks. Over their last five meetings, Allen has averaged 7-79 against the Raiders with two scores. The yardage and receptions should be a lock, and I’d say he has a decent chance of scoring too.
Julio Jones, Falcons vs. JAX ($8000 DK, $8000 FD)
In addition to sucking against the run, Jacksonville has started to get sloppy at covering bigger outside WRs. I’m not sure that Julio Jones will have as big a game as he did last week, but without Calvin Ridley the opportunities will be there. Jones got 20 targets last week, the rest of the team got 18.
Amari Cooper, Cowboys @ PHI ($6700 DK, $7700 FD)
Amari Cooper has battled some injuries and now his QB has some injuries of his own. Nevertheless, this is Philadelphia, and they cannot stop most high school passing offenses. In the last three weeks, the Eagles have given up 5-130-1 to Terry McLaurin, 5-154-2 to Darius Slayton and 7-159-2 to Davante Parker. Cooper is a better receiver than any of them. Plus, Cooper may be low-owned coming off a bad performance which was stunted by Dak’s injury and shadow coverage by Jalen Ramsey.
Sleepers:
Darius Slayton, Giants @ WAS ($5500 DK, $6000 FD)
Speaking of Darius Slayton, the Giants’ receiver has seven scores in his last seven games. Not bad for a guy who is technically the third receiver in his offense. Washington has been hit or miss this year at covering WRs. This week they will have their hands full with all three WRs healthy for the Giants. Any of the threesome could be a worthy play, but Slayton is the hot hand.
John Ross, Bengals @ MIA ($4200 DK, $5200 FD)
So, you want a discount stack to place in your lineup to build around? Consider John Ross and Andy Dalton. Ross has three targets and two catches in each of the last two games since his return. Meanwhile, Miami has given up multiple WR Scores in ten different games. There is a fair amount of risk here, but the price is cheap, and the opportunity shines.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | $6,400 | $6,900 |
| Darren Waller | $6,100 | $6,500 |
| Mark Andrews | $5,900 | $6,500 |
| Jared Cook | $5,000 | $6,600 |
| Hunter Henry | $4,700 | $6,100 |
| Jack Doyle | $4,500 | $6,200 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,400 | $6,000 |
| Jacob Hollister | $4,200 | $5,700 |
| Dallas Goedert | $4,100 | $5,900 |
| Jason Witten | $4,000 | $5,800 |
| Greg Olsen | $3,900 | $4,900 |
| Jonnu Smith | $3,800 | $5,400 |
| Noah Fant | $3,700 | $5,900 |
| Mike Gesicki | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| David Njoku | $3,500 | $5,000 |
| Rhett Ellison | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| Kaden Smith | $3,200 | $5,100 |
| Tyler Eifert | $3,200 | $4,700 |
| Hayden Hurst | $3,100 | $5,100 |
| Ian Thomas | $3,100 | $5,100 |
| Vance McDonald | $3,100 | $5,000 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | $3,000 | $5,300 |
| Blake Jarwin | $2,900 | $5,300 |
Weekly strategy – Zach Ertz for the win…assuming you can afford him. If you can’t afford him, there are some cheaper pivots: Mark Andrews, Jacob Hollister, Hunter Henry or Noah Fant. Kaden Smith is the only punt play I’ll consider this week.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Zach Ertz, Eagles vs. DAL ($6400 DK, $6900 FD)
Zach Ertz remains the WR1, WR2, and WR3 for Philadelphia. This is a slate-breaker matchup against a Dallas secondary that has given up six or more receptions to opposing TEs eight times this year. This includes them allowing 21-218 to the position over the last two games. Ertz could get 20 targets in this game.
Mark Andrews, Ravens @ CLE ($5900 DK, $6500 FD)
The Browns haven’t been horrible at covering TEs. They have however given up seven TDs to the position. One of those TDs went to Mark Andrews back in Week 4. Andrews’ reception and yardage numbers have slipped in recent weeks, but he has scored five times in his last six games. If Andrews hauls in 4-40-1 this week, I will be happy. Especially, if he is part of my stack with Lamar Jackson.
Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. OAK ($4700 DK, $6100 FD)
Oakland has been almost as bad at covering TEs as Arizona has been. Eight times this year, the Raiders have given up 60 or more yards to the position. Plus, they have given up the second-most TDs to the position. Hunter Henry has been busy blocking of late and his target share has dipped. Still, you have to like his chances against this sagging defense. Henry has only faced Oakland four times in his career. He has averaged 4-53 over those games, scoring in three of them.
Jacob Hollister, Seahawks vs. ARI ($4200 DK, $5700 FD)
Jacob Hollister hasn’t done much since Week 10. Fortunately for him, he gets to face the Cardinals this week. Arizona has given up 15 TE scores and only three teams have failed to score against them. This includes a bunch of TEs that are crappier than Hollister.
Sleepers:
Noah Fant, Broncos vs. DET ($3700 DK, $5900 FD)
Noah Fant has quietly been the second-best receiving option for the Broncos this season. He doesn’t catch a ton of passes, but the ones he catches, he does a lot with. Meanwhile, Detroit has given up 16-138 to the position over the last two weeks.
Kaden Smith, Giants @ WAS ($3200 DK, $5100 FD)
No Evan Engram and no Rhett Ellison has meant plenty of Kaden Smith the last few weeks. He has been targeted 22 times over the last four games. Over the last five weeks, Washington is allowing an average of 6-78-1 to the TE position. All of that usage will be funneled through Smith this week.
I love these smaller slate game dates, so I decided to deliver a holiday present to all of my followers and readers. This weekend, you get two chances to line your holiday stocking with some greenbacks. So, get cracking on those lineups.
I love these smaller slate game dates, so I decided to deliver a holiday present to all of my followers and readers. This weekend, you get two chances to line your holiday stocking with some greenbacks. So, get cracking on those lineups.
Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Let us start with the most exciting game (from a fantasy perspective) on the docket. These two teams have the most electric offenses among the six teams playing today, so prepare to roster several players in this game.
