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The Buffalo Bills (6-3) travel to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., for an AFC East tilt with the Miami Dolphins (2-7). Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. We analyze the Bills-Dolphins sports betting odds and lines, with NFL betting picks and tips for the Week 11 matchup.
Bills-Dolphins: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes
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- The Bills are coming off a loss in Cleveland in Week 10, while the Dolphins surprised the Colts in Indianapolis last week.
- Buffalo topped Miami 31-21 on Oct. 20 in Western New York, although the Dolphins did cover.
- The Bills are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight against AFC foes, while the Dolphins are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their past four vs. AFC.
- Buffalo has posted a 4-0-1 ATS in the past five road games, but is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight on the road against teams with a losing home mark.
- The Buffalo defense ranks third in total yards allowed (304.2), passing yards allowed (188.7) and points allowed (16.7) per game.
- The Dolphins rank 31st in scoring (13.2 points per game), but they are averaging 18.7 PPG across the past four.
- Miami enters on a 5-0 ATS streak, too.
Bills at Dolphins: Key injuries
Bills: DE Jerry Hughes (groin) did not practice Friday and is considered questionable, while TE Dawson Knox (knee) practiced in full Friday and is off the injury report.
Dolphins: DE Taco Charlton (elbow), S Reshad Jones (chest), LB Raekwon McMillan (knee) and DE Avery Moss (ankle) are questionable, while CB Ken Webster (ankle) is out.
Bills at Dolphins: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 1 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Bills 21, Dolphins 17
Moneyline (?)
The Bills (-295) should be able to ease by the Dolphins in South Florida, but a few things concern me about this game. One, the Bills will be playing in the heat and humidity of Miami, although it won’t be blazing hot. And, the Dolphins (+240) suddenly have a belief in themselves after two straight wins against the Jets and Colts.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Bills to win outright returns a $3.40 profit.
Against the Spread (?)
The DOLPHINS (+6.5, -110) were the laughingstock of the league earlier this season, getting their doors blown off in two straight games to open the season. However, they’re 5-0 ATS across the past five and look like an NFL-caliber team again with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. The Bills (-6.5, -110) are a risky play on the road against a team which covered against them in Buffalo in October.
Over/Under (?)
The UNDER 40.5 (-106) is the way to go, although I’d go super light on this one. Miami’s defense is still not a juggernaut, and the Bills are much stronger running the football than slinging it around. As such, running teams equal under results.
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