The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) host the Buffalo Bills (7-5) Sunday for their Week 14 meeting at Raymond James Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bills vs. Buccaneers odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Buffalo has alternated between winning and losing over the past eight games (3-4-1 ATS) with the latest being a 14-10 home loss to the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 13.
The Bills are 6-5-1 ATS and 5-7 O/U but have played the second-easiest schedule, according to Football Outsiders.
Tampa Bay handled business on the road against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13 with a 30-17 victory, winning and covering for the third straight game. The Bucs are 6-6 ATS and 6-6 O/U with the 22nd-toughest schedule, per Football Outsiders.
Tom Brady is 32-3 overall in his career vs. the Bills with a 70 TD:25 INT ratio and a 97.9 QB Rating. Since Buffalo hired head coach Sean McDermott in 2017, Brady is 6-0 overall but with only a 4 TD:5 INT ratio and an 80.2 QB Rating vs. the Bills.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 14 picks and predictions
Bills at Buccaneers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bills +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Buccaneers -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills +3.5 (-120) | Buccaneers -3.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Bills at Buccaneers key injuries
Bills
- LG Jon Feliciano (calf) questionable
- LB A.J. Klein (health and safety protocols) questionable
- DT Star Lotulelei (toe) questionable
- CB Tre’Davious White (knee) IR-out
Buccaneers
- WR Antonio Brown (suspended) out
- LG Ali Marpet (abdomen) questionable
- C Ryan Jensen (ankle) questionable
- DT Vita Vea (knee) questionable
- DT William Gholston (knee) questionable
- DB Jordan Whitehead (calf) questionable
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Bills at Buccaneers odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bills 31, Buccaneers 27
Money line
“SPRINKLE” on the BILLS (+135) for a small wager because Buffalo plus the points is the right side in this game.
This is an all-in game for the Bills who are currently the third and final AFC Wild Card seed but need to fend off several challengers for that spot.
Buffalo’s path to victory is to abandon its weak running game, which won’t do much against Tampa’s vaunted rush defense and have QB Josh Allen pick apart a beatable Bucs secondary.
A couple of Tampa’s early opponents proved if your offensive line can hold up in pass protection then their quarterback can have success in the air.
The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford were able to throw on the Bucs. Also, in Week 4, the Patriots’ Mac Jones dinked and dunked his way down the field all game vs. Tampa and New England nearly upset the Bucs.
Pro Football Focus gives Buffalo’s offensive line the pass blocking edge in its matchup with Tampa’s defensive line. Allen should have time to throw and the Bills can control the pace of this game.
Again, if it’s either/or, go with Buffalo plus the points, but I “LEAN” to the BILLS (+135) winning this one outright.
Against the spread
BET BILLS +3.5 (-120) heavier than or instead of Buffalo’s money line. Everyone is betting the Bucs in this spot, yet this line hasn’t budged off the opener.
Furthermore, this is the lowest Buffalo’s stock has been all year. The Bills were expected to coast to an AFC East crown and are now fighting for a postseason berth. Tampa Bay is going to coast to an NFC South title and Brady is the frontrunner in the NFL MVP race.
But, the preseason line for this game was the Bucs -4. How could Tampa be cheaper now than in the preseason when Buffalo’s stock was at its highest price? What I’m getting at is the Bucs -3.5 (-108) feels too good to be true and perhaps this is a trap game for Tampa.
More importantly, despite their inconsistent performance, the Bills have higher expected points added and yards per play differentials and are better on third-down.
BET BILLS +3.5 (-120) as the best bet in this game.
Over/Under
PASS with a “lean” to the Over 54.5 (-105) because the Bucs score nearly 40 points per game at home and I think the Bills’ offense can get some big plays in the passing game vs. Tampa’s defense.
However, a vast majority of the market is hammering the Over and I don’t have a strong enough grasp on the total to comfortably follow the herd.
Also see: All Week 14 odds and lines
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