The Bucs’ Jameis Winston is battling a thumb injury, but you wouldn’t have known it by watching the last two weeks. Winston is what he is, he will throw for more than 300 yards and 3 scores. He will also throw three interceptions. This sets him up as QB2 on the slate. Those numbers might take a slight dip with both of his Pro Bowl caliber WRs out this week. That won’t stop him from whipping the ball around willy-nilly. This week, Breshad Perriman will need another huge outing and Justin Watson will need to step up too. I love both of them and believe you need at least one of them in your lineup to have a chance. Either, Ronald Jones or Peyton Barber could be a stud this week. That is, only if the other wasn’t on the active roster. Since both will be active, they will eat into each other’s numbers. I prefer Jones, but neither is better than a FLEX here. Jameis has promised to target both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate frequently this week. Howard out-targeted Brate last week, but both are playable here. They have to be considered TE3 and TE4 respectively. I could easily see using one of them at FLEX in a Double-TE lineup. Ignore the Bucs’ defense.
Deshaun Watson is my QB1 on this slate. Tampa Bay has no chance of slowing down this offense (especially if Will Fuller is 100% this week). Of course, this means DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills are all elite plays. Hopkins is WR1 on the slate, and the other two are WR2/WR3 options. Carlos Hyde has a rough matchup, but he might be worth a pivot at FLEX. That said, I’d prefer to use Duke Johnson if I targeted a Houston RB this week. This is a great matchup for TEs, but Darren Fells has disappeared recently and is TD-dependent. Jordan Akins is also salary-relief at best. I’ll likely fade both of them. Houston’s defense could be a sneaky play despite the high scoring likelihood since Winston will make some mistakes.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots:
The Patriots typically have had Buffalo’s number. That said, Tom Brady may have his own issues with a seriously hardcore Bills’ defense. I really don’t see any way that I can rank Brady as better than QB4 on this slate (and that is giving him a boost because he is the GOAT). Sony Michel has the tools to move the ball against this defense, but his usage is frustrating. You have to consider him as a possible FLEX, but no more. James White is the best play for this offense. With Julian Edelman battling a ton of injuries (and possibly Tre’Davious White), expect Brady to target White double-digit times. With shady matchups elsewhere, White is no worse than RB2 on this slate. I also might consider vulture Rex Burkhead as a FLEX play. As I just mentioned, ignore the usual stud performer Edelman, but consider Mohamed Sanu as a WR3. Someone has to catch passes from Brady, and Sanu was the guy who got the bump in targets last week. Nkeal Harry, Phillip Dorsett and Jakobi Meyers are WR3/FLEX plays at best, but choosing which one to trust is asinine. The best TE on the Patriots is Rob Gronkowski, and he is retired. That should tell you all you need to know about Ben Watson and Matt LaCosse. Starting the Patriots’ defense is never a bad idea.
Josh Allen has a rough matchup, but he has a big arm and a speedy weapon in John Brown. The deep pass has been the best weapon against the Patriots in the last few weeks, so Allen has slight appeal, just not a lot. He also can do some damage with his legs, so a single GPP stack with him and Brown (and/or Cole Beasley) is worth the risk. As I mention, Brown is in play at WR3 despite the likely Stephon Gilmore coverage. Beasley is probably the safer play, and he can be rolled out at WR3 as more of a PPR play than a shot in the dark like Brown. You can beat the Patriots on the ground, so Devin Singletary is in play at RB2. Don’t stretch for Frank Gore though. Dawson Knox isn’t a strong play this week with so many great TE options. There is too much Foxboro magic to over-employ the Buffalo defense here, but give them a little run.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers:
This matchup has some potential for points but also has the potential to be a defensive snoozer. San Francisco has been “touchable” lately, but they aren’t being ravaged. Jared Goff could rise to QB3 on this slate. This is by no means a positive indictment of him, but a positive indictment of all the other defenses on this slate. Todd Gurley has re-emerged as a fantasy force, and San Fran can be beaten by receiving backs. With a lack of big-time RB talent to choose from on this slate, Gurley is certainly in RB1/2 consideration. I wouldn’t risk Malcolm Brown though in limited usage. Cooper Kupp has been adequate recently despite getting sporadic snap counts. I like him as a WR pivot, but you cannot trust him at his price as a regular option. Robert Woods has been the golden goose for this team recently. In the last two weeks, San Francisco has been torched by WR1s. This means that Woods should be a lock at WR1 or WR2 for you. Is Brandin Cooks still alive? I seriously don’t know. Josh Reynolds is a sneaky WR3 punt play if you need to save money. Tyler Higbee and George Kittle are options 1A and 1B at TE. I’m likely to use both in a Double-TE configuration. The Rams’ defense is good, and their price is super low. That is a combination that I adore.
Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid QB, but the Rams’ pass defense is elite. He will battle Brady for QB4 on the docket. You can pair him with Deebo Samuel or George Kittle, but Emmanuel Sanders did jack squat last week, and this week he faces Jalen Ramsey. Yuck! The Rams’ run defense is suspect. Raheem Mostert is a great RB1/RB2 option, but his split usage hurts him. Tevin Coleman is TD dependent at best and Matt Breida is reception-dependent. Neither is better than a deep FLEX play. If Breida misses the game due to one of his 573 injuries, bump Mostert up slightly. As I said above, ignore Sanders. Deebo Samuel could be an option at WR3, but don’t force him into your lineup. George Kittle was a target hog last week. Los Angeles is not very good at covering TEs, so he is basically a must start. At worst, toggle between him and Higbee. Jared Goff does have the turnover gene, so the Niners’ defense can be used here.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $7K for Deshaun Watson. $11.9K for James White and Raheem Mostert. $8.5K for DeAndre Hopkins. $6.2K for Robert Woods. $4.6K for Justin Watson. $9K for O.J. Howard and Tyler Higbee at TE and FLEX. $2.5K for the Rams’ defense.
At FD: $8.6K for Watson, $12.9K for White and Devin Singletary. $7.2K for Woods. $7.4K for Breshad Perriman. $6.1K for Will Fuller. $13.7K for George Kittle and Higbee at TE and FLEX. $3.5K for the Rams’ defense.
At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Watson, Jameis Winston at SF, White, Mostert, Fuller, Woods and TRIPLE-TE: Higbee, Kittle, Howard.
At Fanball (Classic): Watson, White, Mostert, Hopkins, Woods, Kittle, Cameron Brate, Duke Johnson, Rams’ Defense.
At Fantasy Draft: Watson, White, Gurley, Hopkins, Woods, Kittle, Mostert, Howard, Rams’ Defense.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | $7,000 | $8,600 |
| Jameis Winston | $6,900 | $8,400 |
| Jared Goff | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $5,500 | $7,900 |
| Josh Allen | $5,300 | $7,600 |
| Tom Brady | $5,200 | $7,400 |
Weekly strategy – Don’t get too crazy, just use Jameis Winston or Deshaun Watson. If you have to be weird, use Tom Brady or Josh Allen. That said, don’t be surprised when that strategy fails.
