The Buffalo Bills (10-6) and Houston Texans (10-6) kick off Wild Card Weekend Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. We analyze the Bills-Texans odds and sports betting lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Bills at Texans: Wild Card Round preview, betting trends and notes
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- The Bills return to the playoffs for the second time in three years after a 17-year postseason hiatus. They haven’t won a playoff game since 1995.
- The Texans won their fourth AFC South title in five years but they’re looking to win just their second playoff game in that span.
- The two sides last met Oct. 14, 2018, with the Texans winning 20-13 at home.
- Houston ranked 14th in the NFL with 23.6 points per game and 13th with 362.0 total yards of offense per game. Buffalo was 23rd in points per game (19.6) and 24th in yards per game (330.2).
- The Bills had the No. 2 defense in the NFL with 16.2 PPG allowed per game. They ranked third in yards allowed per game (298.3). The Texans rank 19th in PPG allowed (24.1) and 28th in YPG allowed (388.3).
- Both teams produced one 1,000-yard receiver in Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (1,165) and Bills WR John Brown (1,060). No Bills running back topped 775 yards, while Texans RB Carlos Hyde rushed for 1,070 yards.
- The Bills had a turnover differential of plus-4 to the Texans’ neutral rating.
- Buffalo finished the regular season with 44 sacks to Houston’s 31. The Texans gave up more sacks (49-40).
Bills at Texans: Key injuries
Bills CB Levi Wallace (ankle) is considered day-to-day.
Texans WR Will Fuller (groin) is expected to play. DL J.J. Watt (pectoral) is aiming to return from the Reserve/Injured list either this week or next.
Bills at Texans: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Texans 21, Bills 15
Moneyline (?)
The Bills (+130) have the better defense, but the TEXANS (-154) have the more balanced offense and will be inspired in front of a home crowd desperate for a postseason win after so much failure. The return of Watt hangs huge in this one. He’ll be needed to help contain Bills QB Josh Allen, who has 510 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground this year.
The Texans went 5-3 at home while the Bills were 6-2 on the road. Week 17 was a glorified bye week for both sides, and they both lost.
Against the Spread (?)
Get better value on the TEXANS (-2.5, -115) by backing them to win by at least a field goal. Houston was 7-8-1 against the spread overall while Buffalo was 9-5-2. The Texans were just 2-6 ATS at home and the Bills were a league-best 6-0-2 ATS on the road.
The trends can be thrown out in the playoffs, especially with such a small gap.
Over/Under (?)
Take the UNDER 42.5 (-110). The Bills have the stronger defense while the Texans will be extra motivated if Watt is able to line up along the defensive line. It’s also the first career playoff game for Allen under center and some early contact by the Texans’ pass rush could force some costly mistakes.
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