(Editor’s note: This post originally published at Sportsbook Wire, part of the USA TODAY Network.)
In a flyweight title main event, champion Deiveson Figueiredo and Alex Perez meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Figueiredo (19-1) puts his belt on the line against Perez (24-5) in the final bout of the evening. “Deus da Guerra” plucked the strap from Joseph Benavidez on Feb. 29 with a second-round KO/TKO. He then topped Benevidez in a rematch on July 18 with a first-round submission. Three straight fights have finished inside the distance for the Brazilian fighter, and five of the past seven haven’t needed the judges to get involved.
The beauty of Figueiredo is his versatility, as he is a strong fighter going toe-to-toe, but he can also get nasty on the canvas if he needs to be. He tries to lull his opponents to sleep before catching them with a powerful shot when they let their guard down. He holds a three-inch reach advantage over Perez, which is important to remember as he uses those long arms to try and deliver the death blow in this match.
Perez has won three straight fights since a loss to Benavidez at The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale on Nov. 30, 2018. However, while Figueiredo has defeated Benavidez twice, Perez has done something the champ hasn’t done. He picked up a win over Jussier Formiga by way of KO/TKO in Round 1 at UFC 250. Formiga is the only fighter to ever defeat Figueiredo. Four of Perez’s past five fights have finished inside the distance, with two KO/TKO wins, a KO/TKO loss and a submission victory.
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Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:50 a.m. ET.
Figueiredo (-286) is heavily favored to push past the American Perez (+230) on the 2-way line, but you cannot risk nearly three times your potential return.
Instead, look to FIGUEIREDO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-167) for a much better value. This one is not expected to go the distance by the books, as “No (-385): Will the fight go the distance?” is super expensive. You cannot play that, but look to UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-209) for a safe play, and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-139) for a better value with a little more risk.
In addition, play FIGUEIREDO IN ROUND 2 (+400) and FIGUEIREDO IN ROUND 3 (+750) for the win in a two-round block. You will lose one end, but if he wins in either Round 2 or Round 3, you’ll be in the black quite a bit.
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Also see:
- UFC 255 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Burning questions heading into UFC 255 (MMA Junkie)
- More UFC/MMA coverage from MMA Junkie
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