Pay to Play:
Deshaun Watson, Texans @ TB ($7000 DK, $8600 FD)
Tampa’s pass defense is so bad that even David Blough threw for more than 250 yards against them. Deshaun Watson should be good for 300-2 through the air and at least one score on the ground.
Stay Away:
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers vs. LAR ($5500 DK, $7900 FD)
Facing an elite defense like the Rams is not the optimal time for using Jimmy Garoppolo. He is coming off of a so-so game where he only targeted George Kittle. If I was Los Angeles, I would have Jalen Ramsey shadow Kittle. That isn’t going to happen, but it is what I would do.
Value Play:
Josh Allen, Bills @ NEP ($5300 DK, $7600 FD)
I don’t love this play, but Josh Allen is always a danger on the ground, and New England has had some issues with rushing QBs this year. Plus, Allen has a deep arm and a speed weapon in John Brown. New England has been susceptible to the deep bomb the last couple of weeks.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley II | $6,300 | $7,400 |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,100 | $7,100 |
| James White | $5,800 | $6,500 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| Carlos Hyde | $5,000 | $6,600 |
| Sony Michel | $4,600 | $6,100 |
| Ronald Jones II | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Duke Johnson | $4,100 | $5,400 |
| Peyton Barber | $3,900 | $5,400 |
| Matt Breida | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Tevin Coleman | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| Rex Burkhead | $3,600 | $5,800 |
| Malcolm Brown | $3,500 | $4,900 |
| Frank Gore | $3,400 | $5,000 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | $3,300 | $4,800 |
Weekly strategy – James White is the only must-start on the slate. RB2 is a choice between Todd Gurley, Devin Singletary and Raheem Mostert. I could see using two of them as well, with one at FLEX, assuming you don’t use Double-TE. Sony Michel, Duke Johnson and the Bucs’ backfield are the only other options slightly appealing.
Pay to Play:
James White, Patriots vs. BUF ($5800 DK, $6500 FD)
With Julian Edelman, hurt and covered by the dominant CBs of the Bills, James White will be the most frequent target of Tom Brady. Buffalo is beatable on the ground, and Bill Belichick only trusts White this time of year. So, expect him to get a solid share of the carries too.
Stay Away:
Carlos Hyde, Texans @ TB ($5000 DK, $6600 FD)
Based on volume alone, Carlos Hyde could have some value. That said, Tampa has given up some rushing TDs this year, but they have given up absurdly low rushing yardage per game. The only way Hyde hits 3x is with a pair of short TDs, and I think Deshaun will vulture those this week.
Value Play:
Duke Johnson, Texans @ TB ($4100 DK, $5400 FD)
Values are few and far between at the position this week. If you knew which TB running back would be the lead option, I’d recommend that. Tampa’s run defense is elite, but they have been beaten by pass-catching backs. Duke Johnson could play a sneaky role in what could be a pass-heavy game.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,500 | $8,700 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,400 | $8,400 |
| Cooper Kupp | $6,600 | $7,300 |
| Julian Edelman | $6,400 | $7,500 |
| Robert Woods | $6,200 | $7,200 |
| Breshad Perriman | $6,000 | $7,400 |
| Will Fuller V | $5,900 | $6,100 |
| John Brown | $5,700 | $6,600 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,100 | $6,200 |
| Cole Beasley | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Justin Watson | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Brandin Cooks | $4,300 | $5,700 |
| N’Keal Harry | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $3,600 | $5,100 |
| Josh Reynolds | $3,400 | $4,900 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $3,100 | $5,100 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| Keke Coutee | $3,000 | $5,400 |
Weekly strategy – DeAndre Hopkins and Robert Woods are options 1A and 1B here. I’ll try my darndest to fit both of them in. If not, I might use Will Fuller or Kenny Stills as a different Texans’ option. Cooper Kupp is also a possible pivot from Woods. You need to roster one of the Buccaneers’ pair of Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson. Watson is a lot cheaper, so he is easier to roll out at WR3. Others to consider at WR3: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Mohamed Sanu and Deebo Samuel.
Pay to Play:
Robert Woods, Rams @ SF ($6200 DK, $7200 FD)
I wanted to list DeAndre Hopkins here, but I trust Houston’s other WRs more than I trust the other Rams’ WRs. San Francisco has been crushed by WR1s the last two weeks and Robert Woods has been the primary beneficiary of Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks going MIA recently.
Stay Away:
Julian Edelman, Patriots vs. BUF ($6400 DK, $7500 FD)
Julian Edelman is battered, bruised and broken. Plus, he may see shadow coverage from Tre’Davious White. The rest of the Buffalo secondary is also elite, so escaping White won’t guarantee success. At this price, just don’t do it.
Value Play:
Justin Watson, Buccaneers vs. HOU ($4600 DK, $5700 FD)
Justin Watson was a popular sleeper last week, but Breshad Perriman got all the love behind Chris Godwin, Godwin is also out this week, so Watson will have to step up opposite Perriman. Both are great plays in what should be a shootout, but only Watson could be considered a value based on their prices.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | $6,500 | $7,400 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,000 | $6,300 |
| Gerald Everett | $4,000 | $5,300 |
| O.J. Howard | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| Cameron Brate | $3,500 | $5,000 |
| Darren Fells | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| Jordan Akins | $2,900 | $4,900 |
| Dawson Knox | $2,700 | $4,800 |
| Ben Watson | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Tyler Kroft | $2,600 | $4,500 |
| Matt LaCosse | $2,500 | $4,500 |
Weekly strategy – This is the slate for Double-TE or even Triple-TE. George Kittle and Tyler Higbee are elite plays and both Buccaneers’ tight ends are in play. Heck, even both Texans’ TEs could be used in a pinch.
Pay to Play:
George Kittle, Niners vs. LAR ($6500 DK, $7400 FD)
George Kittle was the only option that Jimmy Garoppolo looked at last week. 17 targets while the rest of the team saw 15 targets. That partly explains how he has accrued 70 yards and/or a score in seven of his last nine games. The Rams have been poor against TEs recently. The only thing that could hurt Kittle is if the Rams decide to shadow him with Jalen Ramsey.
