We went through our four favorite prop bets ahead of Super Bowl LIV, but a year-after-year favorite prop is ‘who will score the first touchdown.’

The wager gives the feeling that the bettor has some kind of advantage if they have intimate knowledge of the team. However, Super Bowls mean teams pull out all the stops, so regular season trends go out the window and any player is liable to score a touchdown.

We went through the Bet MGM props and ranked on a confidence scale of 1-10 how much we like each player to be the game’s first touchdown scorer. 1 means we do not like that bet. 10 means we love the bet.

Raheem Mostert +600

Mostert has become the 49ers’ workhorse back, especially with Tevin Coleman working through a dislocated shoulder and Matt Breida essentially out of the rotation. He can rip off a long touchdown run or work in near the goal line.

Confidence: 9

George Kittle +850

Kittle has five touchdown catches this year and none since Week 16. His lack of pass-catching productivity in the playoffs is a little scary, and he’s one player the Chiefs will ensure doesn’t beat them in the red zone.

Confidence: 3

Matt Breida +1100

Breida has essentially fallen out of the running back rotation. He might see a few carries if Coleman is limited, but it’s hard to imagine he’s the first 49er to find the end zone.

Confidence: 1

Tevin Coleman +1100

These odds must’ve been borne from uncertainty over whether Coleman would play. He’s supposed to be a full go, which increases the likelihood he’s the first to punch one in. Coleman may be the guy in a goal line situation too, and the value here ticks up the confidence a little bit.

Confidence: 6

Deebo Samuel +1300

There are a bunch of scenarios where Samuel scores the first touchdown. Whether it’s on a run, quick throw and run, or deep ball, San Francisco may look to get their explosive receiver going early against a Chiefs defense that’ll likely be focused on stopping the run.

Confidence: 7

Emmanuel Sanders +1300

The last time Sanders caught a touchdown was his 75-yarder against the Saints. He has the trust of Garoppolo, but he hasn’t been much of a threat to score touchdowns. Perhaps the 49ers get him in a matchup they like, but the other two receivers are probably the better bet.

Confidence: 5

Kendrick Bourne +1800

All Bourne does is catch first downs and touchdowns. Of his 34 catches in the regular season and postseason, 26 have gone for first downs or touchdowns. While he has the lowest odds of all the 49ers’ pass catchers, he might be the best bet.

Confidence: 8

49ers defense/special teams +2100

The Chiefs don’t turn the ball over a lot. These odds aren’t quite long enough to make it worth a look.

Confidence: 1

Jeff Wilson Jr. +2500

If Coleman was out, this would have way more confidence points. Wilson probably won’t be active, so a bet here would be a bet that Breida is inactive and Wilson is playing.

Confidence: 1

Kyle Juszczyk +4200

Juszczyk hasn’t had a catch in two games, and his two receptions prior to that went for 49 and 23 yards. There’s a world where he leaks out for a free run down the field off play action and rumbles in for a score the way he did in Kansas City last year. The +4200 odds make this very interesting.

Confidence: 6

Jimmy Garoppolo +5000

A quarterback sneak feels like the only way this happens. If Garoppolo gets flushed out and has a running lane for the end zone, he’s more likely to try to extend the play and find an open receiver than to run it in.

Confidence: 4

Richie James +6000

James is an intriguing player because he’s so explosive, but he just doesn’t get enough offensive snaps to warrant a real look here. He’s more liable to score on a kick or punt return early in the game than on a reception or handoff. That’s probably not something worth banking on.

Confidence: 2

Ross Dwelley +9500

This is the kind of thing that happens in a Super Bowl, where the 49ers run a play action look near the goal line where Dwelley leaks out and catches a touchdown. This is a fun idea at +9500, so it gets additional confidence points.

Confidence: 3

Levine Toilolo +10000

Toilolo is in the same boat as Dwelley. It’s a fun idea if a bettor is looking for something obscure to root for.

Confidence: 3

Dante Pettis +10000

Pettis probably won’t play a snap.

Confidence: 1

Jordan Matthews +10000

Matthews probably won’t even be active.

Confidence: 1

This year’s picks went much better than last year’s. We finished with a winning record regardless of the Super Bowl outcome, but it’s impossible to do picks all year and not grab the biggest one of all.

To the Super Bowl pick!

Championship round record: 1-1

Postseason record: 6-4

Regular-season record: 132-121

Overall record: 138-125

Point spreads were provided by Bet MGM. (HOME TEAM in all caps).

Super Bowl: KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. San Francisco

How the Chiefs win

It’s hard to imagine Kansas City wants to get in a defensive struggle. The key for them will be getting out to a fast start and making the 49ers put away their run game. While San Francisco can throw it if they need to, it’s certainly the preferred option for the Chiefs with Chris Jones and Frank Clark on the defensive line to wreak havoc on a suddenly one-dimensional 49ers team.

For their offense, it all falls on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. His ability to extend plays and find open receivers when plays get off schedule is paramount to beating this 49ers defense, which thrives on its pass rush. If Mahomes can mitigate that and get the ball to his playmakers, Kansas City is impossible to stop. Mix in a couple of screens and quick throws to the boundary and the Chiefs should be able to light up the scoreboard while relying on its defense to come up with a couple stops.

How the 49ers win 

Not hitting the panic button if Kansas City gets up a couple scores early is vital. They have to trust their defense to get their arms around the Chiefs offense and still limit them to 30 or so points. That’ll start with the pass rush getting Mahomes on the ground a couple times and not letting them get ahead of the sticks where the threat of running back Damien Williams still looms. If the secondary doesn’t allow receivers to get in behind them for free runs down the field, the defense should be able to limit Kansas City to a reasonable point total.

On offense, Jimmy Garoppolo has to shine. His ability to make the Chiefs pay for selling out to stop the run is going to be the difference in whether the 49ers can keep up with Kansas City. If he can, he has playmakers like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle who can create yards after the catch. Completing those throws and softening up the defense to open up the run game can make the 49ers one of the most prolific offenses in the league, and at that point it may not matter how well their defense plays.

Pick: 49ers (+1.5)

Prediction: 49ers 38, Chiefs 34