With just two weeks left in the season, only eight teams have been eliminated from potentially making the playoffs and only one AFC team (Kansas City) has locked down a playoff spot. A lot will change this week and these are our picks to help take you to the pay window to start 2022 off with a bang.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Dec. 29, at 7:45 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 17
Atlanta Falcons (+650) at Buffalo Bills (-1100)
The Bills are massive favorites (13.5 points at -103 Falcons, -117 Bills). But, they’re favorites for a reason. When Buffalo wins, it tends to win big. All nine of their wins are by 12 points or more and eight of them are by 15 or more. I hate laying this many points, but this is what Buffalo does. When they win, they win big. Take the Bills and lay the 13.5 points (-117).
Miami Dolphins (+145) at Tennessee Titans (-180)
The Dolphins are the hottest team in the league, having won seven straight, but are still underdogs to the Titans (3.5 points at -117 Dolphins, -103 Titans). Despite winning for two months, I still believe the Titans are a better team and can get the job done at home while they look over their shoulder at the hard-charging Indianapolis Colts. Take the Titans and lay the 3.5 points (-103).
Los Angeles Rams (-190) at Baltimore Ravens (+155)
The Ravens defense has been ravaged by injury and the team is limping down the stretch. The Rams can exploit that weakness, which is why the Over/Under is relatively high (46.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). With Lamar Jackson expected back, the Ravens will likely have to get into a back and forth with the Rams to keep up, which should have both teams taking chances with their foot on the gas. Take the Over (-112).
Philadelphia Eagles (-175) at Washington Football Team (+140)
The Eagles have a penchant for beating up on teams with losing records. All eight of their wins have come against teams with records below .500, including Washington by 10 points two weeks ago. The Eagles aren’t getting much respect on the betting line (3.5 points at +100 Eagles, -120 Washington). Washington has lost three straight and have looked awful down the stretch. Getting the hotter team at even money to lay 3-and-a-hook is too tempting to pass up. Take the Eagles and lay the 3.5 points (+100).
Kansas City Chiefs (-230) at Cincinnati Bengals (+180)
This could be a playoff rematch at some points and the Bengals are a 5.5-point home underdog. However, the number that impresses me is the one that may be the most difficult to hit. The Over/Under is huge (49.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). Both offenses have the firepower to do damage and, if one team gets down by 10 points, they could be passing on every play. Take the Over (-108).
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-700) at New York Jets (+470)
I want nothing to do with the Jets and neither do those setting the line. The Bucs are huge favorites (13.5 points at -105 Buccaneers, -115 Jets). Even with that massive number and the Buccaneers missing some of their top offensive weapons. I’m not convinced the Jets are going to score more than 10 points. That should be enough to hit a big number. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 13.5 points (-105).
Las Vegas Raiders (+200) at Indianapolis Colts (-250)
Both teams have turned into running teams, which explains the middle of the road Over/Under (44.5 points at -110 for both the Over and Under). If the Raiders are winning, Josh Jacobs may rush 25 times. If the Colts are winning, Jonathan Taylor may rush 30 times. If the game is close, both might happen. Take the Under (-110).
Jacksonville Jaguars (+750) at New England Patriots (-1400)
I won’t bet on the Jaguars, and I’m shocked the Patriots are a 14.5-point favorite (and you have to bet more on the Pats than the Jags). That only leaves the Over/Under (42.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under). I’m not convinced Jacksonville can score more than 10 points, so New England would have to score 33 points in that scenario. I don’t see that happening, either. Take the Under (-112).
New York Giants (+210) at Chicago Bears (-270)
There isn’t going to be a lot of scoring in this game, but the Giants offense is so pathetic that the Bears are a solid favorite (5.5 points at -103 Giants, -117 Bears). Those numbers are indicative that those setting the line think it is too low. I agree. Take the Bears and lay the 5.5 points (-117).
Houston Texans (+520) at San Francisco 49ers (-800)
San Francisco can become the third NFC West team to punch its playoff ticket with a win. I’m not a fan of the points spread that so strongly favors the 49ers (12.5 points at -112 Texans, -108 49ers). However, the Texans are a hot mess despite an upset win over the Chargers last week, and I don’t see lightning striking twice. Take the 49ers and lay the 12.5 points (-108).
Denver Broncos (+225) at Los Angeles Chargers (-250)
Two teams that play completely different styles. The Chargers defense is so awful almost all their games over the last three months have been in the 50 points scored range. Denver is just the opposite, having games with 30 or so points scored consistently. However, I’m no fan of Drew Lock, so while I think the Chargers are a bit too big a favorite (6.5 points at -108 Broncos, -112 Chargers), I see L.A. doing its part to score points and the Broncos not able to keep pace. Take the Chargers and lay the 6.5 points (-112).
Detroit Lions (+260) at Seattle Seahawks (-340)
Despite having the talent, the Seattle offense has sputtered almost all season. The Lions don’t have dominant weapons on offense, which is why their record is so bad. The Over/Under is low (42.5 points at -110 for both), but it’s low for a reason. This game screams 23-17. Take the Under (-110).
Arizona Cardinals (+180) at Dallas Cowboys (-230)
After a 7-0 start, the Cardinals have lost five of their last eight games, while the Cowboys are winners of four straight. Dallas has been established as a prohibitive favorite (5.5 points at -110 for both teams). While I think that is too many, the Cowboys are the most complete team in the NFC, but this is a point or two too high for my blood. Take the Cardinals plus the 3.5 points (-110).
Carolina Panthers (+250) at New Orleans Saints (-320)
There are certain numbers I have never been able to accept. One of them is when an Over/Under is too high or too low. Anything under 40 points in my view is too low. Sure, there are plenty of games each week that don’t see 40 points scored, but it doesn’t take much to hit a number too low. The Over/Under here is obscenely low (38.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). While both teams are capable hitting the Under, I can’t take the bait on this one. Take the Over (-105).
Minnesota Vikings (+220) at Green Bay Packers (-280)
The Vikings beat the Packers in Minnesota, but this is team on the verge of collapse. Minnesota’s defense has been brutal most of the season, which is why the Over/Under (46.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under) is relatively high, but not too high. I see the Packers scoring 30 points, and the Vikings should be able to cover the other 17 needed. Take the Over (-115).
Cleveland Browns (-175) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+140)
The Steelers have struggled this season, but they’ve been a different team at home. In their last six games at Heinz Field, they’re 5-0-1. While that isn’t enough to have me take them on the moneyline, I am willing to take the points they’re getting as a home underdog (3.5 points at +102 Browns, -125 Steelers). Pittsburgh has been a frustrated team to figure out, but the home record says something. Take the Steelers plus the 3.5 points (-125).
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