Stay Away:
Gerald Everett, Rams @ SF ($4000 DK, $5300 FD)
There isn’t really a fair “Stay Away” candidate at a high price. Gerald Everett is unlikely to play due to injury, but if he does suit up, ignore him. Tyler Higbee has made him an expendable piece.
Value Play:
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers vs. HOU ($4000 DK, $5500 FD)
Both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate make great value options this week with all the injuries to the Buccaneers’ WR corps. In fact, Jameis Winston even came out and said that he would be peppering those two with targets. You want exposure to this game, so consider using Howard or Brate as part two of the Double-TE strategy or even as option three in the Triple-TE.
The Huddle presents another season of The Blitzed Podcast. In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL News, a look at their too early top 12 QBs and top 12 RBs for the 2020 season, and a double dose of DFS Pay to Plays, Stay Aways and Value Plays for the Saturday and Sunday slates.
The Huddle presents another season of The Blitzed Podcast. In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL News, a look at their too early top 12 QBs and top 12 RBs for the 2020 season, and a double dose of DFS Pay to Plays, Stay Aways and Value Plays for the Saturday and Sunday slates.
Let us leave our discussion of last week with the following thoughts: Arguably, the two best defenses in the NFC faced off and gave up a combined 94 points. Sometimes, studying stats and trends doesn’t matter, we are just going to see some team(s) go gonzo. If you rostered Drew Brees or Jimmy Garoppolo congrats, just know that that was not the optimal play.
Let us leave our discussion of last week with the following thoughts: Arguably, the two best defenses in the NFC faced off and gave up a combined 94 points. Sometimes, studying stats and trends doesn’t matter, we are just going to see some team(s) go gonzo. If you rostered Drew Brees or Jimmy Garoppolo congrats, just know that that was not the optimal play.
The Primetime Slate:
This is going to be a tricky week, as Indy is the only team on the docket that has a questionable defense. Sunday, Buffalo and Pittsburgh lock horns. Pittsburgh has held seven of the last ten QBs to under 200 passing yards, but they have given up a few TDs to the position. Making this even a shadier play for Josh Allen, only three teams all season have topped 10 rushing yards with their QBs against Pittsburgh. The only QB to have any success on the ground was Lamar Jackson and even he did lesser than his standard numbers. If you take Jackson’s rushing stats away, the Steelers are giving up six QB rushing yards per game. This doesn’t bode well for Allen, who needs those rushing numbers to boost him from mediocre QB2 level-play to 1QB-league playability. These trends should leave him on your bench. Devlin Hodges isn’t a great play either as Buffalo has held 10 of 13 teams to one or fewer passing scores. With Jaylen Samuels dinged up, expect James Conner to get a full complement of snaps in his first game Assuming that Conner can go, he moves into strong consideration as RB2 despite any potential rust. Mainly, because most of the other options on this slate are gross. Samuels, if he plays would be RB3 or RB4. Devin Singletary also needs to be strongly considered at RB2. Pittsburgh can be beaten on the ground, and with some rough options here, pairing Devin with Alvin Kamara is probably the safest pairing. Since I don’t like either QB, odds are that I won’t like their receivers either. Pittsburgh has given up two WR scores total over their last five games. That said, over that same stretch they have given up solid statistical days to WR1s. So, John Brown could post a reasonable line and might be a WR2 option. I’ll probably still fade him, but consider using Cole Beasley at WR2. There won’t be enough passing numbers to go around to make Robert Foster or Isaiah McKenzie anything more than a Showdown Slate lottery ticket. JuJu Smith-Schuster was on target to play this week, then he left practice early on Thursday and put him back on the wrong side of questionable. If he does play, he will look across the field and see Tre’Davious White smiling back at him. This is not optimal for Smith-Schuster. Even if White doesn’t get ahold of the Steelers’ play sheet, he might make it look like he has it. Plus, James Washington and Diontae Johnson would get better matchups. Still, neither screams play me. Diontae could be a sneaky WR3 here. If JuJu doesn’t play, then Johnson becomes an even stronger option based on volume, but Washington would be shadowed by White making him even less appealing. Arizona finally figured out how to stop a TE, concuss him. Vance McDonald is not likely to be ready for this one and Nick Vannett is just a guy. It is too bad, since Buffalo has actually allowed back-to-back strong games to opposing TEs. The Steelers have struggled against upper-echelon TEs all season. Dawson Knox is on the up-and-up, but he is not upper-echelon. I’ll place him at TE3 on this slate, with a chance at TE2 status, if Jared Cook cannot play. Choose one of these two teams as your defense. I am leaning Pittsburgh.
Unlike what they showed last week, the Saints’ defense is actually talented. They are stiff against both the pass and the run. Indianapolis is short-handed in their passing game. Still, Jacoby Brissett is the QB2 on this sloppy slate. Of course, you shouldn’t have to use him, because Drew Brees is far-and-away the best choice on this docket. The Colts are actually stingy against the run, but they do give up a ton of receptions to opposing RBs. This makes me feel comfortable trotting out Alvin Kamara despite his recent struggles. Latavius Murray is not used often in the passing game, but he still should produce enough in parallel usage alongside Kamara, to stay FLEX-worthy. Raheem Mostert, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette are the only RBs to top 100 total yards against the Saints this season. Marlon Mack returned and scored last week. This week he feels TD-dependent as well. He is RB3 at best on this slate, and if Jaylen Samuels and/or James Conner are active, he may fall all the way to RB5. Considering his price, I’m likely to fade Mack, but I may consider Nyheim Hines as a cheap FLEX. Marshon Lattimore will shut down Zach Pascal leaving Marcus Johnson as the only consideration outside for the Colts’ passing game. Johnson actually had a pretty good game last week. I think you seriously have to consider using him at WR3 here. T.Y. Hilton is questionable at best, and I wouldn’t trust him unless I see him fully practice on Friday or Saturday. If he plays, he would likely have to deal with Lattimore, making him unusable anyways. The only upside would be that Pascal would get a boost in value to WR2 consideration. Michael Thomas is the obvious WR1 on the slate. Don’t get cute, just play him. Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith both get some potential FLEX love, although I hate playing two WRs from the same team. I don’t have any reservations about stacking a QB-WR-TE though, so, if Jared Cook plays, I’ll use him as TE2 and possible Double-TE FLEX on this slate. Jack Doyle is actually my TE1, especially if Hilton doesn’t play. Also, if Cook doesn’t play, consider Josh Hill as a possible FLEX, and he makes a great Showdown slate play. This game should have more points, so avoid both these defenses.
