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The surprising Buffalo Bills (10-4) head into Gillette Stadium for a big rematch with the host New England Patriots (11-3) in what will play a huge role in deciding the AFC East. The game is Saturday, with kickoff scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Bills-Patriots odds and betting lines, providing actionable betting tips and picks around this key Week 16 matchup.
Bills at Patriots: Week 16 preview, betting trends and notes
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- New England beat Cincinnati 34-13 last week, despite QB Tom Brady throwing for just 128 yards. It was his lowest passing total of the season and his completion rate was a mediocre 51.7%, which was his fourth consecutive game with sub-53% passing.
- The Bills handled the Pittsburgh Steelers 17-10 last weekend, which was their fourth win in their last five games.
- The Patriots won 16-10 in Buffalo earlier this year, but it was hardly convincing and Bills QB Josh Allen was knocked out of the game. It was New England’s sixth consecutive win over Buffalo.
- The Bills have beat the Patriots just twice in their last 10 meetings. The good news for Buffalo is both wins came on the road; the last was a 16-0 win Oct. 2, 2016.
Bills at Patriots: Key injuries
Patriots WR Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) hasn’t been at 100% for weeks. Edelman was limited Tuesday, but he’ll be there Saturday if he has to crawl. CB Jason McCourty (groin) and DL Danny Shelton (shoulder) were also limited Tuesday.
Bills DT Corey Liuget (knee) was limited Tuesday, while OT Ty Nsekhe (ankle) didn’t go. Both will be monitored this week.
Bills at Patriots: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:40 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Patriots 15, Bills 13
Moneyline (?)
Winning in Gillette Stadium is difficult for any visitor, especially young quarterbacks. Since Week 3 of 2000, only two quarterbacks (Daunte Culpepper and Patrick Mahomes) under 25 years old have won a road game vs. New England. Allen is 23.
Allen hit just 46.4% of his passes and threw three interceptions vs. New England earlier this year. The PATRIOTS (-295) are larger favorites than I would have predicted; feeling them in the -180 range. The Pats are the straight-up pick, although Buffalo (+230) provides a nicer payday for those anticipating a handing off of the torch. Buffalo is close, just not there yet…
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on New England profits $3.39 with a victory. That same bet on Buffalo returns $23 profit with an upset.
Against the Spread (?)
The spread has BUFFALO (+6.5, -110) written all over it; the hook (half point) makes it even sweeter.
New England’s offense, despite last week’s point total (there was a defensive score in there, too), stalls too often. They really miss Gronk. The Patriots are 3-3-0 at home ATS, 8-6-0 overall. Simply put, this will be close. The Bills are 9-4-1 ATS this year, 6-0-1 on the road. Hit this hard; a much closer line come Saturday won’t shock.
Over/Under (?)
The 37.5-point line is among the lowest of the week, paying -110 on both sides. Buffalo is 1-6-0 vs. the O/U this year on the road (3-11-0 overall); New England is 2-4-0 vs. O/U at home (5-9-0 overall). Score extra profit here; a $10 UNDER (-110) wager profits $9.09 with both teams combining for 37 points or less, which they will.
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Ryan’s NFL Picks: 32-16
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