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The PGA Tour returns to North America this week for the Mayakoba Golf Classic at El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico. The course measures 6,987 yards and plays as a par 71 under tournament conditions.
Courtesy of historical data from Fantasy National, the stats best associated with success at this venue are:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Opportunities Gained
- Greens in Regulation Gained
My model looks at the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field.
Mayakoba Golf Classic: Tee times | Fantasy power rankings
Field update: Rickie Fowler withdraws due to sickness
Mayakoba Golf Classic – Tier 1
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Viktor Hovland +2000
Hovland, 22, is tied with Jason Day, Matt Kuchar and Tony Finau as the tournament favorite, according to the sportsbooks. He is ranked 97th by the Official World Golf Ranking and is still looking for his first career win after turning pro in the summer. Hovland leads the field in each of the four key stats.
Emiliano Grillo +3300
Grillo is a course horse. He finished 15th last year, T-9 in 2018 and T-10 in 2017. He’s coming off a T-30 in a much stronger field at the Zozo Championship in Japan, and he placed T-26 at The CJ Cup the week before. He ranks second to Hovland in most key stats and shares the lead in SG: Approach.
Mayakoba Golf Classic – Tier 2
Chez Reavie +5000
Reavie participated in all three events the PGA Tour just played in Asia. His best result was a T-46 at The CJ Cup in South Korea. The 33rd-ranked golfer by the OWGR ranks sixth by the stat model and is in the top five of the field in SG: Ball Striking, SG: Approach and Opportunities Gained.
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Kyle Stanley +8000
Stanley plummeted down the OWGR last season while missing the cut in 10 of 25 events and picking up just one top-10 finish with a T-8 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He was ranked as high as 26th at the conclusion of the 2018 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
Mayakoba Golf Classic – Longshots
Charley Hoffman +10000
Hoffman was the 2015 champion at El Camaleon. This number is too great for a winner from just five years ago as a $10 bet returns a $1,000 profit. He hasn’t made the cut in his last four appearances at this event, but he finished T-36 at The CJ Cup and certainly has experience on the course, even with the poor recent results.
Keith Mitchell +12500
Mitchell ranks just 73rd by the stat model, but he’s an excellent value as he has typically been priced much lower than this in more competitive fields. He made the cut here in each of his last two tries.
Get some action on this tournament by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.
Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
| Jason Day | 20/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 20/1 |
| Tony Finau | 20/1 |
| Viktor Hovland | 20/1 |
| Billy Horschel | 22/1 |
| Charles Howell III | 28/1 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 28/1 |
| Abraham Ancer | 30/1 |
| Denny McCarthy | 33/1 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 33/1 |
| Russell Knox | 33/1 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 33/1 |
| Kevin Kisner | 35/1 |
| Aaron Wise | 40/1 |
| Cameron Champ | 40/1 |
| Harris English | 40/1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 40/1 |
| Lanto Griffin | 40/1 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 50/1 |
| Chez Reavie | 50/1 |
| Danny Lee | 50/1 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 50/1 |
| Harold Varner III | 50/1 |
| J.T. Poston | 50/1 |
| Pat Perez | 50/1 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 55/1 |
| Brian Gay | 60/1 |
| Brian Harman | 60/1 |
| Beau Hossler | 66/1 |
| Brice Garnett | 66/1 |
| Cameron Tringale | 66/1 |
| Graeme McDowell | 66/1 |
| Harry Higgs | 66/1 |
| Kevin Streelman | 66/1 |
| Nick Taylor | 66/1 |
| Scott Piercy | 66/1 |
| Sebastián Muñoz | 66/1 |
| Xinjun Zhang | 66/1 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 80/1 |
| Kevin Stanley | 80/1 |
| Mark Hubbard | 80/1 |
| Martin Laird | 80/1 |
| Ryan Armour | 80/1 |
| Scott Harrington | 80/1 |
| Si Woo Kim | 80/1 |
| Whyndham Clark | 80/1 |
| Zach Johnson | 80/1 |
| Austin Cook | 90/1 |
| Brian Stuard | 90/1 |
| Doc Redman | 90/1 |
| Kramer Hickok | 90/1 |
| Luke List | 90/1 |
| Nick Watney | 90/1 |
| Sam Ryder | 90/1 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 90/1 |
| Adam Schenk | 100/1 |
| Brendon Todd | 100/1 |
| Charley Hoffman | 100/1 |
| Fabián Gómez | 100/1 |
| Hank Lebioda | 100/1 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 100/1 |
| Matt Jones | 100/1 |
| Roger Sloan | 100/1 |
| Scott Stallings | 100/1 |
| Straka Straka | 100/1 |
| Shawn Stefani | 100/1 |
| Talor Gooch | 100/1 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 125/1 |
| Adam Long | 125/1 |
| Bo Hoag | 125/1 |
| Brandon Wu | 125/1 |
| Brendan Steele | 125/1 |
| C.T. Pan | 125/1 |
| Calum Hill | 125/1 |
| David Hearn | 125/1 |
| J.J. Spaun | 125/1 |
| James Hahn | 125/1 |
| Jiel Dahmen | 125/1 |
| Keith Mitchell | 125/1 |
| Kevin Chappell | 125/1 |
| Maverick McNealy | 125/1 |
| Patton Kizzire | 125/1 |
| Peter Malnati | 125/1 |
| Robert Streb | 125/1 |
| Tyler Duncan | 125/1 |
| Andrew Landry | 150/1 |
| Henrik Norlander | 150/1 |
| Jason Dufner | 150/1 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 150/1 |
| Luke Donald | 150/1 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 150/1 |
| Robby Shelton | 150/1 |
| Scott Brown | 150/1 |
| Wes Roach | 150/1 |
| Zac Blair | 150/1 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 175/1 |
| Chris Kirk | 200/1 |
| Hudson Swafford | 200/1 |
| Mac Hughes | 200/1 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 200/1 |
| Rafael Campos | 200/1 |
| Rhein Gibson | 200/1 |
| Roberto Diaz | 200/1 |
| Rylan Brehm | 200/1 |
| Chis Baker | 250/1 |
| Chris Stroud | 250/1 |
| Graham DeLaet | 250/1 |
| José de Jesús Rodriguez | 250/1 |
| Michael Gligic | 250/1 |
| Sebastian Cappelen | 250/1 |
| Ben Martin | 300/1 |
| Ben Taylor | 300/1 |
| Chase Seiffert | 300/1 |
| Jim Herman | 300/1 |
| Mark Anderson | 300/1 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 300/1 |
| Nelson Ledesma | 400/1 |
| Sebastián Vazquez | 400/1 |
| Will Gordon | 400/1 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 500/1 |
| D.A. Points | 500/1 |
| Davis Love III | 500/1 |
| Kevin Stadler | 500/1 |
| Michael Kim | 500/1 |
| Alvaro Ortiz | 1000/1 |
| Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra | 2500/1 |
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