The Main Slate:
Jameis Winston is the far-and-away best option this week (but he is also questionable). If he cannot go, there are several decent pivots including: Russell Wilson, Pat Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson. One of those things is not like the others. Tannehill could be the slate-winner, if you are ballsy enough to play him instead of one of the bigger names despite the similar price tags. Tom Brady at a reduced price is a possible value play, as are both QBs in the MIA-NYG tilt. That said, if I choose to punt, it will likely be with Gardner Minshew or Kyler Murray. Winston and the other top four all will run you right around 14%. Gardner, Murray and Eli Manning will run between 11% and 11.5% if you go that route.
Christian McCaffrey should be back in play against the Seahawks. It also helps that his price has finally dipped a bit. He is still five-figures, but he is usable. That said, I don’t think I need to use him this week. There are three amazing matchups with high-dollar backs: Chris Carson, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. My plan is simple, start two of them – perhaps even try to squeeze all three in. I’m most likely going to use two and then FLEX in from this list: Phillip Lindsay, James White, David Montgomery, Raheem Mostert and DeAndre Washington (my favorite assuming that Josh Jacobs doesn’t play). If Jacobs does play, then he joins the top three in RB1 consideration). If you need to save money, punt options could include: Adrian Peterson, Duke Johnson, Patrick Laird, Matt Breida and Chris Thompson. Two of the big three will run you 35% on DK and 30% on FD. Try to keep your FLEX under 10% here.
Kenny Golladay, Julian Edelman and Chris Godwin are my favorite top-dollar plays. Spending up at RB will limit me to just one of those three at WR. Edelman may be the wise choice because you can pivot to Danny Amendola, Breshad Perriman, or Justin Watson to get exposure to the other two offenses at a cheaper price at WR3. Even if I use Godwin or Golladay, I still may use the other’s mate at WR3. The other options that I like in that spot are: Dede Westbrook, Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Mohamed Sanu and perhaps one of the Eagles. WR2 is harder. I will choose one of the Niners, one of the Giants, A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk or Allen Hurns. Choosing one from each of those tiers should cost you no more than 41% on DK and 35% on FD. The 41% won’t work easily, so you are probably going to be forced to use two WR3 level choices on DK putting you at roughly 33%.
Spending so much at RB, I’ll likely pay less at TE. The only high-dollar TE that I love this week anyways is Zach Ertz. David Njoku and Dallas Goedert could be cheaper pivots if you choose to spend up here. I’m just not going to be spending big here when I can get so many good options on the cheap. Tyler Higbee is woefully underpriced on DK, but his FD price is just about right. Other bargains are: Jonnu Smith, Kaden Smith, Jason Witten, Darren Fells, O.J. Howard and Ian Thomas. There are even three potential punts: Logan Thomas, Jesse James and J.P. Holtz. Try to keep your DK cost under 7% and keep FD under 10%.
I’m still squished up against it trying to fit all the required positions under the cap. This means that I need to go super cheap at defense. If money wasn’t a factor, I’d go with the Patriots. I’d even be cool with the Vikings or the Buccaneers. In reality, I’ll be choosing from the Jaguars, Bears, Lions, Chargers and Cardinals. You will be probably forced to spend around 5% on DK and 6.5% on FD, and even then, you might not fit it all in. If you cannot get even the cheapest options in, cut slightly at FLEX, or WR2.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $6.9K for Jameis Winston (or Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson). $16K for Derrick Henry and Chris Carson. $4.7K for DeAndre Washington (if Josh Jacobs doesn’t play), otherwise $5.2K for Raheem Mostert. $7.1K for Julian Edelman. Two of: Dede Westbrook, Allen Hurns, Mike Williams, Darius Slayton, Justin Watson, Breshad Perriman and Danny Amendola for a combined $8.6K or less. $3.9K for Tyler Higbee. $2.3K for the Lions’ defense (yes, against my QB).
At FD: $8.2K for Jameis Winston (or Wilson or Watson). $25.3K total for Dalvin Cook, Henry and Carson. $7.7K for Julian Edelman. $9.9K total for Watson and Amendola. $5K or less for TE (leaning Jonnu Smith, Kaden Smith, J.P. Holtz or one of the Lions). $3.8K for the Buccaneers’ defense.
At Fanball (classic – includes Sun Night): Winston (or Watson), Cook, Henry, Carson, Watson, Amendola, Slayton, Higbee, and the Bills’ defense.
At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Jimmy Garoppolo, Eli Manning at SF, Henry, Carson, Chris Godwin, Slayton, Deebo Samuel, Ian Thomas, and D. Washington (or Mostert or James White) at FLEX.
At Fantasy Draft (includes Sun Night): Garoppolo, Henry, Cook, Samuel, Amendola, I. Thomas, Carson, D. Washington, and the Buccaneers’ defense.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $7,100 | $8,300 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,000 | $8,100 |
| Jameis Winston | $6,900 | $8,200 |
| Deshaun Watson | $6,800 | $8,200 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,500 | $7,600 |
| Baker Mayfield | $6,400 | $7,700 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $6,300 | $8,000 |
| Dak Prescott | $6,300 | $7,800 |
| Carson Wentz | $6,200 | $7,700 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | $6,200 | $7,300 |
| Jared Goff | $6,100 | $7,800 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $6,100 | $8,400 |
| Kirk Cousins | $6,000 | $7,900 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | $6,000 | $7,500 |
| Tom Brady | $6,000 | $7,600 |
| Matt Ryan | $5,900 | $7,600 |
| Matthew Stafford | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| Drew Lock | $5,700 | $7,400 |
| Daniel Jones | $5,600 | $7,300 |
| Derek Carr | $5,600 | $7,300 |
| Kyler Murray | $5,600 | $7,600 |
| Philip Rivers | $5,600 | $7,400 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $5,500 | $6,900 |
| Kyle Allen | $5,400 | $7,000 |
| David Blough | $5,300 | $7,300 |
| Eli Manning | $5,200 | $6,800 |
| Andy Dalton | $4,900 | $6,500 |
| Dwayne Haskins Jr. | $4,600 | $6,600 |
Weekly strategy – If Jameis Winston plays, I will do everything I can to fit him in my lineup. That said, I know with the RBs that I want, I may have to spend down here. That means I will probably end up using: Eli Manning, Kyler Murray or Gardner Minshew. Then comes the concern about Winston’s injury. If I can afford him, but he doesn’t play, then I could pivot to Pat Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson or even Ryan Tannehill. Know that if I use Murray, Manning or Minshew, I will stack their top WR with them.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers @ DET ($6900 DK, $8200 FD)
This is the ultimate injury watch. If Jameis Winston plays, he has the highest ceiling on the slate. With nine of his last eleven games over 300 yards passing (and two over 400 yards), Winston gets to face a very burnable Detroit defense. Dwayne Haskins is the only QB that has none posted a strong game against this secondary. 350-3 with 3 INTs is always the sweet spot for Winston.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ CAR ($7000 DK, $8100 FD)
Carolina has allowed six of their last nine opponents to throw for more than 300 yards. They haven’t allowed as many passing TDs, because teams just run the ball in against them with zero opposition. Wilson may be in play as a vulture for some rushing yards and possible scores, especially if Chris Carson’s fumblitis returns.
