The Tigers are a touchdown favorite to win the Music City Bowl, but could this game be closer than oddsmakers expect?
The 6-6 Auburn Tigers return to action for the first time since losing the Iron Bowl later this week when they take on the 7-5 Maryland Terrapins in the Music City Bowl on December 30.
Auburn finished the regular season with back-to-back losses but managed bowl eligibility in the first season under new head coach [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag].
On the other side, Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland had an up-and-down season in the Big 10, winning 7 games in 12 tries.
The all-time leading passer in Big 10 history has opted out of this game, giving Auburn a significant edge according to oddsmakers. The Tigers are currently a full touchdown favorite on BetMGM.
ESPN FPI believes this game should be much closer, as Hugh Freeze’s squad has just a 52.4% chance to win according to the model.
Will the tale of the tape show us this game will be a Dixieland Delight for Auburn fans, or will Maryland fans be singing the Victory song on Broadway after the Music City Bowl?
As always we’ll start with the quarterbacks.
Tigers quarterback [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] initial season on the Plains was much like a Sky Dog at 2 AM. The junior was a bit disappointing, but ultimately got the job done for the most part.
Thorne finished the regular season with 1,671 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions as Auburn’s QB1(a).
Hugh Freeze’s QB1(b), [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag], has joined thousands of other players in the transfer portal, leaving Thorne with the keys to the Honda Accord that is the Auburn offense.
With Ashford all but gone and incoming four-star recruit Walker White cooking in the background, Thorne has one final chance in game action to prove he can lead the Tigers into 2024.
As for the team up in Maryland, senior sensation Taulia Tagovailoa has chosen to opt out of this game, leaving sophomore quarterback [autotag]Billy Edwards Jr.[/autotag] and freshmen [autotag]Cameron Edge[/autotag] as the lone signal-callers on the Terps roster.
Both players combined for just 13 passing attempts this season although Edwards Jr. was used as a goal line quarterback, most notably rushing for 3 touchdowns against No. 1 ranked Michigan.
Maryland’s passing offense was explosive this season but the loss of Tagovailoa gives the edge to Thorne and the Tigers.
The skill positions across the offense are a different story. Auburn holds the edge at running back thanks to the electrifying [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag] but the wide receiver gap is larger than Old Line State’s obsession with Old Bay.
Maryland often employs three-reciever sets with [autotag]Jeshaun Jones[/autotag], [autotag]Tai Felton[/autotag], and [autotag]Kaden Pranther[/autotag]. Those three combined for nearly 500 more receiving yards than Auburn quarterback [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] had in passing yards this season.
The Terrapins fourth target, tight end Corey Dyches, would have paced all Auburn pass-catchers as well.
Auburn tight end Rivaldo Fairweather had a solid season but the edge clearly goes to Maryland, especially considering the Tigers will be without [autotag]Ja’Varrius Johnson[/autotag] in this one.
Auburn’s defense is clearly the better unit on that side of the ball, but defensive coordinator [autotag]Ron Roberts[/autotag] has some work ahead of him due to opt outs.
Cornerbacks [autotag]D.J. James[/autotag] and [autotag]Nehemiah Pritchett[/autotag] as well as defensive lineman [autotag]Marcus Harris[/autotag] won’t be availbile for this one, leaving the 21-ranked defense according to ESPN FPI shorthanded in Nashville.
James and Harris were arguably Auburn’s two best players on the defensive side of the ball this season. It helps that linebacker [autotag]Jalen McLeod[/autotag] and cornerback [autotag]Keionte Scott[/autotag] are staying on the Plains and will be playing, but the loss of Harris, James, and Pritchett will be felt.
Maryland’s defense on the other hand isn’t great but it’s not anemic either. The Terps were solid all year long, but did give up an average of over 30 points per game in losses this season.
Head coach [autotag]Mike Locksley[/autotag] isn’t dealing with any major opt-outs on that side of the ball, making the gap between these two teams closer than the stats say.
Still, Auburn gets the edge here.
There is a reason ESPN FPI has these two teams ranked next to each other in overall ranking. While the loss of Taulia Tagovailoa gives Auburn an edge in this game, the Music City Bowl could very well come down to the wire.
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