Pat Mahomes, Chiefs vs. DEN ($7100 DK, $8300 FD)
Denver’s defense has quietly fallen on hard times. Over their last four games, they have given up ten total TDs to opposing quarterbacks. Pat Mahomes’ numbers have been pedestrian since returning from injury, but at home versus a tilting secondary, he should be locked in for 300-3.
Deshaun Watson, Texans @ TEN ($6800 DK, $8200 FD)
Even when Deshaun Watson has a bad game, he still finishes out with a good fantasy line. He has especially fared well against Tennessee. In three career meetings, Watson has 803 passing yards, 138 rushing yards, and ten total TDs. Those numbers make him a great pivot play if Winston is unable to go. I’d feel even better if Will Fuller is able to go. If not feel free to stack Watson with DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills and/or Darren Fells.
Sleepers:
Gardner Minshew, Jaguars @ OAK ($5500 DK, $6900 FD)
When two rotten defenses face off, points can come in bunches. Gardner Minshew didn’t set the world on fire last week, but he was facing an elite pass defense. This week he faces a putrid pass defense. In fact, they are so bad, I feel dirty using the word “Defense”. If you ignore Ryan Finley’s ugly Week 11 performance in a windstorm, Oakland has allowed 27 total QB touchdowns over their other nine most recent games. At this price, Minshew is a great GPP play, and he makes an even better pair in SuperFlex.
Eli Manning, Giants vs. MIA ($5200 DK, $6800 FD)
This shapes as another game featuring two horrible defenses. Eli Manning looked spry last week, let us see if the veteran can continue to lobby for another contract next season. Only twice this year has Miami not allowed multiple passing TDs, and six different times they allowed three or more total QB scores. Eli has a safe floor of 250-2, but he could easily exceed that number if this turns into a battle of who is worse in coverage.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $10,000 | $10,400 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,900 | $8,500 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,500 | $9,400 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,900 | $8,000 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $7,800 | $8,500 |
| Saquon Barkley | $7,700 | $8,300 |
| Leonard Fournette | $7,600 | $7,700 |
| Chris Carson | $7,500 | $7,400 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,300 | $7,800 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,000 | $7,700 |
| Austin Ekeler | $6,700 | $7,200 |
| Melvin Gordon III | $6,500 | $7,400 |
| Kareem Hunt | $6,300 | $6,700 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,100 | $6,700 |
| Todd Gurley II | $6,000 | $7,600 |
| Miles Sanders | $5,900 | $6,800 |
| Devonta Freeman | $5,800 | $6,100 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $5,600 | $6,400 |
| David Montgomery | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| James White | $5,400 | $6,800 |
| Raheem Mostert | $5,200 | $7,500 |
| Sony Michel | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| Kenyan Drake | $5,000 | $6,200 |
| Jordan Howard | $4,900 | $6,900 |
| Damien Williams | $4,800 | $6,000 |
| Tarik Cohen | $4,800 | $5,700 |
| DeAndre Washington | $4,700 | $6,300 |
| Ronald Jones II | $4,600 | $5,800 |
| Carlos Hyde | $4,500 | $6,000 |
| David Johnson | $4,500 | $5,400 |
| Patrick Laird | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| Adrian Peterson | $4,400 | $6,300 |
| LeSean McCoy | $4,400 | $6,100 |
| Peyton Barber | $4,400 | $5,700 |
| Jamaal Williams | $4,200 | $5,400 |
| Malcolm Brown | $4,200 | $4,900 |
| Darwin Thompson | $4,100 | $5,400 |
| Duke Johnson | $4,100 | $5,700 |
| Matt Breida | $4,100 | $5,600 |
| Bo Scarbrough | $4,000 | $5,900 |
| Royce Freeman | $4,000 | $5,300 |
| Tevin Coleman | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Chris Thompson | $3,900 | $5,200 |
| J.D. McKissic | $3,300 | $4,900 |
| Ty Johnson | $3,000 | $4,900 |
Weekly strategy – There are three obvious plays this week: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry and Chris Carson. I will do everything I can to get two (if not all three of them) into my lineup card. In addition, if Josh Jacobs returns, he becomes a stud play too. If Jacobs doesn’t play, then DeAndre Washington makes the obvious cheaper alternative at FLEX. In reality, I will have some combo of these five players. The only other players that I will likely have any exposure to are: Phillip Lindsay, James White and Raheem Mostert. If you are desperate to save money consider one of the Redskins’ backs, Patrick Laird or Duke Johnson.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ LAC ($8900 DK, $8500 FD)
The Chargers aren’t awful against opposing RBs carrying the ball. What they have serious problems with, is stopping opposing RBs through the air. In six of their last eight games, Los Angeles has given up seven or more running back receptions. Dalvin Cook is already Christian McCaffrey-Lite when it comes to pass-catching skills. Against this defense, double-digit receptions are definitely in play, and any rushing yards and scores are just gravy.
Chris Carson, Seahawks @ CAR ($7500 DK, $7400 FD)
Carolina has given up an unbelievable 19 total RB scores over the last 8 games. Five of those have come just in the last two weeks. They’ve also given up 427 total yards to opposing backs over the last two. Chris Carson has no more Rashaad Penny looking over his shoulder. The only threat to Carson not posting a floor of 150-2, is the looming Russell Wilson vulture.
Derrick Henry, Titans vs. HOU ($8500 DK, $9400 FD)
Derrick Henry is nursing a minor hamstring injury which has me slightly concerned. That said, he has come out and declared himself ready to go for this weekend. With nine scores over his last five games, Henry needs to be in any lineup. I hope that the injury actually depresses his ownership numbers some. In their last four games, Houston has given up 781 total yards and eight total scores to opposing RBs. If Henry sits out, Dion Lewis could be fantasy gold at a very bargain basement price.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers vs. SEA ($10000 DK, $10400 FD)
Christian McCaffrey is always a good play no matter the matchup. Seattle has allowed six different teams to notch seven or more RB receptions, and four different teams have recorded multiple rushing TDs against them. McCaffrey should be active on the ground and through the air, and as usual he should approach 30 DFS points.
Sleepers:
DeAndre Washington, Raiders vs. JAX ($4700 DK, $6300 FD)
This comes down to whether Josh Jacobs plays. If Jacobs plays, he is a top-5 option this week. If Jacobs sits, DeAndre Washington gets to abuse the Jokes-on-ville run defense. Over their last five games, opposing RBs are averaging 229 total yards and two total TDs against these fixed house cats. My Siamese is fiercer at attacking my feet at night than Jacksonville is at stopping the run.
Raheem Mostert, Niners vs. ATL ($5200 DK, $7500 FD)
Raheem Mostert got the dreaded “he has earned it” vote of confidence from Kyle Shanahan. I hope this doesn’t mean Shanahanigans are in play. Raheem Mostert gets a great matchup with Atlanta this week, but also know this is a revenge game for Tevin Coleman. In Mostert’s defense, Coleman has done zip and pip the last two weeks, so the revenge game factor is the only thing working in his favor. Matt Breida could also eat into Mostert’s looks, but it ultimately comes down to who gets the targets this week. Atlanta has given up double-digit RB receptions in three of their last five games.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,000 | $8,600 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,700 | $8,400 |
| Davante Adams | $7,600 | $7,800 |
| Tyreek Hill | $7,500 | $7,900 |
| Stefon Diggs | $7,300 | $7,700 |
| Kenny Golladay | $7,200 | $7,900 |
| Julian Edelman | $7,100 | $7,700 |
| Julio Jones | $7,000 | $7,500 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,900 | $6,900 |
| Allen Robinson II | $6,800 | $8,000 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,700 | $7,400 |
| DJ Moore | $6,600 | $6,900 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $6,600 | $6,900 |
| Amari Cooper | $6,500 | $7,700 |
| Cooper Kupp | $6,500 | $7,600 |
| DeVante Parker | $6,400 | $6,900 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | $6,400 | $7,200 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,300 | $7,300 |
| Keenan Allen | $6,300 | $6,800 |
| DJ Chark Jr. | $6,200 | $6,300 |
| Robert Woods | $6,200 | $7,500 |
| DK Metcalf | $6,100 | $6,300 |
| A.J. Brown | $6,000 | $6,200 |
| Courtland Sutton | $5,900 | $7,000 |
| Golden Tate | $5,900 | $6,300 |
| A.J. Green | $5,800 | $6,600 |
| Deebo Samuel | $5,800 | $6,500 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| Will Fuller V | $5,600 | $6,600 |
| Christian Kirk | $5,500 | $6,100 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,500 | $6,300 |
| Sterling Shepard | $5,400 | $5,900 |
| Terry McLaurin | $5,300 | $6,000 |
| Anthony Miller | $5,100 | $6,300 |
| Russell Gage | $5,000 | $5,400 |
| Sammy Watkins | $4,900 | $5,400 |
| Tyrell Williams | $4,800 | $5,600 |
| Allen Hurns | $4,700 | $5,800 |
| Darius Slayton | $4,700 | $6,300 |
| Dede Westbrook | $4,600 | $6,000 |
| Mike Williams | $4,600 | $6,200 |
| Brandin Cooks | $4,500 | $6,300 |
| Breshad Perriman | $4,500 | $6,400 |
| Curtis Samuel | $4,400 | $5,600 |
| Randall Cobb | $4,400 | $5,400 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | $4,300 | $5,700 |
| Mohamed Sanu | $4,300 | $5,800 |
| Taylor Gabriel | $4,200 | $5,400 |
| Danny Amendola | $4,100 | $5,400 |
| Kenny Stills | $4,100 | $5,000 |
| Hunter Renfrow | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| Mecole Hardman | $4,000 | $5,600 |
| Nelson Agholor | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| John Ross III | $3,900 | $4,900 |
| Paul Richardson Jr. | $3,900 | $5,000 |
| Allen Lazard | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Corey Davis | $3,800 | $5,000 |
| Olabisi Johnson | $3,800 | $5,200 |
| Adam Humphries | $3,700 | $5,400 |
| Josh Gordon | $3,700 | $4,800 |
| Justin Watson | $3,700 | $4,500 |
| Phillip Dorsett II | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| Albert Wilson | $3,500 | $4,600 |
| N’Keal Harry | $3,500 | $5,300 |
| Geronimo Allison | $3,400 | $4,600 |
| Keke Coutee | $3,400 | $5,400 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $3,300 | $5,100 |
| JJ Arcega-Whiteside | $3,300 | $5,500 |
| Greg Ward | $3,000 | $4,900 |
Weekly strategy – Chris Godwin could be in a big-money spot if Jameis Winston can suit up. Still, you have to worry a bit about Jameis’ injury and the presence of Darius Slay. I might get access to this game with Breshad Perriman or Justin Watson instead. They both make great WR3 options. I also could run it back with Kenny Golladay or Danny Amendola. The other big-dollar player I will have a lot of shares of is, Julian Edelman. Edelman paired with Watson and Amendola gets me maximum exposure and saves me money too. That will be my favorite threesome. The only other WR1 options I will consider are Emmanuel Sanders or Davante Parker (if he plays). If I roster Gardner Minshew or Eli Manning, I would likely pair them with D.J. Chark (if he plays), Dede Westbrook, Darius Slayton or Golden Tate at WR2. You can also possibly save some money using one of the backup Dolphins, one of the Cardinals, or one of the Texans backups in the WR3 range.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers @ DET ($7700 DK, $8400 FD)
Will Darius Slay be able to slow down Chris Godwin. Not having Mike Evans, may make this point moot. Godwin could be targeted 20 times this week, and based on volume alone he has the highest ceiling of any player this week. Of course, this all assumes that Jameis Winston plays. Considering his price, Godwin may be too expensive for me. At worst, I’ll take a flyer on Justin Watson or Breshad Perriman.
Kenny Golladay, Lions vs. TB ($7200 DK, $7900 FD)
David Blough is not a good QB. That said, he does have enough brains to know to throw the ball up to freakish WR, Kenny Golladay. Blough has connected with Golladay for TDs in back-to-back games. He is a lock to score again here against a Tampa defense that has been destroyed by larger WR1s all season. If you are really feeling ballsy consider stacking these two.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans @ TEN ($8000 DK, $8600 FD)
DeAndre Hopkins did, what I said he would last week…burn Chris Harris. With Will Fuller out, Hopkins was the primary target of Deshaun Watson and he notched his seventh receiving TD. Fuller is questionable at best for this week, leaving Hopkins as a great option once again. Hopkins has seven career TDs against Tennessee over twelve games. Plus, he is averaging just under 100 yards per game against them.
Julian Edelman, Patriots @ CIN ($7100 DK, $7700 FD)
Tom Brady really only trusts Julian Edelman and James White in the passing game. Those two have nearly as many targets this year as the rest of the team combined. Edelman should be able to post another double-digit target, nearly double-digit reception game against a Bengals’ team that has struggled all year with inside receivers.
Sleepers:
Danny Amendola, Lions vs. TB ($4100 DK, $5400 FD)
Am I seriously recommending two David Blough pass-catchers??? Yes, Yes, I am. Tampa is that bad against the pass. Plus, they have been even worse against secondary receivers, than they have against WR1s. Nine of the last ten WR2s to face Tampa have scored TDs against them. Danny Amendola leads Detroit in targets over the last two weeks, and with no Marvin Jones, that number can only go up. The Blough-Golladay-Amendola triple stack could win a GPP.
Dede Westbrook, Jaguars @ OAK ($4600 DK, $6000 FD)
Dede Westbrook’s value this week is tied to whether D.J. Chark plays. Dede will be a top-10 WR (if Chark is out), or a top-20 WR (if Chark is in). Either way, he belongs in your lineup against an Oakland defense that is lacking in talent in the secondary. Westbrook has been bothered a bit by a shoulder injury, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a garbage time hero with Uncle Rico back at QB.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $6,500 | $7,300 |
| George Kittle | $6,200 | $7,200 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,000 | $6,700 |
| Darren Waller | $5,500 | $6,200 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,200 | $6,400 |
| Austin Hooper | $5,000 | $6,200 |
| Evan Engram | $4,900 | $6,400 |
| Dallas Goedert | $4,300 | $5,700 |
| David Njoku | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Noah Fant | $4,100 | $5,700 |
| Gerald Everett | $4,000 | $5,800 |
| Mike Gesicki | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Greg Olsen | $3,900 | $4,900 |
| Tyler Higbee | $3,900 | $5,700 |
| Jacob Hollister | $3,800 | $5,700 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $3,800 | $4,700 |
| Jason Witten | $3,700 | $5,600 |
| Jimmy Graham | $3,600 | $5,400 |
| Kaden Smith | $3,600 | $4,700 |
| Jonnu Smith | $3,500 | $4,900 |
| O.J. Howard | $3,500 | $5,700 |
| Cameron Brate | $3,400 | $5,200 |
| Darren Fells | $3,200 | $4,700 |
| Ian Thomas | $3,100 | $5,300 |
| Tyler Eifert | $2,800 | $4,500 |
| Anthony Firkser | $2,700 | $5,000 |
| Logan Thomas | $2,600 | $4,700 |
| J.P. Holtz | $2,500 | $4,800 |
| Jesse James | $2,500 | $4,300 |
Weekly strategy – I really can’t afford to spend much here this week. Zach Ertz is the only expensive guy I like anyways. I love the idea of riding the hot hand in Tyler Higbee, but while his DK price is nice, his FD price may be more than I can afford. I will likely go dumpster diving for one of: Jonnu Smith, Kaden Smith, Darren Fells, Ian Thomas, one of the Lions or J.P. Holtz.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Zach Ertz, Eagles @ WAS ($6000 DK, $6700 FD)
Zach Ertz is the WR1 right now for Philadelphia. Last week, they were literally down to their last actual WR being healthy – AAF castoff Greg Ward. J.J. Ar”theee”ga-Whiteside may return this week, but Carson Wentz has zero faith in him to catch a pass. Ertz has nine or more catches and 90 or more yards in four of his last five games. He also has four TDs over that stretch. Meanwhile, Washington is back to their old ways of ignoring the TE position. Over their last four games, the Redskins have allowed a total of 21-272-4 to the position.
Darren Waller, Raiders vs. JAX ($5500 DK, $6200 FD)
Only two teams have given up more TE touchdowns than Jacksonville. This includes a pair last week versus the Chargers. Darren Waller no longer has Foster Moreau to steal his end zone looks. Waller’s numbers have been huge since Hunter Renfrow went down to injury. If Renfrow returns, it might ding Waller’s number slightly, but his price is still nice.
George Kittle, Niners vs. ATL ($6200 DK, $7200 FD)
Seven times this season Atlanta has allowed opposing TEs to top the 50-yard receiving mark. This includes 10-155-1 over the last two weeks. George Kittle channeled his inner Juggernaut last week and willed the Niners to a victory. This isn’t a bad matchup, I’m mainly afraid that he will be over-owned coming off that sick run. Plus, Atlanta can be beaten so many other ways too.
Tyler Higbee, Rams @ DAL ($3900 DK, $5700 FD)
Tyler Higbee has turned into in-his-prime Antonio Gates over the last couple weeks without Gerald Everett. Higbee has averaged 7-112 the last two weeks, and he scored in Week 13. Dallas has been destroyed by every quality TE they have faced this year. Of course, they even gave up 7-92 to the unholy duo of J.P. Holtz and Jesper Horsted last week. At DK, you can’t fade him at this price. The FD price is a little more appropriate, but still a deal.
Sleepers:
David Njoku, Browns @ ARI ($4200 DK, $5500 FD)
David Njoku gets the Arizona Free Space this week. Last week, Arizona finally figured out how to shut down an opposing TE…concuss him. As a Njoku dynasty league owner, I hope he can avoid a concussion this week. If he manages to accomplish this 5-50-1 is a lock.
Ian Thomas, Panthers vs. SEA ($3100 DK, $5300 FD)
Seattle is channeling their inner-Cardinals having given up 33-303-2 to opposing TEs over the last three weeks. With this recent run of futility, the Seahawks are up to seven games with seven or more receptions by opposing TEs on the year. Ian Thomas stepped in for Greg Olsen last week and posted a very strong 5-57-1. I expect a bigger line here.
